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Nasdaq Higher. Cryptocurrency: Doge…

Blog: September 2021

Bulkowski's Blog: ThePatternSite.com

As of 09/07/2021

  Indus: 35,100 -269.09 -0.8%  

  Trans: 14,649 -102.50 -0.7%  

  Utils: 932 -12.67 -1.3%  

  Nasdaq: 15,374 +10.81 +0.1%  

  S&P 500: 4,520 -15.40 -0.3%  

YTD

 +14.7%  

 +17.1%  

 +7.8%  

 +19.3%  

 +20.3%  

  Up arrow35,800 or 34,500 by 09/15/2021
  Up arrow15,400 or 14,000 by 09/15/2021
  Up arrow975 or 920 by 09/15/2021
  Up arrow15,600 or 14,700 by 09/15/2021
  Up arrow4,650 or 4,400 by 09/15/2021

As of 09/07/2021

  Indus: 35,100 -269.09 -0.8%  

  Trans: 14,649 -102.50 -0.7%  

  Utils: 932 -12.67 -1.3%  

  Nasdaq: 15,374 +10.81 +0.1%  

  S&P 500: 4,520 -15.40 -0.3%  

YTD

 +14.7%  

 +17.1%  

 +7.8%  

 +19.3%  

 +20.3%  

  Up arrow35,800 or 34,500 by 09/15/2021
  Up arrow15,400 or 14,000 by 09/15/2021
  Up arrow975 or 920 by 09/15/2021
  Up arrow15,600 or 14,700 by 09/15/2021
  Up arrow4,650 or 4,400 by 09/15/2021

 


Wednesday 9/8/21. A Look At Indicators

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

The CPI has signaled a bearish turn for the markets, but don’t let it fool you. It could be a fake signal because the indicator can change for up to a week. However, it’s usually stable after
three days.

The drop from near or at 100 to below 36 suggests a radical change in the markets, as if it was waiting to tumble. So maybe this is real, but only time will tell if that’s true.

Picture of the percent down indicators

The red line is the percentage of stocks at least 20% below their 1-year high (plotted upside down). The blue line is the average percentage drop of stocks below their 1-year high (plotted upside down).

Shown as a red line on the above chart…

On Tuesday, 22% of stocks in my database are in bear market territory (down at least 20% from their 1-year high).

A week ago, it was 21%.

The fewest was 8% on 03/15/2021.

And the most was 58% on 09/23/2020.

Shown as a blue line on the above chart…

The 464 stocks in my database are down an average of 13% from their yearly high.

A week ago, the average was 12%.

The peak was 8% on 03/15/2021.

And the bottom was 27% on 09/23/2020.

This week, compared to a week ago, the red and blue lines dipped one percentage point each. That’s not a big move compared to what we’ve seen in the past. Even so, any downward move is bearish.

In fact, if you look at the red line, you’ll see that the late August peak is below the peak in early August, suggesting weakness, too. So maybe today’s decline is more serious than just
a one day’s weakness.

Of course, we’ll find out in the coming days but it’ll pay to be careful here. Remember September is, historically the weakest month of the year.

$ $ $

Here’s a symbol list of 127 chart and candlestick patterns (13 “investment grade” candle patterns) found in today’s securities using my version of Patternz:
ACIW, ADBE, ADTN, ALRM, AA, AEE, ABC, ANIK, ACGL, AWI, ATO, BLL, BBBY, BIIB, EPAY, BRC, BRKS, BBW, CACI, CDNS, CALM, CLS, CF, CHKP, CHD, CNA, ED, CR, CROX, CSGS, CW, XRAY, D, DUK, EMN, EPAM, EFX, RE, FFIV, FEYE, FLS, FDP, GIS, GILD, GL, GPRO, HIG, HE, HP, HSY, HON, ITW, IBP, IIIN, IPAR, KELYA, KLIC, LANC, LEN, RAMP, LMT, MHO, MANH, MAS, MGEE, MCO, MYGN, NBR, NFG, NOV, NFLX, NEU, NKE, OGE, OMC, ASGN, PAYX, PPG, PG, PGR, PEG, RGA, REV, ROST, SEE, SEIC, SIGI, SO, SR, SCS, TPX, TER, RIG, TZOO, UGI, UPS, VC, WU, WWW, ZBRA, FDN, FXL, BOTZ, ICF, EWO, EWK, EEM, EWS, QLD, PPA, QQQ, PHO, IEV, IXN, XAR. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

— Thomas Bulkowski

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Tuesday 9/7/21. Slider Trading Quiz!

The index dropped by -0.2% or -74.73 points. Since 10/01/1928 the index made 1224 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day’s…

     Average gain was 0.6% on 617 occasions.

     Average loss was -0.6% on 607 occasions.

Expect the index to close higher 50.4% of the time.

Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:

     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 229/408 or 56.1% of the time.

     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 42/89 or 47.2% of the time.

$ $ $

I show another slider trading quiz featuring Coherent (COHR).

$ $ $

Here’s a symbol list of 132 chart and candlestick patterns (13 “investment grade” candle patterns) found in today’s securities using my version of Patternz:
ABT, ANF, AKAM, AA, DOX, ANIK, AMAT, ACGL, ASH, AGO, BLL, BSET, BBBY, BKNG, BRC, BRKS, BBW, COG, CACI, CX, CHS, CLF, CMCO, ED, CONN, CSGS, D, BOOM, EMN, EPAM, EQT, FISV, FLS, FMC, FCX, FDP, GNW, GL, HIG, HTLD, HL, HP, HON, IDA, IIIN, IBKR, IVC, JKHY, KBAL, KLAC, LHX, LRCX, LEG, LEN, LNC, RAMP, LMT, MTRN, MGEE, ^IXIC, NEU, JWN, NVDA, OXY, OGE, OMC, ASGN, PKE, PYPL, PFE, PCG, PICO, PFG, PG, PRU, KWR, RGA, RCKY, ROST, SEE, SRE, SO, LUV, SWN, SXI, SCS, TGT, TER, TOL, TSCO, TZOO, UGI, VC, WERN, WU, WDAY, XLNX, FTEC, FDN, QTEC, BOTZ, EWA, EWO, EWZ, EEM, EIS, EWJ, EWW, EZA, EWT, IXN, GLD, VIS. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day’s high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences),
the area might act as support or resistance.

— Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2021 ThePatternSite.com    Metric   Value   Diff   Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2   34,289.24      
 Monthly S1   34,829.16   539.93   
 Weekly S2   35,141.76   312.59   
 Daily S2   35,200.42   58.66   
 Monthly Pivot   35,230.18   29.75   
 Weekly S1   35,255.42   25.25   
 Low   35,269.40   13.98   Yes! The Low is close to the Weekly S1.
 Daily S1   35,284.76   15.36   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High   35,327.96   43.21   
 50% Down from Intraday High   35,346.05   18.09   
 Daily Pivot   35,353.73   7.68   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 50% Down from Intraday High.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High   35,364.14   10.41   Yes! The 38.2% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 Close   35,369.09   4.95   Yes! The Close is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High.
 Weekly Pivot   35,383.07   13.98   Yes! The Weekly Pivot is close to the Close.
 Open   35,401.73   18.66   
 High   35,422.71   20.98   
 Daily R1   35,438.07   15.36   
 Weekly R1   35,496.73   58.67   
 Daily R2   35,507.04   10.31   Yes! The Daily R2 is close to the Weekly R1.
 Weekly R2   35,624.38   117.33   
 Monthly R1   35,770.10   145.73   
 Monthly R2   36,171.12   401.02   


Monday, Labor Day, 9/6/21. Site Support

Picture of my dog

Monday is a trading holiday in the US.

If you wish to support the website, then try one of these options.

  1. Perhaps the best way is come to this site and click on an image of one of my books. You’ll find the images at the bottom of the page. The click will take
    you to
    Amazon.com.
    The link passes a code to them and I receive a small referral fee but only if you buy something while there during the visit. You do NOT need to buy the book. It’s just a vehicle to get you to Amazon
    with the referral code.

    So each time you want to use Amazon.com to buy something, come to this site first. The referral is free (it does not increase the cost of anything you buy), it’s easy to do, and it supports this site.

  2. You can click on an ad. Please don’t click on them just to run up the score. Google frowns on that. If you see something of interest, then click the ad and visit their site.
    Ad sales are where most of the financial support for the site comes from. Some of you may have to turn off your ad blocker to see the ads.
  3.  

  4. Finally, you can donate to the site directly. The home page (and some other pages as well) has a Donate link at the bottom of the page. For a limited time and
    while supplies last, I’ll throw in a free book to those with addresses in the US who donate $100 or more. See the donate page for details.

Thanks! — Tom Bulkowski

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Friday 9/3/21. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

$ $ $

Here’s a symbol list of 144 chart and candlestick patterns (13 “investment grade” candle patterns) found in today’s securities using my version of Patternz:
MMM, ANF, AA, ADS, AEO, ABC, ANIK, ACGL, ASH, AGO, AVA, BSET, BAX, BBBY, BBY, BMRN, EPAY, BRKS, BBW, BLDR, COG, CPB, CLS, CX, CNC, CF, CVX, CHS, CLF, CMCO, CONN, COP, COST, CROX, CW, DHR, DECK, ^DJT, DOV, DTE, BOOM, EFX, EQT, XOM, FAST, FIS, FE, FISV, FMC, FCX, FRD, GNW, GL, GOOGL, GPRO, HIG, HL, HP, HOV, ILMN, IBKR, ISRG, IVC, JKHY, JNJ, KMB, LHX, LZB, LH, LEN, RAMP, L, MTSI, MA, MTRX, MU, NBR, JWN, NWPX, NUS, OXY, ASGN, PFE, PG, PEG, KWR, DGX, RCKY, CRM, SIGI, SMTC, SHW, SWN, SCS, SUM, SRDX, TDC, TER, TXT, TOL, TREX, VFC, V, WAT, WERN, WSM, IHI, FXI, BOTZ, ICF, EWA, EWO, EWZ, EEM, EPP, EWS, EZA, EWD, PBE, PJP, ROBO, IEV, ILF, XLY, XLE, XLV, XLI, XRT, UNG, VHT, VIS, MGK. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

The following patterns were found manually, not using Patternz. Mr. Bulkowski has excluded any securities he owns from appearing in the list. However, he may add any of the securities listed to his portfolio at any time, just as you can.

There were 21 patterns found this week (excluding pipe bottoms; pipe tops and bottoms are found looking back 2 weeks) out of 574 stocks searched, or 3.7%. Based on the percentage, the stock market is
trending
since few consolidation patterns appear.

I found 7 pipe bottom chart patterns, which is neutral. High numbers of pipe bottoms can signal a bullish move (I see many of them just before a bear market ends or during a bear market rally. Often it means the first bottom of a double bottom has formed. Thus, expect a move down to the second bottom).

Excluding ETFs, there were 16 bullish chart patterns this week and 3 bearish ones with any remaining (9) being undecided.
The ratio of bullish to bearish patterns suggests the market is bullish.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

For details about the chart patterns, click here.

— Thomas Bulkowski

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 Symbol  Chart Pattern  Bullish 
 Bearish 
Start End Industry
ADTN Double Top, Adam and Adam        08/09/2021 08/27/2021 Telecom. Equipment
AES Triangle, symmetrical        08/04/2021 08/31/2021 Electric Utility (East)
AA Pipe bottom        08/16/2021 08/23/2021 Aerospace/Defense
ANTM Double Bottom, Eve and Adam        08/13/2021 09/01/2021 Medical Services
ACGL Scallop, ascending and inverted        07/19/2021 09/02/2021 Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
ADP Falling wedge        08/16/2021 09/02/2021 IT Services
BRKS Pipe bottom        08/16/2021 08/23/2021 Semiconductor Cap Equip.
COG Pipe bottom        08/16/2021 08/23/2021 Natural Gas (Diversified)
CHS Horn top        08/09/2021 08/23/2021 Apparel
CIEN Triangle, symmetrical        05/28/2021 09/01/2021 Telecom. Equipment
CMTL Triangle, symmetrical        06/10/2021 09/02/2021 Telecom. Equipment
CONN Pipe bottom        08/16/2021 08/23/2021 Retail (Special Lines)
DVN Broadening bottom        07/29/2021 08/30/2021 Natural Gas (Diversified)
DFS Double Top, Eve and Eve        08/13/2021 08/30/2021 Financial Services
FMC Pipe bottom        08/16/2021 08/23/2021 Chemical (Basic)
GPS Falling wedge        08/04/2021 09/02/2021 Apparel
THG Diamond top        08/12/2021 09/02/2021 Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
HNI Triangle, symmetrical        07/29/2021 09/02/2021 Furn/Home Furnishings
IEX Triangle, symmetrical        07/21/2021 09/02/2021 Machinery
JKHY Diamond top        08/09/2021 08/27/2021 IT Services
LRCX Scallop, descending        08/04/2021 08/30/2021 Semiconductor Cap Equip.
LEN Diamond top        07/30/2021 08/31/2021 Homebuilding
M Pennant        08/25/2021 09/01/2021 Retail Store
MCHX Scallop, ascending        08/12/2021 08/31/2021 Advertising
ASGN Cup with handle        04/29/2021 08/27/2021 Human Resources
PFE Pipe top        08/16/2021 08/23/2021 Drug
KWR Pipe bottom        08/16/2021 08/23/2021 Chemical (Specialty)
SWN Pipe bottom        08/16/2021 08/23/2021 Natural Gas (Diversified)

 

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Thursday 9/2/21. Cryptocurrency DOGE-USD

The Nasdaq climbed by 0.3% or 50.14 points. Since 02/05/1971 the index made 664 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day’s…

     Average gain was 0.7% on 363 occasions.

     Average loss was -0.6% on 301 occasions.

Expect the index to close higher 54.7% of the time.

Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:

     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 225/393 or 57.3% of the time.

     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 58/123 or 47.2% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

$ $ $

Picture of the doge=-usd.

I thought I’d oscillate discussing the Nasdaq with cryptocurrencies each Thursday.

I show a chart of DOGE on the daily scale. The price scale of this chart ranges from a dime to 45 cents. Tiny, in other words. I had to play with the settings of both time and price
to get what I wanted. It’s on a linear scale because the log scale on my chart doesn’t like price below a buck.

AB is a Adam & Eve double bottom. It confirms when the coin closes above blue line C. In this case, the move after that doesn’t meet the measure rule.

By that, I mean the height AC added to C should give a target and it does, but the coin doesn’t reach it.

Line BE outlines a bump-and-run reversal top. The lead-in phase is tight with price climbing near a constant pace. After that, we see the bump take price up to
D. And then down she goes, toward E.

The coin could touch the trendline and bounce upward in a dual bump or it could plunge right through. It might bounce off the line and rise. I don’t know which of these three scenarios
is more likely, but it merits watching. If the BARR top works like it’s supposed to, you’ll see the coin drop below the trendline, perhaps making a large drop. First, though, the coin
has to return to the red trendline.

$ $ $

Here’s a symbol list of 151 chart and candlestick patterns (13 “investment grade” candle patterns) found in today’s securities using my version of Patternz:
DDD, ABT, ANF, AFL, ALRM, ALB, AA, ADS, AMZN, AEL, AMGN, APH, ARCB, ACGL, AGO, AXS, BSET, BZH, BBBY, BIIB, BRKS, BBW, COG, CPB, CLS, CX, CNC, CHKP, CHS, CINF, CAG, COST, CRH, CW, DECK, DFS, BOOM, EMR, EOG, EPAM, EQT, EXPD, EZPW, FICO, FOE, FE, FMC, FTNT, FCX, GPS, GNW, GL, HIG, HL, HP, HON, IIIN, IVC, LH, LANC, LDOS, RAMP, L, MHO, MCO, MUR, MYGN, ^IXIC, NTGR, NEU, JWN, NOC, OXY, ASGN, PAYX, PRFT, PFE, PCG, PFG, PRU, PEG, KWR, RCKY, ROST, SEE, NOW, SHW, SLGN, SWN, TER, TXN, TMO, TJX, UNM, VLO, VRTX, WAT, WSM, ZBRA, IYM, IYC, IHI, DDM, FDN, FXI, BOTZ, ICF, IAT, IYZ, EWA, EWK, EWZ, EWC, EEM, EWQ, EWJ, EWW, EPP, EZA, EWY, EWT, QLD, DBA, PBE, QQQ, ROBO, IEV, IXN, ILF, XLY, XLB, XAR, UNG, VAW. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day’s high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences),
the area might act as support or resistance.

— Thomas Bulkowski

Top

© 2021 ThePatternSite.com    Metric   Value   Diff   Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2   14,237.69      
 Weekly S2   14,709.45   471.76   
 Monthly S1   14,773.53   64.09   
 Monthly Pivot   14,959.01   185.47   
 Weekly S1   15,009.41   50.41   
 Weekly Pivot   15,076.95   67.53   
 Daily S2   15,253.61   176.66   
 Daily S1   15,281.49   27.89   
 Low   15,302.11   20.62   
 Open   15,308.98   6.87   Yes! The Open is close to the Low.
 Close   15,309.38   0.40   Yes! The Close is close to the Open.
 Daily Pivot   15,330.00   20.62   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High   15,331.29   1.29   Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 50% Down from Intraday High   15,340.30   9.01   
 38.2% Down from Intraday High   15,349.32   9.01   
 Daily R1   15,357.88   8.56   
 Weekly R1   15,376.91   19.03   
 High   15,378.50   1.59   Yes! The High is close to the Weekly R1.
 Daily R2   15,406.39   27.89   
 Weekly R2   15,444.45   38.06   
 Monthly R1   15,494.85   50.41   
 Monthly R2   15,680.33   185.47   


Wednesday 9/1/21. 2021 Forecast Update

Here’s the updated 2021 forecast for September, presented in slider format.

Based on sector performance from Fidelity, the best performing sectors for one-year performance as of 31 August 2021 were…
(The numbering is how they ranked a month ago.)

1. Financials (+52%)

2. Communication services (+36%)

5. Materials (+34%)

6. Energy (+34%)

4. Industrials (+33%)

8. Real estate (+31%)

3. Information technology (+29%)

9. Health care (+25%)

7. Consumer discretionary (+17%)

11. Utilities (+16%)

10. Consumer staples (+11%)

The list shuffled from a month ago. Utilities lifted off the bottom. Information technology was in third place but it slipped to seventh.

The folks at two firms polled by Fidelity weigh the sectors in this order. It’s puzzling that the experts think IT will outperform and yet it dropped substantially in one month.

1. Information technology (IT)

2. Health care

3. Consumer discretionary

5. Financials

4. Communication services

6. Industrials

7. Consumer staples

8. Real estate

10. Materials

11. Utilities

9. Energy

Here’s how they rank the industries, but only the top 10 appear. One-year change, as of 8/31. The numbering is how they ranked a month ago but that was based on year-to-date performance.
This list is for one year performance.

1. Real estate management and development (101%)

2. Consumer finance (+91%)

4. Construction and engineering (+75%)

9. Construction materials (66%)

10. Banks (+60%)

5. Building products (59%)

(new). Electronic equipment instruments and components (58%)

3. Auto components (+55%)

6. Personal products (54%)

(new). Capital markets (53%)

$ $ $

Here’s a symbol list of 135 chart and candlestick patterns (13 “investment grade” candle patterns) found in today’s securities using my version of Patternz:
ABT, ANF, AA, AEE, AEO, ABC, AMN, APH, AON, APA, ATR, ASH, AIZ, BSET, BBBY, BERY, BBY, BIG, BIIB, BMRN, BOOT, BRKS, COG, CX, CHKP, CHS, CHD, CLR, CROX, CTS, DOV, BOOM, EIX, WIRE, EPAM, EQT, EL, EXPD, EZPW, FICO, FOE, FIVN, FMC, FORM, FTNT, FCX, IT, GNW, EVRG, HBI, HE, HL, HP, HSY, JBHT, INOV, IBP, ITGR, IVC, LEG, LLY, LNC, RAMP, LOW, MTSI, M, MAN, MCHX, MRK, MLHR, MUR, NEE, NI, JWN, OXY, OMC, ASGN, PAYX, PETS, PFE, PPL, PG, KWR, RMBS, RNG, RCKY, SAIA, SLB, SCHW, SWN, SUM, TECH, TER, TXN, VLO, VMI, V, WMT, WMB, WSM, IHE, EWO, EWK, EWZ, EEM, EWJ, EZA, EWY, EWL, EWT, IXC, IXN, ILF, XLE, XLF, GLD. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

— Thomas Bulkowski

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Trading Quiz Tuesday: Yellow Roadway…

Blog: May 2021 As of 05/06/2021   Indus: 34,549 +318.19 +0.9%     Trans: 15,724 +84.67 +0.5%     Utils: 909 +6.52 +0.7%   ...

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