As of 08/07/2019 Industrials: 26,007 -22.45 -0.1% Transports: 10,150 -22.31 -0.2% Utilities: 817 +3.02 +0.4% Nasdaq: 7,863 +29.56 +0.4% S&P 500: 2,884 +2.21 +0.1% |
YTD +11.5% +10.7% +14.6% +18.5% +15.0% |
24,900 or 27,200 by 08/15/2019
9,700 or 10,800 by 08/15/2019
850 or 790 by 08/15/2019
7,500 or 8,200 by 08/15/2019
2,750 or 3,000 by 08/15/2019
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As of 08/07/2019 Industrials: 26,007 -22.45 -0.1% Transports: 10,150 -22.31 -0.2% Utilities: 817 +3.02 +0.4% Nasdaq: 7,863 +29.56 +0.4% S&P 500: 2,884 +2.21 +0.1% |
YTD +11.5% +10.7% +14.6% +18.5% +15.0% |
24,900 or 27,200 by 08/15/2019
9,700 or 10,800 by 08/15/2019
850 or 790 by 08/15/2019
7,500 or 8,200 by 08/15/2019
2,750 or 3,000 by 08/15/2019
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Thursday 8/8/19. Intraday Nasdaq: Is Bullish Turn Here?
Average gain was 0.7% on 379 occasions.
Average loss was -0.8% on 221 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 63.2% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 168/306 or 54.9% of the time.
The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 52/104 or 50.0% of the time.
Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.
$ $ $
I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5-minute scale.
Price made a dramatic move downward at the open, A.
It rebounded quickly in a type of ABC correction before closing the session at B, just above the red resistance line.
I am tempted to swap Tom’s Targets at page top to bullish, but fear this might be a fake out. The above probabilities say I’m wrong, that the index will climb higher tomorrow (Thursday).
However, the CPI is still down, bearish, with no sign of an upward move. So I’ll hang onto my bearish guns for another day. Hmm. Maybe ‘guns’ is inappropriate, given what’s been happening.
$ $ $
The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day’s high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences),
the area might act as support or resistance.
— Thomas Bulkowski
© 2019 ThePatternSite.com Metric | Value | Diff | Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? |
Daily S2 | 7,636.58 | ||
Monthly S2 | 7,666.08 | 29.49 | |
Weekly S2 | 7,675.65 | 9.57 | Yes! The Weekly S2 is close to the Monthly S2. |
Low | 7,702.42 | 26.77 | |
Open | 7,747.27 | 44.85 | |
Daily S1 | 7,749.71 | 2.44 | Yes! The Daily S1 is close to the Open. |
Monthly S1 | 7,764.45 | 14.75 | Yes! The Monthly S1 is close to the Daily S1. |
Weekly S1 | 7,769.24 | 4.79 | Yes! The Weekly S1 is close to the Monthly S1. |
61.8% Down from Intraday High | 7,770.78 | 1.54 | Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Weekly S1. |
50% Down from Intraday High | 7,791.90 | 21.12 | |
38.2% Down from Intraday High | 7,813.02 | 21.12 | |
Daily Pivot | 7,815.54 | 2.53 | Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High. |
Close | 7,862.83 | 47.29 | |
High | 7,881.38 | 18.55 | |
Daily R1 | 7,928.67 | 47.29 | |
Daily R2 | 7,994.50 | 65.84 | |
Weekly Pivot | 8,047.26 | 52.76 | |
Monthly Pivot | 8,052.05 | 4.79 | Yes! The Monthly Pivot is close to the Weekly Pivot. |
Weekly R1 | 8,140.85 | 88.80 | |
Monthly R1 | 8,150.42 | 9.57 | Yes! The Monthly R1 is close to the Weekly R1. |
Weekly R2 | 8,418.87 | 268.45 | |
Monthly R2 | 8,438.02 | 19.15 |
Wednesday 8/7/19. A Look At Indicators
This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.
The CPI turned red days ago as the vertical red bar on the far right of the chart shows. As I mentioned, the timing of this signal is in question. It occurred later than that shown (probably
on Thursday, not on Tuesday), which is why I don’t recommend using the CPI to trade.
Regardless, the signal change did provide warning and at least one reader of this blog took that warning and avoided the downturn.
The red line is the percentage of stocks at least 20% below their 1-year high (plotted upside down). The blue line is the average percentage drop of stocks below their 1-year high (plotted upside down).
On Tuesday, 43% of stocks in my database are in bear market territory (down at least 20% from their 1-year high).
A week ago, it was 34%.
The fewest was 22% on 08/29/2018.
And the most was 81% on 12/24/2018.
The 489 stocks in my database are down an average of 22% from their yearly high.
A week ago, the average was 18%.
The peak was 12% on 08/29/2018.
And the bottom was 34% on 12/24/2018.
This chart shows how dramatic the sell-off was. The more sensitive red line moved from 34% of stocks (in my database) bearish to 43%, a huge move. The chart shows the result for both lines.
I still feel that these types of sell-offs are momentary setbacks to a bullish market. The drops will be frequent, every time a politician burps, but not lasting. It may mimic the other
dips shown on the chart.
— Thomas Bulkowski
Tuesday 8/6/19. Slider Quiz! Head-and-Shoulders Tops
Average gain was 3.0% on 9 occasions.
Average loss was -1.5% on 13 occasions.
Expect the index to close lower 59.1% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 191/318 or 60.1% of the time.
The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 38/74 or 51.4% of the time.
$ $ $
In case you are wondering what the CPI (chart pattern indicator) says about this latest decline, visit this link. It’s updated
after the close each Friday and it says the CPI has been bearish for days now. It was bullish on Wednesday, though, so there’s some signal changes happening (by that, I mean the bearish signal
looks as if it occurred last Tuesday, but we know that’s not true. Signals can change for up to a week). Again the chart shown is as of last Friday.
$ $ $
I show a another slider quiz featuring the head-and-shoulders tops chart pattern.
$ $ $
The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day’s high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences),
the area might act as support or resistance.
— Thomas Bulkowski
© 2019 ThePatternSite.com Metric | Value | Diff | Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? |
Daily S2 | 25,097.60 | ||
Monthly S2 | 25,305.75 | 208.15 | |
Weekly S2 | 25,383.77 | 78.02 | |
Daily S1 | 25,407.67 | 23.90 | Yes! The Daily S1 is close to the Weekly S2. |
Monthly S1 | 25,511.75 | 104.08 | |
Low | 25,523.38 | 11.63 | Yes! The Low is close to the Monthly S1. |
Weekly S1 | 25,550.76 | 27.38 | Yes! The Weekly S1 is close to the Low. |
Close | 25,717.74 | 166.98 | |
61.8% Down from Intraday High | 25,804.47 | 86.73 | |
Daily Pivot | 25,833.45 | 28.97 | Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 61.8% Down from Intraday High. |
50% Down from Intraday High | 25,891.30 | 57.86 | Yes! The 50% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot. |
38.2% Down from Intraday High | 25,978.13 | 86.83 | |
Daily R1 | 26,143.52 | 165.38 | |
Open | 26,259.23 | 115.71 | |
High | 26,259.23 | 0.00 | Yes! The High is close to the Open. |
Weekly Pivot | 26,416.20 | 156.97 | |
Monthly Pivot | 26,455.21 | 39.01 | Yes! The Monthly Pivot is close to the Weekly Pivot. |
Daily R2 | 26,569.30 | 114.09 | |
Weekly R1 | 26,583.19 | 13.89 | Yes! The Weekly R1 is close to the Daily R2. |
Monthly R1 | 26,661.21 | 78.02 | |
Weekly R2 | 27,448.63 | 787.43 | |
Monthly R2 | 27,604.67 | 156.04 |
Monday 8/5/19. Market Monday: The Week Ahead
My Prediction
I show the Dow industrials on the daily scale.
The big question everyone is asking is how far will the Dow drop?
My guess, and it’s only a guess, is not far.
See that knot of support I show circled? I’m thinking that’s where the index will find support and turn. It might be sooner (probably) or it might be later (doubtful).
I think Trump threatening to raise tariffs on Chinese good is another fake out. He’s left himself enough wiggle room to hold off actually raising the rates. Doing so would begin to
inflict cost on consumers and his re-election chances will diminish the longer his policy stays in place.
But I could be wrong…
A Brief Look Back
The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.
Monday: Up 28.9 points.
Tuesday: Down 23.33 points.
Wednesday: Down 333.75 points.
Thursday: Down 280.85 points.
Friday: Down 98.41 points.
For the Week…
The Dow industrials were down 707.44 points or 2.6%.
The Nasdaq composite was down 326.14 points or 3.9%.
The S&P 500 index was down 93.81 points or 3.1%.
Year to Date…
Dow Industrials
3.3% down from the high of 27,398.68 on 07/16/2019.
17.0% up from the low of 22,638.41 on 01/03/2019.
Nasdaq
4.0% down from the high of 8,339.64 on 07/26/2019.
24.0% up from the low of 6,457.13 on 01/03/2019.
S&P 500
3.2% down from the high of 3,027.98 on 07/26/2019.
20.0% up from the low of 2,443.96 on 01/03/2019.
Options Expiration
No options expire this week.
Swing and Position Traders: Chart Pattern Indicator
As of 08/02/2019, the CPI had:
18 bearish patterns,
3 bullish patterns,
129 patterns waiting for breakout.
The CPI signal is 14.3%, which is
bearish (<= 35%).
The chart pattern indicator is bearish
with 2 of 3 half triangles showing (). Additional triangles are a measure
of strength with solid triangles meaning a more reliable signal than half triangles.
Swing Traders: Pivot Points
The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, “Take a
two-dimensional approach.” He offers these tips.
Index | S2 | S1 | Pivot | R1 | R2 |
Dow Industrials (^DJI): Daily | 26,114 | 26,299 | 26,435 | 26,620 | 26,756 |
Weekly | 25,640 | 26,062 | 26,672 | 27,095 | 27,704 |
Monthly | 25,562 | 26,023 | 26,711 | 27,173 | 27,860 |
S&P500 (^GSPC): Daily | 2,899 | 2,916 | 2,931 | 2,947 | 2,962 |
Weekly | 2,846 | 2,889 | 2,957 | 3,000 | 3,069 |
Monthly | 2,844 | 2,888 | 2,958 | 3,002 | 3,072 |
Nasdaq (^IXIC): Daily | 7,894 | 7,949 | 8,009 | 8,064 | 8,124 |
Weekly | 7,723 | 7,863 | 8,094 | 8,235 | 8,466 |
Monthly | 7,713 | 7,859 | 8,099 | 8,245 | 8,485 |
- Seekinger doesn’t look at the range of S2 to R2 as support and resistance levels. Rather, he considers them oversold (S) and overbought (R) areas.
- S2 to R2 range of values across daily, weekly, and monthly periods: If two values are close together then they lend more significance to the area.
- If the market trends on day 1, the odds rise tremendously that the market will be range bound between daily S1 and daily R1 the next day.
- In a quiet market when traders are waiting for an important earnings announcement or economic report, look for daily R1 and S1 levels to hold and for the market to return to the daily pivot.
- A move outside of daily R1 or S1 usually does not mean a breakout.
- The odds suggest that the entire week’s price action will remain between weekly R2 and S2.
- Avoid going long when the market moves above weekly R2 (it’s overbought) and avoid going short when price moves below weekly S2 (oversold).
- Consider going short at weekly R1 or long at weekly S1 with a profit objective of the weekly pivot.
- Consider going long at weekly S2 or short at weekly R2 with a profit objective of weekly S1 or R1, respectively.
Here are the formulas:
Pivot point: P = (H + L + C)/3
First resistance level: R1 = (2 * P) – L
First support level: S1 = (2 * P) – H)
Second resistance level: R2 = P + (R1 – S1)
Second support level: S2 = P – (R1 – S1)
H = high price , L=low price, C=closing price
Consecutive Price Trends
Index | Consecutive Closes So Far |
% | Comments |
Dow industrials (^DJI) | 1 week down | 27.1% | The trend may continue. |
1 month down | 21.4% | Expect a reversal soon. | |
S & P 500 (^GSPC) | 1 week down | 25.5% | The trend may continue. |
1 month down | 22.1% | Expect a reversal soon. | |
Nasdaq composite (^IXIC) | 1 week down | 26.9% | The trend may continue. |
1 month down | 26.6% | The trend may continue. |
How long can an index close higher (or lower) each day? The adjacent table shows how often consecutive up or down closes occur in the indices, based on the most recent trend of closes.
Low percentages suggest the market is overdue to turn (think of it as the likelihood that next week or next month will continue the trend, based on historical performance). Values of 50% mean random, so most percentages will be lower.
The analysis uses data going back 10 years for weekly percentages and 25 years for monthly percentages (or the start of data, whichever is more recent). Any unchanged closing price is interpreted as the end of the string of consecutive up or down closes.
Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries
Earnings season is either underway or should be starting soon. The sessions could be more volatile.
Found | Chart Pattern Name |
15 | Triangle, symmetrical |
11 | Double Top, Adam and Adam |
9 | Double Top, Eve and Eve |
9 | Triangle, ascending |
9 | Triple top |
6 | Head-and-shoulders top |
5 | Dead-cat bounce |
5 | Double Bottom, Adam and Eve |
5 | Pipe top |
5 | Double Bottom, Adam and Adam |
Large numbers of bullish or bearish chart patterns can signal short- to intermediate-term market trends (many bullish chart patterns can mean an uptrend will continue, for example).
However, please realize that the short-term price trend could have changed since the pattern was discovered (this is especially true of pipe tops or bottoms, which are weekly patterns).
The 10 types of most frequently appearing chart patterns in the stocks, indices, and long-only exchange traded funds I follow during the last month are shown in the adjacent table.
The industries I follow were the best (rank 1) and worst performing.
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— Thomas Bulkowski
Friday 8/2/19. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.
Go to Table.
You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.
Click the link for a list of symbols from the table.
The following patterns were found manually, so the results may differ from those found using Patternz.
There were 29 patterns found this week (excluding pipe bottoms; pipe tops and bottoms are found looking back 2 weeks) out of 591 stocks searched, or 4.9%. Based on the percentage, the stock market is
trending since few consolidation patterns appear.
I found 1 pipe bottom chart patterns, which is neutral. High numbers of pipe bottoms can signal a bullish move (I see many of them just before a bear market ends or during a bear market rally. Often it means the first bottom of a double bottom has formed. Thus, expect a move down to the second bottom).
Excluding ETFs, there were 8 bullish chart patterns this week and 13 bearish ones with any remaining (9) being undecided.
The ratio of bullish to bearish patterns suggests the market is hinting of a coming bearish (down) turn.
In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.
More…
— Thomas Bulkowski
Symbol | Chart Pattern | Bullish Bearish |
Start | End | Industry |
AMD | Double Top, Eve and Eve | 07/16/2019 | 07/26/2019 | Semiconductor | |
AMWD | Rectangle top | 07/01/2019 | 08/01/2019 | Building Materials | |
AMGN | Double Bottom, Adam and Adam | 07/12/2019 | 07/26/2019 | Biotechnology | |
ATR | Double Top, Eve and Eve | 07/01/2019 | 07/29/2019 | Packaging and Container | |
AGO | Broadening top | 07/15/2019 | 08/01/2019 | Insurance (Life) | |
BCPC | Double Top, Adam and Adam | 06/20/2019 | 07/31/2019 | Chemical (Specialty) | |
BG | Triangle, symmetrical | 06/19/2019 | 07/30/2019 | Food Processing | |
CSOD | Double Top, Eve and Eve | 07/15/2019 | 07/26/2019 | E-Commerce | |
GLW | Double Top, Adam and Adam | 07/01/2019 | 07/29/2019 | Telecom. Equipment | |
DO | Double Bottom, Adam and Adam | 07/18/2019 | 07/30/2019 | Oilfield Svcs/Equipment | |
^DJT | Triangle, symmetrical | 07/11/2019 | 07/29/2019 | None | |
EMR | Triple top | 07/01/2019 | 07/30/2019 | Computers and Peripherals | |
EIGI | Double Bottom, Eve and Adam | 07/19/2019 | 08/01/2019 | E-Commerce | |
EL | Double Top, Adam and Adam | 07/19/2019 | 07/30/2019 | Toiletries/Cosmetics | |
ETH | Head-and-shoulders complex top | 06/20/2019 | 07/30/2019 | Furn/Home Furnishings | |
RE | Double Top, Eve and Eve | 07/15/2019 | 07/30/2019 | Insurance (Prop/Casualty) | |
EXPD | Double Top, Adam and Adam | 07/24/2019 | 07/31/2019 | Air Transport | |
FTNT | Pipe top | 07/15/2019 | 07/22/2019 | Computer Software and Svcs | |
IT | Dead-cat bounce | 07/30/2019 | 07/30/2019 | IT Services | |
NSP | Dead-cat bounce | 07/29/2019 | 07/29/2019 | Human Resources | |
LAMR | Double Bottom, Adam and Adam | 07/22/2019 | 07/26/2019 | Advertising | |
LNC | Triple top | 07/16/2019 | 07/29/2019 | Insurance (Life) | |
MYL | Pipe bottom | 07/15/2019 | 07/22/2019 | Drug | |
MYGN | Flag, high and tight | 06/26/2019 | 08/01/2019 | Biotechnology | |
PPG | Rectangle top | 06/11/2019 | 08/01/2019 | Chemical (Diversified) | |
REV | Double Top, Adam and Adam | 07/16/2019 | 07/30/2019 | Toiletries/Cosmetics | |
SEE | Double Top, Eve and Eve | 07/08/2019 | 07/29/2019 | Packaging and Container | |
SSYS | Head-and-shoulders top | 07/01/2019 | 07/26/2019 | Electronics | |
TECH | Triangle, ascending | 06/12/2019 | 08/01/2019 | Biotechnology | |
VLO | Triangle, symmetrical | 07/01/2019 | 08/01/2019 | Petroleum (Integrated) |
Weekly screen for chart patterns ending between 07/25/2019 and 08/01/2019. Many may be still in development. If no securities appear, then I have not identified any new patterns.
Definitions
’Breakout is upward/downward 100% of the time’ means price breaks out up/down by definition, not by statistically measuring the rate.
All numbers assume a bull market and are based on the breakout direction that occurs most often.
Advanced Micro Devices, Inc (AMD)
Industry: Semiconductor
Industry RS rank: 7 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 67 out of 586
8/1/19 close: $29.86
1 Month avg volatility: $1.01. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $33.50 or 12.2% above the close.
Change YTD: 61.76%
Volume: 80,645,200 shares.
3 month avg: 56,512,782 shares.Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Monday.
Chart pattern: Double Top, Eve and Eve reversal pattern from 07/16/2019 to 07/26/2019
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 18%.
Break-even failure rate: 11%.
Pullbacks occur 59% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 73% of the time.
American Woodmark Corp (AMWD)
Industry: Building Materials
Industry RS rank: 16 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 121 out of 586
8/1/19 close: $81.28
1 Month avg volatility: $2.64. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $75.75 or 6.8% below the close.
Change YTD: 45.98%
Volume: 94,500 shares.
3 month avg: 141,992 shares.Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
Chart pattern: Rectangle top continuation pattern from 07/01/2019 to 08/01/2019
Breakout is upward 68% of the time.
Average rise: 39%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 80% of the time.
Amgen Inc. (AMGN)
Industry: Biotechnology
Industry RS rank: 45 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 353 out of 586
8/1/19 close: $186.00
1 Month avg volatility: $3.25. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $177.64 or 4.5% below the close.
Change YTD: -4.45%
Volume: 3,457,900 shares.
3 month avg: 2,770,322 shares.Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Thursday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
Chart pattern: Double Bottom, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 07/12/2019 to 07/26/2019
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 35%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.
AptarGroup Inc (ATR)
Industry: Packaging and Container
Industry RS rank: 14 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 131 out of 586
8/1/19 close: $117.56
1 Month avg volatility: $1.82. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $123.83 or 5.3% above the close.
Change YTD: 24.97%
Volume: 533,000 shares.
3 month avg: 241,254 shares.Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
Chart pattern: Double Top, Eve and Eve reversal pattern from 07/01/2019 to 07/29/2019
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 18%.
Break-even failure rate: 11%.
Pullbacks occur 59% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 73% of the time.
Assured Guaranty Ltd. (AGO)
Industry: Insurance (Life)
Industry RS rank: 48 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 259 out of 586
8/1/19 close: $43.30
1 Month avg volatility: $0.60. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $45.42 or 4.9% above the close.
Change YTD: 13.11%
Volume: 453,700 shares.
3 month avg: 1,068,715 shares.Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
Chart pattern: Broadening top reversal pattern from 07/15/2019 to 08/01/2019
Breakout is downward 50% of the time.
Average decline: 15%.
Break-even failure rate: 18%.
Pullbacks occur 48% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 37% of the time.
Balchem Corp (BCPC)
Industry: Chemical (Specialty)
Industry RS rank: 42 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 230 out of 586
8/1/19 close: $90.71
1 Month avg volatility: $2.51. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $107.60 or 18.6% above the close.
Change YTD: 15.78%
Volume: 203,400 shares.
3 month avg: 82,003 shares.This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Thursday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
Chart pattern: Double Top, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 06/20/2019 to 07/31/2019
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 19%.
Break-even failure rate: 8%.
Pullbacks occur 61% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 72% of the time.
Bunge Ltd (BG)
Industry: Food Processing
Industry RS rank: 20 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 272 out of 586
8/1/19 close: $57.92
1 Month avg volatility: $0.95. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $55.89 or 3.5% below the close.
Change YTD: 8.38%
Volume: 1,750,800 shares.
3 month avg: 1,268,517 shares.Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 06/19/2019 to 07/30/2019
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.
Cornerstone OnDemand Inc (CSOD)
Industry: E-Commerce
Industry RS rank: 18 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 304 out of 586
8/1/19 close: $58.43
1 Month avg volatility: $1.40. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $63.18 or 8.1% above the close.
Change YTD: 15.86%
Volume: 559,300 shares.
3 month avg: 697,858 shares.Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
Chart pattern: Double Top, Eve and Eve reversal pattern from 07/15/2019 to 07/26/2019
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 18%.
Break-even failure rate: 11%.
Pullbacks occur 59% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 73% of the time.
Corning Inc. (GLW)
Industry: Telecom. Equipment
Industry RS rank: 9 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 466 out of 586
8/1/19 close: $29.74
1 Month avg volatility: $0.55. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $31.85 or 7.1% above the close.
Change YTD: -1.56%
Volume: 10,966,300 shares.
3 month avg: 5,449,098 shares.Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
Chart pattern: Double Top, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 07/01/2019 to 07/29/2019
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 19%.
Break-even failure rate: 8%.
Pullbacks occur 61% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 72% of the time.
Diamond Offshore (DO)
Industry: Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
Industry RS rank: 58 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 545 out of 586
8/1/19 close: $8.18
1 Month avg volatility: $0.49. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $6.93 or 15.3% below the close.
Change YTD: -13.35%
Volume: 2,977,600 shares.
3 month avg: 2,441,012 shares.Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Thursday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
Chart pattern: Double Bottom, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 07/18/2019 to 07/30/2019
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 35%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.
DJ 20 Transportation (^DJT)
Industry: None
Industry RS rank is unavailable.
8/1/19 close: $10,433.45
1 Month avg volatility: $155.28. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $10,088.53 or 3.3% below the close.
Change YTD: 13.77%
Volume: 60,281,200 shares.
3 month avg: 44,750,105 shares.Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 07/11/2019 to 07/29/2019
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.
Emerson Electric (EMR)
Industry: Computers and Peripherals
Industry RS rank: 13 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 407 out of 586
8/1/19 close: $62.76
1 Month avg volatility: $1.32. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $67.93 or 8.2% above the close.
Change YTD: 5.04%
Volume: 4,532,200 shares.
3 month avg: 3,509,922 shares.Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
Chart pattern: Triple top reversal pattern from 07/01/2019 to 07/30/2019
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 19%.
Break-even failure rate: 10%.
Pullbacks occur 61% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 40% of the time.
Endurance International Group Holdings (EIGI)
Industry: E-Commerce
Industry RS rank: 18 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 565 out of 586
8/1/19 close: $5.29
1 Month avg volatility: $0.27. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $3.58 or 32.3% below the close.
Change YTD: -20.45%
Volume: 618,700 shares.
3 month avg: 656,929 shares.Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
Chart pattern: Double Bottom, Eve and Adam reversal pattern from 07/19/2019 to 08/01/2019
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 35%.
Break-even failure rate: 4%.
Throwbacks occur 57% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.
Estee Lauder, Cos (EL)
Industry: Toiletries/Cosmetics
Industry RS rank: 19 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 37 out of 586
8/1/19 close: $182.76
1 Month avg volatility: $2.91. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $192.95 or 5.6% above the close.
Change YTD: 40.48%
Volume: 1,740,800 shares.
3 month avg: 1,843,415 shares.Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
Chart pattern: Double Top, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 07/19/2019 to 07/30/2019
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 19%.
Break-even failure rate: 8%.
Pullbacks occur 61% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 72% of the time.
Ethan Allen Interiors Inc (ETH)
Industry: Furn/Home Furnishings
Industry RS rank: 27 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 342 out of 586
8/1/19 close: $18.39
1 Month avg volatility: $0.53. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $21.61 or 17.5% above the close.
Change YTD: 4.55%
Volume: 864,900 shares.
3 month avg: 320,755 shares.Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Thursday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
Chart pattern: Head-and-shoulders complex top reversal pattern from 06/20/2019 to 07/30/2019
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 23%.
Break-even failure rate: 4%.
Pullbacks occur 67% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 53% of the time.
Everest Re Group Ltd (RE)
Industry: Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
Industry RS rank: 8 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 219 out of 586
8/1/19 close: $244.33
1 Month avg volatility: $3.96. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $255.80 or 4.7% above the close.
Change YTD: 12.20%
Volume: 298,700 shares.
3 month avg: 566,686 shares.Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
Chart pattern: Double Top, Eve and Eve reversal pattern from 07/15/2019 to 07/30/2019
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 18%.
Break-even failure rate: 11%.
Pullbacks occur 59% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 73% of the time.
Expeditors International of Washington (EXPD)
Industry: Air Transport
Industry RS rank: 49 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 285 out of 586
8/1/19 close: $73.32
1 Month avg volatility: $1.44. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $79.05 or 7.8% above the close.
Change YTD: 7.68%
Volume: 1,297,500 shares.
3 month avg: 1,055,643 shares.Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
Chart pattern: Double Top, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 07/24/2019 to 07/31/2019
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 19%.
Break-even failure rate: 8%.
Pullbacks occur 61% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 72% of the time.
Fortinet Inc (FTNT)
Industry: Computer Software and Svcs
Industry RS rank: 6 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 292 out of 586
8/1/19 close: $79.02
1 Month avg volatility: $1.87. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $85.15 or 7.8% above the close.
Change YTD: 12.20%
Volume: 1,811,100 shares.
3 month avg: 1,532,971 shares.Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
Chart pattern: Pipe top reversal pattern from 07/15/2019 to 07/22/2019
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 20%.
Break-even failure rate: 11%.
Pullbacks occur 41% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.
Gartner Inc (IT)
Industry: IT Services
Industry RS rank: 1 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 328 out of 586
8/1/19 close: $137.41
1 Month avg volatility: $2.97. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $146.29 or 6.5% above the close.
Change YTD: 7.49%
Volume: 790,800 shares.
3 month avg: 564,655 shares.Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Thursday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Monday.
Chart pattern: Dead-cat bounce continuation pattern from 07/30/2019 to 07/30/2019
Breakout is downward 67% of the time.
Average decline: 18%.
Insperity (NSP)
Industry: Human Resources
Industry RS rank: 50 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 362 out of 586
8/1/19 close: $105.45
1 Month avg volatility: $3.57. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $115.28 or 9.3% above the close.
Change YTD: 12.95%
Volume: 680,100 shares.
3 month avg: 131,942 shares.Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
Chart pattern: Dead-cat bounce continuation pattern from 07/29/2019 to 07/29/2019
Breakout is downward 67% of the time.
Average decline: 18%.
Lamar Advertising (LAMR)
Industry: Advertising
Industry RS rank: 35 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 252 out of 586
8/1/19 close: $79.81
1 Month avg volatility: $1.20. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $77.18 or 3.3% below the close.
Change YTD: 15.37%
Volume: 370,000 shares.
3 month avg: 612,354 shares.Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
Chart pattern: Double Bottom, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 07/22/2019 to 07/26/2019
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 35%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.
Lincoln National Corp (LNC)
Industry: Insurance (Life)
Industry RS rank: 48 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 322 out of 586
8/1/19 close: $59.82
1 Month avg volatility: $1.30. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $67.70 or 13.2% above the close.
Change YTD: 16.59%
Volume: 3,391,900 shares.
3 month avg: 1,171,931 shares.Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
Chart pattern: Triple top reversal pattern from 07/16/2019 to 07/29/2019
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 19%.
Break-even failure rate: 10%.
Pullbacks occur 61% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 40% of the time.
Mylan Laboratories Inc. (MYL)
Industry: Drug
Industry RS rank: 44 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 563 out of 586
8/1/19 close: $20.32
1 Month avg volatility: $0.67. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $18.71 or 7.9% below the close.
Change YTD: -25.84%
Volume: 10,829,700 shares.
3 month avg: 6,554,668 shares.Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 07/15/2019 to 07/22/2019
WARNING: A dead-cat bounce occurred on 05/07/2019. There is a 26% chance that a 15% or higher decline will occur (or has occurred since then) by 08/06/2019 and a 38% chance by 11/05/2019.
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.
Myriad Genetics Inc (MYGN)
Industry: Biotechnology
Industry RS rank: 45 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 6 out of 586
8/1/19 close: $45.01
1 Month avg volatility: $1.80. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $25.32 or 43.7% below the close.
Change YTD: 54.83%
Volume: 10,905,800 shares.
3 month avg: 906,888 shares.Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
Chart pattern: Flag, high and tight continuation pattern from 06/26/2019 to 08/01/2019
WARNING: A dead-cat bounce occurred on 05/08/2019. There is a 26% chance that a 15% or higher decline will occur (or has occurred since then) by 08/07/2019 and a 38% chance by 11/06/2019.
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 69%.
Throwbacks occur 54% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 90% of the time.
PPG Industries Inc (PPG)
Industry: Chemical (Diversified)
Industry RS rank: 32 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 236 out of 586
8/1/19 close: $115.67
1 Month avg volatility: $1.83. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $111.34 or 3.8% below the close.
Change YTD: 13.15%
Volume: 1,094,500 shares.
3 month avg: 1,342,054 shares.Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
Chart pattern: Rectangle top continuation pattern from 06/11/2019 to 08/01/2019
Breakout is upward 68% of the time.
Average rise: 39%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 80% of the time.
Revlon Inc (REV)
Industry: Toiletries/Cosmetics
Industry RS rank: 19 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 538 out of 586
8/1/19 close: $18.94
1 Month avg volatility: $0.75. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $21.52 or 13.6% above the close.
Change YTD: -24.81%
Volume: 100,900 shares.
3 month avg: 238,602 shares.Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
Chart pattern: Double Top, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 07/16/2019 to 07/30/2019
WARNING: A dead-cat bounce occurred on 03/14/2019. There is a 38% chance that a 15% or higher decline will occur (or has occurred since then) by 09/12/2019.
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 19%.
Break-even failure rate: 8%.
Pullbacks occur 61% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 72% of the time.
Sealed Air Corp (SEE)
Industry: Packaging and Container
Industry RS rank: 14 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 290 out of 586
8/1/19 close: $41.15
1 Month avg volatility: $0.77. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $43.47 or 5.6% above the close.
Change YTD: 18.11%
Volume: 1,432,900 shares.
3 month avg: 2,419,223 shares.Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
Chart pattern: Double Top, Eve and Eve reversal pattern from 07/08/2019 to 07/29/2019
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 18%.
Break-even failure rate: 11%.
Pullbacks occur 59% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 73% of the time.
Stratasys Ltd (SSYS)
Industry: Electronics
Industry RS rank: 37 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 296 out of 586
8/1/19 close: $25.73
1 Month avg volatility: $1.14. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $30.08 or 16.9% above the close.
Change YTD: 42.87%
Volume: 1,580,900 shares.
3 month avg: 835,520 shares.Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
Chart pattern: Head-and-shoulders top reversal pattern from 07/01/2019 to 07/26/2019
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 22%.
Break-even failure rate: 4%.
Pullbacks occur 50% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 55% of the time.
Techne Corporation (TECH)
Industry: Biotechnology
Industry RS rank: 45 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 90 out of 586
8/1/19 close: $210.98
1 Month avg volatility: $3.93. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $201.35 or 4.6% below the close.
Change YTD: 45.78%
Volume: 184,400 shares.
3 month avg: 150,611 shares.Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Monday.
Chart pattern: Triangle, ascending reversal pattern from 06/12/2019 to 08/01/2019
Breakout is upward 70% of the time.
Average rise: 35%.
Break-even failure rate: 13%.
Throwbacks occur 57% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 75% of the time.
Valero Energy (VLO)
Industry: Petroleum (Integrated)
Industry RS rank: 53 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 346 out of 586
8/1/19 close: $84.34
1 Month avg volatility: $1.88. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $79.90 or 5.3% below the close.
Change YTD: 12.50%
Volume: 4,233,900 shares.
3 month avg: 3,584,486 shares.Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 07/01/2019 to 08/01/2019
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.
Thursday 8/1/19. Intraday Market Direction: Nasdaq
Average gain was 0.9% on 50 occasions.
Average loss was -1.3% on 68 occasions.
Expect the index to close lower 57.6% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 168/306 or 54.9% of the time.
The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 51/103 or 49.5% of the time.
Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.
$ $ $
I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5-minute scale.
The index made a nice plunge late in the trading session, coincidentally at or near the FED announcement to lower interest rates by a quarter point.
I had forgotten about that. The index didn’t like what they heard, not so much about the rate cut, but from the silence about future rates cuts.
Nevertheless, the index recovered somewhat by sessions end and yet it drifted lower in the closing minutes.
I’m thinking that momentum will carry the index lower in the morning’s session but they recover. But the above prediction says it’ll close lower. That could be. Maybe the recovery will
start next week.
$ $ $
The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day’s high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences),
the area might act as support or resistance.
— Thomas Bulkowski
© 2019 ThePatternSite.com Metric | Value | Diff | Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? |
Monthly S2 | 7,670.58 | ||
Monthly S1 | 7,922.50 | 251.92 | |
Daily S2 | 8,004.95 | 82.45 | |
Weekly S2 | 8,060.43 | 55.49 | |
Daily S1 | 8,089.68 | 29.25 | |
Low | 8,110.02 | 20.34 | |
Weekly S1 | 8,117.43 | 7.41 | Yes! The Weekly S1 is close to the Low. |
Monthly Pivot | 8,131.07 | 13.64 | Yes! The Monthly Pivot is close to the Weekly S1. |
Close | 8,174.42 | 43.35 | |
61.8% Down from Intraday High | 8,182.53 | 8.11 | Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Close. |
Daily Pivot | 8,194.76 | 12.23 | Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 61.8% Down from Intraday High. |
50% Down from Intraday High | 8,204.92 | 10.17 | Yes! The 50% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot. |
38.2% Down from Intraday High | 8,227.32 | 22.40 | |
Weekly Pivot | 8,228.53 | 1.21 | Yes! The Weekly Pivot is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High. |
Daily R1 | 8,279.49 | 50.96 | |
Weekly R1 | 8,285.53 | 6.03 | Yes! The Weekly R1 is close to the Daily R1. |
Open | 8,290.78 | 5.25 | Yes! The Open is close to the Weekly R1. |
High | 8,299.83 | 9.05 | Yes! The High is close to the Open. |
Monthly R1 | 8,382.99 | 83.16 | |
Daily R2 | 8,384.57 | 1.58 | Yes! The Daily R2 is close to the Monthly R1. |
Weekly R2 | 8,396.63 | 12.07 | Yes! The Weekly R2 is close to the Daily R2. |
Monthly R2 | 8,591.56 | 194.93 |
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