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Market Holiday: New Book and Website Support…

Blog: April 2021

Bulkowski's Blog: ThePatternSite.com

As of 04/07/2021

  Indus: 33,446 +16.02 +0.0%  

  Trans: 14,797 -46.30 -0.3%  

  Utils: 892 -1.24 -0.1%  

  Nasdaq: 13,689 -9.54 -0.1%  

  S&P 500: 4,080 +6.01 +0.1%  

YTD

 +9.3%  

 +18.3%  

 +3.2%  

 +6.2%  

 +8.6%  

  Up arrow34,800 or 32,000 by 04/15/2021
  Up arrow15,200 or 13,600 by 04/15/2021
  Up arrow925 or 850 by 04/15/2021
  Up arrow13,900 or 12,700 by 04/15/2021
  Up arrow4,100 or 3,800 by 04/15/2021

As of 04/07/2021

  Indus: 33,446 +16.02 +0.0%  

  Trans: 14,797 -46.30 -0.3%  

  Utils: 892 -1.24 -0.1%  

  Nasdaq: 13,689 -9.54 -0.1%  

  S&P 500: 4,080 +6.01 +0.1%  

YTD

 +9.3%  

 +18.3%  

 +3.2%  

 +6.2%  

 +8.6%  

  Up arrow34,800 or 32,000 by 04/15/2021
  Up arrow15,200 or 13,600 by 04/15/2021
  Up arrow925 or 850 by 04/15/2021
  Up arrow13,900 or 12,700 by 04/15/2021
  Up arrow4,100 or 3,800 by 04/15/2021

 


Wednesday 4/7/21. Indicators Still Bullish But

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

The green bar on the far right of the chart means the indicator is still bullish. It’s been bullish for about two weeks now.

What hints can we see about a trend change?

Price is rising fast, probably too fast to be sustainable. So look for a retrace. You can see the inverted and ascending scallop pattern from
the March green bar to the recent green bar (between those two locations, in price, not the CPI). Price rises and then retraces.

So that’s what I see coming. The CPI line at the bottom of the chart doesn’t show weakness, but therein lies the weakness. The indicator is at 98 now, so there’s more downside
than upside. To put it another way, the indicator is going to drop soon, taking the index along with it.

Picture of the percent down indicators

The red line is the percentage of stocks at least 20% below their 1-year high (plotted upside down). The blue line is the average percentage drop of stocks below their 1-year high (plotted upside down).

Shown as a red line on the above chart…

On Tuesday, 10% of stocks in my database are in bear market territory (down at least 20% from their 1-year high).

A week ago, it was 16%.

The fewest was 8% on 03/15/2021.

And the most was 83% on 04/07/2020.

Shown as a blue line on the above chart…

The 469 stocks in my database are down an average of 9% from their yearly high.

A week ago, the average was 11%.

The peak was 8% on 03/15/2021.

And the bottom was 38% on 04/07/2020.

Both the red and blue lines show improvement this week compared to a week ago. There’s still divergence between the red/blue lines and price. By that, I mean the last two peaks are
flat to down in the colored lines, but the index shows a higher peak.

Both charts this week show strength but the subtext says the index is going to retrace, probably for a week. And I think it’s going to start soon.

$ $ $

Here’s a symbol list of 145 chart and candlestick patterns (13 “investment grade” candle patterns) found in today’s securities using my version of Patternz:
DDD, ANF, ACIW, ADTN, AMD, AES, ALK, ALB, AA, ALL, AYX, AEO, AMWD, ANTM, APOG, ATR, ARCB, ADP, BMI, BSET, BECN, BZH, BMRN, BRC, BMY, BRKS, CHD, CLNE, CNO, CONN, CSOD, COTY, CREE, CTS, CMI, CW, DVN, WIRE, EVH, FDS, FIVN, FLS, FMC, FDP, GPRO, GGG, GFF, GES, HLIT, HSC, HE, HAYN, HL, HSII, HNI, HUBG, INFN, TILE, IPI, IVC, NVTA, JCOM, JAZZ, JBLU, KALU, KMT, KFRC, KBAL, KLIC, RAMP, MTSI, MTRN, MTRX, MDCA, MDT, MGEE, MLI, NCR, NFLX, NTGR, NXGN, NVDA, OMC, ASGN, PANW, PKE, PAYX, PRFT, PLXS, PFG, PGR, PHM, KWR, RMBS, REV, RNG, RHI, ROG, RES, SMTC, SCS, SSYS, SRDX, TECH, TDOC, TPX, TOL, RIG, TZOO, TREX, VC, WSO, WEX, WSM, ZBRA, IYK, SLV, EIS, EWW, TUR, IBB, PBE, PXJ, ILF, GLD, XLV, XLI, XRT, UNG, MGK. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

— Thomas Bulkowski

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Tuesday 4/6/21. Slider Trading Quiz!

The index climbed by 1.1% or 373.98 points. Since 10/01/1928 the index made 372 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day’s…

     Average gain was 0.7% on 215 occasions.

     Average loss was -0.8% on 157 occasions.

Expect the index to close higher 57.8% of the time.

Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:

     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 223/389 or 57.3% of the time.

     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 42/87 or 48.3% of the time.

$ $ $

I show another slider trading quiz featuring WPS Resources: WPS (actual trade)

$ $ $

Here’s a symbol list of 187 chart and candlestick patterns (13 “investment grade” candle patterns) found in today’s securities using my version of Patternz:
AEIS, APD, AA, AMGN, APH, APOG, AWI, ARW, ATO, AXS, BLL, BZH, BRKS, BG, COG, CALM, CNP, CENX, CF, CHD, CIEN, CLNE, CNO, CONN, CLR, GLW, CR, CRH, XRAY, DFS, ^DJU, ^DJT, ^DJI, EOG, EFX, EVH, EXPD, EZPW, FAST, FMC, FORM, FTNT, FCX, FDP, GE, GNW, GS, GOOGL, GPRO, GGG, HE, HTLD, HSII, HD, HOV, JBHT, IEX, INOV, JCOM, JBLU, KALU, KLAC, KLIC, LZB, LAWS, LDOS, MCHX, MAS, MGEE, MLHR, ^IXIC, NCR, NWL, NEE, NVDA, OXY, OTEX, PKG, PCG, PLXS, KWR, RJF, RNG, RLI, RES, ^GSPC, SCHW, SAIC, SIGI, SCCO, TGT, TPX, TXN, TXT, TZOO, VFC, V, WRB, WAT, WSO, WLK, WMB, ITA, IYM, IAI, IYK, IYC, IYE, IEO, IEZ, IDU, DDM, FTEC, QTEC, FXL, BOTZ, ICF, IYH, IYZ, SOXX, IYF, EWA, EWO, EWK, EWC, ECH, EWQ, EWG, EIS, EWI, EWW, EPP, EWY, EWP, EWD, TUR, EWU, QLD, PPA, PXJ, PJP, PHO, ROBO, IEV, IXC, IXN, SSO, MXI, XLY, XLF, XHB, XLI, SPY, XAR, XLK, XLU, UNG, SMH, MGK. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day’s high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences),
the area might act as support or resistance.

— Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2021 ThePatternSite.com    Metric   Value   Diff   Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2   29,733.10      
 Monthly S1   31,630.15   1,897.04   
 Monthly Pivot   32,444.57   814.43   
 Weekly S2   32,876.57   432.00   
 Daily S2   33,060.27   183.70   
 Weekly S1   33,201.88   141.61   
 Low   33,222.38   20.50   Yes! The Low is close to the Weekly S1.
 Open   33,222.38   0.00   Yes! The Open is close to the Low.
 Weekly Pivot   33,230.44   8.06   Yes! The Weekly Pivot is close to the Open.
 Daily S1   33,293.73   63.29   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High   33,373.49   79.76   
 50% Down from Intraday High   33,420.16   46.68   
 Daily Pivot   33,455.84   35.68   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 50% Down from Intraday High.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High   33,466.84   11.00   Yes! The 38.2% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 Close   33,527.19   60.35   
 Weekly R1   33,555.75   28.56   Yes! The Weekly R1 is close to the Close.
 Weekly R2   33,584.31   28.56   Yes! The Weekly R2 is close to the Weekly R1.
 High   33,617.95   33.64   Yes! The High is close to the Weekly R2.
 Daily R1   33,689.30   71.35   
 Daily R2   33,851.41   162.11   
 Monthly R1   34,341.62   490.21   
 Monthly R2   35,156.04   814.43   


Monday 4/5/21. Market Monday: The Week Ahead

My Prediction

Picture of the Dow utilities on the daily scale.

This is a chart of the Dow utilities on the daily scale.

Two chart patterns come to mind. The red one is a descending scallop (A).

The second one is a V-bottom with an extension, also called an extended V-bottom. I show that at B.

The V-turn is obvious but the extension, which is a slight retrace of the upward move, isn’t that pronounced in this example. The utilities continue higher, regardless.

The extended V-bottom is a mid-list performer, ranking 24 out of 39 patterns with upward breakouts in bull markets. It fails about 10% of the time but has an average rise of 40%. That means if you trade it perfectly
and often enough, you’ll have your clock cleaned 10% of the time but you can make 40%.

Again, that’s if you trade it perfectly (in stocks). However, it does highlight that price often continues to rise after an upward breakout. We see a part of that rise already, when
price climbed away from the extension.

I expect the utilities to return to the extension before moving too much higher. In technical terms, the move from the bottom of the V looks like a measured move up
pattern. After that pattern completes, price often retraces to the corrective phase (which is the extension in this figure).

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A Brief Look Back

Picture of a thermometer.

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

Monday: Up 98.49 points.

Tuesday: Down 104.41 points.

Wednesday: Down 85.41 points.

Thursday: Up 171.66 points.

Friday: Holiday or other weird event!

For the Week…

The Dow industrials were up 80.33 points or 0.2%.

The Nasdaq composite was up 341.38 points or 2.6%.

The S&P 500 index was up 45.33 points or 1.1%.

Year to Date…

Dow Industrials

     0.3% down from the high of 33,259.00 on 03/29/2021.

     11.0% up from the low of 29,856.30 on 01/29/2021.

Nasdaq

     4.9% down from the high of 14,175.12 on 02/16/2021.

     8.7% up from the low of 12,397.05 on 03/05/2021.

S&P 500

     0.0% down from the high of 4,020.63 on 04/01/2021.

     9.8% up from the low of 3,662.71 on 01/04/2021.

Options Expiration

No options expire this week.

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Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, “Take a
two-dimensional approach.” He offers these tips.

Index S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2
Dow Industrials (^DJI): Daily   32,920   33,037   33,102   33,218   33,284 
Weekly   32,752   32,953   33,106   33,306   33,460 
Monthly   29,608   31,381   32,320   34,092   35,031 
S&P500 (^GSPC): Daily   3,983   4,002   4,011   4,029   4,039 
Weekly   3,917   3,969   3,995   4,046   4,072 
Monthly   3,624   3,822   3,921   4,119   4,219 
Nasdaq (^IXIC): Daily   13,374   13,427   13,457   13,510   13,540 
Weekly   12,732   13,106   13,297   13,671   13,861 
Monthly   11,942   12,711   13,166   13,935   14,390 
  • Seekinger doesn’t look at the range of S2 to R2 as support and resistance levels. Rather, he considers them oversold (S) and overbought (R) areas.
  • S2 to R2 range of values across daily, weekly, and monthly periods: If two values are close together then they lend more significance to the area.
  • If the market trends on day 1, the odds rise tremendously that the market will be range bound between daily S1 and daily R1 the next day.
  • In a quiet market when traders are waiting for an important earnings announcement or economic report, look for daily R1 and S1 levels to hold and for the market to return to the daily pivot.
  • A move outside of daily R1 or S1 usually does not mean a breakout.
  • The odds suggest that the entire week’s price action will remain between weekly R2 and S2.
  • Avoid going long when the market moves above weekly R2 (it’s overbought) and avoid going short when price moves below weekly S2 (oversold).
  • Consider going short at weekly R1 or long at weekly S1 with a profit objective of the weekly pivot.
  • Consider going long at weekly S2 or short at weekly R2 with a profit objective of weekly S1 or R1, respectively.

Here are the formulas:

Pivot point: P = (H + L + C)/3

First resistance level: R1 = (2 * P) – L

First support level: S1 = (2 * P) – H)

Second resistance level: R2 = P + (R1 – S1)

Second support level: S2 = P – (R1 – S1)

H = high price , L=low price, C=closing price

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Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season will be starting in about 11 days.

Here’s a symbol list of 11 chart and candlestick patterns (13 “investment grade” candle patterns) found in today’s securities using my version of Patternz:
COG, CENX, EMR, EOG, GE, GPRO, MCHX, SMTC, TPX, VFC, WMB. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

The below industries were the best (rank 1) or worst performing of those I follow.

This Week Last Week
1. Oilfield Svcs/Equipment 1. Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
2. Petroleum (Producing) 2. Retail (Special Lines)
3. Retail (Special Lines) 3. Petroleum (Producing)
4. Semiconductor Cap Equip. 4. Apparel
5. Petroleum (Integrated) 5. Semiconductor Cap Equip.
6. Apparel 6. Securities Brokerage
7. Securities Brokerage 7. Petroleum (Integrated)
8. Computers and Peripherals 8. Computers and Peripherals
9. Trucking/Transp. Leasing 9. Electronics
10. Electronics 10. Advertising
Best Performing Above Worst Performing Below
50. Computer Software and Svcs 50. Computer Software and Svcs
51. Biotechnology 51. Medical Supplies
52. Medical Supplies 52. Natural Gas (Diversified)
53. Food Processing 53. Food Processing
54. Electric Utility (Central) 54. Electric Utility (Central)
55. Healthcare Information 55. Healthcare Information
56. Electric Utility (East) 56. Electric Utility (East)
57. Household Products 57. E-Commerce
58. E-Commerce 58. Household Products
59. Short ETFs 59. Short ETFs

— Thomas Bulkowski

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Thursday 9/28/19. New Book, Feeding ThePatternSite.

The above book, Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns 3rd edition
is due to arrive on Amazon’s shelves later this month.

I negotiated with the publisher to keep the list price the same as the old book, but I don’t know how long that will last. When the second edition came out, the list was at $100 but sells
for $120 now. So the publisher does raise the price. It has a retail price of just over $100 now.

From Amazon:

“This broadened and revised Third Edition offers investors the most comprehensive, up-to-date guide to this popular method of market analysis. Written by a leading
expert on chart patterns, Tom Bulkowski, this edition includes revised statistics on 75 chart patterns including 23 new ones, with pictures and performance statistics, packaged within
easy-to-read text.

  • Gain essential knowledge of chart patterns and how they are used to predict price movements in bull and bear markets
  • New tables include how often stops are hit, busted pattern performance, performance over the decades, and special pattern features
  • Joining Tour, Identification Guidelines, Focus on Failures, Statistics, Trading Tactics and Sample Trade is Experience. It puts you in the passenger’s seat so you can share lessons learned from Bulkowski’s trades
  • This edition reports on statistics from nearly four times the number of samples used in the Second Edition and ten times the number in the First Edition.

The Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns, Third Edition further solidifies the reputation of this book as the leading reference on chart patterns, setting it far above the competition.”

You can order the book at Amazon.com today and they’ll ship it out when the book is published. If you order now, it’ll boost the sale rank (from Amazon.com): “Best Sellers Rank: #56,139 in Books.”
When the second edition was released, it scored #5 in Australia. I’d like to match or beat that, so order your copy today.

$ $ $

Good Friday is a trading holiday in the US, so no regular blog post.

If you wish to support the website, then try one of these options.

  1. Perhaps the best way is come to this site and click on an image of one of my books. You’ll find the images at the bottom of the page. The click will take
    you to
    Amazon.com.
    The link passes a code to them and I receive a small referral fee but only if you buy something while there during the visit. You do NOT need to buy the book. It’s just a vehicle to get you to Amazon
    with the referral code.

    So each time you want to use Amazon.com to buy something, come to this site first. The referral is free (it does not increase the cost of anything you buy), it’s easy to do, and it supports this site.

  2. You can click on an ad. Please don’t click on them just to run up the score. Google frowns on that. If you see something of interest, then click the ad and visit their site.
    Ad sales are where most of the financial support for the site comes from. Some of you may have to turn off your ad blocker to see the ads.
  3.  

  4. Finally, you can donate to the site directly. The home page (and some other pages as well) has a Donate link at the bottom of the page. For a limited time and
    while supplies last, I’ll throw in a free book to those with addresses in the US who donate $100 or more. See the donate page for details.

Thanks! — Tom Bulkowski

$ $ $

Here’s a symbol list of 157 chart and candlestick patterns (13 “investment grade” candle patterns) found in today’s securities using my version of Patternz:
AEIS, AJRD, AYX, AEO, APH, AMAT, ACGL, AWI, ADSK, AVY, AXS, BLL, BZH, BA, BOOT, BRKS, COG, CDNS, CLS, CENX, CHD, CNO, CAG, CSOD, CREE, CSGS, CMI, EMR, EOG, EVH, XOM, FB, FIS, FISV, FLIR, FORM, GD, GE, GILD, GOOGL, GPRO, GES, HBI, HIG, HOV, HUBG, JBHT, ITGR, IBKR, IPG, INTU, ISRG, IVC, NVTA, JCOM, KLAC, KLIC, LRCX, LANC, LLY, LNC, LMT, LXU, MRO, MCHX, MLM, MDCA, MGEE, MOS, ^IXIC, NFG, NOV, NKE, NVDA, OGE, OMI, OXM, PKE, PAYX, PFG, PRU, RL, RMBS, RGA, RNG, RES, SAIA, SAIC, SMTC, SHW, SWN, SSYS, SUM, SNPS, TPX, TER, TXT, VFC, VEEV, VRTX, VMC, WRB, WEX, WMB, XLNX, IYK, IHE, FTEC, FDN, QTEC, FXL, FXI, IHF, IGV, SOXX, IGE, EWA, EWO, EWK, EEM, EWQ, EWG, EWS, EZA, EWY, EWP, EWD, EWL, EWT, TUR, QLD, PPA, PBE, QQQ, PHO, ROBO, IEV, IXN, SSO, MXI, XLF, SPY, XLK, SMH, MGK. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

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Thursday 4/1/21. 2021 Market Forecast Update

The index climbed by 1.5% or 201.48 points. Since 02/05/1971 the index made 116 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day’s…

     Average gain was 1.0% on 68 occasions.

     Average loss was -1.3% on 48 occasions.

Expect the index to close higher 58.6% of the time.

Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:

     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 211/373 or 56.6% of the time.

     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 58/121 or 47.9% of the time.

Here’s the updated 2021 forecast for April, presented in slider format.

Based on sector performance from Fidelity, the best performing sectors for year to date performance as of 31 March 2021 were…
(The numbering is how they ranked a month ago.)

9. Energy (+30.5%)

7. Financials (+16.4%)

6. Industrials (+11.4%)

3. Materials (+9.1%)

10. Real estate (+8.9%)

4. Communication services (+7.4%)

5. Health care (+2.6%)

2. Consumer discretionary (+2.1%)

11. Utilities (+1.3%)

8. Consumer staples (+0.9%)

1. Information technology (+0.2%)

Notice that the sectors which performed well a month ago are at or near the bottom of the list. Those near last month’s bottom, are riding high.

Here’s how they rank the industries, but only the top 10 appear. Year to date returns. The numbering is how they ranked a month ago.

(new) Oil, Gas and Consumable fuels (+30.7%)

(new) Airlines (+30.4.%)

(new) Real estate management and development (+26.1%)

(new) Household durables (+23.1%)

(new) Banks (+22.7%)

(new) Consumer finance (+18.2%)

2. Metals and mining (+18.1%)

(new) Machinery (+17.5%)

(new) Building products (+16.2%)

(new) Construction materials (+15.9%)

All but one of the industries are new to the list this month. Energy (Oil, Gas and Consumable fuels) tops the list with an average gain over 30%.

$ $ $

Here’s a symbol list of 111 chart and candlestick patterns (13 “investment grade” candle patterns) found in today’s securities using my version of Patternz:
ACIW, AYI, ADS, DOX, AMWD, APOG, AMAT, AWI, ADSK, BLDR, COG, CE, CENX, CHS, CHD, CLF, CGNX, CAG, CONN, CSOD, CMI, XRAY, EBAY, EMR, EOG, EXC, EZPW, FDS, FAST, FLEX, FLIR, FLS, IT, GE, GPRO, HSC, HSIC, IEX, IIIN, ITGR, IPI, NVTA, JCOM, K, KMB, KLAC, LRCX, LANC, LXU, MRO, MCHX, MLM, MAS, MDT, MGEE, CNR, NTAP, NEU, NI, NOC, OXY, OMC, PNW, PEG, KWR, SAIA, SEE, SMTC, STMP, SSYS, SUM, SNPS, TGT, TPX, TER, TXT, TKR, RIG, TZOO, UPS, VFC, VMC, WU, WMB, IYK, IHI, FXL, IYZ, SOXX, IGE, EWI, EWM, EWW, EZA, EWY, EWP, PHO, ROBO, IXN, XLK, USO, SMH. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day’s high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences),
the area might act as support or resistance.

— Thomas Bulkowski

Top

© 2021 ThePatternSite.com    Metric   Value   Diff   Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2   11,773.65      
 Weekly S2   12,494.28   720.63   
 Monthly S1   12,510.26   15.98   Yes! The Monthly S1 is close to the Weekly S2.
 Weekly S1   12,870.57   360.31   
 Daily S2   13,023.10   152.53   
 Low   13,118.38   95.28   
 Open   13,122.57   4.19   Yes! The Open is close to the Low.
 Monthly Pivot   13,133.66   11.09   Yes! The Monthly Pivot is close to the Open.
 Daily S1   13,134.99   1.33   Yes! The Daily S1 is close to the Monthly Pivot.
 Weekly Pivot   13,163.11   28.12   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High   13,197.51   34.41   
 50% Down from Intraday High   13,221.96   24.45   
 Daily Pivot   13,230.26   8.30   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 50% Down from Intraday High.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High   13,246.41   16.14   Yes! The 38.2% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 Close   13,246.87   0.46   Yes! The Close is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High.
 High   13,325.54   78.67   
 Daily R1   13,342.15   16.61   Yes! The Daily R1 is close to the High.
 Daily R2   13,437.42   95.28   
 Weekly R1   13,539.40   101.98   
 Weekly R2   13,831.94   292.53   
 Monthly R1   13,870.27   38.33   
 Monthly R2   14,493.67   623.40   


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Chart Pattern Indicator: What's It Say?…

Blog: June 2021 As of 06/04/2021   Indus: 34,756 +179.35 +0.5%     Trans: 15,467 -72.45 -0.5%     Utils: 901 -1.67 -0.2%   ...

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