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High and Tight Flags Updated…


Market

Industrials (^DJI):

Transports (^DJT):

Utilities (^DJU):

Nasdaq (^IXIC):

S&P500 (^GSPC):

As of 10/30/2018

24,875 431.72 1.8%

10,176 279.46 2.8%

743 2.34 0.3%

7,162 81.36 1.1%

2,683 41.38 1.6%

YTD

0.6%

-4.1%

2.7%

3.7%

0.3%

24,000 or 26,100 by 11/15/2018
9,800 or 11,000 by 11/15/2018
775 or 700 by 11/15/2018
6,900 or 7,700 by 11/15/2018
2,575 or 2,825 by 11/15/2018

Written by and copyright © 2005-2018 by Thomas N. Bulkowski. All rights reserved. Disclaimer: You alone are responsible for your investment decisions.
See Privacy/Disclaimer for more information. Some pattern names are the registered trademarks of their respective owners.

Statistics updated 10/30/2018.

For more information on this pattern, read
Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns Second EditionEncyclopedia of Chart Patterns 2nd Edition book.,
pictured on the right, pages 350 to 361.

If you click on this link and then buy the book (or anything) at Amazon.com, the referral will help support this site. Thanks. — Tom Bulkowski

$ $ $

 

Important Bull Market Results for High and Tight Flags

Overall performance rank (1 is best): Not available

Break even failure rate: 15%

Average rise: 39%

Throwback rate: 68%

Percentage meeting price target: *53%

* Uses a half-height target.

The above numbers are based on 1,009 of perfect trades. See the glossary for definitions.

High and Tight Flag Identification Guidelines

Characteristic Discussion
Price trend Upward leading to the flag. Price must rise at least 90% (shoot for a double) in 2 months or less.
Shape A consolidation pattern forms after price doubles. It usually doesn’t look like a flag or pennant, just a pause in the price rise.
Volume Recedes for best performance
Confirmation The pattern confirms as valid when price closes above the highest peak in the pattern, which is usually the flagpole top.

High and Tight Flag Trading Tips

Trading Tactic Explanation
Measure rule Compute the height from the start of the price swing
(point A in the measure rule figure to the right) to
the end of the price swing (B) and then take half of
it. Add it to the bottom of the flag (C) to get the
target (D).
Breakout Only buy when price closes above the highest peak in the chart pattern (including the flagpole). That is point
B in the Measure Rule figure to the right. Buying
sooner risks price never confirming the pattern (in other words, price drops or
moves horizontally for months). And yes, I know this is different than what I wrote in my book. HTFs fail too often
when using a flag trendline break. Instead, place a buy stop above the highest high in the chart pattern.
Tight patterns Trade tight flags, not loose
ones. Tight flags perform better than loose ones. A loose flag is one in which
price meanders, pokes outside the trendline boundary, contains white space, or
looks jagged. See the figure to the right.
Slope Price trends of 45 degrees or so in the flagpole mean a better post breakout rise than ones that go nearly vertical leading to the flag.
Trendline Flags with a down-sloping top trendline tend to outperform.
Trendline Trade For steep price trends, use a volatility stop and draw a trendline
beneath price. If price closes below the trendline, then consider selling. For an
example, look at IIIN from January to April 2006. The HTF starts in January and
price more than doubles in less than 2 months, eventually rounding over at the top.
High and tight flag chart pattern measure rule

The Measure Rule

Tight versus loose flag

Tight v. Loose

High and Tight Flag Example

High and tight flag chart pattern example

The above figure shows an example of a high and tight flag chart pattern. Price begins the rise in October at 9.36
and rises to 17.80, a climb of 90% in less than 2 months. Then price moves sideways, forming an ascending triangle.
When the breakout occurs, it confirms the high and tight flag chart pattern as a valid one and price resumes the up
trend. Price tops out at 23.72 less than 2 months later, a rise of 33%.

— Thomas Bulkowski

Other High and Tight Flag Examples

Written by and copyright © 2005-2018 by Thomas N. Bulkowski. All rights reserved. Disclaimer: You alone are responsible for your investment decisions.
See Privacy/Disclaimer for more information. Some pattern names are the registered trademarks of their respective owners.
24 hours in a day; 24 beers in a case. Coincidence?


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