2023 Forecast Update for August…

Monday 8/7/23. Market Monday: The Week Ahead

My Prediction

Nothing shows on the chart that’s alarming. I show the S&P 500 index on the daily scale.

I drew two up-sloping trendlines along the peaks and valleys. What the resulting channel shows is that price bounces between the two lines.

Going forward, if the trend continues, you’ll see the index bounce off the lower trendline at A and bounce up to B. However, given the weakness in the markets, we could see it breakout downward from the channel.

I don’t think that’s going to happen. Rather, I expect the retrace to finish and then a new upward move resume.

A Brief Look Back

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

Monday: Up 100.24 points.

Tuesday: Up 71.15 points.

Wednesday: Down 348.16 points.

Thursday: Down 66.63 points.

Friday: Down 150.27 points.

For the Week…

The Dow industrials were down 393.67 points or 1.1%.

The Nasdaq composite was down 407.42 points or 2.8%.

The S&P 500 index was down 104.2 points or 2.3%.

Year to Date…

Dow Industrials

     1.7% down from the high of 35,679.13 on 08/01/2023.

     11.6% up from the low of 31,429.82 on 03/15/2023.

Nasdaq

     3.7% down from the high of 14,446.55 on 07/19/2023.

     35.5% up from the low of 10,265.04 on 01/06/2023.

S&P 500

     2.8% down from the high of 4,607.07 on 07/27/2023.

     18.0% up from the low of 3,794.33 on 01/03/2023.

Options Expiration

No options expire this week.

Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, “Take a
two-dimensional approach.” He offers these tips.

• Seekinger doesn’t look at the range of S2 to R2 as support and resistance levels. Rather, he considers them oversold (S) and overbought (R) areas.
• S2 to R2 range of values across daily, weekly, and monthly periods: If two values are close together then they lend more significance to the area.
• If the market trends on day 1, the odds rise tremendously that the market will be range bound between daily S1 and daily R1 the next day.
• In a quiet market when traders are waiting for an important earnings announcement or economic report, look for daily R1 and S1 levels to hold and for the market to return to the daily pivot.
• A move outside of daily R1 or S1 usually does not mean a breakout.
• The odds suggest that the entire week’s price action will remain between weekly R2 and S2.
• Avoid going long when the market moves above weekly R2 (it’s overbought) and avoid going short when price moves below weekly S2 (oversold).
• Consider going short at weekly R1 or long at weekly S1 with a profit objective of the weekly pivot.
• Consider going long at weekly S2 or short at weekly R2 with a profit objective of weekly S1 or R1, respectively.

Here are the formulas:

Pivot point: P = (H + L + C)/3

First resistance level: R1 = (2 * P) – L

First support level: S1 = (2 * P) – H)

Second resistance level: R2 = P + (R1 – S1)

Second support level: S2 = P – (R1 – S1)

H = high price , L=low price, C=closing price

Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season is either underway or should be starting soon. The sessions could be more volatile.

Here’s a symbol list of 167 chart and candlestick patterns (13 “investment grade” candle patterns) found in today’s securities using my version of Patternz:
AYI, AEIS, AES, APD, ALRM, AA, AEP, AXP, AFG, AMN, AAPL, ACGL, ADM, ARW, ADP, AVNT, BAX, BECN, BBY, BOOT, BAH, BRC, BRKR, BBW, CBT, CNC, CHKP, CI, CMCO, ED, COP, COST, COTY, CRH, CCRN, CMI, FANG, DDS, DSGR, ^DJT, ^DJI, D, DRQ, EBAY, EOG, EXPD, FICO, FARO, FAST, FTNT, FTV, IT, GILD, GPRO, GGG, HAYN, HELE, HSY, HUBG, HUN, IIIN, ISRG, JBLU, KBH, KFRC, LAMR, LEN, LMT, LOW, MANH, MRO, MCHX, MKTX, MRK, MS, MLI, MYGN, NBR, NOV, NTAP, NEWR, NKE, NOVT, OXY, OMCL, ASGN, ORCL, OUT, OMI, PANW, PKE, PDCO, PTEN, PAYX, PCTY, PYPL, PXD, PPL, PINC, PFG, PG, PGR, QTWO, QCOM, RGA, ROP, ^GSPC, CRM, SLB, SAIC, SEIC, NOW, SKX, SPLK, SPSC, TECH, TFX, TXT, TJX, TSCO, SLCA, UNH, VMI, VEEV, VRSN, WRB, WMT, WAT, WSC, IEZ, IHE, DDM, QTEC, FXL, IYZ, IGV, IXC, IEO, IHI, EWO, EWI, EWM, EWY, TUR, DBA, PXJ, SSO, ROBO, XRT, SPY, USO, MGK, VONG. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

The below industries were the best (rank 1) or worst performing of those I follow.

— Thomas Bulkowski

Friday 8/4/23. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

$ $ $

Here’s a symbol list of 146 chart and candlestick patterns (13 “investment grade” candle patterns) found in today’s securities using my version of Patternz:
MMM, ABT, ACIW, ADTN, AMWD, AMN, APA, AAPL, ACGL, ARW, ATO, BSET, BAX, BERY, BKNG, BRKR, CNC, CDAY, CHKP, CHD, CLX, ED, COTY, CCRN, CW, FANG, DDS, DFS, EBAY, EVH, EXPI, EZPW, FFIV, FARO, FE, FORM, FWRD, GILD, GFF, GES, HQY, HL, HUM, IDA, ISRG, JKHY, JBLU, KFRC, KMB, LAMR, LANC, LOW, MTSI, MCHX, MKTX, MLM, MTRN, MDC, MRK, MCO, MUR, NOV, NCR, NEWR, NI, NOVT, OGE, ASGN, ON, OTEX, ORCL, OUT, PYPL, PEN, PETS, PXD, PFG, QCOM, RRC, REGN, ROST, RGLD, CRM, SMG, SRE, SO, LUV, TECH, TDOC, TFX, TEVA, TXT, TTD, SLCA, UIS, UNM, VMI, VECO, VEEV, V, VMC, WRB, WMB, WOLF, ITA, IYM, IYC, IEZ, IYH, ILF, SLV, IHI, EWK, EWH, EWI, EWJ, EWM, EWW, EZA, EWY, EWD, EWL, EWT, THD, DBA, PBE, PEJ, PXJ, XAR, VHT, VAW. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

The following patterns were found manually, not using Patternz. Mr. Bulkowski has excluded any securities he owns from appearing in the list. However, he may add any of the securities listed to his portfolio at any time, just as you can.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

For details about the chart patterns, click here.

— Thomas Bulkowski

Thursday 8/3/23. Intraday Market Direction: Nasdaq

Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:

     The prediction of the Nasdaq closing higher has been right 261/461 or 56.6% of the time.

     The prediction of the Nasdaq closing lower has been right 72/152 or 47.4% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

$ $ $

I show a picture of bitcoin (BTC-USD) on the daily scale.

There’s not much I can say about the chart because nothing really much happened.

I drew trendlines which I show in red, along price movement. What strikes me is the slope of the lines is similar.

What happens next? My guess is the coin will move higher but I can’t point to any reason for that except a gut feel.

$ $ $

Here’s a symbol list of 145 chart and candlestick patterns (13 “investment grade” candle patterns) found in today’s securities using my version of Patternz:
DDD, MMM, ABT, ACIW, AMD, AFL, AKAM, ALB, ALKS, AYX, DOX, ANIK, AMAT, ACGL, AWI, AGO, AVA, AXS, BCPC, BSET, BAX, BERY, BBY, BIG, BKNG, BG, CNC, CI, CLNE, CNO, CGNX, CTS, DFS, DRQ, EBAY, EME, EMR, EL, FICO, FIS, FE, FNV, FDP, GME, GILD, GFS, GL, GPRO, HLIT, HON, HWM, HUM, IDXX, ITW, IIIN, JBLU, KFRC, LANC, LOW, MRK, MGEE, MU, MSFT, MS, NCR, NJR, NEWR, NI, NOVT, NUS, OMCL, ASGN, ORCL, PKE, PXD, PFG, PG, PGR, RGS, RGA, RLI, RHI, RGLD, SMG, SEIC, SCI, SPSC, TECH, TFX, TER, TEVA, TXN, UHAL, SLCA, WRB, WSO, WMB, WWW, IAI, IYC, FXI, BOTZ, IEV, MXI, IXN, ILF, SLV, IHI, EWA, EWO, EWK, EWZ, EWC, EEM, EWQ, EWG, EWH, EWI, EWJ, EWM, EWW, EPP, EWS, EZA, EWY, EWP, EWD, EWT, EWU, IBB, PBE, PEJ, ROBO, XLY, GLD, UNG. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day’s high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences),
the area might act as support or resistance.

— Thomas Bulkowski

Wednesday 8/2/23. Forecast 2023 Update

Here’s the updated 2023 forecast, presented in slider format.

$ $ $

Here’s a symbol list of 130 chart and candlestick patterns (13 “investment grade” candle patterns) found in today’s securities using my version of Patternz:
DDD, MMM, AXDX, AES, ATSG, AYX, DOX, AMED, AME, AMN, ANIK, AMAT, ACGL, AWI, ARW, AVY, BAX, BMRN, BRC, BFH, BCO, BBW, CPB, CNC, CNP, CDAY, CHS, CI, CLNE, CGNX, CMCO, CONN, CXW, CR, CMI, DHR, DRQ, EBAY, EMR, EG, GPS, IT, GNW, GILD, GPRO, GFF, HLIT, HSY, HOLX, HON, HOV, HURC, ILMN, INFN, NSP, NVTA, JKHY, JBLU, KBH, K, KFRC, KLIC, LZB, LEG, LDOS, LLY, RAMP, MRK, NJR, NEWR, NEE, NXGN, OLN, ASGN, PANW, PNW, PXD, PFG, DGX, RMBS, RGS, ROK, RCKY, ROG, RGLD, SBH, SMG, SEIC, STR, TPR, TECH, TFX, TJX, TSCO, TREX, SLCA, VRSN, VC, WRB, WMB, WSM, WSC, WDAY, ZBRA, ITB, IYZ, IXN, EWK, EWJ, EWM, EWP, EWD, EWL, TUR, IBB, ROBO, GLD, XHB, UNG. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

— Thomas Bulkowski

Tuesday 8/1/23. Slider Trading Quiz!

Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:

     The prediction of the Dow closing higher has been right 268/485 or 55.3% of the time.

     The prediction of the Dow closing lower has been right 51/108 or 47.2% of the time.

$ $ $

I show another slider trading quiz featuring United Parcel Service 2: UPS stock.

$ $ $

Here’s a symbol list of 140 chart and candlestick patterns (13 “investment grade” candle patterns) found in today’s securities using my version of Patternz:
MMM, AYI, ADBE, APD, ALL, DOX, AXP, ANIK, AR, APA, APOG, ADM, AWI, ARW, BSET, BECN, BAH, BCO, CPB, CENX, CDAY, CF, CHS, CHD, CINF, CNA, CNO, COP, CXW, CR, CTS, DHR, DVN, EOG, EXPI, XOM, FARO, FCX, FRD, GNW, GOOGL, HIG, HSY, HON, ITW, ILMN, INTC, ISRG, JBLU, K, KLAC, LHX, LEN, LLY, RAMP, LMT, MRO, MRTN, MOS, NBR, NFG, NEWR, NXGN, NKE, JWN, NOC, OXY, OMC, ON, OR, OMI, PYPL, PCG, PXD, PG, QTWO, QCOM, RL, RHI, R, SMG, SIGI, SMTC, NOW, SHW, SHOP, STR, SO, SCCO, SSYS, TDC, TER, TJX, VEEV, VRSN, VC, WRB, WSM, WOLF, WWD, WDAY, ITA, IYE, ITB, IEZ, QTEC, FXL, IEV, IGV, IXC, MXI, ILF, IGE, IEO, EWA, EWO, EWZ, EWH, EWM, EWS, THD, TUR, PPA, PXJ, XLE, XRT, XAR, USO. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day’s high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences),
the area might act as support or resistance.

— Thomas Bulkowski