Intraday Market Direction Thursday: Nasdaq Higher…

Tuesday 5/10/22. Slider Trading Quiz! Polo Ralph Lauren (RL)

Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:

     The prediction of the Dow closing higher has been right 246/437 or 56.3% of the time.

     The prediction of the Dow closing lower has been right 46/95 or 48.4% of the time.

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I show another slider trading quiz featuring Polo Ralph Lauren: RL stock.

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Here’s a symbol list of 158 chart and candlestick patterns (13 “investment grade” candle patterns) found in today’s securities using my version of Patternz:
ABT, ACN, AYI, AJRD, AA, ALKS, AYX, AEL, AMAT, ATR, AVA, AZTA, BCPC, BSET, BIG, BIIB, BMRN, EPAY, CALM, CENX, CVX, CIEN, CLNE, CLF, CNA, CGNX, CL, CMTL, ED, COTY, DSGR, EVH, EXC, EXPD, FICO, FE, FISV, FTNT, FCX, GPRO, GES, HL, HNI, HUBG, HURC, ILMN, INCY, INFN, IBKR, IVC, JAZZ, JBLU, KMT, KSS, LRCX, LXU, MAN, MRTN, MTRX, MDT, FB, MCO, MUR, NBR, CNR, JWN, OXM, PANW, PATK, PTEN, RJF, RGS, RNG, SCHW, SMTC, SKX, SWN, SXI, SCS, SUM, SRDX, TFX, TDC, TXT, RIG, TG, VRSN, VRTX, WSO, WERN, WOLF, WDAY, XEL, IAI, IYC, IYE, QTEC, FXI, BOTZ, IYH, IHF, SLV, IEO, IHI, EWA, EWO, EWK, EWC, ECH, EEM, EWQ, EWG, EWH, EIS, EWI, EWJ, EWM, EWW, EPP, EWS, EZA, EWY, EWP, EWD, EWL, EWT, THD, EWU, IBB, PPA, DBA, PBE, PJP, ROBO, IEV, IXC, ILF, MXI, GLD, XAR, MGK. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

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The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day’s high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences),
the area might act as support or resistance.

— Thomas Bulkowski

Monday 5/9/22. Market Monday: The Week Ahead

My Prediction

This is a picture of the Dow utilities on the daily scale.

I drew a few lines, so let’s start with the red one. This trendline starts from the left of the chart, connecting a few peaks at the start. I extended it to the right and
adjusted it so that it lined up with price on the far right.

The line is an approximation, in that the line comes close to peaks or valleys where you’d expect to see support or resistance, which happens.

The green circle is what’s called the corrective phase of a measured move up chart pattern. The corrective phase is a known support area and we see that here, too.

I say that because of the green horizontal line shows support (the area around the line).

What does this mean? It suggests but does not guarantee that the index will continue to find support here and rise.

A Brief Look Back

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

Monday: Up 84.29 points.

Tuesday: Up 67.29 points.

Wednesday: Up 932.27 points.

Thursday: Down 1063.09 points.

Friday: Down 98.6 points.

For the Week…

The Dow industrials were down 77.84 points or 0.2%.

The Nasdaq composite was down 189.98 points or 1.5%.

The S&P 500 index was down 8.59 points or 0.2%.

Year to Date…

Dow Industrials

     11.0% down from the high of 36,952.65 on 01/05/2022.

     1.9% up from the low of 32,272.64 on 02/24/2022.

Nasdaq

     23.4% down from the high of 15,852.14 on 01/04/2022.

     1.3% up from the low of 11,990.15 on 05/06/2022.

S&P 500

     14.4% down from the high of 4,818.62 on 01/04/2022.

     1.5% up from the low of 4,062.51 on 05/02/2022.

Options Expiration

No options expire this week.

Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, “Take a
two-dimensional approach.” He offers these tips.

• Seekinger doesn’t look at the range of S2 to R2 as support and resistance levels. Rather, he considers them oversold (S) and overbought (R) areas.
• S2 to R2 range of values across daily, weekly, and monthly periods: If two values are close together then they lend more significance to the area.
• If the market trends on day 1, the odds rise tremendously that the market will be range bound between daily S1 and daily R1 the next day.
• In a quiet market when traders are waiting for an important earnings announcement or economic report, look for daily R1 and S1 levels to hold and for the market to return to the daily pivot.
• A move outside of daily R1 or S1 usually does not mean a breakout.
• The odds suggest that the entire week’s price action will remain between weekly R2 and S2.
• Avoid going long when the market moves above weekly R2 (it’s overbought) and avoid going short when price moves below weekly S2 (oversold).
• Consider going short at weekly R1 or long at weekly S1 with a profit objective of the weekly pivot.
• Consider going long at weekly S2 or short at weekly R2 with a profit objective of weekly S1 or R1, respectively.

Here are the formulas:

Pivot point: P = (H + L + C)/3

First resistance level: R1 = (2 * P) – L

First support level: S1 = (2 * P) – H)

Second resistance level: R2 = P + (R1 – S1)

Second support level: S2 = P – (R1 – S1)

H = high price , L=low price, C=closing price

Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season is either underway or should be starting soon. The sessions could be more volatile.

Here’s a symbol list of 86 chart and candlestick patterns (13 “investment grade” candle patterns) found in today’s securities using my version of Patternz:
ACN, AYI, APD, ALB, AA, AEL, AFG, AMGN, ANIK, AVA, AZTA, BCPC, BSET, BIIB, EPAY, BMY, CALM, CF, CIEN, CLNE, CLF, CGNX, COP, GLW, COTY, CROX, BOOM, EIX, FICO, FAST, FE, FCX, GIS, GNW, GPRO, HSY, IDXX, ILMN, INFN, IIIN, TILE, IVC, JBLU, KMT, KLIC, LLY, LMT, L, LXU, MTRX, FB, MGEE, NTAP, NKE, JWN, NWPX, OMCL, PATK, PPL, PEG, ROG, SRE, SKX, SO, SCCO, SUM, SRDX, TDC, TG, UNM, VFC, WRB, WEX, IYC, EWO, EWH, EWM, EZA, EWD, EWL, IXC, USO, MGK. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

The below industries were the best (rank 1) or worst performing of those I follow.

— Thomas Bulkowski

Friday 5/6/22. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

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Here’s a symbol list of 79 chart and candlestick patterns (13 “investment grade” candle patterns) found in today’s securities using my version of Patternz:
ACN, ADTN, APD, ALB, AEL, AFG, ANIK, APOG, ADM, ADP, BBBY, BBY, EPAY, CALM, CENX, CF, CTSH, COTY, CROX, CCRN, D, EPAM, EZPW, FAST, FE, FIVN, FCX, FRD, GNW, HL, IDXX, INFN, IIIN, NVTA, LAMR, LNC, LXU, MNDT, FB, MUR, ^IXIC, NOV, CNR, NTGR, NJR, NWPX, OTEX, PATK, RGS, REV, ^GSPC, SIGI, SCCO, SXI, SRDX, SLCA, WMB, IYC, IEZ, FXL, FXI, BOTZ, EWO, EWZ, EWC, EWI, EWT, TUR, PXJ, IEV, IXN, UNG, USO, MGK. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

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You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

The following patterns were found manually, not using Patternz. Mr. Bulkowski has excluded any securities he owns from appearing in the list. However, he may add any of the securities listed to his portfolio at any time, just as you can.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

For details about the chart patterns, click here.

— Thomas Bulkowski

Thursday 5/5/22. Intraday Market Direction: Nasdaq

Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:

     The prediction of the Nasdaq closing higher has been right 237/418 or 56.7% of the time.

     The prediction of the Nasdaq closing lower has been right 63/132 or 47.7% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

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I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5-minute scale.

Peaks A and B mark the tops of a double top chart pattern. It confirms as a valid chart pattern when the index closed below the valley between A and B.
However, the drop didn’t amount to much (about a third of what it should have to meet the measure rule target. The target is the height of the pattern subtracted from the low in the valley
between the two peaks).

I also show a head-and-shoulders bottom with RS being the right shoulder. The left shoulder is farther away from the head than RS, but it’s close enough.
The pattern predicts a rise when it closed above C. It suggests an additional rise of about 200 points.

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Here’s a symbol list of 81 chart and candlestick patterns (13 “investment grade” candle patterns) found in today’s securities using my version of Patternz:
AYI, ADTN, AJRD, APD, AKAM, ALB, DOX, AEO, AEL, APOG, AVNT, AVA, BOOT, CDNS, CLNE, CLX, CNA, CGNX, COTY, CCK, BOOM, WIRE, EOG, FIVN, GNW, HQY, HTLD, HSY, HNI, IDXX, INFN, IIIN, IPAR, TILE, NVTA, KBAL, LXU, FB, CNR, NTGR, OMCL, PTEN, PINC, RGS, SAIA, SMG, SLGN, SR, SXI, RIG, VLO, VMC, WERN, WLK, IYM, IYE, IHE, FXI, EWI, EWP, TUR, EWU, DBA, IXC, XLE, UNG, USO, VAW. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

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The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day’s high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences),
the area might act as support or resistance.

— Thomas Bulkowski

Wednesday 5/4/22. A Look At Indicators: More Bullish

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

The CPI has climbed to the neutral territory for the last 2 sessions (Monday and Tuesday). You can’t see it on the chart because I don’t highlight the neutral zone.

Look at the thin blue CPI line at the bottom of the chart. It’s made a nice climb off a failure swing, which is bullish.

Even though the most recent vertical bar is bearish, the chart is looking good to me. I expect a positive move after the FED announces their rate hike tomorrow.

The red line is the percentage of stocks at least 20% below their 1-year high (plotted upside down). The blue line is the average percentage drop of stocks below their 1-year high (plotted upside down).

The two lines, the blue and red ones, have climbed off their recent lows. That’s also a bullish turn. I still don’t like the very-long downtrend (from left of chart to right).

I still have a hunch that the next move will be upward. Another guess and I’ve been wrong often enough recently. Indeed, this downturn took me by surprise and I don’t really believe
that the drop should have been as steep as it has been.

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For those Patternz users, I’m still working on fixing the problems introduced by yahoo. I’ve an experimental version you can try. I’ll release a new version
as soon as it settles down into a stable state.

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Here’s a symbol list of 70 chart and candlestick patterns (13 “investment grade” candle patterns) found in today’s securities using my version of Patternz:
DDD, AMED, AEL, AMGN, BCPC, BIIB, CACI, CNO, COP, COTY, CCRN, CSGS, DHR, DVN, DDS, DFS, EL, EZPW, FICO, FIVN, FTNT, FRD, GNW, HLIT, HSC, HQY, HNI, IEX, IBKR, KALU, KSS, KLIC, RAMP, M, MRO, MRTN, MRK, FB, NTGR, PKE, PINC, RGS, ROK, SUM, TKR, VC, WAT, WSO, WLK, WEX, WSM, XEL, IEZ, FXI, IEO, EWW, DBA, PEJ, PXJ, UNG. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

— Thomas Bulkowski

Tuesday 5/3/22. Slider Trading Quiz!

Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:

     The prediction of the Dow closing higher has been right 245/436 or 56.2% of the time.

     The prediction of the Dow closing lower has been right 46/95 or 48.4% of the time.

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I show another slider trading quiz featuring Oxford Industries: OXM stock.

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Patternz broke again, with the same hang error found this time by Naresh Kumar, but using a different path. You can find the latest release to fix the problem here.
Thanks Naresh for reporting this.

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Here’s a symbol list of 107 chart and candlestick patterns (13 “investment grade” candle patterns) found in today’s securities using my version of Patternz:
ABT, ANF, ACN, AYI, AEIS, AJRD, ALRM, DOX, AEO, ARW, AGO, AVY, AVA, BCPC, BSET, BMRN, BKH, CNP, CRL, CNA, CGNX, CL, CLR, COTY, CSGS, DECK, EXC, FAST, FIVN, FLS, FMC, FORM, FCX, FDP, GFF, HLIT, HIG, HAYN, HNI, INCY, INFN, TILE, IVC, JBLU, KMT, KFRC, LXU, MTSI, MRK, MU, MCO, MS, NBR, NJR, NEU, NVDA, OXY, OGE, ORI, PYPL, PETS, PFE, PNW, PLXS, PPG, RJF, RGS, ROG, SAIC, SEE, SCCO, TDOC, TEVA, VFC, VEEV, VRSN, WRB, IYC, SLV, EWA, EWZ, EIS, EPP, EWD, THD, TUR, PPA, DBA, PBE, PEJ, IEV, ILF, MXI, XLP, GLD, XLI, XLB, XLU. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

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The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day’s high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences),
the area might act as support or resistance.

— Thomas Bulkowski

Monday 5/2/22. 2022 Forecast Update

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Here’s the updated 2022 forecast, presented in slider format.

Here’s a symbol list of 124 chart and candlestick patterns (13 “investment grade” candle patterns) found in today’s securities using my version of Patternz:
MMM, ABT, ALB, AA, AMZN, DOX, AEO, ANIK, AGO, AVY, AVA, BCPC, BLL, BERY, BIIB, BKH, BMY, CALM, CLS, CNP, CF, CHD, CGNX, CL, CLR, CSGS, DVN, EQT, XOM, FLEX, FMC, FRD, GILD, HLIT, HIG, HE, HL, IEX, ILMN, INTC, IVC, NVTA, KMT, LEG, LXU, MRTN, MGEE, MS, MOS, MUR, NBR, NFG, NOV, NJR, OXY, ORI, OLN, OMC, PKG, PETS, PCG, PNW, PHM, RJF, RGS, SAIC, SUM, TPR, TFX, TKR, RIG, TZOO, VRSN, WU, WLK, ITA, IYM, IYC, IYE, IEZ, FXI, ICF, SLV, IGE, EWA, EWO, EWK, EWZ, EWC, EEM, EWQ, EWG, EWI, EWJ, EWW, EPP, EWD, EWL, PPA, DBA, PEJ, PJP, PHO, IEV, ILF, MXI, XLE, XHB, XLB, XRT, VAW. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

The below industries were the best (rank 1) or worst performing of those I follow.

Based on sector performance from Fidelity, the best performing sectors for year-to-date performance as of 29 March 2022 were…
(The numbering is how they ranked a month ago.)

1. Energy (+39%)

8. Consumer staples (3%)

5. Utilities (3%)

9. Materials (-4%)

4. Health care (-5%)

2. Real estate (-6%)

10. Industrials (-8%)

6. Financials (-9%)

3. Information technology (-15%)

7. Consumer discretionary (-16%)

11. Communication services (-23%)

The folks at two firms polled by Fidelity weigh the sectors in this order, as of 4/22/22.

1. Information technology (IT)

2. Health care

3. Consumer discretionary

4. Financials

5. Communication services

6. Industrials

7. Consumer staples

8. Energy

10. Real estate

9. Utilities

11. Materials

Here’s how they rank the industries, but only the top 10 appear. One-year change, as of 4/29. The numbering is how they ranked a month ago.

2. Energy equipment and services (+62%)

4. Oil, gas and consumable fuels (+60%)

5. Metals and mining (27%)

10. Food and staples retailing (26%)

9. Health care providers and services (+25%)

4. Health care technology (24%)

New. Pharmaceuticals (+22%)

7. Diversified financial services (+21%)

3. Construction and engineering (+21%)

6. Technology hardware, storage, and peripherals (20%)

— Thomas Bulkowski