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Chart Pattern Indicator: What's It Say?…

Bulkowski’s Blog: December 2019

Bulkowski's Blog: ThePatternSite.com

As of 12/06/2019

  Indus: 28,015 +337.27 +1.2%  

  Trans: 10,709 +133.66 +1.3%  

  Utils: 855 -1.82 -0.2%  

  Nasdaq: 8,657 +86.13 +1.0%  

  S&P 500: 3,146 +28.48 +0.9%  

YTD

 +20.1%  

 +16.8%  

 +19.9%  

 +30.5%  

 +25.5%  

  Up arrow28,600 or 27,600 by 12/15/2019
  Up arrow11,300 or 10,500 by 12/15/2019
  Up arrow875 or 830 by 12/15/2019
  Up arrow8,900 or 8,400 by 12/15/2019
  Up arrow3,250 or 3,075 by 12/15/2019

As of 12/06/2019

  Indus: 28,015 +337.27 +1.2%  

  Trans: 10,709 +133.66 +1.3%  

  Utils: 855 -1.82 -0.2%  

  Nasdaq: 8,657 +86.13 +1.0%  

  S&P 500: 3,146 +28.48 +0.9%  

YTD

 +20.1%  

 +16.8%  

 +19.9%  

 +30.5%  

 +25.5%  

  Up arrow28,600 or 27,600 by 12/15/2019
  Up arrow11,300 or 10,500 by 12/15/2019
  Up arrow875 or 830 by 12/15/2019
  Up arrow8,900 or 8,400 by 12/15/2019
  Up arrow3,250 or 3,075 by 12/15/2019

 


Monday 12/9/19. Market Monday: The Week Ahead

My Prediction

Picture of the Nasdaq on the daily scale.

I show the Nasdaq composite on the daily scale.

Bottoms 1, 2, and 3 form a triple bottom.

That’s three bottoms near the same price. The pattern confirms as a valid triple bottom when price closes above the top of the pattern. That happens when price gaps up in September.

In this example, a throwback takes price back down in October to the level of the three bottoms.

More recently is the diamond shape in the upper right of the chart. Can you name this chart pattern?

That was easy, wasn’t it? It’s a diamond top, but not one I’m proud of.

The right side of the index isn’t well formed, so we really should wait to see if the diamond blossoms with sparkle or not. As it looks now, I’m not sure it’s a diamond.

 

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A Brief Look Back

Picture of a flower from my garden.

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

Monday: Down 268.37 points.

Tuesday: Down 280.23 points.

Wednesday: Up 146.97 points.

Thursday: Up 28.01 points.

Friday: Up 337.27 points.

For the Week…

The Dow industrials were down 36.35 points or 0.1%.

The Nasdaq composite was down 8.64 points or 0.1%.

The S&P 500 index was up 4.93 points or 0.2%.

Year to Date…

Dow Industrials

     0.6% down from the high of 28,174.97 on 11/27/2019.

     23.8% up from the low of 22,638.41 on 01/03/2019.

Nasdaq

     0.6% down from the high of 8,705.91 on 11/27/2019.

     34.1% up from the low of 6,457.13 on 01/03/2019.

S&P 500

     0.3% down from the high of 3,154.26 on 11/27/2019.

     28.7% up from the low of 2,443.96 on 01/03/2019.

Options Expiration

No options expire this week.

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Swing and Position Traders: Chart Pattern Indicator

As of 12/06/2019, the CPI had:

4 bearish patterns,

46 bullish patterns,

297 patterns waiting for breakout.

The CPI signal is 92.0%, which is
bullish (>= 65%).

The chart pattern indicator is bullish
with 2 of 3 half triangles showing (). Additional triangles are a measure
of strength with solid triangles meaning a more reliable signal than half triangles.

Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, “Take a
two-dimensional approach.” He offers these tips.

Index S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2
Dow Industrials (^DJI): Daily   27,767   27,891   27,964   28,087   28,160 
Weekly   27,032   27,524   27,817   28,308   28,601 
Monthly   26,989   27,502   27,838   28,352   28,688 
S&P500 (^GSPC): Daily   3,128   3,137   3,144   3,153   3,160 
Weekly   3,042   3,094   3,122   3,174   3,203 
Monthly   3,034   3,090   3,122   3,178   3,210 
Nasdaq (^IXIC): Daily   8,616   8,636   8,651   8,671   8,686 
Weekly   8,351   8,504   8,588   8,741   8,826 
Monthly   8,254   8,455   8,581   8,782   8,907 
  • Seekinger doesn’t look at the range of S2 to R2 as support and resistance levels. Rather, he considers them oversold (S) and overbought (R) areas.
  • S2 to R2 range of values across daily, weekly, and monthly periods: If two values are close together then they lend more significance to the area.
  • If the market trends on day 1, the odds rise tremendously that the market will be range bound between daily S1 and daily R1 the next day.
  • In a quiet market when traders are waiting for an important earnings announcement or economic report, look for daily R1 and S1 levels to hold and for the market to return to the daily pivot.
  • A move outside of daily R1 or S1 usually does not mean a breakout.
  • The odds suggest that the entire week’s price action will remain between weekly R2 and S2.
  • Avoid going long when the market moves above weekly R2 (it’s overbought) and avoid going short when price moves below weekly S2 (oversold).
  • Consider going short at weekly R1 or long at weekly S1 with a profit objective of the weekly pivot.
  • Consider going long at weekly S2 or short at weekly R2 with a profit objective of weekly S1 or R1, respectively.

Here are the formulas:

Pivot point: P = (H + L + C)/3

First resistance level: R1 = (2 * P) – L

First support level: S1 = (2 * P) – H)

Second resistance level: R2 = P + (R1 – S1)

Second support level: S2 = P – (R1 – S1)

H = high price , L=low price, C=closing price

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Consecutive Price Trends

Index  Consecutive
Closes So Far 
%  Comments 
 Dow industrials (^DJI)  1 week down  27.5%   The trend may continue. 
  1 month down  21.2%   Expect a reversal soon. 
 S & P 500 (^GSPC)  2 weeks up  36.3%   The trend may continue. 
  4 months up  30.8%   The trend may continue. 
 Nasdaq composite (^IXIC)  1 week down  27.1%   The trend may continue. 
  1 month down  26.3%   The trend may continue. 

How long can an index close higher (or lower) each day? The adjacent table shows how often consecutive up or down closes occur in the indices, based on the most recent trend of closes.

Low percentages suggest the market is overdue to turn (think of it as the likelihood that next week or next month will continue the trend, based on historical performance). Values of 50% mean random, so most percentages will be lower.

The analysis uses data going back 10 years for weekly percentages and 25 years for monthly percentages (or the start of data, whichever is more recent). Any unchanged closing price is interpreted as the end of the string of consecutive up or down closes.

Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season is over.

Mutual funds will begin dividend distributions and rebalancing their portfolios for the approaching year end (starts in late November).

 Found  Chart Pattern Name
14 Triangle, symmetrical
5 Rising wedge
5 Diamond top
5 Double Top, Adam and Adam
5 Double Top, Eve and Eve
4 Rectangle top
4 Pipe top
4 Triple top
4 Head-and-shoulders top
4 Head-and-shoulders bottom

Large numbers of bullish or bearish chart patterns can signal short- to intermediate-term market trends (many bullish chart patterns can mean an uptrend will continue, for example).
However, please realize that the short-term price trend could have changed since the pattern was discovered (this is especially true of pipe tops or bottoms, which are weekly patterns).

The 10 types of most frequently appearing chart patterns in the stocks, indices, and long-only exchange traded funds I follow during the last month are shown in the adjacent table.

The industries I follow were the best (rank 1) and worst performing.

This Week Last Week
1. Computers and Peripherals 1. Semiconductor Cap Equip.
2. Trucking/Transp. Leasing 2. Computers and Peripherals
3. Semiconductor Cap Equip. 3. Trucking/Transp. Leasing
4. Homebuilding 4. Semiconductor
5. Semiconductor 5. Homebuilding


— Thomas Bulkowski

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Friday 12/6/19. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

Go to Table.

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

Click the link for a list of symbols from the table.

The following patterns were found manually, so the results may differ from those found using Patternz.

Mr. Bulkowski has excluded any securities he owns from appearing in the list. However, he may add any of the securities listed to his portfolio at any time, just as you can.

There were 28 patterns found this week (excluding pipe bottoms; pipe tops and bottoms are found looking back 2 weeks) out of 584 stocks searched, or 4.8%. Based on the percentage, the stock market is
trending
since few consolidation patterns appear.

Excluding ETFs, there were 22 bullish chart patterns this week and 2 bearish ones with any remaining (4) being undecided.
The ratio of bullish to bearish patterns suggests the market is bullish.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

More…

— Thomas Bulkowski

 

Symbol Chart Pattern Bullish
Bearish
Start End Industry
ADTN Triangle, symmetrical        10/10/2019 12/05/2019 Telecom. Equipment
AMN Rectangle top        11/08/2019 12/05/2019 Human Resources
AXE Broadening top        11/15/2019 12/03/2019 Electronics
ARW Double Bottom, Eve and Adam        11/20/2019 12/03/2019 Electronics
ASH Flag        11/21/2019 12/02/2019 Chemical (Basic)
BLL Triangle, symmetrical        11/12/2019 12/05/2019 Packaging and Container
CIEN Double Top, Eve and Adam        11/13/2019 11/29/2019 Telecom. Equipment
CTSH Broadening top, right-angled and ascending        11/07/2019 12/05/2019 IT Services
CLR Triangle, symmetrical        11/07/2019 12/05/2019 Petroleum (Producing)
DTE Head-and-shoulders bottom        10/29/2019 12/03/2019 Electric Utility (Central)
DUK Head-and-shoulders bottom        11/12/2019 12/03/2019 Electric Utility (East)
HP Triangle, symmetrical        10/31/2019 12/05/2019 Petroleum (Producing)
LANC Triangle, symmetrical        11/05/2019 12/05/2019 Food Processing
MTRN Triangle, symmetrical        10/24/2019 12/05/2019 Metals and Mining (Div.)
ASGN Rectangle top        11/11/2019 12/05/2019 Human Resources
OUT Rectangle bottom        11/06/2019 12/05/2019 Advertising
PCG Flag, high and tight        10/28/2019 12/05/2019 Electric Utility (West)
PGR Triangle, symmetrical        10/11/2019 12/05/2019 Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
KWR Head-and-shoulders bottom        10/21/2019 12/03/2019 Chemical (Specialty)
RL Double Bottom, Adam and Adam        11/21/2019 12/03/2019 Apparel
RHI Rectangle top        10/30/2019 12/05/2019 Human Resources
CRM Scallop, ascending and inverted        10/23/2019 12/04/2019 E-Commerce
SO Triangle, ascending        11/01/2019 12/05/2019 Electric Utility (East)
SCS Triangle, ascending        10/21/2019 12/05/2019 Furn/Home Furnishings
TSCO Rectangle top        10/24/2019 12/05/2019 Retail Building Supply
RIG Triangle, symmetrical        08/15/2019 12/03/2019 Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
TREX Triangle, symmetrical        10/29/2019 12/05/2019 Building Materials
VMI Broadening bottom        11/12/2019 12/05/2019 Metal Fabricating

 

Weekly screen for chart patterns ending between 11/28/2019 and 12/05/2019. Many may be still in development. If no securities appear, then I have not identified any new patterns.

Definitions

RS is relative strength (where 1 is best). For other definitions, see the glossary.

’Breakout is upward/downward 100% of the time’ means price breaks out up/down by definition, not by statistically measuring the rate.

All numbers assume a bull market and are based on the breakout direction that occurs most often.

 

ADTRAN Inc (ADTN)

Industry: Telecom. Equipment

Industry RS rank: 41 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 572 out of 579

12/5/19 close: $8.91

1 Month avg volatility: $0.29. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $8.23 or 7.6% below the close.

Change YTD: -17.04%

Volume: 229,600 shares.
3 month avg: 348,746 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.

 

Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 10/10/2019 to 12/05/2019

WARNING: A dead-cat bounce occurred on 10/10/2019. There is a 26% chance that a 15% or higher decline will occur (or has occurred since then) by 01/09/2020 and a 38% chance by 04/09/2020.

Breakout is upward 54% of the time.

Average rise: 31%.

Break-even failure rate: 9%.

Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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AMN Healthcare (AMN)

Industry: Human Resources

Industry RS rank: 52 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 126 out of 579

12/5/19 close: $60.46

1 Month avg volatility: $1.12. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $57.55 or 4.8% below the close.

Change YTD: 6.71%

Volume: 240,400 shares.
3 month avg: 549,046 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.

 

Chart pattern: Rectangle top continuation pattern from 11/08/2019 to 12/05/2019

Breakout is upward 68% of the time.

Average rise: 39%.

Break-even failure rate: 9%.

Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 80% of the time.

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Anixter International Inc (AXE)

Industry: Electronics

Industry RS rank: 10 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 16 out of 579

12/5/19 close: $88.80

1 Month avg volatility: $1.19. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $91.65 or 3.2% above the close.

Change YTD: 63.51%

Volume: 2,311,900 shares.
3 month avg: 173,640 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.

 

Chart pattern: Broadening top reversal pattern from 11/15/2019 to 12/03/2019

Breakout is downward 50% of the time.

Average decline: 15%.

Break-even failure rate: 18%.

Pullbacks occur 48% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 37% of the time.

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Arrow Electronics (ARW)

Industry: Electronics

Industry RS rank: 10 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 84 out of 579

12/5/19 close: $81.16

1 Month avg volatility: $1.14. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $78.61 or 3.1% below the close.

Change YTD: 17.71%

Volume: 358,300 shares.
3 month avg: 447,163 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.

 

Chart pattern: Double Bottom, Eve and Adam reversal pattern from 11/20/2019 to 12/03/2019

Breakout is upward 100% of the time.

Average rise: 35%.

Break-even failure rate: 4%.

Throwbacks occur 57% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Ashland Inc. (ASH)

Industry: Chemical (Basic)

Industry RS rank: 7 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 458 out of 579

12/5/19 close: $73.20

1 Month avg volatility: $1.23. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $70.31 or 4.0% below the close.

Change YTD: 3.16%

Volume: 608,900 shares.
3 month avg: 610,854 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.

 

Chart pattern: Flag continuation pattern from 11/21/2019 to 12/02/2019

Breakout is upward 54% of the time.

Average rise: 23%.

Break-even failure rate: 4%.

Throwbacks occur 43% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 64% of the time.

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Ball Corp (BLL)

Industry: Packaging and Container

Industry RS rank: 28 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 355 out of 579

12/5/19 close: $66.14

1 Month avg volatility: $1.41. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $62.52 or 5.5% below the close.

Change YTD: 43.85%

Volume: 1,487,100 shares.
3 month avg: 2,433,769 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.

 

Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 11/12/2019 to 12/05/2019

Breakout is upward 54% of the time.

Average rise: 31%.

Break-even failure rate: 9%.

Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Ciena Corp (CIEN)

Industry: Telecom. Equipment

Industry RS rank: 41 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 382 out of 579

12/5/19 close: $36.29

1 Month avg volatility: $0.72. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $38.17 or 5.2% above the close.

Change YTD: 7.02%

Volume: 4,964,600 shares.
3 month avg: 3,226,991 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.

 

Chart pattern: Double Top, Eve and Adam reversal pattern from 11/13/2019 to 11/29/2019

Breakout is downward 100% of the time.

Average decline: 15%.

Break-even failure rate: 13%.

Pullbacks occur 64% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 72% of the time.

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Cognizant Technology Solutions Corp (CTSH)

Industry: IT Services

Industry RS rank: 19 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 401 out of 579

12/5/19 close: $62.21

1 Month avg volatility: $0.68. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $63.95 or 2.8% above the close.

Change YTD: -2.00%

Volume: 2,882,600 shares.
3 month avg: 3,250,685 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.

 

Chart pattern: Broadening top, right-angled and ascending reversal pattern from 11/07/2019 to 12/05/2019

Breakout is downward 66% of the time.

Average decline: 15%.

Break-even failure rate: 20%.

Pullbacks occur 65% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 32% of the time.

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Continental Resources Inc. (CLR)

Industry: Petroleum (Producing)

Industry RS rank: 58 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 540 out of 579

12/5/19 close: $31.11

1 Month avg volatility: $1.12. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $28.51 or 8.4% below the close.

Change YTD: -22.59%

Volume: 2,371,400 shares.
3 month avg: 2,362,946 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.

 

Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 11/07/2019 to 12/05/2019

Breakout is upward 54% of the time.

Average rise: 31%.

Break-even failure rate: 9%.

Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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DTE Energy Company (DTE)

Industry: Electric Utility (Central)

Industry RS rank: 47 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 440 out of 579

12/5/19 close: $125.36

1 Month avg volatility: $1.43. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $121.85 or 2.8% below the close.

Change YTD: 13.65%

Volume: 901,500 shares.
3 month avg: 979,609 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.

 

Chart pattern: Head-and-shoulders bottom reversal pattern from 10/29/2019 to 12/03/2019

Breakout is upward 100% of the time.

Average rise: 38%.

Break-even failure rate: 3%.

Throwbacks occur 45% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 74% of the time.

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Duke Energy Corp (DUK)

Industry: Electric Utility (East)

Industry RS rank: 38 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 362 out of 579

12/5/19 close: $89.29

1 Month avg volatility: $1.16. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $86.28 or 3.4% below the close.

Change YTD: 3.46%

Volume: 3,055,400 shares.
3 month avg: 2,571,354 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.

 

Chart pattern: Head-and-shoulders bottom reversal pattern from 11/12/2019 to 12/03/2019

Breakout is upward 100% of the time.

Average rise: 38%.

Break-even failure rate: 3%.

Throwbacks occur 45% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 74% of the time.

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Helmerich and Payne Inc. (HP)

Industry: Petroleum (Producing)

Industry RS rank: 58 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 551 out of 579

12/5/19 close: $38.64

1 Month avg volatility: $1.39. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $35.74 or 7.5% below the close.

Change YTD: -19.40%

Volume: 1,236,700 shares.
3 month avg: 1,539,165 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.

 

Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 10/31/2019 to 12/05/2019

Breakout is upward 54% of the time.

Average rise: 31%.

Break-even failure rate: 9%.

Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Lancaster Colony Corp (LANC)

Industry: Food Processing

Industry RS rank: 26 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 282 out of 579

12/5/19 close: $157.97

1 Month avg volatility: $2.82. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $151.85 or 3.9% below the close.

Change YTD: -10.68%

Volume: 64,600 shares.
3 month avg: 112,417 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.

 

Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 11/05/2019 to 12/05/2019

Breakout is upward 54% of the time.

Average rise: 31%.

Break-even failure rate: 9%.

Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Materion Corp (MTRN)

Industry: Metals and Mining (Div.)

Industry RS rank: 34 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 483 out of 579

12/5/19 close: $58.13

1 Month avg volatility: $1.31. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $55.31 or 4.9% below the close.

Change YTD: 29.21%

Volume: 121,300 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Thursday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.

 

Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 10/24/2019 to 12/05/2019

Breakout is upward 54% of the time.

Average rise: 31%.

Break-even failure rate: 9%.

Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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On Assignment, Inc. (ASGN)

Industry: Human Resources

Industry RS rank: 52 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 96 out of 579

12/5/19 close: $66.92

1 Month avg volatility: $1.09. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $64.28 or 3.9% below the close.

Change YTD: 22.79%

Volume: 150,500 shares.
3 month avg: 295,840 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.

 

Chart pattern: Rectangle top continuation pattern from 11/11/2019 to 12/05/2019

Breakout is upward 68% of the time.

Average rise: 39%.

Break-even failure rate: 9%.

Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 80% of the time.

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Outfont Media (OUT)

Industry: Advertising

Industry RS rank: 44 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 398 out of 579

12/5/19 close: $25.01

1 Month avg volatility: $0.48. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $26.08 or 4.3% above the close.

Change YTD: 38.02%

Volume: 888,300 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Monday.

 

Chart pattern: Rectangle bottom continuation pattern from 11/06/2019 to 12/05/2019

Breakout is downward 55% of the time.

Average decline: 14%.

Break-even failure rate: 16%.

Pullbacks occur 69% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 50% of the time.

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PG and E (PCG)

Industry: Electric Utility (West)

Industry RS rank: 49 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 578 out of 579

12/5/19 close: $9.78

1 Month avg volatility: $0.73. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $7.49 or 23.4% below the close.

Change YTD: -58.82%

Volume: 21,666,000 shares.
3 month avg: 5,870,049 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.

 

Chart pattern: Flag, high and tight continuation pattern from 10/28/2019 to 12/05/2019

WARNING: A dead-cat bounce occurred on 10/25/2019. There is a 26% chance that a 15% or higher decline will occur (or has occurred since then) by 01/24/2020 and a 38% chance by 04/24/2020.

Breakout is upward 100% of the time.

Average rise: 69%.

Throwbacks occur 54% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 90% of the time.

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Progressive Corp (PGR)

Industry: Insurance (Prop/Casualty)

Industry RS rank: 48 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 513 out of 579

12/5/19 close: $72.44

1 Month avg volatility: $1.29. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $69.16 or 4.5% below the close.

Change YTD: 20.07%

Volume: 3,500,600 shares.
3 month avg: 3,017,600 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.

 

Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 10/11/2019 to 12/05/2019

Breakout is upward 54% of the time.

Average rise: 31%.

Break-even failure rate: 9%.

Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Quaker Chemical (KWR)

Industry: Chemical (Specialty)

Industry RS rank: 29 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 539 out of 579

12/5/19 close: $151.99

1 Month avg volatility: $4.28. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $142.01 or 6.6% below the close.

Change YTD: -14.47%

Volume: 135,100 shares.
3 month avg: 69,343 shares.

This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Monday.

 

Chart pattern: Head-and-shoulders bottom reversal pattern from 10/21/2019 to 12/03/2019

Breakout is upward 100% of the time.

Average rise: 38%.

Break-even failure rate: 3%.

Throwbacks occur 45% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 74% of the time.

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Ralph Lauren Corp. (RL)

Industry: Apparel

Industry RS rank: 53 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 385 out of 579

12/5/19 close: $112.06

1 Month avg volatility: $3.03. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $102.87 or 8.2% below the close.

Change YTD: 8.31%

Volume: 1,296,100 shares.
3 month avg: 1,365,482 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.

 

Chart pattern: Double Bottom, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 11/21/2019 to 12/03/2019

Breakout is upward 100% of the time.

Average rise: 35%.

Break-even failure rate: 5%.

Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Robert Half International (RHI)

Industry: Human Resources

Industry RS rank: 52 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 304 out of 579

12/5/19 close: $58.39

1 Month avg volatility: $0.77. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $56.49 or 3.3% below the close.

Change YTD: 2.08%

Volume: 1,207,900 shares.
3 month avg: 1,012,069 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.

 

Chart pattern: Rectangle top continuation pattern from 10/30/2019 to 12/05/2019

Breakout is upward 68% of the time.

Average rise: 39%.

Break-even failure rate: 9%.

Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 80% of the time.

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salesforce com (CRM)

Industry: E-Commerce

Industry RS rank: 31 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 403 out of 579

12/5/19 close: $158.22

1 Month avg volatility: $3.00. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $149.24 or 5.7% below the close.

Change YTD: 15.51%

Volume: 7,126,600 shares.
3 month avg: 4,417,257 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.

 

Chart pattern: Scallop, ascending and inverted continuation pattern from 10/23/2019 to 12/04/2019

Breakout is upward 100% of the time.

Average rise: 43%.

Break-even failure rate: 4%.

Throwbacks occur 61% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 61% of the time.

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Southern Company (SO)

Industry: Electric Utility (East)

Industry RS rank: 38 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 169 out of 579

12/5/19 close: $62.76

1 Month avg volatility: $0.72. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $60.93 or 2.9% below the close.

Change YTD: 42.90%

Volume: 3,216,500 shares.
3 month avg: 4,514,520 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.

 

Chart pattern: Triangle, ascending reversal pattern from 11/01/2019 to 12/05/2019

Breakout is upward 70% of the time.

Average rise: 35%.

Break-even failure rate: 13%.

Throwbacks occur 57% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 75% of the time.

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Steelcase (SCS)

Industry: Furn/Home Furnishings

Industry RS rank: 16 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 241 out of 579

12/5/19 close: $18.39

1 Month avg volatility: $0.26. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $17.69 or 3.8% below the close.

Change YTD: 24.01%

Volume: 394,100 shares.
3 month avg: 708,518 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Thursday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.

 

Chart pattern: Triangle, ascending reversal pattern from 10/21/2019 to 12/05/2019

Breakout is upward 70% of the time.

Average rise: 35%.

Break-even failure rate: 13%.

Throwbacks occur 57% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 75% of the time.

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Tractor Supply Co (TSCO)

Industry: Retail Building Supply

Industry RS rank: 20 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 478 out of 579

12/5/19 close: $96.44

1 Month avg volatility: $1.89. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $92.50 or 4.1% below the close.

Change YTD: 15.58%

Volume: 1,151,500 shares.
3 month avg: 2,128,008 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.

 

Chart pattern: Rectangle top continuation pattern from 10/24/2019 to 12/05/2019

Breakout is upward 68% of the time.

Average rise: 39%.

Break-even failure rate: 9%.

Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 80% of the time.

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Transocean Inc. (RIG)

Industry: Oilfield Svcs/Equipment

Industry RS rank: 54 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 504 out of 579

12/5/19 close: $5.32

1 Month avg volatility: $0.28. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $4.73 or 11.1% below the close.

Change YTD: -23.34%

Volume: 16,483,300 shares.
3 month avg: 13,612,100 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.

 

Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 08/15/2019 to 12/03/2019

Breakout is upward 54% of the time.

Average rise: 31%.

Break-even failure rate: 9%.

Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Trex Company (TREX)

Industry: Building Materials

Industry RS rank: 8 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 54 out of 579

12/5/19 close: $85.74

1 Month avg volatility: $2.08. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $81.11 or 5.4% below the close.

Change YTD: 44.44%

Volume: 453,700 shares.
3 month avg: 245,355 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.

 

Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 10/29/2019 to 12/05/2019

Breakout is upward 54% of the time.

Average rise: 31%.

Break-even failure rate: 9%.

Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Valmont Industries Inc. (VMI)

Industry: Metal Fabricating

Industry RS rank: 22 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 94 out of 579

12/5/19 close: $142.45

1 Month avg volatility: $2.31. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $137.36 or 3.6% below the close.

Change YTD: 28.39%

Volume: 53,900 shares.
3 month avg: 117,540 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.

 

Chart pattern: Broadening bottom reversal pattern from 11/12/2019 to 12/05/2019

Breakout is upward 53% of the time.

Average rise: 27%.

Break-even failure rate: 10%.

Throwbacks occur 41% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 59% of the time.

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Thursday 12/5/19. Intraday Market Direction: Nasdaq

The index climbed by 0.5% or 46.03 points. Since 02/05/1971 the index made 556 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day’s…

     Average gain was 0.8% on 375 occasions.

     Average loss was -0.7% on 181 occasions.

Expect the index to close higher 67.4% of the time.

Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:

     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 178/320 or 55.6% of the time.

     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 54/106 or 50.9% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5 minute scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5-minute scale.

The index formed a tight rectangle top chart pattern today (Wednesday). I show that by the two parallel red lines on the chart.

Price breaks out upward 63% of the time from the chart pattern, so that’s what I’m expected on Thursday. The above probabilities agree with that assessment. Of course, anything can happen but that’s the way to bet.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day’s high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences),
the area might act as support or resistance.

— Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2019 ThePatternSite.com    Metric   Value   Diff   Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2   7,919.07      
 Monthly S1   8,242.87   323.80   
 Weekly S2   8,464.48   221.61   
 Monthly Pivot   8,474.39   9.91   
 Weekly S1   8,515.58   41.19   
 Daily S2   8,535.48   19.90   
 Daily S1   8,551.07   15.60   
 Low   8,552.38   1.31   Yes! The Low is close to the Daily S1.
 Open   8,557.45   5.07   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High   8,564.79   7.34   
 Close   8,566.67   1.88   Yes! The Close is close to the 61.8% Down from Intraday High.
 Daily Pivot   8,567.98   1.31   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the Close.
 50% Down from Intraday High   8,568.63   0.65   Yes! The 50% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High   8,572.46   3.83   
 Daily R1   8,583.57   11.11   
 High   8,584.88   1.31   Yes! The High is close to the Daily R1.
 Daily R2   8,600.48   15.60   
 Weekly Pivot   8,610.74   10.27   
 Weekly R1   8,661.84   51.09   
 Weekly R2   8,757.00   95.17   
 Monthly R1   8,798.19   41.19   
 Monthly R2   9,029.71   231.52   


Wednesday 12/4/19. A Look At Indicators

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

As you can see, the indicator is signaling a red bar on the far right of the chart. It’s changed the green bar (bullish) of a few months ago into a bearish signal with today’s (Tuesday’s) big drop.

However, a large recovery could remove the signal and that can happen for up to a week. So we won’t really know if this is as bearish as it seems.

It’s my feeling that this is a temporary setback. It’s all China trade war related and fears of that come and go. So this will blow over shortly unless Trump wants to deflect more from
impeachment.

Picture of the percent down indicators

The red line is the percentage of stocks at least 20% below their 1-year high (plotted upside down). The blue line is the average percentage drop of stocks below their 1-year high (plotted upside down).

Shown as a red line on the above chart…

On Tuesday, 29% of stocks in my database are in bear market territory (down at least 20% from their 1-year high).

A week ago, it was 26%.

The fewest was 25% on 11/27/2019.

And the most was 80% on 12/24/2018.

Shown as a blue line on the above chart…

The 482 stocks in my database are down an average of 16% from their yearly high.

A week ago, the average was 15%.

The peak was 14% on 11/27/2019.

And the bottom was 33% on 12/24/2018.

Both lines turned down this week compared to a week ago. They are following the index lower.

I am a bit surprised that the more sensitive red line dropped three percentage points from a week ago. That’s a big move, suggesting a weakening general market. And maybe that means
this retrace has legs.

Of course, time will answer that. It’s been 2 months without a significant retrace, so one is overdue.

As I read over my notes, the prior chart suggests a temporary setback in the China trade war. But this chart says a retrace is overdue and might be lasting. I think I’ve covered the ground
adequately! Smiley I’ll let you decide which interpretation you like best.

— Thomas Bulkowski

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Tuesday 12/3/19. Slider Quiz! More Scallops

The index dropped by -1.0% or -268.37 points. Since 10/01/1928 the index made 374 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day’s…

     Average gain was 0.7% on 183 occasions.

     Average loss was -0.8% on 191 occasions.

Expect the index to close lower 51.1% of the time.

Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:

     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 196/333 or 58.9% of the time.

     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 38/76 or 50.0% of the time.

$ $ $

I show a another slider quiz featuring the inverted and ascending scallop chart pattern.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day’s high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences),
the area might act as support or resistance.

— Thomas Bulkowski

Top

© 2019 ThePatternSite.com    Metric   Value   Diff   Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2   26,165.27      
 Monthly S1   26,974.16   808.88   
 Daily S2   27,564.25   590.10   
 Monthly Pivot   27,574.56   10.31   Yes! The Monthly Pivot is close to the Daily S2.
 Daily S1   27,673.65   99.08   
 Weekly S2   27,701.39   27.75   Yes! The Weekly S2 is close to the Daily S1.
 Weekly S1   27,742.22   40.82   
 Low   27,782.35   40.13   
 Close   27,783.04   0.69   Yes! The Close is close to the Low.
 Daily Pivot   27,891.74   108.71   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High   27,907.45   15.71   Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 50% Down from Intraday High   27,946.10   38.64   
 Weekly Pivot   27,958.59   12.50   Yes! The Weekly Pivot is close to the 50% Down from Intraday High.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High   27,984.74   26.14   Yes! The 38.2% Down from Intraday High is close to the Weekly Pivot.
 Weekly R1   27,999.42   14.68   Yes! The Weekly R1 is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High.
 Daily R1   28,001.14   1.72   Yes! The Daily R1 is close to the Weekly R1.
 Open   28,109.74   108.60   
 High   28,109.84   0.10   Yes! The High is close to the Open.
 Weekly R2   28,215.79   105.95   
 Daily R2   28,219.23   3.44   Yes! The Daily R2 is close to the Weekly R2.
 Monthly R1   28,383.45   164.21   
 Monthly R2   28,983.85   600.41   

 

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Bulkowski’s Blog: November 2019 As of 11/07/2019   Indus: 27,675 +182.24 +0.7%     Trans: 11,091 +61.33 +0.6%     Utils: 838 ...

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