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Market Monday: The Week Ahead….

Bulkowski’s Blog: November 2019

Bulkowski's Blog: ThePatternSite.com

As of 11/07/2019

  Indus: 27,675 +182.24 +0.7%  

  Trans: 11,091 +61.33 +0.6%  

  Utils: 838 -12.02 -1.4%  

  Nasdaq: 8,435 +23.89 +0.3%  

  S&P 500: 3,085 +8.40 +0.3%  

YTD

 +18.6%  

 +20.9%  

 +17.6%  

 +27.1%  

 +23.1%  

  Up arrow27,750 or 26,900 by 11/15/2019
  Up arrow11,300 or 10,100 by 11/15/2019
  Up arrow900 or 830 by 11/15/2019
  Up arrow8,500 or 8,000 by 11/15/2019
  Up arrow3,150 or 2,950 by 11/15/2019

As of 11/07/2019

  Indus: 27,675 +182.24 +0.7%  

  Trans: 11,091 +61.33 +0.6%  

  Utils: 838 -12.02 -1.4%  

  Nasdaq: 8,435 +23.89 +0.3%  

  S&P 500: 3,085 +8.40 +0.3%  

YTD

 +18.6%  

 +20.9%  

 +17.6%  

 +27.1%  

 +23.1%  

  Up arrow27,750 or 26,900 by 11/15/2019
  Up arrow11,300 or 10,100 by 11/15/2019
  Up arrow900 or 830 by 11/15/2019
  Up arrow8,500 or 8,000 by 11/15/2019
  Up arrow3,150 or 2,950 by 11/15/2019

 


Friday 11/8/19. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

Go to Table.

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

Click the link for a list of symbols from the table.

The following patterns were found manually, so the results may differ from those found using Patternz.

Mr. Bulkowski has excluded any securities he owns from appearing in the list. However, he may add any of the securities listed to his portfolio at any time, just as you can.

There were 18 patterns found this week (excluding pipe bottoms; pipe tops and bottoms are found looking back 2 weeks) out of 586 stocks searched, or 3.1%. Based on the percentage, the stock market is
trending
since few consolidation patterns appear.

Excluding ETFs, there were 3 bullish chart patterns this week and 7 bearish ones with any remaining (8) being undecided.
The ratio of bullish to bearish patterns suggests the market is hinting of a coming bearish (down) turn.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

More…

— Thomas Bulkowski

 

 

Weekly screen for chart patterns ending between 10/31/2019 and 11/07/2019. Many may be still in development. If no securities appear, then I have not identified any new patterns.

Definitions

RS is relative strength (where 1 is best). For other definitions, see the glossary.

’Breakout is upward/downward 100% of the time’ means price breaks out up/down by definition, not by statistically measuring the rate.

All numbers assume a bull market and are based on the breakout direction that occurs most often.

 

Ashland Inc. (ASH)

Industry: Chemical (Basic)

Industry RS rank: 3 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 348 out of 581

11/7/19 close: $77.91

1 Month avg volatility: $1.23. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $81.15 or 4.2% above the close.

Change YTD: 9.79%

Volume: 433,600 shares.
3 month avg: 610,854 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.

 

Chart pattern: Rising wedge reversal pattern from 10/01/2019 to 11/07/2019

Breakout is downward 69% of the time.

Average decline: 14%.

Break-even failure rate: 24%.

Pullbacks occur 63% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 46% of the time.

Top

Black Hills Corp (BKH)

Industry: Electric Utility (West)

Industry RS rank: 39 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 353 out of 581

11/7/19 close: $75.10

1 Month avg volatility: $1.25. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $78.16 or 4.1% above the close.

Change YTD: 19.62%

Volume: 505,100 shares.
3 month avg: 512,838 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.

 

Chart pattern: Double Top, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 10/24/2019 to 11/04/2019

Breakout is downward 100% of the time.

Average decline: 19%.

Break-even failure rate: 8%.

Pullbacks occur 61% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 72% of the time.

Top

Build-A-Bear Workshop Inc (BBW)

Industry: Retail (Special Lines)

Industry RS rank: 18 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 561 out of 581

11/7/19 close: $3.41

1 Month avg volatility: $0.24. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $2.89 or 15.4% below the close.

Change YTD: -13.67%

Volume: 672,400 shares.
3 month avg: 99,982 shares.

This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.

 

Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 10/11/2019 to 11/05/2019

Breakout is upward 54% of the time.

Average rise: 31%.

Break-even failure rate: 9%.

Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

Top

Clean Energy Fuels Corp. (CLNE)

Industry: Natural Gas (Distributor)

Industry RS rank: 54 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 540 out of 581

11/7/19 close: $2.34

1 Month avg volatility: $0.08. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $2.18 or 6.8% below the close.

Change YTD: 36.05%

Volume: 718,800 shares.
3 month avg: 1,021,160 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.

 

Chart pattern: Scallop, ascending continuation pattern from 10/17/2019 to 11/06/2019

Breakout is upward 80% of the time.

Average rise: 31%.

Break-even failure rate: 10%.

Throwbacks occur 58% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 58% of the time.

Top

Corning Inc. (GLW)

Industry: Telecom. Equipment

Industry RS rank: 30 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 399 out of 581

11/7/19 close: $30.19

1 Month avg volatility: $0.62. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $31.53 or 4.5% above the close.

Change YTD: -0.07%

Volume: 3,807,300 shares.
3 month avg: 5,449,098 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.

 

Chart pattern: Diamond top reversal pattern from 10/21/2019 to 11/07/2019

Breakout is downward 69% of the time.

Average decline: 21%.

Break-even failure rate: 6%.

Pullbacks occur 57% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 76% of the time.

Top

Coty (COTY)

Industry: Toiletries/Cosmetics

Industry RS rank: 28 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 155 out of 581

11/7/19 close: $13.00

1 Month avg volatility: $0.40. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $12.01 or 7.6% below the close.

Change YTD: 98.17%

Volume: 7,574,400 shares.
3 month avg: 5,764,371 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Thursday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.

 

Chart pattern: Flag continuation pattern from 10/23/2019 to 11/05/2019

Breakout is upward 54% of the time.

Average rise: 23%.

Break-even failure rate: 4%.

Throwbacks occur 43% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 64% of the time.

Top

DJ 15 Utilities (^DJU)

Industry: None

Industry RS rank is unavailable.

11/7/19 close: $838.34

1 Month avg volatility: $8.74. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $815.74 or 2.7% below the close.

Change YTD: 17.59%

Volume: 61,037,800 shares.
3 month avg: 45,626,151 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.

 

Chart pattern: Broadening top, right-angled and descending continuation pattern from 09/24/2019 to 11/05/2019

Breakout is upward 51% of the time.

Average rise: 28%.

Break-even failure rate: 19%.

Throwbacks occur 52% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 63% of the time.

Top

FirstEnergy Corp. (FE)

Industry: Electric Utility (East)

Industry RS rank: 14 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 149 out of 581

11/7/19 close: $46.72

1 Month avg volatility: $0.63. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $48.24 or 3.3% above the close.

Change YTD: 24.42%

Volume: 9,812,200 shares.
3 month avg: 4,155,280 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.

 

Chart pattern: Triple top reversal pattern from 09/26/2019 to 11/04/2019

Breakout is downward 100% of the time.

Average decline: 19%.

Break-even failure rate: 10%.

Pullbacks occur 61% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 40% of the time.

Top

Insperity (NSP)

Industry: Human Resources

Industry RS rank: 52 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 566 out of 581

11/7/19 close: $69.05

1 Month avg volatility: $2.47. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $74.21 or 7.5% above the close.

Change YTD: -26.04%

Volume: 1,075,000 shares.
3 month avg: 131,942 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.

 

Chart pattern: Dead-cat bounce continuation pattern from 11/04/2019 to 11/04/2019

Breakout is downward 67% of the time.

Average decline: 18%.

Top

Intrepid Potash Inc (IPI)

Industry: Chemical (Diversified)

Industry RS rank: 19 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 546 out of 581

11/7/19 close: $2.60

1 Month avg volatility: $0.12. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $3.03 or 16.5% above the close.

Change YTD: 0.00%

Volume: 1,013,000 shares.
3 month avg: 1,190,495 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.

 

Chart pattern: Double Top, Eve and Adam reversal pattern from 10/24/2019 to 11/04/2019

Breakout is downward 100% of the time.

Average decline: 15%.

Break-even failure rate: 13%.

Pullbacks occur 64% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 72% of the time.

Top

Invacare Corp. (IVC)

Industry: Medical Supplies

Industry RS rank: 16 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 3 out of 581

11/7/19 close: $11.26

1 Month avg volatility: $0.55. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $8.97 or 20.4% below the close.

Change YTD: 161.86%

Volume: 3,530,000 shares.
3 month avg: 553,063 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.

 

Chart pattern: Flag, high and tight continuation pattern from 10/22/2019 to 11/07/2019

Breakout is upward 100% of the time.

Average rise: 69%.

Throwbacks occur 54% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 90% of the time.

Top

Johnson and Johnson (JNJ)

Industry: Medical Supplies

Industry RS rank: 16 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 433 out of 581

11/7/19 close: $131.43

1 Month avg volatility: $2.20. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $136.79 or 4.1% above the close.

Change YTD: 1.84%

Volume: 5,873,700 shares.
3 month avg: 5,464,417 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.

 

Chart pattern: Diamond top reversal pattern from 10/08/2019 to 11/06/2019

Breakout is downward 69% of the time.

Average decline: 21%.

Break-even failure rate: 6%.

Pullbacks occur 57% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 76% of the time.

Top

Micron Technology (MU)

Industry: Semiconductor

Industry RS rank: 7 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 64 out of 581

11/7/19 close: $48.40

1 Month avg volatility: $1.14. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $51.36 or 6.1% above the close.

Change YTD: 52.54%

Volume: 19,081,800 shares.
3 month avg: 38,182,855 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.

 

Chart pattern: Diamond top reversal pattern from 10/28/2019 to 11/07/2019

Breakout is downward 69% of the time.

Average decline: 21%.

Break-even failure rate: 6%.

Pullbacks occur 57% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 76% of the time.

Top

Miller, Herman (MLHR)

Industry: Furn/Home Furnishings

Industry RS rank: 13 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 54 out of 581

11/7/19 close: $47.58

1 Month avg volatility: $0.88. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $49.58 or 4.2% above the close.

Change YTD: 57.29%

Volume: 319,400 shares.
3 month avg: 361,806 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.

 

Chart pattern: Rising wedge reversal pattern from 10/01/2019 to 11/07/2019

Breakout is downward 69% of the time.

Average decline: 14%.

Break-even failure rate: 24%.

Pullbacks occur 63% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 46% of the time.

Top

Myriad Genetics Inc (MYGN)

Industry: Biotechnology

Industry RS rank: 33 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 493 out of 581

11/7/19 close: $23.53

1 Month avg volatility: $1.24. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $26.86 or 14.2% above the close.

Change YTD: -19.06%

Volume: 2,198,100 shares.
3 month avg: 906,888 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.

 

Chart pattern: Dead-cat bounce continuation pattern from 11/05/2019 to 11/05/2019

Breakout is downward 67% of the time.

Average decline: 18%.

Top

NextEra Energy Inc (NEE)

Industry: Electric Utility (East)

Industry RS rank: 14 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 82 out of 581

11/7/19 close: $223.09

1 Month avg volatility: $3.53. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $233.71 or 4.8% above the close.

Change YTD: 28.35%

Volume: 3,118,300 shares.
3 month avg: 1,582,705 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.

 

Chart pattern: Double Top, Eve and Adam reversal pattern from 10/22/2019 to 11/01/2019

Breakout is downward 100% of the time.

Average decline: 15%.

Break-even failure rate: 13%.

Pullbacks occur 64% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 72% of the time.

Top

Public Service Enterprise Group PEG (PEG)

Industry: Electric Utility (East)

Industry RS rank: 14 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 268 out of 581

11/7/19 close: $61.27

1 Month avg volatility: $0.77. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $63.32 or 3.3% above the close.

Change YTD: 17.71%

Volume: 1,862,000 shares.
3 month avg: 3,334,326 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.

 

Chart pattern: Triple top reversal pattern from 10/11/2019 to 11/01/2019

Breakout is downward 100% of the time.

Average decline: 19%.

Break-even failure rate: 10%.

Pullbacks occur 61% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 40% of the time.

Top

Regis Corp (RGS)

Industry: Toiletries/Cosmetics

Industry RS rank: 28 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 384 out of 581

11/7/19 close: $18.55

1 Month avg volatility: $0.77. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $20.10 or 8.4% above the close.

Change YTD: 9.44%

Volume: 395,200 shares.
3 month avg: 193,511 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.

 

Chart pattern: Pipe top reversal pattern from 10/21/2019 to 10/28/2019

Breakout is downward 100% of the time.

Average decline: 20%.

Break-even failure rate: 11%.

Pullbacks occur 41% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.

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Thursday 11/7/19. Intraday Market Direction: Nasdaq

The index dropped by -0.3% or -24.05 points. Since 02/05/1971 the index made 514 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day’s…

     Average gain was 0.8% on 278 occasions.

     Average loss was -1.0% on 236 occasions.

Expect the index to close higher 54.1% of the time.

Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:

     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 177/318 or 55.7% of the time.

     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 53/105 or 50.5% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5 minute scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5-minute scale.

I looked at this chart of the index and decided to zoom in on the last 2 days of price movement.

I noticed the large swing up at A and down at B. It reminded me of the measure rule for trendlines. It says that the height above the trendline will
match the move below the trendline.

Although a trendline isn’t involved in this chart, the move up to A mirrors the one down to B. In this example, the down move extends a bit lower than does the move up, but it’s close.

Maybe you can use this rule to your advantage as you trade to estimate a price target. Just be careful because it doesn’t always work.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day’s high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences),
the area might act as support or resistance.

— Thomas Bulkowski

Top

© 2019 ThePatternSite.com    Metric   Value   Diff   Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2   7,479.04      
 Monthly S1   7,944.84   465.79   
 Monthly Pivot   8,165.79   220.96   
 Weekly S2   8,201.31   35.52   
 Weekly S1   8,305.97   104.66   
 Weekly Pivot   8,346.36   40.39   
 Daily S2   8,358.27   11.91   
 Low   8,379.33   21.06   
 Daily S1   8,384.45   5.12   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High   8,397.38   12.93   
 50% Down from Intraday High   8,402.95   5.57   
 Daily Pivot   8,405.51   2.56   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 50% Down from Intraday High.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High   8,408.52   3.01   Yes! The 38.2% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 Close   8,410.63   2.11   Yes! The Close is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High.
 Open   8,426.57   15.94   
 High   8,426.57   0.00   Yes! The High is close to the Open.
 Daily R1   8,431.69   5.12   
 Weekly R1   8,451.02   19.33   
 Daily R2   8,452.75   1.73   Yes! The Daily R2 is close to the Weekly R1.
 Weekly R2   8,491.41   38.66   
 Monthly R1   8,631.59   140.18   
 Monthly R2   8,852.54   220.96   


Wednesday 11/6/19. Indicators: Bearish!

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

Notice how the thin blue indicator line at the bottom of the chart is trending downward but the index is rising. That’s bad news.

It’s bearish divergence. However, the indicator is tricky because it can change for up to a week. And that means the hump on the indicator line on the right might be higher than
that shown. In other words, there might not be bearish divergence if the index were to zip higher by a several hundred points.

As it stands now, though, it’s bearish.

Picture of the percent down indicators

The red line is the percentage of stocks at least 20% below their 1-year high (plotted upside down). The blue line is the average percentage drop of stocks below their 1-year high (plotted upside down).

Shown as a red line on the above chart…

On Tuesday, 29% of stocks in my database are in bear market territory (down at least 20% from their 1-year high).

A week ago, it was 30%.

The fewest was 29% on 11/04/2019.

And the most was 81% on 12/24/2018.

Shown as a blue line on the above chart…

The 484 stocks in my database are down an average of 16% from their yearly high.

A week ago, the average was 17%.

The peak was 16% on 11/04/2019.

And the bottom was 33% on 12/24/2018.

Both indicator lines show improvement over a week ago, not by a lot (one percentage point) but it’s still an improvement.

The prior chart is bearish but subject to change and this one is bullish. Which one wins?

Answer: the prior chart. So I’m looking for the index to drop. A look at the charts of the stocks I own, some had made huge gains because of earnings, but the others are looking tired, as if
they are about to turn down. That evidence tells me the market is weak and headed lower.

— Thomas Bulkowski

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Tuesday 11/5/19. Slider Quiz! Rounding Bottoms

The index climbed by 0.4% or 114.75 points. Since 10/01/1928 the index made 1098 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day’s…

     Average gain was 0.6% on 579 occasions.

     Average loss was -0.5% on 519 occasions.

Expect the index to close higher 52.7% of the time.

Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:

     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 194/329 or 59.0% of the time.

     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 38/76 or 50.0% of the time.

$ $ $

I show a another slider quiz featuring the rounding bottom chart pattern.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day’s high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences),
the area might act as support or resistance.

— Thomas Bulkowski

Top

© 2019 ThePatternSite.com    Metric   Value   Diff   Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2   25,247.03      
 Monthly S1   26,354.57   1,107.54   
 Weekly S2   26,813.47   458.90   
 Monthly Pivot   26,851.00   37.53   
 Weekly S1   27,137.79   286.79   
 Weekly Pivot   27,242.61   104.82   
 Daily S2   27,345.06   102.45   
 Low   27,402.06   57.00   
 Open   27,402.06   0.00   Yes! The Open is close to the Low.
 Daily S1   27,403.59   1.53   Yes! The Daily S1 is close to the Open.
 61.8% Down from Intraday High   27,446.19   42.60   
 50% Down from Intraday High   27,459.82   13.63   
 Daily Pivot   27,460.58   0.76   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 50% Down from Intraday High.
 Close   27,462.11   1.53   Yes! The Close is close to the Daily Pivot.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High   27,473.45   11.34   Yes! The 38.2% Down from Intraday High is close to the Close.
 High   27,517.58   44.13   
 Daily R1   27,519.11   1.53   Yes! The Daily R1 is close to the High.
 Weekly R1   27,566.93   47.82   
 Daily R2   27,576.10   9.17   Yes! The Daily R2 is close to the Weekly R1.
 Weekly R2   27,671.75   95.65   
 Monthly R1   27,958.54   286.79   
 Monthly R2   28,454.97   496.43   


Monday 11/4/19. Market Monday: The Week Ahead

My Prediction

Picture of the SPX on the daily scale.

I show the S&P 500 index on the daily scale.

This chart is a yawn. Why? Because there’s not much to write about.

The index moved to a new high (A). Not just a yearly high, but an all-time high.

And that’s it. What more is there to say?

I guess I can add that I believe the index will continue rising.

 

 

 

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A Brief Look Back

Picture of a flower from my garden.

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

Monday: Up 132.66 points.

Tuesday: Down 19.3 points.

Wednesday: Up 115.27 points.

Thursday: Down 140.46 points.

Friday: Up 301.13 points.

For the Week…

The Dow industrials were up 389.3 points or 1.4%.

The Nasdaq composite was up 143.28 points or 1.7%.

The S&P 500 index was up 44.36 points or 1.5%.

Year to Date…

Dow Industrials

     0.2% down from the high of 27,398.68 on 07/16/2019.

     20.8% up from the low of 22,638.41 on 01/03/2019.

Nasdaq

     0.0% down from the high of 8,386.75 on 11/01/2019.

     29.9% up from the low of 6,457.13 on 01/03/2019.

S&P 500

     0.0% down from the high of 3,066.95 on 11/01/2019.

     25.5% up from the low of 2,443.96 on 01/03/2019.

Options Expiration

No options expire this week.

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Swing and Position Traders: Chart Pattern Indicator

As of 11/01/2019, the CPI had:

1 bearish patterns,

25 bullish patterns,

234 patterns waiting for breakout.

The CPI signal is 96.2%, which is
bullish (>= 65%).

The chart pattern indicator is bullish
with 2 of 3 full triangles showing (). Additional triangles are a measure
of strength with solid triangles meaning a more reliable signal than half triangles.

Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, “Take a
two-dimensional approach.” He offers these tips.

Index S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2
Dow Industrials (^DJI): Daily   27,075   27,211   27,279   27,416   27,484 
Weekly   26,775   27,061   27,204   27,490   27,634 
Monthly   25,209   26,278   26,813   27,882   28,417 
S&P500 (^GSPC): Daily   3,045   3,056   3,062   3,072   3,078 
Weekly   3,009   3,038   3,052   3,082   3,096 
Monthly   2,786   2,926   2,997   3,137   3,208 
Nasdaq (^IXIC): Daily   8,306   8,346   8,367   8,407   8,427 
Weekly   8,193   8,290   8,338   8,435   8,483 
Monthly   7,471   7,929   8,158   8,615   8,844 
  • Seekinger doesn’t look at the range of S2 to R2 as support and resistance levels. Rather, he considers them oversold (S) and overbought (R) areas.
  • S2 to R2 range of values across daily, weekly, and monthly periods: If two values are close together then they lend more significance to the area.
  • If the market trends on day 1, the odds rise tremendously that the market will be range bound between daily S1 and daily R1 the next day.
  • In a quiet market when traders are waiting for an important earnings announcement or economic report, look for daily R1 and S1 levels to hold and for the market to return to the daily pivot.
  • A move outside of daily R1 or S1 usually does not mean a breakout.
  • The odds suggest that the entire week’s price action will remain between weekly R2 and S2.
  • Avoid going long when the market moves above weekly R2 (it’s overbought) and avoid going short when price moves below weekly S2 (oversold).
  • Consider going short at weekly R1 or long at weekly S1 with a profit objective of the weekly pivot.
  • Consider going long at weekly S2 or short at weekly R2 with a profit objective of weekly S1 or R1, respectively.

Here are the formulas:

Pivot point: P = (H + L + C)/3

First resistance level: R1 = (2 * P) – L

First support level: S1 = (2 * P) – H)

Second resistance level: R2 = P + (R1 – S1)

Second support level: S2 = P – (R1 – S1)

H = high price , L=low price, C=closing price

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Consecutive Price Trends

Index  Consecutive
Closes So Far 
%  Comments 
 Dow industrials (^DJI)  2 weeks up  34.3%   The trend may continue. 
  3 months up  33.4%   The trend may continue. 
 S & P 500 (^GSPC)  4 weeks up  18.9%   Expect a reversal soon. 
  3 months up  41.2%   Expect a random direction. 
 Nasdaq composite (^IXIC)  5 weeks up  13.8%   Expect a reversal soon. 
  3 months up  31.2%   The trend may continue. 

How long can an index close higher (or lower) each day? The adjacent table shows how often consecutive up or down closes occur in the indices, based on the most recent trend of closes.

Low percentages suggest the market is overdue to turn (think of it as the likelihood that next week or next month will continue the trend, based on historical performance). Values of 50% mean random, so most percentages will be lower.

The analysis uses data going back 10 years for weekly percentages and 25 years for monthly percentages (or the start of data, whichever is more recent). Any unchanged closing price is interpreted as the end of the string of consecutive up or down closes.

Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season is either underway or should be starting soon. The sessions could be more volatile.

Mutual funds will begin dividend distributions and rebalancing their portfolios for the approaching year end (starts in late November).

 Found  Chart Pattern Name
37 Pipe bottom
16 Triangle, symmetrical
12 Double Bottom, Adam and Adam
7 Dead-cat bounce
7 Scallop, descending
6 Scallop, ascending
5 V bottoms
5 Head-and-shoulders bottom
4 Scallop, ascending and inverted
3 Diamond top

Large numbers of bullish or bearish chart patterns can signal short- to intermediate-term market trends (many bullish chart patterns can mean an uptrend will continue, for example).
However, please realize that the short-term price trend could have changed since the pattern was discovered (this is especially true of pipe tops or bottoms, which are weekly patterns).

The 10 types of most frequently appearing chart patterns in the stocks, indices, and long-only exchange traded funds I follow during the last month are shown in the adjacent table.

The industries I follow were the best (rank 1) and worst performing.

This Week Last Week
1. Homebuilding 1. Homebuilding
2. Chemical (Basic) 2. Trucking/Transp. Leasing
3. Semiconductor Cap Equip. 3. Cement and Aggregates
4. Trucking/Transp. Leasing 4. Semiconductor Cap Equip.
5. Cement and Aggregates 5. Chemical (Basic)

— Thomas Bulkowski

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Friday 11/1/19. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

Go to Table.

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

Click the link for a list of symbols from the table.

The following patterns were found manually, so the results may differ from those found using Patternz.

Mr. Bulkowski has excluded any securities he owns from appearing in the list. However, he may add any of the securities listed to his portfolio at any time, just as you can.

There were 20 patterns found this week (excluding pipe bottoms; pipe tops and bottoms are found looking back 2 weeks) out of 586 stocks searched, or 3.4%. Based on the percentage, the stock market is
trending
since few consolidation patterns appear.

Excluding ETFs, there were 8 bullish chart patterns this week and 5 bearish ones with any remaining (7) being undecided.
The ratio of bullish to bearish patterns suggests the market is hinting of a coming bullish (up) turn.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

More…

— Thomas Bulkowski

 

 

Weekly screen for chart patterns ending between 10/24/2019 and 10/31/2019. Many may be still in development. If no securities appear, then I have not identified any new patterns.

Definitions

RS is relative strength (where 1 is best). For other definitions, see the glossary.

’Breakout is upward/downward 100% of the time’ means price breaks out up/down by definition, not by statistically measuring the rate.

All numbers assume a bull market and are based on the breakout direction that occurs most often.

 

Accenture plc (ACN)

Industry: IT Services

Industry RS rank: 20 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 284 out of 581

10/31/19 close: $185.42

1 Month avg volatility: $2.92. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $193.91 or 4.6% above the close.

Change YTD: 31.49%

Volume: 1,574,800 shares.
3 month avg: 1,995,040 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.

 

Chart pattern: Rectangle bottom continuation pattern from 10/08/2019 to 10/31/2019

Breakout is downward 55% of the time.

Average decline: 14%.

Break-even failure rate: 16%.

Pullbacks occur 69% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 50% of the time.

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Ashland Inc. (ASH)

Industry: Chemical (Basic)

Industry RS rank: 3 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 282 out of 581

10/31/19 close: $77.37

1 Month avg volatility: $1.32. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $80.66 or 4.3% above the close.

Change YTD: 9.03%

Volume: 361,100 shares.
3 month avg: 610,854 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.

 

Chart pattern: Roof, inverted reversal pattern from 09/13/2019 to 10/31/2019

Breakout is downward 50% of the time.

Average decline: 17%.

Break-even failure rate: 10%.

Pullbacks occur 56% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 73% of the time.

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Avon Products (AVP)

Industry: Toiletries/Cosmetics

Industry RS rank: 28 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 17 out of 581

10/31/19 close: $4.29

1 Month avg volatility: $0.15. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $4.65 or 8.4% above the close.

Change YTD: 182.24%

Volume: 5,688,000 shares.
3 month avg: 3,898,403 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.

 

Chart pattern: Triangle, descending reversal pattern from 09/03/2019 to 10/31/2019

Breakout is downward 64% of the time.

Average decline: 16%.

Break-even failure rate: 16%.

Pullbacks occur 54% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 54% of the time.

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Ball Corp (BLL)

Industry: Packaging and Container

Industry RS rank: 13 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 68 out of 581

10/31/19 close: $69.97

1 Month avg volatility: $1.85. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $78.46 or 12.1% above the close.

Change YTD: 52.17%

Volume: 5,009,000 shares.
3 month avg: 2,433,769 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.

 

Chart pattern: Rectangle bottom continuation pattern from 09/10/2019 to 10/30/2019

Breakout is downward 55% of the time.

Average decline: 14%.

Break-even failure rate: 16%.

Pullbacks occur 69% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 50% of the time.

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Beacon Roofing Supply Inc. (BECN)

Industry: Retail Building Supply

Industry RS rank: 8 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 496 out of 581

10/31/19 close: $31.04

1 Month avg volatility: $0.88. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $29.01 or 6.5% below the close.

Change YTD: -2.14%

Volume: 323,700 shares.
3 month avg: 811,195 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.

 

Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 07/25/2019 to 10/29/2019

WARNING: A dead-cat bounce occurred on 08/07/2019. There is a 26% chance that a 15% or higher decline will occur (or has occurred since then) by 11/06/2019 and a 38% chance by 02/05/2020.

Breakout is upward 54% of the time.

Average rise: 31%.

Break-even failure rate: 9%.

Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Brooks Automation (BRKS)

Industry: Semiconductor Cap Equip.

Industry RS rank: 4 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 132 out of 581

10/31/19 close: $42.47

1 Month avg volatility: $1.21. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $39.71 or 6.5% below the close.

Change YTD: 62.22%

Volume: 467,500 shares.
3 month avg: 945,389 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.

 

Chart pattern: Scallop, ascending continuation pattern from 09/19/2019 to 10/28/2019

Breakout is upward 80% of the time.

Average rise: 31%.

Break-even failure rate: 10%.

Throwbacks occur 58% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 58% of the time.

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Ferro Corp (FOE)

Industry: Chemical (Specialty)

Industry RS rank: 37 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 549 out of 581

10/31/19 close: $11.13

1 Month avg volatility: $0.36. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $10.30 or 7.5% below the close.

Change YTD: -29.02%

Volume: 260,200 shares.
3 month avg: 594,032 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.

 

Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 09/03/2019 to 10/31/2019

Breakout is upward 54% of the time.

Average rise: 31%.

Break-even failure rate: 9%.

Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Goldman Sachs Group, The (GS)

Industry: Securities Brokerage

Industry RS rank: 51 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 251 out of 581

10/31/19 close: $213.38

1 Month avg volatility: $3.82. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $203.68 or 4.6% below the close.

Change YTD: 27.73%

Volume: 1,876,200 shares.
3 month avg: 2,673,269 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Monday.

 

Chart pattern: Rectangle top continuation pattern from 06/28/2019 to 10/31/2019

Breakout is upward 68% of the time.

Average rise: 39%.

Break-even failure rate: 9%.

Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 80% of the time.

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Griffon Corp (GFF)

Industry: Building Materials

Industry RS rank: 7 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 171 out of 581

10/31/19 close: $21.31

1 Month avg volatility: $0.54. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $22.39 or 5.1% above the close.

Change YTD: 103.92%

Volume: 92,900 shares.
3 month avg: 83,558 shares.

This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.

 

Chart pattern: Roof, inverted reversal pattern from 09/17/2019 to 10/31/2019

Breakout is downward 50% of the time.

Average decline: 17%.

Break-even failure rate: 10%.

Pullbacks occur 56% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 73% of the time.

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Incyte Corp. (INCY)

Industry: Drug

Industry RS rank: 26 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 221 out of 581

10/31/19 close: $83.92

1 Month avg volatility: $2.04. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $78.65 or 6.3% below the close.

Change YTD: 31.97%

Volume: 999,100 shares.
3 month avg: 1,771,434 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.

 

Chart pattern: Head-and-shoulders bottom reversal pattern from 09/12/2019 to 10/25/2019

Breakout is upward 100% of the time.

Average rise: 38%.

Break-even failure rate: 3%.

Throwbacks occur 45% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 74% of the time.

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LSB Industries Inc (LXU)

Industry: Building Materials

Industry RS rank: 7 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 531 out of 581

10/31/19 close: $4.23

1 Month avg volatility: $0.27. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $4.99 or 18.1% above the close.

Change YTD: -23.37%

Volume: 104,600 shares.
3 month avg: 278,209 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Thursday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.

 

Chart pattern: Dead-cat bounce continuation pattern from 10/29/2019 to 10/29/2019

Breakout is downward 67% of the time.

Average decline: 18%.

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Martin Marietta Materials, Inc (MLM)

Industry: Cement and Aggregates

Industry RS rank: 5 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 63 out of 581

10/31/19 close: $261.91

1 Month avg volatility: $5.58. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $281.11 or 7.3% above the close.

Change YTD: 52.39%

Volume: 746,500 shares.
3 month avg: 575,872 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.

 

Chart pattern: Broadening top reversal pattern from 10/10/2019 to 10/30/2019

Breakout is downward 50% of the time.

Average decline: 15%.

Break-even failure rate: 18%.

Pullbacks occur 48% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 37% of the time.

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PG and E (PCG)

Industry: Electric Utility (West)

Industry RS rank: 17 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 581 out of 581

10/31/19 close: $6.17

1 Month avg volatility: $0.74. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $7.66 or 24.2% above the close.

Change YTD: -74.02%

Volume: 18,706,200 shares.
3 month avg: 5,870,049 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.

 

Chart pattern: Dead-cat bounce continuation pattern from 10/24/2019 to 10/25/2019

Breakout is downward 67% of the time.

Average decline: 18%.

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Polyone Corp (POL)

Industry: Chemical (Specialty)

Industry RS rank: 37 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 65 out of 581

10/31/19 close: $32.05

1 Month avg volatility: $0.93. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $34.35 or 7.2% above the close.

Change YTD: 12.06%

Volume: 482,900 shares.
3 month avg: 446,563 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.

 

Chart pattern: Diamond top reversal pattern from 10/11/2019 to 10/30/2019

Breakout is downward 69% of the time.

Average decline: 21%.

Break-even failure rate: 6%.

Pullbacks occur 57% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 76% of the time.

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Raytheon Co. (RTN)

Industry: Aerospace/Defense

Industry RS rank: 19 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 61 out of 581

10/31/19 close: $212.21

1 Month avg volatility: $4.25. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $203.43 or 4.1% below the close.

Change YTD: 38.38%

Volume: 1,269,400 shares.
3 month avg: 1,302,565 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.

 

Chart pattern: Scallop, ascending continuation pattern from 09/16/2019 to 10/28/2019

Breakout is upward 80% of the time.

Average rise: 31%.

Break-even failure rate: 10%.

Throwbacks occur 58% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 58% of the time.

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Rogers Corp (ROG)

Industry: Electronics

Industry RS rank: 40 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 532 out of 581

10/31/19 close: $135.48

1 Month avg volatility: $4.86. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $151.47 or 11.8% above the close.

Change YTD: 36.77%

Volume: 429,700 shares.
3 month avg: 155,332 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.

 

Chart pattern: Double Top, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 10/22/2019 to 10/29/2019

Breakout is downward 100% of the time.

Average decline: 19%.

Break-even failure rate: 8%.

Pullbacks occur 61% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 72% of the time.

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Tapestry Inc (TPR)

Industry: Apparel

Industry RS rank: 56 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 494 out of 581

10/31/19 close: $25.86

1 Month avg volatility: $0.71. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $23.85 or 7.8% below the close.

Change YTD: -23.38%

Volume: 5,120,600 shares.
3 month avg: 3,145,718 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.

 

Chart pattern: Rectangle top continuation pattern from 09/11/2019 to 10/31/2019

WARNING: A dead-cat bounce occurred on 08/15/2019. There is a 26% chance that a 15% or higher decline will occur (or has occurred since then) by 11/14/2019 and a 38% chance by 02/13/2020.

Breakout is upward 68% of the time.

Average rise: 39%.

Break-even failure rate: 9%.

Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 80% of the time.

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Teleflex Inc (TFX)

Industry: Diversified Co.

Industry RS rank: 30 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 42 out of 581

10/31/19 close: $347.41

1 Month avg volatility: $7.47. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $318.55 or 8.3% below the close.

Change YTD: 34.40%

Volume: 524,200 shares.
3 month avg: 269,822 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.

 

Chart pattern: Double Bottom, Eve and Eve reversal pattern from 10/10/2019 to 10/25/2019

Breakout is upward 100% of the time.

Average rise: 40%.

Break-even failure rate: 4%.

Throwbacks occur 55% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 67% of the time.

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U.S Silica Holdings Inc (SLCA)

Industry: Metals and Mining (Div.)

Industry RS rank: 32 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 579 out of 581

10/31/19 close: $4.46

1 Month avg volatility: $0.55. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $5.99 or 34.4% above the close.

Change YTD: -56.19%

Volume: 6,060,900 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.

 

Chart pattern: Dead-cat bounce continuation pattern from 10/29/2019 to 10/29/2019

Breakout is downward 67% of the time.

Average decline: 18%.

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United Parcel Service (UPS)

Industry: Air Transport

Industry RS rank: 48 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 160 out of 581

10/31/19 close: $115.17

1 Month avg volatility: $1.87. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $110.78 or 3.8% below the close.

Change YTD: 18.09%

Volume: 2,904,000 shares.
3 month avg: 2,659,363 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.

 

Chart pattern: Diamond bottom reversal pattern from 10/02/2019 to 10/31/2019

Breakout is upward 69% of the time.

Average rise: 36%.

Break-even failure rate: 4%.

Throwbacks occur 53% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 81% of the time.

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