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Chart Pattern Indicator: What's It Say?…

Bulkowski’s Blog: September 2019

Bulkowski's Blog: ThePatternSite.com

As of 09/06/2019

  Indus: 26,797 +69.31 +0.3%  

  Trans: 10,303 -67.00 -0.6%  

  Utils: 848 -1.15 -0.1%  

  Nasdaq: 8,103 -13.76 -0.2%  

  S&P 500: 2,979 +2.71 +0.1%  

YTD

 +14.9%  

 +12.3%  

 +19.0%  

 +22.1%  

 +18.8%  

  Up arrow27,200 or 25,400 by 09/15/2019
  Up arrow10,700 or 9,550 by 09/15/2019
  Up arrow870 or 820 by 09/15/2019
  Up arrow8,300 or 7,700 by 09/15/2019
  Up arrow3,000 or 2,800 by 09/15/2019

As of 09/06/2019

  Indus: 26,797 +69.31 +0.3%  

  Trans: 10,303 -67.00 -0.6%  

  Utils: 848 -1.15 -0.1%  

  Nasdaq: 8,103 -13.76 -0.2%  

  S&P 500: 2,979 +2.71 +0.1%  

YTD

 +14.9%  

 +12.3%  

 +19.0%  

 +22.1%  

 +18.8%  

  Up arrow27,200 or 25,400 by 09/15/2019
  Up arrow10,700 or 9,550 by 09/15/2019
  Up arrow870 or 820 by 09/15/2019
  Up arrow8,300 or 7,700 by 09/15/2019
  Up arrow3,000 or 2,800 by 09/15/2019

 


Monday 9/9/19. Market Monday: The Week Ahead

My Prediction

Picture of the Dow transports on the daily scale.

I show the Dow transports on the daily scale.

Price at A forms a double bottom. It confirms as a valid chart pattern when the index closes above the top of the pattern at horizontal line C.

So now what happens?

Price should rise, but how far? If we could answer that question accurately, repeatedly, we’d all be rich.

Here’s my take, based on a trade in Southwest Air a long time ago, or rather my avoiding a trade in LUV a long time ago.

I drew a trendline sloping down from the highest high on the chart. In the LUV trade, I measured the distance from where price was then to the red line. The red line represented overhead
resistance and I knew or suspected that the stock would hit turbulence and stall.

And that’s exactly what happened. So I avoided either a losing trade or a tiny profit trade.

If the Dow transports follows my prediction, it’ll rise to the red line and head lower. I show that with the green arrow.

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A Brief Look Back

Picture of a flower from my garden.

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

Tuesday: Down 285.26 points.

Wednesday: Up 237.45 points.

Thursday: Up 372.68 points.

Friday: Up 69.31 points.

Saturday: Holiday or other weird event!

For the Week…

The Dow industrials were up 394.18 points or 1.5%.

The Nasdaq composite was up 140.19 points or 1.8%.

The S&P 500 index was up 52.25 points or 1.8%.

Year to Date…

Dow Industrials

     2.2% down from the high of 27,398.68 on 07/16/2019.

     18.4% up from the low of 22,638.41 on 01/03/2019.

Nasdaq

     2.8% down from the high of 8,339.64 on 07/26/2019.

     25.5% up from the low of 6,457.13 on 01/03/2019.

S&P 500

     1.6% down from the high of 3,027.98 on 07/26/2019.

     21.9% up from the low of 2,443.96 on 01/03/2019.

Options Expiration

No options expire this week.

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Swing and Position Traders: Chart Pattern Indicator

As of 09/06/2019, the CPI had:

8 bearish patterns,

28 bullish patterns,

260 patterns waiting for breakout.

The CPI signal is 77.8%, which is
bullish (>= 65%).

The chart pattern indicator is bullish
with 2 of 3 full triangles showing (). Additional triangles are a measure
of strength with solid triangles meaning a more reliable signal than half triangles.

Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, “Take a
two-dimensional approach.” He offers these tips.

Index S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2
Dow Industrials (^DJI): Daily   26,636   26,717   26,789   26,869   26,941 
Weekly   25,663   26,230   26,546   27,113   27,428 
Monthly   24,811   25,804   26,333   27,326   27,854 
S&P500 (^GSPC): Daily   2,966   2,972   2,979   2,985   2,991 
Weekly   2,858   2,918   2,952   3,012   3,046 
Monthly   2,765   2,872   2,929   3,036   3,093 
Nasdaq (^IXIC): Daily   8,076   8,090   8,112   8,125   8,148 
Weekly   7,741   7,922   8,028   8,209   8,315 
Monthly   7,495   7,799   7,967   8,271   8,438 
  • Seekinger doesn’t look at the range of S2 to R2 as support and resistance levels. Rather, he considers them oversold (S) and overbought (R) areas.
  • S2 to R2 range of values across daily, weekly, and monthly periods: If two values are close together then they lend more significance to the area.
  • If the market trends on day 1, the odds rise tremendously that the market will be range bound between daily S1 and daily R1 the next day.
  • In a quiet market when traders are waiting for an important earnings announcement or economic report, look for daily R1 and S1 levels to hold and for the market to return to the daily pivot.
  • A move outside of daily R1 or S1 usually does not mean a breakout.
  • The odds suggest that the entire week’s price action will remain between weekly R2 and S2.
  • Avoid going long when the market moves above weekly R2 (it’s overbought) and avoid going short when price moves below weekly S2 (oversold).
  • Consider going short at weekly R1 or long at weekly S1 with a profit objective of the weekly pivot.
  • Consider going long at weekly S2 or short at weekly R2 with a profit objective of weekly S1 or R1, respectively.

Here are the formulas:

Pivot point: P = (H + L + C)/3

First resistance level: R1 = (2 * P) – L

First support level: S1 = (2 * P) – H)

Second resistance level: R2 = P + (R1 – S1)

Second support level: S2 = P – (R1 – S1)

H = high price , L=low price, C=closing price

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Consecutive Price Trends

Index  Consecutive
Closes So Far 
%  Comments 
 Dow industrials (^DJI)  2 weeks up  34.2%   The trend may continue. 
  1 month up  54.7%   Expect a random direction. 
 S & P 500 (^GSPC)  2 weeks up  35.5%   The trend may continue. 
  1 month up  56.0%   Expect a random direction. 
 Nasdaq composite (^IXIC)  2 weeks up  35.3%   The trend may continue. 
  1 month up  47.6%   Expect a random direction. 

How long can an index close higher (or lower) each day? The adjacent table shows how often consecutive up or down closes occur in the indices, based on the most recent trend of closes.

Low percentages suggest the market is overdue to turn (think of it as the likelihood that next week or next month will continue the trend, based on historical performance). Values of 50% mean random, so most percentages will be lower.

The analysis uses data going back 10 years for weekly percentages and 25 years for monthly percentages (or the start of data, whichever is more recent). Any unchanged closing price is interpreted as the end of the string of consecutive up or down closes.

Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season is over.

 Found  Chart Pattern Name
29 Double Bottom, Adam and Adam
20 Triangle, symmetrical
12 Double Bottom, Adam and Eve
12 Head-and-shoulders bottom
11 Pipe bottom
9 Triangle, ascending
9 Triple bottom
9 Double Bottom, Eve and Eve
6 Diamond bottom
6 Dead-cat bounce

Large numbers of bullish or bearish chart patterns can signal short- to intermediate-term market trends (many bullish chart patterns can mean an uptrend will continue, for example).
However, please realize that the short-term price trend could have changed since the pattern was discovered (this is especially true of pipe tops or bottoms, which are weekly patterns).

The 10 types of most frequently appearing chart patterns in the stocks, indices, and long-only exchange traded funds I follow during the last month are shown in the adjacent table.

The industries I follow were the best (rank 1) and worst performing.

This Week Last Week
1. Cement and Aggregates 1. Cement and Aggregates
2. IT Services 2. Financial Services
3. Financial Services 3. IT Services
4. Homebuilding 4. Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
5. Telecom. Equipment 5. Information Services


— Thomas Bulkowski

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Friday 9/6/19. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

Go to Table.

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

Click the link for a list of symbols from the table.

The following patterns were found manually, so the results may differ from those found using Patternz.

There were 34 patterns found this week (excluding pipe bottoms; pipe tops and bottoms are found looking back 2 weeks) out of 588 stocks searched, or 5.8%. Based on the percentage, the stock market is
trending
since few consolidation patterns appear.

Excluding ETFs, there were 24 bullish chart patterns this week and 3 bearish ones with any remaining (5) being undecided.
The ratio of bullish to bearish patterns suggests the market is bullish.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

More…

— Thomas Bulkowski

 

Symbol Chart Pattern Bullish
Bearish
Start End Industry
APA Double Bottom, Adam and Adam        08/15/2019 09/03/2019 Petroleum (Producing)
APOG Rectangle bottom        08/14/2019 09/05/2019 Building Materials
ADP Triangle, ascending        08/05/2019 09/04/2019 IT Services
AVA Rising wedge        07/31/2019 09/03/2019 Electric Utility (West)
BLDR Triangle, symmetrical        08/08/2019 09/05/2019 Retail Building Supply
CF Diamond bottom        08/14/2019 09/05/2019 Chemical (Basic)
COP Head-and-shoulders bottom        08/15/2019 09/03/2019 Petroleum (Integrated)
CR Head-and-shoulders bottom        08/15/2019 09/03/2019 Diversified Co.
CMI Head-and-shoulders bottom        08/14/2019 09/03/2019 Machinery
FDS Triangle, descending        08/07/2019 08/30/2019 Information Services
HBI Double Bottom, Adam and Adam        08/15/2019 09/03/2019 Apparel
HRS Triangle, ascending        08/08/2019 09/05/2019 Telecom. Equipment
HOV Flag, high and tight        08/14/2019 09/05/2019 Homebuilding
INFN Flag, high and tight        07/09/2019 08/30/2019 Telecom. Equipment
KLIC Head-and-shoulders bottom        08/15/2019 09/03/2019 Semiconductor Cap Equip.
LZB Diamond bottom        08/05/2019 09/05/2019 Furn/Home Furnishings
LEG Double Bottom, Adam and Adam        08/28/2019 09/03/2019 Furn/Home Furnishings
MA Triangle, ascending        07/29/2019 08/30/2019 Financial Services
MSFT Triangle, ascending        08/05/2019 08/30/2019 Computer Software and Svcs
MCO Triangle, ascending        08/01/2019 09/05/2019 Information Services
^IXIC Triangle, symmetrical        08/05/2019 08/30/2019 None
NTGR Triangle, ascending        07/26/2019 09/05/2019 Telecom. Equipment
NE Flag, high and tight        08/15/2019 09/05/2019 Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
NUS Triangle, symmetrical        08/07/2019 09/03/2019 Toiletries/Cosmetics
PANW Double Bottom, Eve and Eve        08/19/2019 09/04/2019 Computer Software and Svcs
RTN Triangle, descending        08/05/2019 09/05/2019 Aerospace/Defense
ROK Head-and-shoulders bottom        08/15/2019 09/03/2019 Diversified Co.
ROST Triangle, ascending        07/02/2019 09/04/2019 Retail (Special Lines)
TXN Triple bottom        08/23/2019 09/03/2019 Semiconductor
TRV Triangle, symmetrical        08/09/2019 09/03/2019 Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
VRSN Triangle, symmetrical        08/05/2019 09/05/2019 Internet
V Triangle, ascending        08/01/2019 08/30/2019 Financial Services
QQQ Triangle, symmetrical        08/05/2019 09/03/2019 Long ETFs
XAR Triangle, ascending        07/31/2019 09/04/2019 Aerospace/Defense

 

Weekly screen for chart patterns ending between 08/29/2019 and 09/05/2019. Many may be still in development. If no securities appear, then I have not identified any new patterns.

Definitions

RS is relative strength (where 1 is best). For other definitions, see the glossary.

’Breakout is upward/downward 100% of the time’ means price breaks out up/down by definition, not by statistically measuring the rate.

All numbers assume a bull market and are based on the breakout direction that occurs most often.

 

Apache Corp. (APA)

Industry: Petroleum (Producing)

Industry RS rank: 58 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 539 out of 583

9/5/19 close: $22.67

1 Month avg volatility: $0.84. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $20.57 or 9.3% below the close.

Change YTD: -13.64%

Volume: 4,962,100 shares.
3 month avg: 3,367,409 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.

 

Chart pattern: Double Bottom, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 08/15/2019 to 09/03/2019

Breakout is upward 100% of the time.

Average rise: 35%.

Break-even failure rate: 5%.

Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Apogee Enterprises (APOG)

Industry: Building Materials

Industry RS rank: 24 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 242 out of 583

9/5/19 close: $36.77

1 Month avg volatility: $0.93. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $38.90 or 5.8% above the close.

Change YTD: 23.18%

Volume: 143,600 shares.
3 month avg: 243,183 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.

 

Chart pattern: Rectangle bottom continuation pattern from 08/14/2019 to 09/05/2019

Breakout is downward 55% of the time.

Average decline: 14%.

Break-even failure rate: 16%.

Pullbacks occur 69% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 50% of the time.

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Automatic Data Processing Inc (ADP)

Industry: IT Services

Industry RS rank: 1 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 147 out of 583

9/5/19 close: $173.27

1 Month avg volatility: $2.99. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $164.82 or 4.9% below the close.

Change YTD: 32.15%

Volume: 1,635,100 shares.
3 month avg: 2,140,888 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.

 

Chart pattern: Triangle, ascending reversal pattern from 08/05/2019 to 09/04/2019

Breakout is upward 70% of the time.

Average rise: 35%.

Break-even failure rate: 13%.

Throwbacks occur 57% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 75% of the time.

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Avista (AVA)

Industry: Electric Utility (West)

Industry RS rank: 17 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 96 out of 583

9/5/19 close: $47.54

1 Month avg volatility: $0.83. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $50.19 or 5.6% above the close.

Change YTD: 11.91%

Volume: 246,900 shares.
3 month avg: 396,820 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.

 

Chart pattern: Rising wedge reversal pattern from 07/31/2019 to 09/03/2019

Breakout is downward 69% of the time.

Average decline: 14%.

Break-even failure rate: 24%.

Pullbacks occur 63% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 46% of the time.

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Builders FirstSource, Inc (BLDR)

Industry: Retail Building Supply

Industry RS rank: 14 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 13 out of 583

9/5/19 close: $19.21

1 Month avg volatility: $0.53. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $17.95 or 6.6% below the close.

Change YTD: 76.08%

Volume: 1,044,800 shares.
3 month avg: 1,257,223 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.

 

Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 08/08/2019 to 09/05/2019

Breakout is upward 54% of the time.

Average rise: 31%.

Break-even failure rate: 9%.

Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (CF)

Industry: Chemical (Basic)

Industry RS rank: 8 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 121 out of 583

9/5/19 close: $48.17

1 Month avg volatility: $1.36. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $45.27 or 6.0% below the close.

Change YTD: 10.71%

Volume: 3,450,500 shares.
3 month avg: 3,754,700 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.

 

Chart pattern: Diamond bottom reversal pattern from 08/14/2019 to 09/05/2019

Breakout is upward 69% of the time.

Average rise: 36%.

Break-even failure rate: 4%.

Throwbacks occur 53% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 81% of the time.

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ConocoPhillips (COP)

Industry: Petroleum (Integrated)

Industry RS rank: 55 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 500 out of 583

9/5/19 close: $53.44

1 Month avg volatility: $1.31. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $50.66 or 5.2% below the close.

Change YTD: -14.29%

Volume: 6,014,500 shares.
3 month avg: 6,156,062 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.

 

Chart pattern: Head-and-shoulders bottom reversal pattern from 08/15/2019 to 09/03/2019

Breakout is upward 100% of the time.

Average rise: 38%.

Break-even failure rate: 3%.

Throwbacks occur 45% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 74% of the time.

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Crane Co (CR)

Industry: Diversified Co.

Industry RS rank: 35 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 384 out of 583

9/5/19 close: $77.91

1 Month avg volatility: $1.54. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $73.01 or 6.3% below the close.

Change YTD: 7.94%

Volume: 200,600 shares.
3 month avg: 293,374 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.

 

Chart pattern: Head-and-shoulders bottom reversal pattern from 08/15/2019 to 09/03/2019

Breakout is upward 100% of the time.

Average rise: 38%.

Break-even failure rate: 3%.

Throwbacks occur 45% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 74% of the time.

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Cummins Inc. (CMI)

Industry: Machinery

Industry RS rank: 32 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 304 out of 583

9/5/19 close: $154.66

1 Month avg volatility: $3.49. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $143.57 or 7.2% below the close.

Change YTD: 15.73%

Volume: 1,563,600 shares.
3 month avg: 1,327,631 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.

 

Chart pattern: Head-and-shoulders bottom reversal pattern from 08/14/2019 to 09/03/2019

Breakout is upward 100% of the time.

Average rise: 38%.

Break-even failure rate: 3%.

Throwbacks occur 45% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 74% of the time.

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FactSet Research Systems Inc (FDS)

Industry: Information Services

Industry RS rank: 10 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 122 out of 583

9/5/19 close: $273.84

1 Month avg volatility: $5.27. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $287.29 or 4.9% above the close.

Change YTD: 36.83%

Volume: 251,100 shares.
3 month avg: 411,949 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.

 

Chart pattern: Triangle, descending reversal pattern from 08/07/2019 to 08/30/2019

Breakout is downward 64% of the time.

Average decline: 16%.

Break-even failure rate: 16%.

Pullbacks occur 54% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 54% of the time.

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Hanesbrand Inc. (HBI)

Industry: Apparel

Industry RS rank: 56 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 499 out of 583

9/5/19 close: $14.33

1 Month avg volatility: $0.49. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $12.85 or 10.3% below the close.

Change YTD: 14.37%

Volume: 9,074,500 shares.
3 month avg: 6,164,918 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.

 

Chart pattern: Double Bottom, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 08/15/2019 to 09/03/2019

Breakout is upward 100% of the time.

Average rise: 35%.

Break-even failure rate: 5%.

Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Harris Corp (HRS)

Industry: Telecom. Equipment

Industry RS rank: 6 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 33 out of 583

9/5/19 close: $212.13

1 Month avg volatility: $4.09. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $203.65 or 4.0% below the close.

Change YTD: 57.54%

Volume: 1,449,300 shares.
3 month avg: 629,323 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.

 

Chart pattern: Triangle, ascending reversal pattern from 08/08/2019 to 09/05/2019

Breakout is upward 70% of the time.

Average rise: 35%.

Break-even failure rate: 13%.

Throwbacks occur 57% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 75% of the time.

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Hovnanian Enterprises Inc (HOV)

Industry: Homebuilding

Industry RS rank: 4 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 534 out of 583

9/5/19 close: $10.52

1 Month avg volatility: $0.72. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $6.95 or 33.9% below the close.

Change YTD: -38.47%

Volume: 646,600 shares.
3 month avg: 1,539,280 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.

 

Chart pattern: Flag, high and tight continuation pattern from 08/14/2019 to 09/05/2019

Breakout is upward 100% of the time.

Average rise: 69%.

Throwbacks occur 54% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 90% of the time.

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Infinera Corp. (INFN)

Industry: Telecom. Equipment

Industry RS rank: 6 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 194 out of 583

9/5/19 close: $5.35

1 Month avg volatility: $0.25. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $4.72 or 11.8% below the close.

Change YTD: 34.09%

Volume: 3,230,300 shares.
3 month avg: 1,624,214 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.

 

Chart pattern: Flag, high and tight continuation pattern from 07/09/2019 to 08/30/2019

WARNING: A dead-cat bounce occurred on 05/09/2019. There is a 38% chance that a 15% or higher decline will occur (or has occurred since then) by 11/07/2019.

Breakout is upward 100% of the time.

Average rise: 69%.

Throwbacks occur 54% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 90% of the time.

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Kulicke and Soffa (KLIC)

Industry: Semiconductor Cap Equip.

Industry RS rank: 7 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 391 out of 583

9/5/19 close: $21.55

1 Month avg volatility: $0.61. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $20.00 or 7.2% below the close.

Change YTD: 6.31%

Volume: 443,500 shares.
3 month avg: 518,337 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.

 

Chart pattern: Head-and-shoulders bottom reversal pattern from 08/15/2019 to 09/03/2019

Breakout is upward 100% of the time.

Average rise: 38%.

Break-even failure rate: 3%.

Throwbacks occur 45% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 74% of the time.

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La-Z-Boy Inc (LZB)

Industry: Furn/Home Furnishings

Industry RS rank: 46 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 380 out of 583

9/5/19 close: $31.34

1 Month avg volatility: $1.13. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $28.91 or 7.8% below the close.

Change YTD: 13.10%

Volume: 293,000 shares.
3 month avg: 437,505 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.

 

Chart pattern: Diamond bottom reversal pattern from 08/05/2019 to 09/05/2019

Breakout is upward 69% of the time.

Average rise: 36%.

Break-even failure rate: 4%.

Throwbacks occur 53% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 81% of the time.

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Leggett and Platt (LEG)

Industry: Furn/Home Furnishings

Industry RS rank: 46 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 457 out of 583

9/5/19 close: $38.30

1 Month avg volatility: $0.89. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $35.43 or 7.5% below the close.

Change YTD: 6.86%

Volume: 1,142,300 shares.
3 month avg: 981,391 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.

 

Chart pattern: Double Bottom, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 08/28/2019 to 09/03/2019

Breakout is upward 100% of the time.

Average rise: 35%.

Break-even failure rate: 5%.

Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Mastercard Inc (MA)

Industry: Financial Services

Industry RS rank: 3 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 43 out of 583

9/5/19 close: $292.08

1 Month avg volatility: $5.12. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $279.35 or 4.4% below the close.

Change YTD: 54.83%

Volume: 3,808,300 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.

 

Chart pattern: Triangle, ascending reversal pattern from 07/29/2019 to 08/30/2019

Breakout is upward 70% of the time.

Average rise: 35%.

Break-even failure rate: 13%.

Throwbacks occur 57% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 75% of the time.

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Microsoft Corp (MSFT)

Industry: Computer Software and Svcs

Industry RS rank: 18 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 60 out of 583

9/5/19 close: $140.05

1 Month avg volatility: $2.45. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $133.87 or 4.4% below the close.

Change YTD: 37.89%

Volume: 25,433,500 shares.
3 month avg: 21,460,729 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.

 

Chart pattern: Triangle, ascending reversal pattern from 08/05/2019 to 08/30/2019

Breakout is upward 70% of the time.

Average rise: 35%.

Break-even failure rate: 13%.

Throwbacks occur 57% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 75% of the time.

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Moodys Corp (MCO)

Industry: Information Services

Industry RS rank: 10 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 47 out of 583

9/5/19 close: $219.58

1 Month avg volatility: $4.01. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $207.09 or 5.7% below the close.

Change YTD: 56.80%

Volume: 853,700 shares.
3 month avg: 714,397 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.

 

Chart pattern: Triangle, ascending reversal pattern from 08/01/2019 to 09/05/2019

Breakout is upward 70% of the time.

Average rise: 35%.

Break-even failure rate: 13%.

Throwbacks occur 57% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 75% of the time.

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Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC)

Industry: None

Industry RS rank is unavailable.

9/5/19 close: $8,116.83

1 Month avg volatility: $107.59. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $7,846.12 or 3.3% below the close.

Change YTD: 22.33%

Volume: 0 shares.
Could not calculate the 3 month avg volume.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.

 

Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 08/05/2019 to 08/30/2019

Breakout is upward 54% of the time.

Average rise: 31%.

Break-even failure rate: 9%.

Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Netgear Inc. (NTGR)

Industry: Telecom. Equipment

Industry RS rank: 6 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 327 out of 583

9/5/19 close: $34.57

1 Month avg volatility: $0.94. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $32.15 or 7.0% below the close.

Change YTD: -33.56%

Volume: 201,600 shares.
3 month avg: 452,812 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Monday.

 

Chart pattern: Triangle, ascending reversal pattern from 07/26/2019 to 09/05/2019

Breakout is upward 70% of the time.

Average rise: 35%.

Break-even failure rate: 13%.

Throwbacks occur 57% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 75% of the time.

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Noble Corporation (NE)

Industry: Oilfield Svcs/Equipment

Industry RS rank: 57 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 563 out of 583

9/5/19 close: $1.89

1 Month avg volatility: $0.15. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $1.35 or 28.4% below the close.

Change YTD: -27.86%

Volume: 7,151,000 shares.
3 month avg: 7,535,162 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.

 

Chart pattern: Flag, high and tight continuation pattern from 08/15/2019 to 09/05/2019

Breakout is upward 100% of the time.

Average rise: 69%.

Throwbacks occur 54% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 90% of the time.

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Nu Skin Enterprises, Inc (NUS)

Industry: Toiletries/Cosmetics

Industry RS rank: 12 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 522 out of 583

9/5/19 close: $42.71

1 Month avg volatility: $1.37. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $38.63 or 9.6% below the close.

Change YTD: -30.36%

Volume: 945,400 shares.
3 month avg: 417,486 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Thursday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.

 

Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 08/07/2019 to 09/03/2019

WARNING: A dead-cat bounce occurred on 07/17/2019. There is a 26% chance that a 15% or higher decline will occur (or has occurred since then) by 10/16/2019 and a 38% chance by 01/15/2020.

Breakout is upward 54% of the time.

Average rise: 31%.

Break-even failure rate: 9%.

Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Palto Alto Networks Inc (PANW)

Industry: Computer Software and Svcs

Industry RS rank: 18 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 413 out of 583

9/5/19 close: $212.05

1 Month avg volatility: $6.30. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $192.52 or 9.2% below the close.

Change YTD: 12.58%

Volume: 6,945,500 shares.
3 month avg: 1,496,697 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.

 

Chart pattern: Double Bottom, Eve and Eve reversal pattern from 08/19/2019 to 09/04/2019

Breakout is upward 100% of the time.

Average rise: 40%.

Break-even failure rate: 4%.

Throwbacks occur 55% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 67% of the time.

Top

Raytheon Co. (RTN)

Industry: Aerospace/Defense

Industry RS rank: 19 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 284 out of 583

9/5/19 close: $185.27

1 Month avg volatility: $4.07. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $195.43 or 5.5% above the close.

Change YTD: 20.82%

Volume: 1,203,900 shares.
3 month avg: 1,302,565 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.

 

Chart pattern: Triangle, descending reversal pattern from 08/05/2019 to 09/05/2019

Breakout is downward 64% of the time.

Average decline: 16%.

Break-even failure rate: 16%.

Pullbacks occur 54% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 54% of the time.

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Rockwell Automation Inc (ROK)

Industry: Diversified Co.

Industry RS rank: 35 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 426 out of 583

9/5/19 close: $158.70

1 Month avg volatility: $3.46. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $145.92 or 8.1% below the close.

Change YTD: 5.46%

Volume: 1,086,300 shares.
3 month avg: 805,498 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.

 

Chart pattern: Head-and-shoulders bottom reversal pattern from 08/15/2019 to 09/03/2019

Breakout is upward 100% of the time.

Average rise: 38%.

Break-even failure rate: 3%.

Throwbacks occur 45% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 74% of the time.

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Ross Stores (ROST)

Industry: Retail (Special Lines)

Industry RS rank: 43 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 126 out of 583

9/5/19 close: $109.36

1 Month avg volatility: $2.51. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $101.71 or 7.0% below the close.

Change YTD: 31.44%

Volume: 2,437,500 shares.
3 month avg: 2,750,108 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.

 

Chart pattern: Triangle, ascending reversal pattern from 07/02/2019 to 09/04/2019

Breakout is upward 70% of the time.

Average rise: 35%.

Break-even failure rate: 13%.

Throwbacks occur 57% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 75% of the time.

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Texas Instruments Inc. (TXN)

Industry: Semiconductor

Industry RS rank: 9 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 85 out of 583

9/5/19 close: $126.81

1 Month avg volatility: $2.65. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $120.84 or 4.7% below the close.

Change YTD: 34.19%

Volume: 5,189,400 shares.
3 month avg: 4,332,837 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.

 

Chart pattern: Triple bottom reversal pattern from 08/23/2019 to 09/03/2019

Breakout is upward 100% of the time.

Average rise: 37%.

Break-even failure rate: 4%.

Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 64% of the time.

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Travelers Companies Inc, The (TRV)

Industry: Insurance (Prop/Casualty)

Industry RS rank: 5 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 135 out of 583

9/5/19 close: $151.74

1 Month avg volatility: $2.47. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $146.05 or 3.8% below the close.

Change YTD: 26.71%

Volume: 1,230,100 shares.
3 month avg: 1,525,757 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.

 

Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 08/09/2019 to 09/03/2019

Breakout is upward 54% of the time.

Average rise: 31%.

Break-even failure rate: 9%.

Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Verisign (VRSN)

Industry: Internet

Industry RS rank: 28 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 120 out of 583

9/5/19 close: $206.58

1 Month avg volatility: $3.92. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $196.28 or 5.0% below the close.

Change YTD: 39.31%

Volume: 627,400 shares.
3 month avg: 871,351 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.

 

Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 08/05/2019 to 09/05/2019

Breakout is upward 54% of the time.

Average rise: 31%.

Break-even failure rate: 9%.

Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Visa (V)

Industry: Financial Services

Industry RS rank: 3 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 61 out of 583

9/5/19 close: $184.73

1 Month avg volatility: $2.97. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $177.44 or 4.0% below the close.

Change YTD: 40.01%

Volume: 6,382,200 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.

 

Chart pattern: Triangle, ascending reversal pattern from 08/01/2019 to 08/30/2019

Breakout is upward 70% of the time.

Average rise: 35%.

Break-even failure rate: 13%.

Throwbacks occur 57% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 75% of the time.

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PowerShares QQQ — Nasdaq 100 (QQQ)

Industry: Long ETFs

Industry RS rank: 27 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 190 out of 583

9/5/19 close: $191.78

1 Month avg volatility: $2.78. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $184.78 or 3.7% below the close.

Change YTD: 24.32%

Volume: 33,377,800 shares.
3 month avg: 28,533,265 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.

 

Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 08/05/2019 to 09/03/2019

Breakout is upward 54% of the time.

Average rise: 31%.

Break-even failure rate: 9%.

Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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SPDR S and P Aerospace and Defense (XAR)

Industry: Aerospace/Defense

Industry RS rank: 19 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 114 out of 583

9/5/19 close: $108.67

1 Month avg volatility: $1.51. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $105.50 or 2.9% below the close.

Change YTD: 37.70%

Volume: 71,200 shares.

This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.

 

Chart pattern: Triangle, ascending reversal pattern from 07/31/2019 to 09/04/2019

Breakout is upward 70% of the time.

Average rise: 35%.

Break-even failure rate: 13%.

Throwbacks occur 57% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 75% of the time.

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Thursday 9/5/19. Intraday Market Direction: Nasdaq

The index climbed by 1.3% or 102.72 points. Since 02/05/1971 the index made 149 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day’s…

     Average gain was 0.8% on 92 occasions.

     Average loss was -1.0% on 57 occasions.

Expect the index to close higher 61.7% of the time.

Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:

     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 170/309 or 55.0% of the time.

     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 53/105 or 50.5% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5 minute scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5-minute scale.

Today’s (Wednesday) trend (B) is following a channel, one that slopes upward as the two lines suggest. What does it mean?

Look back at A. It’s another channel, shorter, and happening mid-day. I often look for similar situations to see what has happened in the past and see if that’s helpful predicting the future.
So let’s do that here.

After channel A (price actually broke out of the channel going lower), price gapped higher at the open the following day. Then price dropped like crazy, ending lower for 2 days. So now
we have a roadmap to the end of the week. It’ll be interesting to see if it’ll happen like this or not. That is, price gaps up and then drops for 2 days.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day’s high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences),
the area might act as support or resistance.

— Thomas Bulkowski

Top

© 2019 ThePatternSite.com    Metric   Value   Diff   Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2   7,316.40      
 Monthly S1   7,646.64   330.24   
 Weekly S2   7,669.25   22.61   
 Weekly S1   7,823.06   153.82   
 Daily S2   7,909.94   86.88   
 Weekly Pivot   7,920.49   10.55   
 Low   7,928.94   8.45   
 Daily S1   7,943.41   14.47   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High   7,948.98   5.57   
 Open   7,949.81   0.83   Yes! The Open is close to the 61.8% Down from Intraday High.
 50% Down from Intraday High   7,955.17   5.36   
 38.2% Down from Intraday High   7,961.37   6.19   
 Daily Pivot   7,962.41   1.04   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High.
 Close   7,976.88   14.47   
 High   7,981.41   4.53   Yes! The High is close to the Close.
 Monthly Pivot   7,993.14   11.73   
 Daily R1   7,995.88   2.74   Yes! The Daily R1 is close to the Monthly Pivot.
 Daily R2   8,014.88   19.00   
 Weekly R1   8,074.30   59.42   
 Weekly R2   8,171.73   97.42   
 Monthly R1   8,323.38   151.65   
 Monthly R2   8,669.88   346.50   


Wednesday 9/4/19. A Look At Indicators

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

Much to my surprise, the indicator remains bullish despite Tuesday’s sell-off in the Dow (down almost 300 points).

However, notice the thin blue indicator line at the bottom of the chart. It took a big dip today, which is a warning. What’s the warning? My guess is further indecision
about direction.

Notice that the index has been moving up and down, seeking a direction, for about a month now. And it’s September, the weakest month of the year.
According to the chart at the link, September closed higher just 39.5% of the time.

Picture of the percent down indicators

The red line is the percentage of stocks at least 20% below their 1-year high (plotted upside down). The blue line is the average percentage drop of stocks below their 1-year high (plotted upside down).

Shown as a red line on the above chart…

On Tuesday, 45% of stocks in my database are in bear market territory (down at least 20% from their 1-year high).

A week ago, it was 47%.

The fewest was 23% on 09/20/2018.

And the most was 81% on 12/24/2018.

Shown as a blue line on the above chart…

The 486 stocks in my database are down an average of 22% from their yearly high.

A week ago, the average was 23%.

The peak was 13% on 09/04/2018.

And the bottom was 33% on 12/24/2018.

The two lines show modest improvement. The improvement would have been stronger except for today’s drop.

I think what this chart says is that there’s underlying strength in the market. It wants to zip higher and as soon as the China trade war ends, if it ever does, you’ll see a big spike.

My guess is over 1,000 points in one session. But analysts say that’s a long way off unless people start complaining to Trump about how we’re really paying for the tariffs and they’re hurting.

Whisper into his ear that his re-election chances are going south quickly, and he’ll drop the tariffs quickly, too. Unless he changes his mind, of course.

— Thomas Bulkowski

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Tuesday 9/3/19. Slider Quiz! Pennants

The index climbed by 0.2% or 41.03 points. Since 10/01/1928 the index made 1317 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day’s…

     Average gain was 0.6% on 716 occasions.

     Average loss was -0.5% on 601 occasions.

Expect the index to close higher 54.4% of the time.

Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:

     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 191/320 or 59.7% of the time.

     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 38/76 or 50.0% of the time.

$ $ $

I show a another slider quiz featuring the pennant chart pattern.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day’s high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences),
the area might act as support or resistance.

— Thomas Bulkowski

Top

© 2019 ThePatternSite.com    Metric   Value   Diff   Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2   24,399.46      
 Weekly S2   25,307.92   908.46   
 Monthly S1   25,401.37   93.45   
 Weekly S1   25,855.60   454.23   
 Weekly Pivot   26,185.11   329.51   
 Daily S2   26,185.47   0.36   Yes! The Daily S2 is close to the Weekly Pivot.
 Daily S1   26,294.37   108.91   
 Low   26,295.59   1.22   Yes! The Low is close to the Daily S1.
 Monthly Pivot   26,341.51   45.92   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High   26,379.26   37.75   
 Close   26,403.28   24.02   
 Daily Pivot   26,404.50   1.22   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the Close.
 50% Down from Intraday High   26,405.11   0.61   Yes! The 50% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High   26,430.95   25.85   
 Open   26,476.39   45.44   
 Daily R1   26,513.40   37.01   
 High   26,514.62   1.21   Yes! The High is close to the Daily R1.
 Daily R2   26,623.53   108.91   
 Weekly R1   26,732.79   109.26   
 Weekly R2   27,062.30   329.51   
 Monthly R1   27,343.42   281.12   
 Monthly R2   28,283.56   940.14   


Monday 9/2/19. Keep ThePatternSite Alive!

Picture of my dog.

Monday is labor day, a national holiday in the US. Trump says it has something to do with pregnant women and hurricanes. Smiley

If you wish to support the website, then try one of these options.

  1. Perhaps the best way is come to this site and click on an image of one of my books. You’ll find the images either along the left side or at the bottom of the page. The click will take
    you to
    Amazon.com.
    The link passes a code to them and I receive a small referral fee but only if you buy something while there. You do NOT need to buy the book. It’s just a vehicle to get you to Amazon with the referral
    code. So each time you want to use Amazon.com to buy something, come to this site first, click on a book image, and spend like crazy! The referral doesn’t cost you any money and it supports this site.
  2. You can click on an ad. Please don’t click on them just to run up the score. Google frowns on that. If you see something of interest, then click the ad and visit their site.
    Ad sales are where most of the financial support for the site comes from. Some of you may have to turn off your ad blocker to see the ads.
  3. Finally, you can donate to the site directly. The home page (and some other pages as well) has a Donate link at the bottom of it.

— Thomas Bulkowski

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