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Chart Pattern Indicator: What's It Say?…

Blog: September 2020

Bulkowski's Blog: ThePatternSite.com

As of 09/04/2020

  Indus: 28,133 -159.42 -0.6%  

  Trans: 11,226 +56.94 +0.5%  

  Utils: 804 -4.42 -0.5%  

  Nasdaq: 11,313 -144.97 -1.3%  

  S&P 500: 3,427 -28.10 -0.8%  

YTD

-1.4%  

 +3.0%  

-8.6%  

 +26.1%  

 +6.1%  

  Up arrow29,350 or 27,800 by 09/15/2020
  Up arrow11,600 or 10,600 by 09/15/2020
  Up arrow845 or 775 by 09/15/2020
  Up arrow12,500 or 11,500 by 09/15/2020
  Up arrow3,650 or 3,350 by 09/15/2020

As of 09/04/2020

  Indus: 28,133 -159.42 -0.6%  

  Trans: 11,226 +56.94 +0.5%  

  Utils: 804 -4.42 -0.5%  

  Nasdaq: 11,313 -144.97 -1.3%  

  S&P 500: 3,427 -28.10 -0.8%  

YTD

-1.4%  

 +3.0%  

-8.6%  

 +26.1%  

 +6.1%  

  Up arrow29,350 or 27,800 by 09/15/2020
  Up arrow11,600 or 10,600 by 09/15/2020
  Up arrow845 or 775 by 09/15/2020
  Up arrow12,500 or 11,500 by 09/15/2020
  Up arrow3,650 or 3,350 by 09/15/2020

 


Monday 9/7/20. Site Support

If you wish to support the website, then try one of these options.

  1. Perhaps the best way is come to this site and click on an image of one of my books. You’ll find the images at the bottom of the page. The click will take
    you to
    Amazon.com.
    The link passes a code to them and I receive a small referral fee but only if you buy something while there. You do NOT need to buy the book. It’s just a vehicle to get you to Amazon with the referral
    code.

    So each time you want to use Amazon.com to buy something, come to this site first. The referral is free, it’s easy, and it supports this site.

    Unfortunately, I think this approach only works for those in the United States.

  2. You can click on an ad. Please don’t click on them just to run up the score. Google frowns on that. If you see something of interest, then click the ad and visit their site.
    Ad sales are where most of the financial support for the site comes from. Some of you may have to turn off your ad blocker to see the ads.
  3. Finally, you can donate to the site directly. The home page (and some other pages as well) has a Donate link at the bottom of it.

$ $ $

Here’s a symbol list of 150 chart and candlestick patterns (13 “investment grade” candle patterns) found in today’s securities using my version of Patternz:
AXDX, ACIW, ADTN, AJRD, ATSG, ALKS, AYX, DOX, AFG, AMAT, ATR, AWI, ATO, BMI, BECN, BIIB, BRKS, BBW, CPB, CENX, CF, CHS, CIEN, CSCO, CTXS, CLNE, CL, CMCO, CAG, GLW, COST, CRH, DFS, D, BOOM, EIX, WIRE, EOG, EQT, EL, EXPD, FAST, FFG, FIVN, GL, GPRO, EVRG, HQY, HNI, HOV, IEX, ITW, ILMN, INFN, IIIN, INTC, IPAR, IBKR, IVC, JCOM, JAZZ, JNJ, KALU, KELYA, KMT, KSS, LZB, LAWS, LEG, LDOS, MTSI, M, MRO, MTRN, MDT, MGEE, MU, CNR, NKE, NBL, JWN, NVDA, OXY, OLN, ASGN, PANW, PAYX, PINC, PFG, PGR, PRU, REV, RNG, RLI, RES, SIGI, SWN, STMP, SXI, SCS, SSYS, AMTD, TECH, TXT, RIG, UNM, VLO, VRSN, IAI, IYE, IYH, EWO, EWZ, EIS, EWW, EWS, EWP, IBB, DBA, PBE, PJP, PHO, IXC, IXN, XLP, XLE, XLV. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

— Thomas Bulkowski

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Friday 9/4/20. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

$ $ $

Here’s a symbol list of 243 chart and candlestick patterns (13 “investment grade” candle patterns) found in today’s securities using my version of Patternz:
ANF, AXDX, ADTN, AMD, AES, ATSG, AYX, DOX, AEE, AEL, AFG, AMGN, APA, AAPL, AMAT, ATR, AWI, ASH, AIZ, AGO, ADSK, AVA, BMI, BCPC, BECN, BIIB, BA, EPAY, BMY, BRKS, BBW, CBT, CE, CNC, CENX, CF, CHS, CIEN, CSCO, CNA, CNO, CGNX, CL, ED, CAG, COP, COST, CR, CRH, CSGS, CTS, CW, DECK, XRAY, DDS, DFS, ^DJT, DTE, EMR, WIRE, EIGI, EOG, EL, RE, EXPD, FAST, FFG, FDX, FOE, FE, FIVN, FLS, GL, GPRO, EVRG, GFF, HBI, HSC, HQY, HSII, HNI, HD, HON, HOV, HUBG, JBHT, HURC, IEX, IDXX, ITW, ILMN, INCY, INFN, IIIN, INTC, INTU, IVC, JCOM, JAZZ, JBLU, JNJ, KALU, KELYA, KSS, KLIC, LZB, LH, LRCX, LAWS, LEG, LDOS, MTSI, M, MRO, MTRN, MTRX, MDT, MU, MLHR, MCO, MYL, CNR, NTGR, NJR, NWL, NKE, NBL, JWN, OLN, OMC, ASGN, OTEX, PANW, PKE, PAYX, PDLI, PRFT, PFE, PICO, PINC, PFG, PG, PGR, KWR, DGX, RL, RGS, REV, RLI, RHI, ROG, SCHW, SEIC, SIGI, SCCO, SWX, STMP, SXI, SSYS, SUM, SRDX, AMTD, TXT, TG, UNM, VLO, VRSN, VRTX, V, WRB, WAT, WSO, WWW, XLNX, ZBRA, IAI, IHI, IHE, QTEC, BOTZ, IYH, IYF, EWO, EWK, EWZ, EWQ, EIS, EWW, EZA, EWP, EWD, EWL, THD, TUR, IBB, PPA, PBE, PEJ, PXJ, PHO, ROBO, IXC, ILF, MXI, XLP, XLF, GLD, XLV, XHB, XLI, USO, SMH, VHT. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

The following patterns were found manually, not using Patternz. Mr. Bulkowski has excluded any securities he owns from appearing in the list. However, he may add any of the securities listed to his portfolio at any time, just as you can.

There were 22 patterns found this week (excluding pipe bottoms; pipe tops and bottoms are found looking back 2 weeks) out of 581 stocks searched, or 3.8%. Based on the percentage, the stock market is
trending
since few consolidation patterns appear.

I found 5 pipe bottom chart patterns, which is neutral. High numbers of pipe bottoms can signal a bullish move (I see many of them just before a bear market ends or during a bear market rally. Often it means the first bottom of a double bottom has formed. Thus, expect a move down to the second bottom).

Excluding ETFs, there were 17 bullish chart patterns this week and 6 bearish ones with any remaining (4) being undecided.
The ratio of bullish to bearish patterns suggests the market is hinting of a coming bullish (up) turn.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

For details about the chart patterns, click here.

— Thomas Bulkowski

 

 Symbol  Chart Pattern  Bullish 
 Bearish 
Start End Industry
AEL Triangle, symmetrical        08/07/2020 09/03/2020 Insurance (Life)
AVY Triangle, descending        07/23/2020 09/01/2020 Packaging and Container
CENX Pipe bottom        08/17/2020 08/24/2020 Metals and Mining (Div.)
CHS Horn top        08/10/2020 08/24/2020 Apparel
CIEN Dead-cat bounce        09/03/2020 09/03/2020 Telecom. Equipment
ETFC Triangle, ascending        07/09/2020 09/02/2020 Securities Brokerage
EXC Double Bottom, Adam and Adam        08/21/2020 09/01/2020 Electric Utility (East)
GME Flag, high and tight        07/20/2020 09/03/2020 Retail (Special Lines)
IT Triangle, ascending        08/11/2020 09/03/2020 IT Services
HOV Flag, high and tight        07/14/2020 09/03/2020 Homebuilding
INFN Dead-cat bounce        09/03/2020 09/03/2020 Telecom. Equipment
IBP Rectangle top        08/10/2020 08/31/2020 Retail Building Supply
IPAR Triangle, symmetrical        08/11/2020 09/03/2020 Toiletries/Cosmetics
KLAC Triple top        08/17/2020 09/02/2020 Semiconductor Cap Equip.
LAWS Pipe bottom        08/17/2020 08/24/2020 Metal Fabricating
LOW Double Top, Adam and Adam        08/27/2020 09/02/2020 Retail Building Supply
MCHX Triangle, symmetrical        08/13/2020 09/03/2020 Advertising
MAS Double Top, Adam and Eve        08/18/2020 09/02/2020 Building Materials
MU Pipe bottom        08/17/2020 08/24/2020 Semiconductor
MS Triangle, ascending        07/16/2020 09/01/2020 Securities Brokerage
OLN Pipe bottom        08/17/2020 08/24/2020 Chemical (Basic)
RL Triangle, symmetrical        07/24/2020 09/01/2020 Apparel
RGS Dead-cat bounce        08/31/2020 08/31/2020 Toiletries/Cosmetics
SKX Triangle, symmetrical        08/07/2020 09/03/2020 Shoe
TDOC Double Top, Adam and Adam        08/21/2020 09/02/2020 Healthcare Information
VLO Triangle, symmetrical        06/19/2020 09/03/2020 Petroleum (Integrated)
WEX Pipe bottom        08/17/2020 08/24/2020 Information Services

 

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Thursday 9/3/20. Nasdaq Trending Up

The index climbed by 1.0% or 116.77 points. Since 02/05/1971 the index made 238 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day’s…

     Average gain was 0.9% on 153 occasions.

     Average loss was -0.8% on 85 occasions.

Expect the index to close higher 64.3% of the time.

Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:

     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 196/350 or 56.0% of the time.

     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 56/114 or 49.1% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5 minute scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5-minute scale.

The first thing that struck me when I looked at the pic of the Nasdaq on the 10-day chart is how it has climbed steadily.

I measured the slope of trendlines and found that they perform best when they are in the 30 degree range, but 45 is fine, too. The more shallow they are, the better they seem to work.

The Nasdaq is at the perfect angle. I drew two parallel lines to form a channel. What it shows is obvious, that the index is rising.

Will it continue? Let’s find out by waiting…

$ $ $

Here’s a symbol list of 164 chart and candlestick patterns (13 “investment grade” candle patterns) found in today’s securities using my version of Patternz:
ANF, ACN, ACIW, AMD, AYX, ABC, APA, AAPL, ATR, ARW, ASH, AIZ, AXS, BMI, BLL, BIO, BIIB, BOOT, BRC, BBW, CACI, CAL, CENX, CF, CHS, CLF, ED, CLR, GLW, DVN, DFS, ^DJI, DOV, DTE, ETFC, EIGI, EOG, EQT, XOM, FEYE, FE, FIVN, FMC, FCX, FRD, GILD, GOOGL, GPRO, EVRG, GES, HSC, HIG, HL, HSII, HSIC, HSY, HNI, HOV, IIIN, INTC, TILE, JCOM, KBH, KMT, KSS, LZB, LANC, LAWS, LLY, LOW, LXU, MHO, M, MRO, MTRX, MU, MLHR, MCO, MS, MLI, MYL, NOV, CNR, JWN, NUS, OLN, OMCL, ASGN, OXM, PANW, PTEN, PYPL, PCG, POL, PG, PEG, PHM, RL, RMBS, REV, ROK, ROG, ^GSPC, SEIC, SIGI, SMTC, SHW, SCCO, SWN, SXI, SCS, SSYS, TPX, TXN, RIG, TG, VMI, VEEV, VRSN, WLK, WDAY, XLNX, IYM, IYC, IHE, DDM, QTEC, BOTZ, IYZ, SOXX, EWA, EWZ, ECH, EWQ, EIS, EWJ, EWL, PBE, PXJ, PHO, ROBO, IEV, SSO, MXI, XLY, XLP, XHB, XLB, XRT, SPY, USO, SMH. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day’s high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences),
the area might act as support or resistance.

— Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2020 ThePatternSite.com    Metric   Value   Diff   Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2   9,821.89      
 Monthly S1   10,939.16   1,117.28   
 Weekly S2   11,262.18   323.02   
 Monthly Pivot   11,334.59   72.41   
 Weekly S1   11,659.31   324.72   
 Weekly Pivot   11,694.66   35.35   
 Daily S2   11,751.01   56.35   
 Low   11,836.18   85.17   
 Daily S1   11,903.73   67.55   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High   11,927.05   23.32   Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily S1.
 50% Down from Intraday High   11,955.12   28.07   
 38.2% Down from Intraday High   11,983.19   28.07   
 Daily Pivot   11,988.89   5.70   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High.
 Open   12,047.26   58.37   
 Close   12,056.44   9.18   Yes! The Close is close to the Open.
 High   12,074.06   17.62   Yes! The High is close to the Close.
 Weekly R1   12,091.79   17.73   Yes! The Weekly R1 is close to the High.
 Weekly R2   12,127.14   35.35   
 Daily R1   12,141.61   14.47   Yes! The Daily R1 is close to the Weekly R2.
 Daily R2   12,226.77   85.17   
 Monthly R1   12,451.86   225.09   
 Monthly R2   12,847.29   395.42   

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Wednesday 9/2/20. Indicators: Bearish, but Who’s Listening?

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

The indicator tried to turn bullish but failed to today (Tuesday). As the chart shows, it’s still bearish (neutral, really). The vertical red bar on the far right of the chart confirms this.

It suggests the market is going to dive, but the tech stocks are ignoring the warning and soaring out of sight. There’s a crash in them coming, I think, but I haven’t specially checked
on them. So that’s a guess, but the Nasdaq index seems to be in overdrive (Note: I’m talking about the Nasdaq, not the S&P, which the chart shows).

Picture of the percent down indicators

The red line is the percentage of stocks at least 20% below their 1-year high (plotted upside down). The blue line is the average percentage drop of stocks below their 1-year high (plotted upside down).

Shown as a red line on the above chart…

On Tuesday, 46% of stocks in my database are in bear market territory (down at least 20% from their 1-year high).

A week ago, it was 46%.

The fewest was 19% on 01/16/2020.

And the most was 97% on 03/23/2020.

Shown as a blue line on the above chart…

The 474 stocks in my database are down an average of 21% from their yearly high.

A week ago, the average was 21%.

The peak was 11% on 01/16/2020.

And the bottom was 47% on 03/23/2020.

The red indicator line shows bearish divergence and it’s quite pronounced. It’s heading lower even as the index continues to rise. I mentioned this before (last week) but bearish divergence can last for
months before something significant happens.

The above numbers says that nothing has changed from last week.

The two charts are bearish. The prior chart is showing signs of turning bullish again. This one is bearish with that divergence I talked about. Something has to give. My guess is we’re going
to see the tech stocks get clipped. Maybe not soon but when it happens, there’s going to be a rush for the exits and the Nasdaq is going to get hammered. And probably for more than a day.

$ $ $

Here’s a symbol list of 188 chart and candlestick patterns (13 “investment grade” candle patterns) found in today’s securities using my version of Patternz:
AMD, AJRD, AFL, APD, ATSG, ALRM, AYX, ABC, AMAT, ATR, ARCB, ADM, AWI, ASH, ATO, AXS, BMI, BLL, BSET, BKNG, BRC, BBW, CBT, CAL, CPB, CE, CENX, CF, CRL, CVX, CHS, CNO, CMCO, ED, CAG, CR, CCRN, CTS, DFS, EMN, EBAY, WIRE, EOG, XOM, EZPW, FICO, FIVN, FTNT, FWRD, GME, GPS, GE, GPRO, EVRG, GES, HL, HUBG, HURC, IEX, IBP, IBKR, TILE, INTU, JCOM, JNJ, KALU, KSS, LAWS, LEG, LLY, M, MAN, MRO, MCHX, MTRN, MU, MSFT, MCO, MLI, MYL, CNR, NKE, NI, NBL, JWN, NWPX, OXY, OLN, ASGN, OXM, PKG, PANW, PDCO, PYPL, POL, PPG, PFG, PEG, DGX, REV, RLI, RHI, ROG, ROST, RES, SIGI, SWN, SR, SXI, SCS, SSYS, TDOC, TDC, TKR, TJX, TSCO, SLCA, VLO, VEEV, WMT, WEX, WWW, XLNX, IYM, IYC, IYE, IHE, IDU, DDM, FDN, QTEC, IGV, EWZ, ECH, EZA, TUR, EWU, PBE, PXJ, PJP, XLE, XLI, XLB, XLU. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

— Thomas Bulkowski

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Tuesday 9/1/20. 2020 Market Forecast September Update

The index dropped by -0.8% or -223.82 points. Since 10/01/1928 the index made 516 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day’s…

     Average gain was 0.7% on 271 occasions.

     Average loss was -0.9% on 245 occasions.

Expect the index to close higher 52.5% of the time.

Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:

     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 212/366 or 57.9% of the time.

     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 40/80 or 50.0% of the time.

$ $ $

Here’s the updated 2020 forecast for September, presented in slider format.

Based on sector performance from Fidelity, the best performing sectors for year to date performance as of 31 August 2020 were…
(The numbering is how they ranked a month ago.)

1. Information technology (+34.8%),

2. Consumer discretionary (+27.1%),

3. Communication services (+15.1%),

4. Health care (+6.0%),

5. Consumer staples (+3.8%),

6. Materials (+2.6%),

9. Industrials (-4.6%),

8. Real estate (-6.6%),

7. Utilities (-8.8%),

10. Financials (-18.7%),

11. and dead last is energy (-41.6%).

Here’s how they rank the industries, but only the top 10 appear. Year to date returns. The numbering is how they ranked a month ago.

1. Internet & direct marketing retail (+75.2%),

2. Technology hardware, storage & Peripherals (+67.8%),

3. Software (+43.74%),

6. Air freight and logistics (37.8%)

7. Interactive media & Services (+30.5%),

4. Metals & mining (+27.8%),

8. Semiconductors & semiconductor equipment (+23.9%),

?. Entertainment (+20.5%),

5. Life sciences tools & Services (+20.4%),

9. Trading Companies & Distributors (+18.1%),

10. Specialty retail (+17.9%),

$ $ $

Here’s a symbol list of 163 chart and candlestick patterns (13 “investment grade” candle patterns) found in today’s securities using my version of Patternz:
ABT, AXDX, ACN, AJRD, AES, AFL, ALRM, AA, ADS, AMED, AEL, AXP, AMWD, ANIK, ARCB, AWI, ARW, ASH, AVY, AXS, BLL, BECN, BIG, BBW, CBT, CALM, CE, CNC, CVX, CHD, CLNE, CLX, CLR, COTY, CRH, CCK, CTS, DFS, ^DJI, EMN, EIGI, EQT, FIS, FLS, FWRD, FCX, GME, IT, GE, GNW, GPN, GPRO, HAYN, HSII, HP, HON, HOV, HUBG, JBHT, HURC, IDA, IDXX, IPAR, IPI, JKHY, JNJ, KELYA, MTSI, MANH, MRO, MAS, MA, MTRN, MS, MOS, MUR, CNR, NJR, NUS, OXY, ORI, OTEX, PKG, PDCO, PTEN, PCG, PPL, PINC, PFG, RGS, REV, RHI, ROG, RES, CRM, SIGI, NOW, SHW, SKX, TECH, TDC, TER, TEVA, TMO, SLCA, UNM, VLO, VRSN, VC, WU, WLK, WEX, WMB, ZBRA, IYM, IYC, DDM, IYH, IAT, SLV, IGE, IYF, EWK, EWZ, EWC, ECH, EWG, EWM, EWY, EWL, EWT, TUR, IBB, PBE, PEJ, PHO, MXI, XLE, XLF, XLV, VHT. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

— Thomas Bulkowski

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Forecast Update…

Blog: June 2020 As of 06/04/2020   Indus: 26,282 +11.93 +0.0%     Trans: 9,575 +134.48 +1.4%     Utils: 814 -17.21 -2.1%   ...

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