Market Profile Analysis of S&P Futures – 04.24.18…

Value Areas and POC figures for /ESM8 and /NQM8 Futures are posted free every morning HERE. Click on any posts in the list on the left pane to see them in the main window. Don’t click on the ST logo as it will just refresh the page and you’ll get only the topmost post over and over. Click on the title or text.

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Futures up 11.00 as of this writing an trading just inside of yesterday’s RTH range. Remember that only the distance between yesterday’s RTH high and where price is now is considered the true gap, thus as of now we aren’t trading on one. Gap rules don’t apply.

2683.00 is the main upside reference for today being yesterday’s RTH high. A move back inside of it may bring in some overnight long liquidation as overnight inventory is 100% net long.

Scenario One:
The futures never retake the ONH at 2688.50 and trade back inside of yesterday’s range filling whatever tiny gap we open on. Overnight inventory correction takes prices to VAH and then the POC, leaving value unchanged. This will be tricky to trade as prices would be moving back down through yesterday’s range where there was plenty of value (think: width) to the profile.

Scenario Two:
Futures either never enter yesterday’s range or enter and snap back out quickly to the upside and hold above yesterday’s RTH range all day. Value would be expected to develop higher or at least overlapping to up. Go with any pullback buy if futures have cleared the ONH. If they can’t at least do that in this scenario then it’s not very strong and probably will fail at some point.

Scenario Three:
Chop Chop! Futures trade back and forth through the RTH high and remain within the upper part of yesterday’s range, never taking out the ONH and never rotating to VAL either.

GOOGL reported strong numbers last night but the stock is trading down about $7 currently. This could put pressure on the /NQ’s intraday if the stock sells off further and takes some other FAANG with it. Overall, it is feeling like all rallies are being sold currently although for what it’s worth confidence isn’t very high on the sell side either. Keep size light and be nimble.

Have a wonderful day,
peter