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A Look at Gamestop and AMC…

Blog: February 2021

Bulkowski's Blog: ThePatternSite.com

As of 02/04/2021

  Indus: 31,056 +332.26 +1.1%  

  Trans: 12,708 +180.15 +1.4%  

  Utils: 868 +7.31 +0.8%  

  Nasdaq: 13,778 +167.20 +1.2%  

  S&P 500: 3,872 +41.57 +1.1%  

YTD

 +1.5%  

 +1.6%  

 +0.3%  

 +6.9%  

 +3.1%  

  Up arrow31,100 or 29,250 by 02/15/2021
  Down arrow11,900 or 13,100 by 02/15/2021
  Up arrow905 or 810 by 02/15/2021
  Up arrow13,800 or 12,500 by 02/15/2021
  Up arrow3,900 or 3,600 by 02/15/2021

As of 02/04/2021

  Indus: 31,056 +332.26 +1.1%  

  Trans: 12,708 +180.15 +1.4%  

  Utils: 868 +7.31 +0.8%  

  Nasdaq: 13,778 +167.20 +1.2%  

  S&P 500: 3,872 +41.57 +1.1%  

YTD

 +1.5%  

 +1.6%  

 +0.3%  

 +6.9%  

 +3.1%  

  Up arrow31,100 or 29,250 by 02/15/2021
  Down arrow11,900 or 13,100 by 02/15/2021
  Up arrow905 or 810 by 02/15/2021
  Up arrow13,800 or 12,500 by 02/15/2021
  Up arrow3,900 or 3,600 by 02/15/2021

 


Friday 2/5/21. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

$ $ $

Here’s a symbol list of 123 chart and candlestick patterns (13 “investment grade” candle patterns) found in today’s securities using my version of Patternz:
ALB, ADS, ABC, ANTM, AAPL, AMAT, BCPC, BZH, BBY, BIO, BLDR, CBT, CALM, CAL, CVX, CHS, CHD, CLX, CNO, CMTL, CLR, CSOD, COTY, CREE, CCRN, ^DJU, BOOM, EBAY, WIRE, XOM, EZPW, FDS, FAST, FLIR, FLS, FORM, FDP, GME, GNW, GPN, GPRO, HSC, HSII, HP, HNI, HURC, IEX, ITW, NSP, IIIN, INTC, IPAR, IPI, IVC, NVTA, JAZZ, JBLU, KMT, KFRC, KSS, KLIC, LB, LAMR, LANC, LDOS, L, MANH, MDCA, MRK, NBR, CNR, NEU, NI, JWN, OXY, OMC, OMI, OXM, PATK, PYPL, PLXS, PGR, PEG, PHM, QCOM, RGA, SMG, SIGI, SRE, SKX, SR, SXI, SCS, TXT, TREX, SLCA, UPS, VLO, WRB, WSO, WMB, DDM, IHF, IAT, IYZ, IYF, THD, PPA, PXJ, IXC, XLF, GLD, XLI, XAR, XLU, USO. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

The following patterns were found manually, not using Patternz. Mr. Bulkowski has excluded any securities he owns from appearing in the list. However, he may add any of the securities listed to his portfolio at any time, just as you can.

There were 13 patterns found this week (excluding pipe bottoms; pipe tops and bottoms are found looking back 2 weeks) out of 578 stocks searched, or 2.2%. Based on the percentage, the stock market is
trending
since few consolidation patterns appear.

I found 1 pipe bottom chart patterns, which is neutral. High numbers of pipe bottoms can signal a bullish move (I see many of them just before a bear market ends or during a bear market rally. Often it means the first bottom of a double bottom has formed. Thus, expect a move down to the second bottom).

Excluding ETFs, there were 4 bullish chart patterns this week and 3 bearish ones with any remaining (7) being undecided.
The ratio of bullish to bearish patterns suggests the market is hinting of a coming bullish (up) turn.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

For details about the chart patterns, click here.

— Thomas Bulkowski

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Thursday 2/4/21. Intraday Market Direction: Nasdaq

The index dropped by 0.0% or -2.24 points. Since 02/05/1971 the index made 679 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day’s…

     Average gain was 0.8% on 385 occasions.

     Average loss was -0.9% on 294 occasions.

Expect the index to close higher 56.7% of the time.

Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:

     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 208/367 or 56.7% of the time.

     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 57/119 or 47.9% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5 minute scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5-minute scale.

I drew the red line under price at B. It shows support because the index bounced off the line three times.

Extending the line to the left, at A, shows support continues. The two red lines remind me of eyebrows.

Next came the V-shaped blue lines. Notice that the trend going down mirrors the slope going up. At the start, I drew a horizontal blue support line and then drew the one on the right. Label B
was in the way, so I drew it below B, completing the symmetry of the picture.

Other than eyebrows with a V-smile, I’m not sure what it all means. If we assume symmetry will continue, then the composite will lose 100 points (to 13,500) and go horizontal, resting on
the far left blue line to complete the picture.

$ $ $

Here’s a symbol list of 90 chart and candlestick patterns (13 “investment grade” candle patterns) found in today’s securities using my version of Patternz:
DDD, AYI, AEIS, ATSG, AKAM, AA, DOX, AEO, ANIK, AMAT, ATO, AVA, BZH, BBBY, BKNG, BLDR, COG, CDNS, CHD, CLNE, CMTL, BOOM, WIRE, EFX, FEYE, FE, FMC, FORM, GME, GILD, GOOGL, HL, HD, HURC, INFN, IBP, IIIN, NVTA, KLAC, KLIC, LRCX, LDOS, LXU, MHO, MAN, MAS, MU, MUR, NBR, CNR, NFLX, ASGN, OMI, PRFT, PHM, QCOM, ROK, SCHW, SMG, SIGI, SSYS, TPR, TER, TEVA, TXN, TKR, TREX, VEEV, WSO, WERN, XLNX, IHE, QTEC, IYH, SLV, EWJ, EWP, THD, TUR, IBB, DBA, PXJ, PHO, XHB, XRT, USO, SMH. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day’s high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences),
the area might act as support or resistance.

— Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2021 ThePatternSite.com    Metric   Value   Diff   Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2   12,108.51      
 Weekly S2   12,697.59   589.08   
 Monthly S1   12,859.53   161.93   
 Weekly S1   13,154.07   294.54   
 Monthly Pivot   13,294.25   140.19   
 Weekly Pivot   13,441.52   147.27   
 Daily S2   13,501.41   59.89   
 Daily S1   13,555.98   54.56   
 Low   13,585.34   29.36   
 Close   13,610.54   25.20   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High   13,638.24   27.70   
 Daily Pivot   13,639.90   1.66   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 61.8% Down from Intraday High.
 50% Down from Intraday High   13,654.58   14.68   
 38.2% Down from Intraday High   13,670.93   16.34   
 Daily R1   13,694.47   23.54   
 Open   13,718.31   23.84   
 High   13,723.83   5.52   Yes! The High is close to the Open.
 Daily R2   13,778.39   54.56   
 Weekly R1   13,898.00   119.60   
 Monthly R1   14,045.27   147.27   
 Weekly R2   14,185.45   140.19   
 Monthly R2   14,479.99   294.54   


Wednesday 2/3/21. A Look At Indicators

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

The CPI turned bullish yesterday (two price bars back) after briefly turning bearish. Of course, the indicator can change its mind for up to a week, so we’ll have to see if the
bullish signal remains.

Today’s (Tuesday’s) move pulled the indicator up a lot, suggesting a broad advance across many stocks. Could this be the end of the downtrend? I wondered about that and thought of flipping
my targets (Tom’s Targets in the grid at page top) to bullish from bearish.

I decided to leave them alone in case this is a pause (upward retrace) in the downward trend.

Picture of the percent down indicators

The red line is the percentage of stocks at least 20% below their 1-year high (plotted upside down). The blue line is the average percentage drop of stocks below their 1-year high (plotted upside down).

Shown as a red line on the above chart…

On Tuesday, 23% of stocks in my database are in bear market territory (down at least 20% from their 1-year high).

A week ago, it was 21%.

The fewest was 19% on 01/20/2021.

And the most was 97% on 03/23/2020.

Shown as a blue line on the above chart…

The 470 stocks in my database are down an average of 14% from their yearly high.

A week ago, the average was 13%.

The peak was 11% on 01/20/2021.

And the bottom was 47% on 03/23/2020.

Both lines are worse this week than they were at the same time a week ago. However, if you look at the chart, you’ll see the lines (blue and red) have curled up. That’s bullish.

So both charts this week are either outright bullish (CPI chart) or hinting of an upturn (this chart).

The big question is, will the uptrend continue? For that, I have no answer. Sorry.

$ $ $

Here’s a symbol list of 82 chart and candlestick patterns (13 “investment grade” candle patterns) found in today’s securities using my version of Patternz:
AYI, ALL, AYX, AEO, BLL, BZH, BBBY, BIO, BRKS, BLDR, CHD, CIEN, CINF, CLF, CLX, CMTL, CROX, CCRN, DECK, DVN, DRQ, WIRE, EOG, EQT, XOM, FB, FE, GME, GS, HIG, HQY, HTLD, HL, HSII, HON, INFN, IIIN, IVC, JCOM, KELYA, KFRC, LAWS, LDOS, MHO, MRO, MA, NBR, CNR, NFLX, NJR, NXGN, JWN, OMI, PANW, POR, PHM, RMBS, RJF, RHI, CRM, SCS, SNPS, TECH, WSO, WDAY, ITB, IEO, FXI, ICF, IYZ, EEM, EWG, EWY, EWT, TUR, XHB, UNG, USO. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

— Thomas Bulkowski

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Tuesday 2/2/21. GME and AMC Intraday

The index climbed by 0.8% or 229.29 points. Since 10/01/1928 the index made 589 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day’s…

     Average gain was 0.7% on 326 occasions.

     Average loss was -0.6% on 263 occasions.

Expect the index to close higher 55.3% of the time.

Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:

     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 220/382 or 57.6% of the time.

     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 41/86 or 47.7% of the time.

$ $ $

I released a new version of Patternz (version 7.28). This version fixes bugs. After I released it this morning, I crashed the simulator.
Version 7.29 appears to fix it, so you can download that if you’ve already installed Patternz.

$ $ $

Picture of Gamestop.

Today, I thought I’d look at Gamestop (GME) and AMC (AMC) to see how easy/difficult it would be to make money trading them. Let’s look at Gamestop first.

This is the stock for the last 4 days on the 5 minute scale.

Last Tuesday, the stock closed at 147.98. You can just seen a nubbin of it on the chart (far left).

On Wednesday, the stock gapped up to open at 354.83, a gain of 140%. I show the horizontal blue line where it opened. At A, the stock peaked at a high of 380. Notice that if you bought
the stock at the open, you’d have a narrow window of opportunity to profit starting at A. For the rest of the day, you’d be losing money.

The next day, Thursday, you could buy the stock at the open, B, and ride the stock higher, much higher, to 483, representing a gain of 39% if you traded it perfectly. You had about 1.5 hours
to sell the stock for a profit. Most of the day was spent below the opening price.

On Friday, the blue line at C shows that you had less than 5 minutes (the opening bar) to sell the stock for a profit.

Today, Monday, the stock opened high and dropped steadily after 11:00.

Look at the entire chart and notice how buying at the open and trying to sell during the same day would most likely leave your wallet or purse lighter than when you started.
Also notice that the stock was higher at A than it closed today. That tells me the trend is downward.

AMC Intraday

Picture of Gamestop.

Does AMC (AMC) stock show the same behavior? Let’s take a look.

This is AMC stock (one of those highlighted in the media over the last week) on the 5-minute scale.

If you bought at the open, at A, you’d have a loss. The next day, B, you would have fared better by having over half an hour to sell for a profit.

At C, the profit opportunity would happen just after noon but you’d have to weather a dip and sell when others were out to lunch.

Forget today (D). Buying at the open would result in a loss, riding the stock down from 17 to about 13, for a loss of 24%.

Trading AMC stock would not be an easy way to make money either. Of course, if you held onto the stock, you might be able to eke out a profit on succeeding days.

AMC shows a different trend. The last three days price has climbed (the open at D is higher than C, and C is higher than B), so it’s an upward trend.

Buying near the day’s low, if you’re lucky enough to do that and selling higher (especially the next day in AMC) would be profitable as would owning the stock before these shenanigans began.

The point I’m making here is trading these stocks to make money won’t be easy.

$ $ $

Here’s a symbol list of 128 chart and candlestick patterns (13 “investment grade” candle patterns) found in today’s securities using my version of Patternz:
ACN, AMD, AA, AEE, AEL, AFG, AMWD, AMAT, AVA, BKNG, BAH, BRC, BRKS, CHD, CINF, CL, CMCO, CSOD, CREE, CRH, CROX, DVN, EMN, EMR, EIGI, EPAM, EQT, RE, FDS, FISV, FLIR, FTNT, GME, GPN, GS, GPRO, HSC, HIG, HL, HSII, HSY, IPG, ISRG, JKHY, JAZZ, JBLU, JNJ, KFRC, KBAL, KLAC, LZB, LLY, LXU, MRO, MA, MTRN, MDT, MLI, ^IXIC, NJR, NOC, PICO, PINC, ROG, RES, SAIC, SEE, SUM, UPS, WERN, WLK, ITA, IAI, IYC, IEO, DDM, QTEC, BOTZ, SOXX, SLV, IGE, EWA, EWO, EWK, ECH, EEM, EWQ, EWG, EIS, EWI, EWM, EWW, EPP, EWY, EWP, EWD, EWL, EWT, THD, TUR, EWU, QLD, PEJ, ROBO, IEV, IXN, ILF, SSO, MXI, XLY, XLF, XLI, XLB, SPY, XAR, UNG, USO, SMH, MGK. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day’s high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences),
the area might act as support or resistance.

— Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2021 ThePatternSite.com    Metric   Value   Diff   Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2   29,030.89      
 Weekly S2   29,131.42   100.53   
 Monthly S1   29,621.40   489.98   
 Weekly S1   29,671.67   50.27   
 Daily S2   29,866.66   194.99   
 Low   30,014.97   148.31   
 Daily S1   30,039.28   24.31   Yes! The Daily S1 is close to the Low.
 Open   30,054.73   15.45   Yes! The Open is close to the Daily S1.
 61.8% Down from Intraday High   30,137.57   82.84   
 50% Down from Intraday High   30,175.44   37.87   
 Daily Pivot   30,187.60   12.16   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 50% Down from Intraday High.
 Close   30,211.91   24.31   Yes! The Close is close to the Daily Pivot.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High   30,213.31   1.40   Yes! The 38.2% Down from Intraday High is close to the Close.
 High   30,335.91   122.60   
 Daily R1   30,360.22   24.31   Yes! The Daily R1 is close to the High.
 Weekly Pivot   30,396.54   36.32   
 Monthly Pivot   30,446.81   50.27   
 Daily R2   30,508.54   61.73   
 Weekly R1   30,936.79   428.25   
 Monthly R1   31,037.32   100.53   
 Weekly R2   31,661.66   624.34   
 Monthly R2   31,862.73   201.07   


Monday 2/1/21. Monthly Forecast Update

Forecast

Before I forget, I’ve created a new series of articles which I call Traps. I only have one written so far, but the category is meant to place chart patterns
in the price landscape to show what works and what doesn’t. The first article is The Top Trap. It describes when patterns fail after a top occurs. You can find
links to Traps on the home page, too.

Here’s the updated 2021 forecast for February, presented in slider format.

Based on sector performance from Fidelity, the best performing sectors for year to date performance as of 29 January 2021 were…
(The numbering is how they ranked a month ago.)

11. Energy (3.6%).

4. Health care (+1.3%)

9. Real estate (0.5%)

2. Consumer discretionary (+0.4%)

7. Utilities (-1.0%)

1. Information technology (-1.0%)

3. Communication services (-2.0%)

10. Financials (-2.0%)

5. Materials (-2.4%)

8. Industrials (-4.0%)

6. Consumer staples (-5.0%)

Compared to last year’s totals, where the list was stable from month to month, this time the list has been shuffled. That’s probably because it’s only been a month. Results are easier to change
after a month (YTD) compared to 12 months (YTD). Notice how a few near the bottom of last year’s list (energy, real estate) are near the top now.

Here’s how they rank the industries, but only the top 10 appear. Year to date returns. The numbering is how they ranked a month ago.

(new). Automobiles (13.6%)

6. Life sciences tools & Services (+7.3%)

(new). Household durables (5.2%)

(new). Oil, gas & consumable fuels (4.2%)

(new). Auto components (3.8%)

(new). Independent power and renewable electric producers (3.8%)

7. Semiconductors & semiconductor equipment (+2.4%)

(new). Biotechnology (+2.3%)

(new). Health care technology (+2.1%)

(new). Pharmaceuticals (+1.8%)

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A Brief Look Back

Picture of a flower from my garden.

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

Monday: Down 36.98 points.

Tuesday: Down 22.96 points.

Wednesday: Down 633.87 points.

Thursday: Up 300.19 points.

Friday: Down 620.74 points.

For the Week…

The Dow industrials were down 1014.36 points or 3.3%.

The Nasdaq composite was down 472.37 points or 3.5%.

The S&P 500 index was down 127.23 points or 3.3%.

Year to Date…

Dow Industrials

     4.1% down from the high of 31,272.22 on 01/21/2021.

     0.4% up from the low of 29,856.30 on 01/29/2021.

Nasdaq

     4.8% down from the high of 13,728.98 on 01/25/2021.

     4.2% up from the low of 12,543.24 on 01/04/2021.

S&P 500

     4.0% down from the high of 3,870.90 on 01/26/2021.

     1.4% up from the low of 3,662.71 on 01/04/2021.

Options Expiration

No options expire this week.

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Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, “Take a
two-dimensional approach.” He offers these tips.

Index S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2
Dow Industrials (^DJI): Daily   29,433   29,708   30,131   30,406   30,829 
Weekly   29,055   29,519   30,320   30,784   31,585 
Monthly   28,954   29,469   30,370   30,884   31,786 
S&P500 (^GSPC): Daily   3,645   3,680   3,729   3,763   3,813 
Weekly   3,583   3,649   3,760   3,825   3,937 
Monthly   3,541   3,628   3,749   3,836   3,957 
Nasdaq (^IXIC): Daily   12,789   12,930   13,126   13,267   13,463 
Weekly   12,518   12,794   13,262   13,538   14,006 
Monthly   11,929   12,500   13,114   13,685   14,300 
  • Seekinger doesn’t look at the range of S2 to R2 as support and resistance levels. Rather, he considers them oversold (S) and overbought (R) areas.
  • S2 to R2 range of values across daily, weekly, and monthly periods: If two values are close together then they lend more significance to the area.
  • If the market trends on day 1, the odds rise tremendously that the market will be range bound between daily S1 and daily R1 the next day.
  • In a quiet market when traders are waiting for an important earnings announcement or economic report, look for daily R1 and S1 levels to hold and for the market to return to the daily pivot.
  • A move outside of daily R1 or S1 usually does not mean a breakout.
  • The odds suggest that the entire week’s price action will remain between weekly R2 and S2.
  • Avoid going long when the market moves above weekly R2 (it’s overbought) and avoid going short when price moves below weekly S2 (oversold).
  • Consider going short at weekly R1 or long at weekly S1 with a profit objective of the weekly pivot.
  • Consider going long at weekly S2 or short at weekly R2 with a profit objective of weekly S1 or R1, respectively.

Here are the formulas:

Pivot point: P = (H + L + C)/3

First resistance level: R1 = (2 * P) – L

First support level: S1 = (2 * P) – H)

Second resistance level: R2 = P + (R1 – S1)

Second support level: S2 = P – (R1 – S1)

H = high price , L=low price, C=closing price

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Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season is either underway or should be starting soon. The sessions could be more volatile.

Here’s a symbol list of 124 chart and candlestick patterns (13 “investment grade” candle patterns) found in today’s securities using my version of Patternz:
AEIS, AKAM, ALKS, AEE, AIG, APA, ACGL, AVA, BMI, BAX, BIIB, BKNG, BAH, BRC, BBW, BLDR, CBT, CACI, CVX, CINF, CLX, CROX, CSGS, DVN, BOOM, EQT, RE, EXPD, EZPW, FLIR, FLS, GME, GD, GPN, GS, GFF, HLIT, HSC, HIG, HSII, HSY, HOLX, JBHT, IPI, ISRG, JKHY, JAZZ, KLIC, LHX, LZB, LANC, LLY, LNC, MTSI, M, MRO, MTRN, MDCA, MRK, MLI, NBR, CNR, NJR, NOC, NVDA, ORI, OLN, OTEX, PKE, PYPL, PICO, PNW, PPG, PINC, PEG, PHM, KWR, RMBS, SCHW, SEE, SCCO, STMP, TER, TKR, TRV, UGI, WEX, IEO, IHE, DDM, QTEC, BOTZ, IYH, IAT, SOXX, EWA, EWZ, EEM, EWH, EWJ, EWM, EWW, EPP, EWS, EWY, EWP, EWD, EWL, EWT, THD, EWU, PPA, IEV, ILF, VHT. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

The below industries were the best (rank 1) or worst performing of those I follow.

This Week Last Week
1. Retail (Special Lines) 1. Apparel
2. Apparel 2. Retail (Special Lines)
3. Shoe 3. Shoe
4. Securities Brokerage 4. Semiconductor Cap Equip.
5. Metal Fabricating 5. Semiconductor
6. Computers and Peripherals 6. Securities Brokerage
7. Retail Store 7. Metal Fabricating
8. Electronics 8. Electronics
9. Semiconductor Cap Equip. 9. Computers and Peripherals
10. Cement and Aggregates 10. Air Transport
Best Performing Above Worst Performing Below
50. Petroleum (Integrated) 50. Electric Utility (East)
51. Natural Gas (Distributor) 51. Aerospace/Defense
52. Food Processing 52. Food Processing
53. Aerospace/Defense 53. Natural Gas (Distributor)
54. Information Services 54. Information Services
55. Household Products 55. Household Products
56. Electric Utility (West) 56. Electric Utility (Central)
57. Electric Utility (Central) 57. Natural Gas (Diversified)
58. Natural Gas (Diversified) 58. Electric Utility (West)
59. Short ETFs 59. Short ETFs

— Thomas Bulkowski

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Blog: October 2020 As of 10/06/2020   Indus: 27,773 -375.88 -1.3%     Trans: 11,399 -82.95 -0.7%     Utils: 851 +6.32 +0.7%   ...

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