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Market Profile Analysis of S&P Futures – 05.24.18…

Value Areas and POC figures for /ESM8 and /NQM8 Futures are posted free every morning HERE. Click on any posts in the list on the left pane to see them in the main window. Don’t click on the ST logo as it will just refresh the page and you’ll get only the topmost post over and over. Click on the title or text.

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Last two sessions almost mirror image of each other as two days ago was short in the hole on the close and yesterday was long in the hole on the close. Both days had closes far from value and POC’s.

Yesterday afternoon’s run up was on the release of the FOMC minutes from the last meeting. As such, I generally see such moves as suspect and they often reverse within a couple of sessions. They don’t have to but they often do so I’m keeping that in mind. The ONH is just one tick above yesterday’s RTH high and is the upside reference at 2733.25.

As of now we are slated to open within balance and overnight inventory is net short but not enough to feel imbalanced at the open. The gap is not true (outside of the RTH range) so it has less import anyways. As a general rule anytime you open within balance (inside of prior day’s range), especially towards the middle of it, the higher odds setups are usually later rather than earlier in the day.

The ONL is just a couple ticks below halfback and as such is not a strong low. Those are mechanical buyers there more than likely. I would expect that a breach of the ONL puts the POC at 2714.75 into play.

The market remains balancing within the 40 point range we’ve been discussing. The longer we balance here, the stronger the odds are that we break upwards. Generally long consolidations don’t fall apart to the downside that often. 2742.24 is the upside reference in the S&P cash index. Thus far this level has been tested twice.

Have a great day,
peter


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