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Market Profile Analysis of S&P Futures – 04.04.18…

Value Areas and POC figures for /ESM8 and /NQM8 Futures are posted free every morning HERE. Click on any posts in the list on the left pane to see them in the main window. Don’t click on the ST logo as it will just refresh the page and you’ll get only the topmost post over and over. Click on the title or text.

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34 point gap down but gap rules DON’T apply. Why? Because we are slated to open inside of yesterday’s range. It’s not a true gap unless we open outside of the prior day’s range.

Overnight inventory is 100% net short and the overnight range has been huge. Futures are already well off of the lows. The opening will be very key today as the market “should” ratchet higher to balance off all these overnight sellers. 2573.50 is the RTH low from yesterday and will be the main early downside reference. Staying above that level early increases the odds of a short covering rally, staying below it lessens those odds. If any upswing should occur, use the usual signposts as targets: VAL, POC, halfback, etc.

On the downside, 2559.50 is the ONL and is the first reference. Note that this ONL is still well above even the 4/2 low at 2552.00. This is important to note because the breach of the overnight low more than likely brings in more sellers who may have poor location as they short against the support of that low.

Although this is not a true gap, one of the gap rules does apply and that is the last one which states that double digit gaps are hard to trade early. That is true whether we are inside or outside of range. Probably even more so when we are inside. Volatility will be elevated as well. If you are not a seasoned futures trader, use caution and size appropriately.

I’m on the SquawkBox for Brad again this morning, come on by…….
-Peter


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