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Market Monday: The Week Ahead….

Written by and copyright © 2005-2019 by Thomas N. Bulkowski. All rights reserved. Disclaimer: You alone are responsible for your investment decisions.
See Privacy/Disclaimer for more information. Some pattern names are the registered trademarks of their respective owners.


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Thursday 2/7/19. Channel Formed Intraday: Nasdaq

The index dropped by -0.4% or -26.8 points. Since 02/05/1971 the index made 428 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day’s…

     Average gain was 0.8% on 218 occasions.

     Average loss was -1.0% on 210 occasions.

Expect the index to close higher 50.9% of the time.

Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:

     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 159/288 or 55.2% of the time.

     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 49/98 or 50.0% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5 minute scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5-minute scale.

At AB (bottom of pic, on the left), a double bottom appears which confirms. The index makes a strong push higher, easily fulfilling the measure rule for the
chart pattern.

Today (Wednesday), the index formed a down-sloping channel, with the index ending the session near the top of the channel.

It’s possible that the index will push through the top trendline and soar. However, it could also bounce off that trendline and drop back down.

The pre-market-open futures will give a good indication of which alternative it happen.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day’s high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences),
the area might act as support or resistance.

— Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2019 ThePatternSite.com    Metric   Value   Diff   Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2   6,199.19      
 Monthly S1   6,787.23   588.05   
 Weekly S2   6,938.31   151.07   
 Monthly Pivot   7,045.18   106.87   
 Weekly S1   7,156.79   111.62   
 Weekly Pivot   7,229.96   73.16   
 Daily S2   7,313.54   83.58   
 Daily S1   7,344.41   30.87   
 Low   7,346.72   2.31   Yes! The Low is close to the Daily S1.
 61.8% Down from Intraday High   7,371.19   24.47   
 Close   7,375.28   4.09   Yes! The Close is close to the 61.8% Down from Intraday High.
 Daily Pivot   7,377.59   2.31   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the Close.
 50% Down from Intraday High   7,378.75   1.16   Yes! The 50% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High   7,386.30   7.56   
 Open   7,400.44   14.14   
 Daily R1   7,408.46   8.02   
 High   7,410.77   2.31   Yes! The High is close to the Daily R1.
 Daily R2   7,441.64   30.87   
 Weekly R1   7,448.44   6.80   
 Weekly R2   7,521.61   73.16   
 Monthly R1   7,633.22   111.62   
 Monthly R2   7,891.17   257.94   


Wednesday 2/6/19. A Look At Indicators

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

The chart pattern indicator, as the thin blue line near the bottom of the chart shows, has been bumping its head on the ceiling for over a month now.

That corresponds from the lift-off of the index from the December low.

Notice the brief dip in the indicator (late January) when the index moved sideways. I thought a retrace would start then, but it didn’t. The index moved sideways for about a week then has been moving
higher since.

Such a high reading suggests there’s nowhere to go but down. But that’s been true for a month now and the index has continued to rise (for the most part).

Picture of the percent down indicators

The red line is the percentage of stocks at least 20% below their 1-year high (plotted upside down). The blue line is the average percentage drop of stocks below their 1-year high (plotted upside down).

Shown as a red line on the above chart…

On Tuesday, 46% of stocks in my database are in bear market territory (down at least 20% from their 1-year high).

A week ago, it was 56%.

The fewest was 21% on 07/09/2018.

And the most was 80% on 12/24/2018.

Shown as a blue line on the above chart…

The 496 stocks in my database are down an average of 20% from their yearly high.

A week ago, the average was 24%.

The peak was 12% on 06/12/2018.

And the bottom was 33% on 12/24/2018.

Both lines continue to show improvement as the above numbers tell. The red line has made a significant recovery from a week ago, up ten percentage points. It used to be that a big move was two
points.

The lines are bullish, but maybe that’s bad news, too. The index can’t continue rising forever.

Still, I think it has a few more days of moving up before it drops.

— Thomas Bulkowski

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Tuesday 2/5/19. Intraday Market Direction: Dow

The index climbed by 0.7% or 175.48 points. Since 10/01/1928 the index made 669 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day’s…

     Average gain was 0.6% on 369 occasions.

     Average loss was -0.6% on 300 occasions.

Expect the index to close higher 55.2% of the time.

Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:

     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 180/299 or 60.2% of the time.

     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 36/71 or 50.7% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Dow industrials on the 5 minute scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Dow industrials on the 5-minute scale, but only 5 days instead of the usual 10.

Why? Because I wanted to focus on the move circled in green.

I drew a red line across the top of a pattern that looks like a Big W except the inbound trend is upward, not downward. So that’s unusual.

Pattern AB forms a small double bottom which results in a huge gain.

At day’s end, the index spiked higher in the closing minutes. Wow. Nice move. I haven’t checked for the reason for the move, but there has to be one. The question which comes to mind is this:
What happens next?

Sigh. Wish I had the answer. My guess is the index will continue to climb tomorrow, not because of the above probabilities say so, but because the pattern
resembles a busted double top. My feeling about busted patterns is that they lead to big gains. Not all the time, mind you, because that would mean
making money would be too easy.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day’s high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences),
the area might act as support or resistance.

— Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2019 ThePatternSite.com    Metric   Value   Diff   Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2   21,802.24      
 Monthly S1   23,520.80   1,718.57   
 Weekly S2   24,049.61   528.81   
 Monthly Pivot   24,356.98   307.37   
 Weekly S1   24,644.49   287.51   
 Daily S2   24,890.08   245.59   
 Weekly Pivot   24,918.82   28.74   
 Low   24,977.67   58.85   
 Open   25,062.12   84.45   
 Daily S1   25,064.72   2.60   Yes! The Daily S1 is close to the Open.
 61.8% Down from Intraday High   25,077.85   13.12   Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily S1.
 50% Down from Intraday High   25,108.79   30.94   
 38.2% Down from Intraday High   25,139.73   30.95   
 Daily Pivot   25,152.32   12.58   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High.
 Close   25,239.37   87.05   
 High   25,239.91   0.54   Yes! The High is close to the Close.
 Daily R1   25,326.96   87.05   
 Daily R2   25,414.56   87.59   
 Weekly R1   25,513.70   99.14   
 Weekly R2   25,788.03   274.33   
 Monthly R1   26,075.54   287.51   
 Monthly R2   26,911.72   836.17   


Monday 2/4/19. Market Monday: MMU Throwback in S&P

My Prediction

Picture of the S and P on the daily scale.

I show the S&P 500 index on the daily scale.

Shown is what I expect the index to do over the coming weeks.

I expect the index to power higher, reaching A. Point A will be met by overhead resistance setup by the green trendline. That resistance will push the index lower.
This might occur in concert with Trump shutting down the government or declaring an emergency. On this scale, though, I expect a downturn to happen later this week and not in mid February.

The index will return to the corrective phase of a measured move up. That is the index dropping to B, coinciding with the meager retrace (circled) I expected but which
didn’t really materialize.

After reaching bottom at B, look for the index to recover. I show that recovery as point C, but don’t think that the index will rise that far. I was more concerned with direction than extent.

Lots of things can change this picture, so keep that in mind. Plus, I’m frequently wrong.

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A Brief Look Back

Picture of a flower from my garden.

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

Monday: Down 208.98 points.

Tuesday: Up 51.74 points.

Wednesday: Up 434.9 points.

Thursday: Down 15.19 points.

Friday: Up 64.22 points.

For the Week…

The Dow industrials were up 326.69 points or 1.3%.

The Nasdaq composite was up 99.01 points or 1.4%.

The S&P 500 index was up 41.77 points or 1.6%.

Year to Date…

Dow Industrials

     0.5% down from the high of 25,193.15 on 02/01/2019.

     10.7% up from the low of 22,638.41 on 01/03/2019.

Nasdaq

     0.5% down from the high of 7,303.12 on 01/31/2019.

     12.5% up from the low of 6,457.13 on 01/03/2019.

S&P 500

     0.4% down from the high of 2,716.66 on 02/01/2019.

     10.7% up from the low of 2,443.96 on 01/03/2019.

Options Expiration

No options expire this week.

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Swing and Position Traders: Chart Pattern Indicator

As of 02/01/2019, the CPI had:

6 bearish patterns,

40 bullish patterns,

264 patterns waiting for breakout.

The CPI signal is 87.0%, which is
bullish (>= 65%).

The chart pattern indicator is bullish
with 2 of 3 full triangles showing (). Additional triangles are a measure
of strength with solid triangles meaning a more reliable signal than half triangles.

Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, “Take a
two-dimensional approach.” He offers these tips.

Index S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2
Dow Industrials (^DJI): Daily   24,869   24,967   25,080   25,177   25,291 
Weekly   23,991   24,528   24,860   25,397   25,730 
Monthly   21,744   23,404   24,298   25,959   26,853 
S&P500 (^GSPC): Daily   2,687   2,697   2,707   2,717   2,726 
Weekly   2,590   2,648   2,682   2,741   2,775 
Monthly   2,350   2,528   2,622   2,801   2,895 
Nasdaq (^IXIC): Daily   7,213   7,238   7,269   7,295   7,326 
Weekly   6,901   7,083   7,193   7,374   7,484 
Monthly   6,162   6,713   7,008   7,559   7,854 
  • Seekinger doesn’t look at the range of S2 to R2 as support and resistance levels. Rather, he considers them oversold (S) and overbought (R) areas.
  • S2 to R2 range of values across daily, weekly, and monthly periods: If two values are close together then they lend more significance to the area.
  • If the market trends on day 1, the odds rise tremendously that the market will be range bound between daily S1 and daily R1 the next day.
  • In a quiet market when traders are waiting for an important earnings announcement or economic report, look for daily R1 and S1 levels to hold and for the market to return to the daily pivot.
  • A move outside of daily R1 or S1 usually does not mean a breakout.
  • The odds suggest that the entire week’s price action will remain between weekly R2 and S2.
  • Avoid going long when the market moves above weekly R2 (it’s overbought) and avoid going short when price moves below weekly S2 (oversold).
  • Consider going short at weekly R1 or long at weekly S1 with a profit objective of the weekly pivot.
  • Consider going long at weekly S2 or short at weekly R2 with a profit objective of weekly S1 or R1, respectively.

Here are the formulas:

Pivot point: P = (H + L + C)/3

First resistance level: R1 = (2 * P) – L

First support level: S1 = (2 * P) – H)

Second resistance level: R2 = P + (R1 – S1)

Second support level: S2 = P – (R1 – S1)

H = high price , L=low price, C=closing price

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Consecutive Price Trends

Index  Consecutive
Closes So Far 
%  Comments 
 Dow industrials (^DJI)  6 weeks up  8.7%   Expect a reversal soon. 
  2 months up  42.1%   Expect a random direction. 
 S & P 500 (^GSPC)  1 week up  47.2%   Expect a random direction. 
  2 months up  46.0%   Expect a random direction. 
 Nasdaq composite (^IXIC)  6 weeks up  6.1%   Expect a reversal soon. 
  1 month down  27.2%   The trend may continue. 

How long can an index close higher (or lower) each day? The adjacent table shows how often consecutive up or down closes occur in the indices, based on the most recent trend of closes.

Low percentages suggest the market is overdue to turn (think of it as the likelihood that next week or next month will continue the trend, based on historical performance). Values of 50% mean random, so most percentages will be lower.

The analysis uses data going back 10 years for weekly percentages and 25 years for monthly percentages (or the start of data, whichever is more recent). Any unchanged closing price is interpreted as the end of the string of consecutive up or down closes.

Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season is either underway or should be starting soon. The sessions could be more volatile.

 Found  Chart Pattern Name
61 Double Bottom, Adam and Adam
14 Head-and-shoulders bottom
7 Triangle, symmetrical
5 Pipe bottom
5 Double Bottom, Eve and Adam
4 Double Bottom, Adam and Eve
3 Flag, high and tight
3 Dead-cat bounce
3 Rising wedge
3 Triple bottom

Large numbers of bullish or bearish chart patterns can signal short- to intermediate-term market trends (many bullish chart patterns can mean an uptrend will continue, for example).
However, please realize that the short-term price trend could have changed since the pattern was discovered (this is especially true of pipe tops or bottoms, which are weekly patterns).

The 10 types of most frequently appearing chart patterns in the stocks, indices, and long-only exchange traded funds I follow during the last month are shown in the adjacent table.

 

 

 

 

The industries I follow were the best (rank 1) and worst performing.

This Week Last Week
1. Precision Instrument 1. Precision Instrument
2. Shoe 2. Short ETFs
3. Electric Utility (Central) 3. Electric Utility (Central)
4. Computer Software and Svcs 4. Electric Utility (East)
5. Electric Utility (East) 5. Household Products

— Thomas Bulkowski

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Friday 2/1/19. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

Go to Table.

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

Click the link for a list of symbols from the table.

The following patterns were found manually, so the results may differ from those found using Patternz.

There were 14 patterns found this week (excluding pipe bottoms; pipe tops and bottoms are found looking back 2 weeks) out of 598 stocks searched, or 2.3%. Based on the percentage, the stock market is
trending
since few consolidation patterns appear.

Excluding ETFs, there were 6 bullish chart patterns this week and 4 bearish ones with any remaining (4) being undecided.
The ratio of bullish to bearish patterns suggests the market is hinting of a coming bullish (up) turn.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

More…

— Thomas Bulkowski

 

 

Weekly screen for chart patterns ending between 01/24/2019 and 01/31/2019. Many may be still in development. If no securities appear, then I have not identified any new patterns.

Definitions

RS is relative strength (where 1 is best). For other definitions, see the glossary.

’Breakout is upward/downward 100% of the time’ means price breaks out up/down by definition, not by statistically measuring the rate.

All numbers assume a bull market and are based on the breakout direction that occurs most often.

 

Accelerate Diagnostics Inc (AXDX)

Industry: Medical Services

Industry RS rank: 14 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 428 out of 592

1/31/19 close: $18.21

1 Month avg volatility: $1.18. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $15.61 or 14.3% below the close.

Change YTD: 58.35%

Volume: 410,500 shares.
3 month avg: 533,922 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.

 

Chart pattern: Flag, high and tight continuation pattern from 12/21/2018 to 01/28/2019

Breakout is upward 100% of the time.

Average rise: 69%.

Throwbacks occur 54% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 90% of the time.

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Alaska Air Group, Inc (ALK)

Industry: Air Transport

Industry RS rank: 51 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 127 out of 592

1/31/19 close: $63.95

1 Month avg volatility: $1.80. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $68.31 or 6.8% above the close.

Change YTD: 5.09%

Volume: 1,649,600 shares.
3 month avg: 1,966,126 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.

 

Chart pattern: Diamond top reversal pattern from 01/16/2019 to 01/31/2019

Breakout is downward 69% of the time.

Average decline: 21%.

Break-even failure rate: 6%.

Pullbacks occur 57% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 76% of the time.

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Automatic Data Processing Inc (ADP)

Industry: IT Services

Industry RS rank: 11 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 117 out of 592

1/31/19 close: $139.84

1 Month avg volatility: $2.40. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $145.94 or 4.4% above the close.

Change YTD: 6.65%

Volume: 5,774,100 shares.
3 month avg: 2,140,888 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.

 

Chart pattern: Rising wedge reversal pattern from 12/31/2018 to 01/29/2019

Breakout is downward 69% of the time.

Average decline: 14%.

Break-even failure rate: 24%.

Pullbacks occur 63% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 46% of the time.

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E-Trade Financial Corp (ETFC)

Industry: Securities Brokerage

Industry RS rank: 50 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 506 out of 592

1/31/19 close: $46.66

1 Month avg volatility: $1.16. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $49.03 or 5.1% above the close.

Change YTD: 6.34%

Volume: 5,114,200 shares.
3 month avg: 2,308,982 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.

 

Chart pattern: Pipe top reversal pattern from 01/14/2019 to 01/22/2019

Breakout is downward 100% of the time.

Average decline: 20%.

Break-even failure rate: 11%.

Pullbacks occur 41% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.

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GameStop Corp (GME)

Industry: Retail (Special Lines)

Industry RS rank: 48 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 507 out of 592

1/31/19 close: $11.34

1 Month avg volatility: $0.64. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $12.82 or 13.0% above the close.

Change YTD: -10.14%

Volume: 6,049,600 shares.
3 month avg: 3,063,175 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.

 

Chart pattern: Dead-cat bounce continuation pattern from 01/28/2019 to 01/29/2019

Breakout is downward 67% of the time.

Average decline: 18%.

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GoPro (GPRO)

Industry: Electronics

Industry RS rank: 36 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 481 out of 592

1/31/19 close: $4.93

1 Month avg volatility: $0.21. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $4.46 or 9.5% below the close.

Change YTD: 16.27%

Volume: 3,137,300 shares.
3 month avg: 5,624,629 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Thursday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.

 

Chart pattern: Rectangle top continuation pattern from 01/11/2019 to 01/31/2019

WARNING: A dead-cat bounce occurred on 11/02/2018. There is a 26% chance that a 15% or higher decline will occur (or has occurred since then) by 02/01/2019 and a 38% chance by 05/03/2019.

Breakout is upward 68% of the time.

Average rise: 39%.

Break-even failure rate: 9%.

Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 80% of the time.

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Graco Incorporated (GGG)

Industry: Machinery

Industry RS rank: 29 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 283 out of 592

1/31/19 close: $43.33

1 Month avg volatility: $0.89. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $45.42 or 4.8% above the close.

Change YTD: 3.54%

Volume: 575,900 shares.
3 month avg: 251,886 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.

 

Chart pattern: Broadening top reversal pattern from 01/09/2019 to 01/29/2019

Breakout is downward 50% of the time.

Average decline: 15%.

Break-even failure rate: 18%.

Pullbacks occur 48% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 37% of the time.

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Hanover Insurance Group, The (THG)

Industry: Insurance (Prop/Casualty)

Industry RS rank: 27 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 338 out of 592

1/31/19 close: $114.04

1 Month avg volatility: $2.51. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $102.37 or 10.2% below the close.

Change YTD: -2.34%

Volume: 623,000 shares.
3 month avg: 201,215 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Monday.

 

Chart pattern: Diamond bottom reversal pattern from 11/19/2018 to 01/25/2019

Breakout is upward 69% of the time.

Average rise: 36%.

Break-even failure rate: 4%.

Throwbacks occur 53% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 81% of the time.

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Hurco Companies Inc. (HURC)

Industry: Machinery

Industry RS rank: 29 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 435 out of 592

1/31/19 close: $38.35

1 Month avg volatility: $1.37. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $35.35 or 7.8% below the close.

Change YTD: 7.42%

Volume: 10,600 shares.
3 month avg: 26,271 shares.

This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.

 

Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 12/28/2018 to 01/30/2019

Breakout is upward 54% of the time.

Average rise: 31%.

Break-even failure rate: 9%.

Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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MDC Holdings Inc. (MDC)

Industry: Homebuilding

Industry RS rank: 28 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 81 out of 592

1/31/19 close: $32.93

1 Month avg volatility: $1.07. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $28.24 or 14.2% below the close.

Change YTD: 17.15%

Volume: 817,500 shares.
3 month avg: 498,709 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.

 

Chart pattern: Double Bottom, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 01/22/2019 to 01/29/2019

Breakout is upward 100% of the time.

Average rise: 35%.

Break-even failure rate: 5%.

Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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MDC Pateners Inc (MDCA)

Industry: Advertising

Industry RS rank: 10 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 570 out of 592

1/31/19 close: $2.97

1 Month avg volatility: $0.14. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $2.63 or 11.5% below the close.

Change YTD: 13.79%

Volume: 182,400 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.

 

Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 11/28/2018 to 01/29/2019

Breakout is upward 54% of the time.

Average rise: 31%.

Break-even failure rate: 9%.

Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Microsoft Corp (MSFT)

Industry: Computer Software and Svcs

Industry RS rank: 3 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 221 out of 592

1/31/19 close: $104.43

1 Month avg volatility: $2.10. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $109.42 or 4.8% above the close.

Change YTD: 2.82%

Volume: 55,442,200 shares.
3 month avg: 21,460,729 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.

 

Chart pattern: Double Top, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 01/18/2019 to 01/25/2019

Breakout is downward 100% of the time.

Average decline: 19%.

Break-even failure rate: 8%.

Pullbacks occur 61% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 72% of the time.

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Morgan Stanley (MS)

Industry: Securities Brokerage

Industry RS rank: 50 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 438 out of 592

1/31/19 close: $42.30

1 Month avg volatility: $1.05. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $40.08 or 5.3% below the close.

Change YTD: 6.68%

Volume: 11,163,400 shares.
3 month avg: 7,779,832 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.

 

Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 01/17/2019 to 01/31/2019

Breakout is upward 54% of the time.

Average rise: 31%.

Break-even failure rate: 9%.

Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Tuesday Morning Corp (TUES)

Industry: Retail Store

Industry RS rank: 30 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 554 out of 592

1/31/19 close: $1.98

1 Month avg volatility: $0.12. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $1.74 or 12.3% below the close.

Change YTD: 16.47%

Volume: 3,205,100 shares.
3 month avg: 391,566 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Monday.

 

Chart pattern: Big W reversal pattern from 12/31/2018 to 01/29/2019

Breakout is upward 71% of the time.

Average rise: 31%.

Break-even failure rate: 11%.

Throwbacks occur 32% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 42% of the time.

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Written by and copyright © 2005-2019 by Thomas N. Bulkowski. All rights reserved. Disclaimer: You alone are responsible for your investment decisions.
See Privacy/Disclaimer for more information. Some pattern names are the registered trademarks of their respective owners.


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Blog: June 2021 As of 06/04/2021   Indus: 34,756 +179.35 +0.5%     Trans: 15,467 -72.45 -0.5%     Utils: 901 -1.67 -0.2%   ...

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