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Market Profile Analysis of S&P Futures – 03.31.17…

Market Profile Value Areas and POC figures for /ESM7 and /NQM7 Futures are posted free every morning HERE. Click on any posts in the list on the left pane to see them in the main window. Don’t click on the ST logo as it will just refresh the page and you’ll get only the topmost post over and over. Click on the title or text.

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I’ve been chatting on Brad’s SquawkBox show a bit more as of late. If you tuned in yesterday afternoon I said quite clearly that odds favored that we would trade lower than yesterday’s settlement in the overnight session and probably gap down. The overnight low (ONL) is at 2356.75, a full 8 points below yesterday’s 4:15pm settlement. If you are at all either impressed, baffled, or realize that you can make a lot more than $1,000 from knowing things like that then do not pass go, do not collect $200, but go straight up to the green and white ad at the top of this blog and click on it. You’ll then send me a gushing email sometime around June thanking me for sending you there and changing how you see the markets.

Value was clearly higher yesterday but with the usual poor structure which is the new normal I believe. The entire distribution looks like a letter “p”. So there was some short covering early and then value developed in a tight range later on. While doing so, there was no excess on the high which is the poor high or “crowding the plate” that I often call it. That’s how I knew that the overnight action would be lower. The lack of excess on the top shows us that there are lots of long term longs trapped in the upper part of the day’s range (especially with the POC up high like it was) who need the market higher in the overnight session. When they don’t get it stops get hit and you get a lower overnight session. All of that being said, understand that while tradeable, this is a short term phenomena and in no way indicates longer term weakness. When poor highs (or lows) start to stack up then you have better odds of a larger counter-move getting underway. This is one data point so we’ll take it for what it is.

Overnight inventory is close to 100% net short and we are opening squarely in the middle of yesterday’s range current trading just a couple ticks above halfback. We are also quite a ways away from the overnight low so this tells me that the move away from the poor high could be ending as prices are floating back towards settlement.

It’s the last day of the quarter so there could be some shenanigans by larger players. Just keep that in mind.

As always, have an awesome day…….
Peter


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