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Market Monday: The Week Ahead….

Blog: May 2020

Bulkowski's Blog: ThePatternSite.com

As of 05/07/2020

  Indus: 23,876 +211.25 +0.9%  

  Trans: 8,051 +118.76 +1.5%  

  Utils: 752 +5.62 +0.8%  

  Nasdaq: 8,980 +125.27 +1.4%  

  S&P 500: 2,881 +32.77 +1.2%  

YTD

-16.3%  

-26.2%  

-14.5%  

 +0.1%  

-10.8%  

  Up arrow26,200 or 22,700 by 05/15/2020
  Down arrow7,600 or 9,000 by 05/15/2020
  Down arrow740 or 880 by 05/15/2020
  Up arrow9,400 or 8,200 by 05/15/2020
  Up arrow3,100 or 2,700 by 05/15/2020

As of 05/07/2020

  Indus: 23,876 +211.25 +0.9%  

  Trans: 8,051 +118.76 +1.5%  

  Utils: 752 +5.62 +0.8%  

  Nasdaq: 8,980 +125.27 +1.4%  

  S&P 500: 2,881 +32.77 +1.2%  

YTD

-16.3%  

-26.2%  

-14.5%  

 +0.1%  

-10.8%  

  Up arrow26,200 or 22,700 by 05/15/2020
  Down arrow7,600 or 9,000 by 05/15/2020
  Down arrow740 or 880 by 05/15/2020
  Up arrow9,400 or 8,200 by 05/15/2020
  Up arrow3,100 or 2,700 by 05/15/2020

 


Friday 5/8/20. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

Go to Table.

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

Click the link for a list of symbols from the table.

The following patterns were found manually, so the results may differ from those found using Patternz.

Mr. Bulkowski has excluded any securities he owns from appearing in the list. However, he may add any of the securities listed to his portfolio at any time, just as you can.

There were 41 patterns found this week (excluding pipe bottoms; pipe tops and bottoms are found looking back 2 weeks) out of 587 stocks searched, or 7.0%. Based on the percentage, the stock market is
trending
since few consolidation patterns appear.

Excluding ETFs, there were 33 bullish chart patterns this week and 4 bearish ones with any remaining (4) being undecided.
The ratio of bullish to bearish patterns suggests the market is bullish.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

More…

— Thomas Bulkowski

 

Symbol Chart Pattern Bullish
Bearish
Start End Industry
AXP Triangle, symmetrical        03/18/2020 05/05/2020 Financial Services
AIG Triangle, symmetrical        03/25/2020 05/07/2020 Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
ARW Pennant        04/30/2020 05/07/2020 Electronics
AGO Triangle, symmetrical        04/09/2020 05/07/2020 Insurance (Life)
BECN Flag, high and tight        03/23/2020 05/07/2020 Retail Building Supply
BIIB Double Bottom, Eve and Adam        04/22/2020 05/01/2020 Biotechnology
BOOT Flag, high and tight        03/18/2020 05/07/2020 Shoe
CLS Flag, high and tight        03/18/2020 05/07/2020 Electronics
CX Triangle, symmetrical        04/03/2020 05/07/2020 Cement and Aggregates
CRL Roof, inverted        04/09/2020 05/06/2020 Biotechnology
CSCO Broadening top, right-angled and ascending        04/07/2020 05/07/2020 Computers and Peripherals
CLNE Flag, high and tight        03/12/2020 05/07/2020 Natural Gas (Distributor)
COP Flag, high and tight        03/18/2020 05/07/2020 Petroleum (Integrated)
DFS Flag, high and tight        03/19/2020 05/07/2020 Financial Services
FIVN Flag, high and tight        03/16/2020 05/07/2020 Computer Software and Svcs
FLIR Flag, high and tight        03/23/2020 05/07/2020 Aerospace/Defense
FTNT Flag, high and tight        03/16/2020 05/07/2020 Computer Software and Svcs
FCX Flag, high and tight        03/19/2020 05/07/2020 Metals and Mining (Div.)
HOLX Flag, high and tight        03/18/2020 05/07/2020 Medical Supplies
DHI Flag, high and tight        03/18/2020 05/07/2020 Homebuilding
HUBG Horn top        04/13/2020 04/27/2020 Trucking/Transp. Leasing
IPAR Triangle, symmetrical        03/26/2020 05/07/2020 Toiletries/Cosmetics
IPI Flag, high and tight        04/02/2020 05/07/2020 Chemical (Diversified)
NVTA Diamond top        04/22/2020 05/07/2020 Medical Services
JBLU Triangle, ascending        04/03/2020 05/07/2020 Air Transport
LRCX Broadening top        04/09/2020 05/01/2020 Semiconductor Cap Equip.
LEN Flag, high and tight        03/18/2020 05/07/2020 Homebuilding
MTSI Flag, high and tight        03/23/2020 05/07/2020 Semiconductor
MTRN Flag, high and tight        03/19/2020 05/07/2020 Metals and Mining (Div.)
MDC Flag, high and tight        03/18/2020 05/07/2020 Homebuilding
MSFT Triangle, ascending        04/17/2020 05/04/2020 Computer Software and Svcs
ASGN Flag, high and tight        03/18/2020 05/07/2020 Human Resources
PETS Flag, high and tight        03/18/2020 05/07/2020 Medical Services
RNG Flag, high and tight        03/17/2020 05/07/2020 Computer Software and Svcs
SLB Triangle, symmetrical        04/01/2020 05/07/2020 Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
STMP Flag, high and tight        03/16/2020 05/07/2020 Internet
TER Broadening top        04/09/2020 05/01/2020 Semiconductor Cap Equip.
TEVA Flag, high and tight        03/18/2020 05/07/2020 Drug
TOL Flag, high and tight        03/18/2020 05/07/2020 Homebuilding
TREX Flag, high and tight        03/19/2020 05/07/2020 Building Materials
VLO Flag, high and tight        03/18/2020 05/07/2020 Petroleum (Integrated)

 

Weekly screen for chart patterns ending between 04/30/2020 and 05/07/2020. Many may be still in development. If no securities appear, then I have not identified any new patterns.

Definitions

RS is relative strength (where 1 is best). For other definitions, see the glossary.

’Breakout is upward/downward 100% of the time’ means price breaks out up/down by definition, not by statistically measuring the rate.

All numbers assume a bull market and are based on the breakout direction that occurs most often.

 

American Express Co (AXP)

Industry: Financial Services

Industry RS rank: 17 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 392 out of 582

5/7/20 close: $86.73

1 Month avg volatility: $3.62. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $77.69 or 10.4% below the close.

Change YTD: -30.33%

Volume: 4,627,400 shares.
3 month avg: 3,419,958 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.

 

Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 03/18/2020 to 05/05/2020

Breakout is upward 54% of the time.

Average rise: 31%.

Break-even failure rate: 9%.

Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

Top

American International Group (AIG)

Industry: Insurance (Prop/Casualty)

Industry RS rank: 51 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 544 out of 582

5/7/20 close: $25.52

1 Month avg volatility: $1.51. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $20.75 or 18.7% below the close.

Change YTD: -50.28%

Volume: 8,239,200 shares.
3 month avg: 5,185,998 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.

 

Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 03/25/2020 to 05/07/2020

WARNING: A dead-cat bounce occurred on 03/12/2020. There is a 26% chance that a 15% or higher decline will occur (or has occurred since then) by 06/11/2020 and a 38% chance by 09/10/2020.

Breakout is upward 54% of the time.

Average rise: 31%.

Break-even failure rate: 9%.

Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

Top

Arrow Electronics (ARW)

Industry: Electronics

Industry RS rank: 29 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 366 out of 582

5/7/20 close: $62.14

1 Month avg volatility: $2.66. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $56.38 or 9.3% below the close.

Change YTD: -26.67%

Volume: 418,000 shares.
3 month avg: 447,163 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.

 

Chart pattern: Pennant continuation pattern from 04/30/2020 to 05/07/2020

Breakout is upward 61% of the time.

Average rise: 25%.

Break-even failure rate: 2%.

Throwbacks occur 47% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 60% of the time.

Top

Assured Guaranty Ltd. (AGO)

Industry: Insurance (Life)

Industry RS rank: 54 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 474 out of 582

5/7/20 close: $29.44

1 Month avg volatility: $1.69. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $25.03 or 15.0% below the close.

Change YTD: -39.94%

Volume: 604,200 shares.
3 month avg: 1,068,715 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.

 

Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 04/09/2020 to 05/07/2020

Breakout is upward 54% of the time.

Average rise: 31%.

Break-even failure rate: 9%.

Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

Top

Beacon Roofing Supply Inc. (BECN)

Industry: Retail Building Supply

Industry RS rank: 19 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 436 out of 582

5/7/20 close: $22.00

1 Month avg volatility: $1.24. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $18.64 or 15.3% below the close.

Change YTD: -31.21%

Volume: 570,000 shares.
3 month avg: 811,195 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.

 

Chart pattern: Flag, high and tight continuation pattern from 03/23/2020 to 05/07/2020

WARNING: A dead-cat bounce occurred on 03/12/2020. There is a 26% chance that a 15% or higher decline will occur (or has occurred since then) by 06/11/2020 and a 38% chance by 09/10/2020.

Breakout is upward 100% of the time.

Average rise: 69%.

Throwbacks occur 54% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 90% of the time.

Top

Biogen Idec (BIIB)

Industry: Biotechnology

Industry RS rank: 3 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 84 out of 582

5/7/20 close: $314.01

1 Month avg volatility: $9.95. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $288.62 or 8.1% below the close.

Change YTD: 5.82%

Volume: 1,763,700 shares.
3 month avg: 1,244,726 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Thursday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.

 

Chart pattern: Double Bottom, Eve and Adam reversal pattern from 04/22/2020 to 05/01/2020

Breakout is upward 100% of the time.

Average rise: 35%.

Break-even failure rate: 4%.

Throwbacks occur 57% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

Top

Boot Barn Holdings Inc (BOOT)

Industry: Shoe

Industry RS rank: 44 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 537 out of 582

5/7/20 close: $18.21

1 Month avg volatility: $1.32. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $15.25 or 16.3% below the close.

Change YTD: -59.11%

Volume: 1,203,200 shares.
3 month avg: 434,749 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Monday.

 

Chart pattern: Flag, high and tight continuation pattern from 03/18/2020 to 05/07/2020

WARNING: A dead-cat bounce occurred on 03/09/2020. There is a 26% chance that a 15% or higher decline will occur (or has occurred since then) by 06/08/2020 and a 38% chance by 09/07/2020.

Breakout is upward 100% of the time.

Average rise: 69%.

Throwbacks occur 54% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 90% of the time.

Top

Celestica Inc (CLS)

Industry: Electronics

Industry RS rank: 29 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 375 out of 582

5/7/20 close: $5.73

1 Month avg volatility: $0.34. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $4.95 or 13.6% below the close.

Change YTD: -30.71%

Volume: 437,800 shares.
3 month avg: 557,234 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.

 

Chart pattern: Flag, high and tight continuation pattern from 03/18/2020 to 05/07/2020

WARNING: A dead-cat bounce occurred on 03/12/2020. There is a 26% chance that a 15% or higher decline will occur (or has occurred since then) by 06/11/2020 and a 38% chance by 09/10/2020.

Breakout is upward 100% of the time.

Average rise: 69%.

Throwbacks occur 54% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 90% of the time.

Top

Cemex SA de CV (CX)

Industry: Cement and Aggregates

Industry RS rank: 50 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 515 out of 582

5/7/20 close: $2.13

1 Month avg volatility: $0.16. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $1.78 or 16.4% below the close.

Change YTD: -43.65%

Volume: 4,393,500 shares.
3 month avg: 9,928,860 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.

 

Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 04/03/2020 to 05/07/2020

Breakout is upward 54% of the time.

Average rise: 31%.

Break-even failure rate: 9%.

Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

Top

Charles River Labs Intl (CRL)

Industry: Biotechnology

Industry RS rank: 3 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 39 out of 582

5/7/20 close: $156.56

1 Month avg volatility: $5.31. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $167.89 or 7.2% above the close.

Change YTD: 2.49%

Volume: 774,600 shares.
3 month avg: 379,248 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.

 

Chart pattern: Roof, inverted reversal pattern from 04/09/2020 to 05/06/2020

Breakout is downward 50% of the time.

Average decline: 17%.

Break-even failure rate: 10%.

Pullbacks occur 56% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 73% of the time.

Top

Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO)

Industry: Computers and Peripherals

Industry RS rank: 13 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 259 out of 582

5/7/20 close: $41.37

1 Month avg volatility: $1.07. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $43.90 or 6.1% above the close.

Change YTD: -13.74%

Volume: 20,133,100 shares.
3 month avg: 19,682,477 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Monday.

 

Chart pattern: Broadening top, right-angled and ascending reversal pattern from 04/07/2020 to 05/07/2020

Breakout is downward 66% of the time.

Average decline: 15%.

Break-even failure rate: 20%.

Pullbacks occur 65% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 32% of the time.

Top

Clean Energy Fuels Corp. (CLNE)

Industry: Natural Gas (Distributor)

Industry RS rank: 43 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 255 out of 582

5/7/20 close: $2.08

1 Month avg volatility: $0.14. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $1.75 or 15.9% below the close.

Change YTD: -11.11%

Volume: 658,500 shares.
3 month avg: 1,021,160 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.

 

Chart pattern: Flag, high and tight continuation pattern from 03/12/2020 to 05/07/2020

WARNING: A dead-cat bounce occurred on 03/12/2020. There is a 26% chance that a 15% or higher decline will occur (or has occurred since then) by 06/11/2020 and a 38% chance by 09/10/2020.

Breakout is upward 100% of the time.

Average rise: 69%.

Throwbacks occur 54% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 90% of the time.

Top

ConocoPhillips (COP)

Industry: Petroleum (Integrated)

Industry RS rank: 53 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 384 out of 582

5/7/20 close: $42.42

1 Month avg volatility: $2.29. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $37.34 or 12.0% below the close.

Change YTD: -34.77%

Volume: 9,520,600 shares.
3 month avg: 6,156,062 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.

 

Chart pattern: Flag, high and tight continuation pattern from 03/18/2020 to 05/07/2020

WARNING: A dead-cat bounce occurred on 03/09/2020. There is a 26% chance that a 15% or higher decline will occur (or has occurred since then) by 06/08/2020 and a 38% chance by 09/07/2020.

Breakout is upward 100% of the time.

Average rise: 69%.

Throwbacks occur 54% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 90% of the time.

Top

Discover Financial Services (DFS)

Industry: Financial Services

Industry RS rank: 17 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 535 out of 582

5/7/20 close: $40.48

1 Month avg volatility: $2.43. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $35.15 or 13.2% below the close.

Change YTD: -52.28%

Volume: 3,993,300 shares.
3 month avg: 2,443,809 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Monday.

 

Chart pattern: Flag, high and tight continuation pattern from 03/19/2020 to 05/07/2020

Breakout is upward 100% of the time.

Average rise: 69%.

Throwbacks occur 54% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 90% of the time.

Top

Five9 Inc (FIVN)

Industry: Computer Software and Svcs

Industry RS rank: 2 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 4 out of 582

5/7/20 close: $103.86

1 Month avg volatility: $4.68. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $92.85 or 10.6% below the close.

Change YTD: 58.37%

Volume: 1,206,600 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.

 

Chart pattern: Flag, high and tight continuation pattern from 03/16/2020 to 05/07/2020

Breakout is upward 100% of the time.

Average rise: 69%.

Throwbacks occur 54% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 90% of the time.

Top

Flir Systems Inc (FLIR)

Industry: Aerospace/Defense

Industry RS rank: 46 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 225 out of 582

5/7/20 close: $47.90

1 Month avg volatility: $2.30. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $40.05 or 16.4% below the close.

Change YTD: -8.01%

Volume: 7,937,700 shares.
3 month avg: 1,165,460 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.

 

Chart pattern: Flag, high and tight continuation pattern from 03/23/2020 to 05/07/2020

WARNING: A dead-cat bounce occurred on 02/27/2020. There is a 26% chance that a 15% or higher decline will occur (or has occurred since then) by 05/28/2020 and a 38% chance by 08/27/2020.

Breakout is upward 100% of the time.

Average rise: 69%.

Throwbacks occur 54% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 90% of the time.

Top

Fortinet Inc (FTNT)

Industry: Computer Software and Svcs

Industry RS rank: 2 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 12 out of 582

5/7/20 close: $135.12

1 Month avg volatility: $4.89. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $110.64 or 18.1% below the close.

Change YTD: 26.56%

Volume: 5,350,600 shares.
3 month avg: 1,532,971 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.

 

Chart pattern: Flag, high and tight continuation pattern from 03/16/2020 to 05/07/2020

Breakout is upward 100% of the time.

Average rise: 69%.

Throwbacks occur 54% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 90% of the time.

Top

Freeport-McMoRan Copper and Gold B (FCX)

Industry: Metals and Mining (Div.)

Industry RS rank: 32 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 274 out of 582

5/7/20 close: $8.97

1 Month avg volatility: $0.44. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $7.91 or 11.8% below the close.

Change YTD: -31.63%

Volume: 18,687,000 shares.
3 month avg: 16,878,592 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Thursday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.

 

Chart pattern: Flag, high and tight continuation pattern from 03/19/2020 to 05/07/2020

Breakout is upward 100% of the time.

Average rise: 69%.

Throwbacks occur 54% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 90% of the time.

Top

Hologic Inc (HOLX)

Industry: Medical Supplies

Industry RS rank: 8 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 81 out of 582

5/7/20 close: $52.94

1 Month avg volatility: $1.75. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $48.70 or 8.0% below the close.

Change YTD: 1.40%

Volume: 2,516,400 shares.
3 month avg: 3,130,522 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.

 

Chart pattern: Flag, high and tight continuation pattern from 03/18/2020 to 05/07/2020

Breakout is upward 100% of the time.

Average rise: 69%.

Throwbacks occur 54% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 90% of the time.

Top

Horton, D.R. Inc. (DHI)

Industry: Homebuilding

Industry RS rank: 47 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 216 out of 582

5/7/20 close: $47.16

1 Month avg volatility: $1.91. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $43.00 or 8.8% below the close.

Change YTD: -10.60%

Volume: 3,991,800 shares.
3 month avg: 4,390,840 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.

 

Chart pattern: Flag, high and tight continuation pattern from 03/18/2020 to 05/07/2020

WARNING: A dead-cat bounce occurred on 03/12/2020. There is a 26% chance that a 15% or higher decline will occur (or has occurred since then) by 06/11/2020 and a 38% chance by 09/10/2020.

Breakout is upward 100% of the time.

Average rise: 69%.

Throwbacks occur 54% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 90% of the time.

Top

Hub Group Inc. (HUBG)

Industry: Trucking/Transp. Leasing

Industry RS rank: 28 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 221 out of 582

5/7/20 close: $44.15

1 Month avg volatility: $2.34. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $49.35 or 11.8% above the close.

Change YTD: -13.92%

Volume: 264,400 shares.
3 month avg: 343,494 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.

 

Chart pattern: Horn top reversal pattern from 04/13/2020 to 04/27/2020

Breakout is downward 100% of the time.

Average decline: 21%.

Break-even failure rate: 7%.

Pullbacks occur 33% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.

Top

Inter Parfums Inc. (IPAR)

Industry: Toiletries/Cosmetics

Industry RS rank: 33 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 510 out of 582

5/7/20 close: $43.53

1 Month avg volatility: $3.07. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $37.18 or 14.6% below the close.

Change YTD: -40.13%

Volume: 131,500 shares.
3 month avg: 72,294 shares.

This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.

 

Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 03/26/2020 to 05/07/2020

Breakout is upward 54% of the time.

Average rise: 31%.

Break-even failure rate: 9%.

Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

Top

Intrepid Potash Inc (IPI)

Industry: Chemical (Diversified)

Industry RS rank: 35 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 565 out of 582

5/7/20 close: $1.03

1 Month avg volatility: $0.09. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $0.81 or 21.2% below the close.

Change YTD: -61.99%

Volume: 868,800 shares.
3 month avg: 1,190,495 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.

 

Chart pattern: Flag, high and tight continuation pattern from 04/02/2020 to 05/07/2020

WARNING: A dead-cat bounce occurred on 03/12/2020. There is a 26% chance that a 15% or higher decline will occur (or has occurred since then) by 06/11/2020 and a 38% chance by 09/10/2020.

Breakout is upward 100% of the time.

Average rise: 69%.

Throwbacks occur 54% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 90% of the time.

Top

Invitae Corp (NVTA)

Industry: Medical Services

Industry RS rank: 10 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 133 out of 582

5/7/20 close: $16.12

1 Month avg volatility: $1.20. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $19.11 or 18.6% above the close.

Change YTD: -0.06%

Volume: 1,930,700 shares.
3 month avg: 321,822 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.

 

Chart pattern: Diamond top reversal pattern from 04/22/2020 to 05/07/2020

WARNING: A dead-cat bounce occurred on 03/12/2020. There is a 26% chance that a 15% or higher decline will occur (or has occurred since then) by 06/11/2020 and a 38% chance by 09/10/2020.

Breakout is downward 69% of the time.

Average decline: 21%.

Break-even failure rate: 6%.

Pullbacks occur 57% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 76% of the time.

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JetBlue Airways Corporation (JBLU)

Industry: Air Transport

Industry RS rank: 52 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 557 out of 582

5/7/20 close: $8.18

1 Month avg volatility: $0.67. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $6.58 or 19.6% below the close.

Change YTD: -56.30%

Volume: 17,729,600 shares.
3 month avg: 6,141,268 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Thursday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.

 

Chart pattern: Triangle, ascending reversal pattern from 04/03/2020 to 05/07/2020

Breakout is upward 70% of the time.

Average rise: 35%.

Break-even failure rate: 13%.

Throwbacks occur 57% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 75% of the time.

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Lam Research Corp (LRCX)

Industry: Semiconductor Cap Equip.

Industry RS rank: 21 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 222 out of 582

5/7/20 close: $247.63

1 Month avg volatility: $12.79. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $279.35 or 12.8% above the close.

Change YTD: -15.31%

Volume: 1,526,700 shares.
3 month avg: 2,565,394 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Thursday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.

 

Chart pattern: Broadening top reversal pattern from 04/09/2020 to 05/01/2020

Breakout is downward 50% of the time.

Average decline: 15%.

Break-even failure rate: 18%.

Pullbacks occur 48% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 37% of the time.

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Lennar Corp. Cl A (LEN)

Industry: Homebuilding

Industry RS rank: 47 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 257 out of 582

5/7/20 close: $50.84

1 Month avg volatility: $2.37. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $45.54 or 10.4% below the close.

Change YTD: -8.87%

Volume: 2,869,200 shares.
3 month avg: 3,465,638 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.

 

Chart pattern: Flag, high and tight continuation pattern from 03/18/2020 to 05/07/2020

Breakout is upward 100% of the time.

Average rise: 69%.

Throwbacks occur 54% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 90% of the time.

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MACOM Technology Solutions Holdings (MTSI)

Industry: Semiconductor

Industry RS rank: 4 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 22 out of 582

5/7/20 close: $30.40

1 Month avg volatility: $1.52. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $26.68 or 12.3% below the close.

Change YTD: 14.29%

Volume: 902,800 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.

 

Chart pattern: Flag, high and tight continuation pattern from 03/23/2020 to 05/07/2020

Breakout is upward 100% of the time.

Average rise: 69%.

Throwbacks occur 54% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 90% of the time.

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Materion Corp (MTRN)

Industry: Metals and Mining (Div.)

Industry RS rank: 32 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 277 out of 582

5/7/20 close: $50.11

1 Month avg volatility: $2.20. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $45.31 or 9.6% below the close.

Change YTD: -15.71%

Volume: 108,300 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Thursday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.

 

Chart pattern: Flag, high and tight continuation pattern from 03/19/2020 to 05/07/2020

Breakout is upward 100% of the time.

Average rise: 69%.

Throwbacks occur 54% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 90% of the time.

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MDC Holdings Inc. (MDC)

Industry: Homebuilding

Industry RS rank: 47 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 396 out of 582

5/7/20 close: $27.39

1 Month avg volatility: $1.65. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $23.61 or 13.8% below the close.

Change YTD: -28.22%

Volume: 710,600 shares.
3 month avg: 498,709 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.

 

Chart pattern: Flag, high and tight continuation pattern from 03/18/2020 to 05/07/2020

WARNING: A dead-cat bounce occurred on 03/12/2020. There is a 26% chance that a 15% or higher decline will occur (or has occurred since then) by 06/11/2020 and a 38% chance by 09/10/2020.

Breakout is upward 100% of the time.

Average rise: 69%.

Throwbacks occur 54% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 90% of the time.

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Microsoft Corp (MSFT)

Industry: Computer Software and Svcs

Industry RS rank: 2 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 29 out of 582

5/7/20 close: $183.60

1 Month avg volatility: $4.38. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $173.83 or 5.3% below the close.

Change YTD: 16.42%

Volume: 28,167,400 shares.
3 month avg: 21,460,729 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.

 

Chart pattern: Triangle, ascending reversal pattern from 04/17/2020 to 05/04/2020

Breakout is upward 70% of the time.

Average rise: 35%.

Break-even failure rate: 13%.

Throwbacks occur 57% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 75% of the time.

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On Assignment, Inc. (ASGN)

Industry: Human Resources

Industry RS rank: 48 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 345 out of 582

5/7/20 close: $52.07

1 Month avg volatility: $2.29. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $47.20 or 9.4% below the close.

Change YTD: -26.63%

Volume: 391,700 shares.
3 month avg: 295,840 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.

 

Chart pattern: Flag, high and tight continuation pattern from 03/18/2020 to 05/07/2020

Breakout is upward 100% of the time.

Average rise: 69%.

Throwbacks occur 54% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 90% of the time.

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PetMed Express Inc. (PETS)

Industry: Medical Services

Industry RS rank: 10 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 6 out of 582

5/7/20 close: $37.55

1 Month avg volatility: $2.12. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $32.91 or 12.4% below the close.

Change YTD: 59.65%

Volume: 460,200 shares.
3 month avg: 739,945 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Thursday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.

 

Chart pattern: Flag, high and tight continuation pattern from 03/18/2020 to 05/07/2020

Breakout is upward 100% of the time.

Average rise: 69%.

Throwbacks occur 54% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 90% of the time.

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RingCentral Inc (RNG)

Industry: Computer Software and Svcs

Industry RS rank: 2 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 8 out of 582

5/7/20 close: $259.70

1 Month avg volatility: $15.28. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $215.45 or 17.0% below the close.

Change YTD: 53.97%

Volume: 2,138,500 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.

 

Chart pattern: Flag, high and tight continuation pattern from 03/17/2020 to 05/07/2020

Breakout is upward 100% of the time.

Average rise: 69%.

Throwbacks occur 54% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 90% of the time.

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Schlumberger Limited (SLB)

Industry: Oilfield Svcs/Equipment

Industry RS rank: 58 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 541 out of 582

5/7/20 close: $16.73

1 Month avg volatility: $1.22. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $13.85 or 17.2% below the close.

Change YTD: -58.38%

Volume: 14,608,500 shares.
3 month avg: 8,320,412 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.

 

Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 04/01/2020 to 05/07/2020

WARNING: A dead-cat bounce occurred on 03/09/2020. There is a 26% chance that a 15% or higher decline will occur (or has occurred since then) by 06/08/2020 and a 38% chance by 09/07/2020.

Breakout is upward 54% of the time.

Average rise: 31%.

Break-even failure rate: 9%.

Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Stamps.com (STMP)

Industry: Internet

Industry RS rank: 9 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 1 out of 582

5/7/20 close: $194.88

1 Month avg volatility: $8.13. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $173.82 or 10.8% below the close.

Change YTD: 133.33%

Volume: 979,800 shares.
3 month avg: 426,580 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Thursday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.

 

Chart pattern: Flag, high and tight continuation pattern from 03/16/2020 to 05/07/2020

Breakout is upward 100% of the time.

Average rise: 69%.

Throwbacks occur 54% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 90% of the time.

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Teradyne Inc. (TER)

Industry: Semiconductor Cap Equip.

Industry RS rank: 21 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 147 out of 582

5/7/20 close: $62.43

1 Month avg volatility: $3.03. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $68.70 or 10.0% above the close.

Change YTD: -8.45%

Volume: 2,370,800 shares.
3 month avg: 2,362,042 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.

 

Chart pattern: Broadening top reversal pattern from 04/09/2020 to 05/01/2020

Breakout is downward 50% of the time.

Average decline: 15%.

Break-even failure rate: 18%.

Pullbacks occur 48% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 37% of the time.

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Teva Pharmaceutical Industries (TEVA)

Industry: Drug

Industry RS rank: 5 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 14 out of 582

5/7/20 close: $11.55

1 Month avg volatility: $0.45. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $10.46 or 9.4% below the close.

Change YTD: 17.86%

Volume: 37,055,600 shares.
3 month avg: 26,334,894 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.

 

Chart pattern: Flag, high and tight continuation pattern from 03/18/2020 to 05/07/2020

WARNING: A dead-cat bounce occurred on 03/09/2020. There is a 26% chance that a 15% or higher decline will occur (or has occurred since then) by 06/08/2020 and a 38% chance by 09/07/2020.

Breakout is upward 100% of the time.

Average rise: 69%.

Throwbacks occur 54% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 90% of the time.

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Toll Brothers (TOL)

Industry: Homebuilding

Industry RS rank: 47 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 448 out of 582

5/7/20 close: $25.85

1 Month avg volatility: $1.50. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $22.39 or 13.4% below the close.

Change YTD: -34.57%

Volume: 2,615,100 shares.
3 month avg: 2,237,614 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.

 

Chart pattern: Flag, high and tight continuation pattern from 03/18/2020 to 05/07/2020

Breakout is upward 100% of the time.

Average rise: 69%.

Throwbacks occur 54% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 90% of the time.

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Trex Company (TREX)

Industry: Building Materials

Industry RS rank: 42 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 36 out of 582

5/7/20 close: $110.33

1 Month avg volatility: $5.80. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $98.62 or 10.6% below the close.

Change YTD: 22.75%

Volume: 859,800 shares.
3 month avg: 245,355 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.

 

Chart pattern: Flag, high and tight continuation pattern from 03/19/2020 to 05/07/2020

Breakout is upward 100% of the time.

Average rise: 69%.

Throwbacks occur 54% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 90% of the time.

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Valero Energy (VLO)

Industry: Petroleum (Integrated)

Industry RS rank: 53 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 473 out of 582

5/7/20 close: $61.26

1 Month avg volatility: $3.77. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $53.31 or 13.0% below the close.

Change YTD: -34.59%

Volume: 4,307,100 shares.
3 month avg: 3,584,486 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.

 

Chart pattern: Flag, high and tight continuation pattern from 03/18/2020 to 05/07/2020

WARNING: A dead-cat bounce occurred on 03/12/2020. There is a 26% chance that a 15% or higher decline will occur (or has occurred since then) by 06/11/2020 and a 38% chance by 09/10/2020.

Breakout is upward 100% of the time.

Average rise: 69%.

Throwbacks occur 54% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 90% of the time.

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Thursday 5/7/20. Intraday Market Direction: Nasdaq

The index climbed by 0.5% or 45.27 points. Since 02/05/1971 the index made 558 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day’s…

     Average gain was 0.9% on 377 occasions.

     Average loss was -0.7% on 181 occasions.

Expect the index to close higher 67.6% of the time.

Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:

     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 188/335 or 56.1% of the time.

     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 56/111 or 50.5% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5 minute scale.

$ $ $

Patternz users! If you use Patternz to update your stock quotes, it may appear to be working (no error messages), but it might not be. That’s because support
for TLS 1.0 and TLS 1.1 was removed on the Internet (not by me) and sites are moving to TLS 1.2. I’ve a new version
which fixes the problem.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5-minute scale.

The index bumped up against overhead resistance shown by the red line and has struggled to pierce it.

However, at the bottom of the drop is a nice looking head-and-shoulders bottom chart pattern. It sent the index higher (that’s not really what happened, but it’s nice to
believe it).

That’s all she wrote. I’m off to fix Patternz now…

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day’s high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences),
the area might act as support or resistance.

— Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2020 ThePatternSite.com    Metric   Value   Diff   Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2   6,697.44      
 Monthly S1   7,775.91   1,078.48   
 Monthly Pivot   8,366.59   590.67   
 Weekly S2   8,402.41   35.82   
 Weekly S1   8,628.40   225.99   
 Daily S2   8,755.12   126.72   
 Weekly Pivot   8,792.83   37.71   
 Daily S1   8,804.76   11.93   
 Low   8,819.37   14.61   
 Close   8,854.39   35.02   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High   8,862.87   8.48   Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Close.
 Daily Pivot   8,869.00   6.13   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 61.8% Down from Intraday High.
 Open   8,874.70   5.70   Yes! The Open is close to the Daily Pivot.
 50% Down from Intraday High   8,876.31   1.61   Yes! The 50% Down from Intraday High is close to the Open.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High   8,889.75   13.44   
 Daily R1   8,918.64   28.89   
 High   8,933.25   14.61   
 Daily R2   8,982.88   49.63   
 Weekly R1   9,018.82   35.94   
 Weekly R2   9,183.25   164.43   
 Monthly R1   9,445.06   261.81   
 Monthly R2   10,035.74   590.67   


Wednesday 5/6/20. Indicators Bearish But…

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

The chart pattern indicator looks like the bearish signal will stay. Why? It can change for up to a week but is usually solid after 3 days. It’s been 6 now, including the weekend.

A big move could still change it, but it would have to be a wicked rise in the markets.

More likely is that a new bullish signal will appear. You can see the thin blue line in the neutral zone (near 50). If it continues rising, it’ll turn green (bullish).
I expect that to happen in the next day or two.

Picture of the percent down indicators

The red line is the percentage of stocks at least 20% below their 1-year high (plotted upside down). The blue line is the average percentage drop of stocks below their 1-year high (plotted upside down).

Shown as a red line on the above chart…

On Tuesday, 69% of stocks in my database are in bear market territory (down at least 20% from their 1-year high).

A week ago, it was 67%.

The fewest was 20% on 01/16/2020.

And the most was 96% on 03/23/2020.

Shown as a blue line on the above chart…

The 481 stocks in my database are down an average of 32% from their yearly high.

A week ago, the average was 31%.

The peak was 11% on 01/16/2020.

And the bottom was 47% on 03/23/2020.

Both lines, even though the chart shows them ticking up today, they are still lower than they were a week ago.

However, the uptrend is still intact. Both red and blue lines started moving up in mid March and are now significantly higher.

I am having second thoughts about the indices tumbling. I do believe we’ll have a second wave of covid-19, maybe even a covid-20 or -21 in the winter. Unemployment claims will continue to rise
at least for a few more weeks, but maybe not. If not, then the markets could really zip higher. Poor earnings will hit this quarter (but haven’t really made a dent so far) and will
make a bigger splash next quarter, but I don’t see that affecting the upward trajectory for more than a few days.

I thought we’d see the indices drop back to the March lows. Now? Maybe not.

— Thomas Bulkowski

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Tuesday 5/5/20. Slider Tutorial: Swing Rule!

The index climbed by 0.1% or 26.07 points. Since 10/01/1928 the index made 1360 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day’s…

     Average gain was 0.6% on 701 occasions.

     Average loss was -0.6% on 659 occasions.

Expect the index to close higher 51.5% of the time.

Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:

     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 202/349 or 57.9% of the time.

     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 39/79 or 49.4% of the time.

$ $ $

I show another slider tutorial featuring the swing rule.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day’s high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences),
the area might act as support or resistance.

— Thomas Bulkowski

Top

© 2020 ThePatternSite.com    Metric   Value   Diff   Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2   19,053.43      
 Monthly S1   21,401.60   2,348.16   
 Weekly S2   22,933.81   1,532.21   
 Monthly Pivot   23,083.18   149.38   
 Daily S2   23,151.76   68.58   
 Weekly S1   23,341.78   190.02   
 Low   23,361.16   19.38   Yes! The Low is close to the Weekly S1.
 Daily S1   23,450.76   89.60   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High   23,555.37   104.61   
 Open   23,581.55   26.18   Yes! The Open is close to the 61.8% Down from Intraday High.
 50% Down from Intraday High   23,615.36   33.81   Yes! The 50% Down from Intraday High is close to the Open.
 Daily Pivot   23,660.16   44.80   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 50% Down from Intraday High.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High   23,675.35   15.19   Yes! The 38.2% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 Close   23,749.76   74.41   
 High   23,869.56   119.80   
 Daily R1   23,959.16   89.60   
 Weekly Pivot   24,053.28   94.12   
 Daily R2   24,168.56   115.28   
 Weekly R1   24,461.25   292.69   
 Weekly R2   25,172.75   711.49   
 Monthly R1   25,431.35   258.60   
 Monthly R2   27,112.93   1,681.59   


Monday 5/4/20. Market Monday: The Week Ahead

My Prediction

Picture of the Dow Industrials on the daily scale.

I show the Dow industrials on the daily scale.

Not shown but the chart pattern indicator flipped to bearish today (even though it claims to have switched bearish two days ago).

It could mean nothing because the signal can disappear for up to a week, but is usually solid after 3 days. I don’t know if the 3-day rule still holds in these turbulent times.

The chart shows a diamond top chart pattern outlined here in the Christmas color of red.

Price broke out upward from the pattern but soon collapsed in what I call a throwback.

This pattern (the throwback) acts like a measured move up when price returns to the corrective phase. After that, it resumes its uptrend. Sorry
for throwing out a bunch of pattern names and perhaps confusing you.

The point to remember is that the majority of the time, price resumes its rise. Will this time be different and will price drop instead?

The word on the street is that it finally got spooked at poor earnings. I’ve been waiting for this for a month. If reports continue to come in that are soft, then the index
will continue lower.

Looking at the chart, it suggests price will drop at least one more day (horizontal green line) and after that, who knows? Pay attention to the news and know that the market looks ahead several months (six, I’m told).

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A Brief Look Back

Picture of a flower from my garden.

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

Monday: Up 358.51 points.

Tuesday: Down 32.23 points.

Wednesday: Up 532.31 points.

Thursday: Down 288.14 points.

Friday: Down 622.03 points.

For the Week…

The Dow industrials were down 51.58 points or 0.2%.

The Nasdaq composite was down 29.57 points or 0.3%.

The S&P 500 index was down 6.03 points or 0.2%.

Year to Date…

Dow Industrials

     19.8% down from the high of 29,568.57 on 02/12/2020.

     30.3% up from the low of 18,213.65 on 03/23/2020.

Nasdaq

     12.5% down from the high of 9,838.37 on 02/19/2020.

     29.8% up from the low of 6,631.42 on 03/23/2020.

S&P 500

     16.6% down from the high of 3,393.52 on 02/19/2020.

     29.1% up from the low of 2,191.86 on 03/23/2020.

Options Expiration

No options expire this week.

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Swing and Position Traders: Chart Pattern Indicator

As of 05/01/2020, the CPI had:

35 bearish patterns,

2 bullish patterns,

200 patterns waiting for breakout.

The CPI signal is 5.4%, which is
bearish (<= 35%).

The chart pattern indicator is bearish
with 2 of 3 half triangles showing (). Additional triangles are a measure
of strength with solid triangles meaning a more reliable signal than half triangles.

Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, “Take a
two-dimensional approach.” He offers these tips.

Index S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2
Dow Industrials (^DJI): Daily   23,354   23,539   23,830   24,015   24,305 
Weekly   22,925   23,324   24,045   24,444   25,164 
Monthly   19,045   21,384   23,074   25,414   27,104 
S&P500 (^GSPC): Daily   2,793   2,812   2,840   2,859   2,888 
Weekly   2,736   2,783   2,869   2,917   3,002 
Monthly   2,237   2,534   2,744   3,041   3,252 
Nasdaq (^IXIC): Daily   8,454   8,530   8,642   8,717   8,830 
Weekly   8,319   8,462   8,710   8,853   9,100 
Monthly   6,614   7,610   8,283   9,279   9,953 
  • Seekinger doesn’t look at the range of S2 to R2 as support and resistance levels. Rather, he considers them oversold (S) and overbought (R) areas.
  • S2 to R2 range of values across daily, weekly, and monthly periods: If two values are close together then they lend more significance to the area.
  • If the market trends on day 1, the odds rise tremendously that the market will be range bound between daily S1 and daily R1 the next day.
  • In a quiet market when traders are waiting for an important earnings announcement or economic report, look for daily R1 and S1 levels to hold and for the market to return to the daily pivot.
  • A move outside of daily R1 or S1 usually does not mean a breakout.
  • The odds suggest that the entire week’s price action will remain between weekly R2 and S2.
  • Avoid going long when the market moves above weekly R2 (it’s overbought) and avoid going short when price moves below weekly S2 (oversold).
  • Consider going short at weekly R1 or long at weekly S1 with a profit objective of the weekly pivot.
  • Consider going long at weekly S2 or short at weekly R2 with a profit objective of weekly S1 or R1, respectively.

Here are the formulas:

Pivot point: P = (H + L + C)/3

First resistance level: R1 = (2 * P) – L

First support level: S1 = (2 * P) – H)

Second resistance level: R2 = P + (R1 – S1)

Second support level: S2 = P – (R1 – S1)

H = high price , L=low price, C=closing price

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Consecutive Price Trends

Index  Consecutive
Closes So Far 
%  Comments 
 Dow industrials (^DJI)  2 weeks down  13.5%   Expect a reversal soon. 
  1 month down  22.0%   Expect a reversal soon. 
 S & P 500 (^GSPC)  2 weeks down  11.5%   Expect a reversal soon. 
  1 month down  22.6%   Expect a reversal soon. 
 Nasdaq composite (^IXIC)  2 weeks down  13.5%   Expect a reversal soon. 
  1 month down  26.6%   The trend may continue. 

How long can an index close higher (or lower) each day? The adjacent table shows how often consecutive up or down closes occur in the indices, based on the most recent trend of closes.

Low percentages suggest the market is overdue to turn (think of it as the likelihood that next week or next month will continue the trend, based on historical performance). Values of 50% mean random, so most percentages will be lower.

The analysis uses data going back 10 years for weekly percentages and 25 years for monthly percentages (or the start of data, whichever is more recent). Any unchanged closing price is interpreted as the end of the string of consecutive up or down closes.

Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season is either underway or should be starting soon. The sessions could be more volatile.

 Found  Chart Pattern Name
20 Flag, high and tight
9 Diamond top
6 Triangle, symmetrical
6 Pipe top
6 Double Bottom, Adam and Adam
4 Big W
3 Double Bottom, Eve and Adam
2 Head-and-shoulders bottom
2 Triple bottom
1 Double Top, Eve and Adam

Large numbers of bullish or bearish chart patterns can signal short- to intermediate-term market trends (many bullish chart patterns can mean an uptrend will continue, for example).
However, please realize that the short-term price trend could have changed since the pattern was discovered (this is especially true of pipe tops or bottoms, which are weekly patterns).

The 10 types of most frequently appearing chart patterns in the stocks, indices, and long-only exchange traded funds I follow during the last month are shown in the adjacent table.

The industries I follow were the best (rank 1) and worst performing.

This Week Last Week
1. Healthcare Information 1. Healthcare Information
2. Medical Services 2. Semiconductor
3. Computer Software and Svcs 3. Computer Software and Svcs
4. Semiconductor 4. Drug
5. Biotechnology 5. Medical Services

— Thomas Bulkowski

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Wednesday 5/1/20. 2020 Market Forecast May Update

Quick note: Brian B. found that the download for Patternz (version 7.22) was downloading the old version (7.21). The link has been fixed now.
That bug was at the top of the web page. If you downloaded Patternz from here (Release Notes section), then you downloaded the correct version.

To check the version of the program, just run it and look at the top of the main form. It should show 7.0.0.22.

$ $ $

Based on sector performance from Fidelity, the best performing sectors for 1-year performance as of 29 April 2020 were…

1. Information technology (+17%),

2. Health care (+13%),

3. Consumer staples (+3%),

4. Utilities (+1%),

5. Communication services (+0%),

6. Consumer discretionary (-1%),

7. Real estate (-5%),

8. Materials (-6%),

9. Industrials (-15%),

10. Financials (-15%),

11. and dead last is energy (-40%).

I rounded off the percentages.

Here’s the updated 2020 forecast for May, presented in slider format.

— Thomas Bulkowski

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