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Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend!…

Blog: July 2021

Bulkowski's Blog: ThePatternSite.com

As of 07/06/2021

  Indus: 34,577 -208.98 -0.6%  

  Trans: 14,885 -151.24 -1.0%  

  Utils: 890 +3.90 +0.4%  

  Nasdaq: 14,664 +24.31 +0.2%  

  S&P 500: 4,344 -8.80 -0.2%  

YTD

 +13.0%  

 +19.0%  

 +2.9%  

 +13.8%  

 +15.6%  

  Up arrow35,500 or 33,000 by 07/15/2021
  Up arrow15,800 or 14,000 by 07/15/2021
  Up arrow915 or 855 by 07/15/2021
  Up arrow14,800 or 14,000 by 07/15/2021
  Up arrow4,400 or 4,150 by 07/15/2021

As of 07/06/2021

  Indus: 34,577 -208.98 -0.6%  

  Trans: 14,885 -151.24 -1.0%  

  Utils: 890 +3.90 +0.4%  

  Nasdaq: 14,664 +24.31 +0.2%  

  S&P 500: 4,344 -8.80 -0.2%  

YTD

 +13.0%  

 +19.0%  

 +2.9%  

 +13.8%  

 +15.6%  

  Up arrow35,500 or 33,000 by 07/15/2021
  Up arrow15,800 or 14,000 by 07/15/2021
  Up arrow915 or 855 by 07/15/2021
  Up arrow14,800 or 14,000 by 07/15/2021
  Up arrow4,400 or 4,150 by 07/15/2021

 


Wednesday 7/7/21. A Look At Indicators

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

The red bar is baaack! The CPI chart shows it as a bearish signal. It appeared today, despite what looks like Friday on the chart. That’s because signals can change for up to a week.

Today’s move was large enough to cause NR7s sitting on the sidelines to flip bearish, and they flipped enough of those from Friday’s action to cause a bearish breakout in those as well.
Hence the bearish signal.

Notice how the thin blue line near the bottom of the chart swung down after the green bar in late June. The market has been losing upward momentum for the last two weeks…

Picture of the percent down indicators

The red line is the percentage of stocks at least 20% below their 1-year high (plotted upside down). The blue line is the average percentage drop of stocks below their 1-year high (plotted upside down).

Shown as a red line on the above chart…

On Tuesday, 16% of stocks in my database are in bear market territory (down at least 20% from their 1-year high).

A week ago, it was 14%.

The fewest was 8% on 03/15/2021.

And the most was 61% on 07/09/2020.

Shown as a blue line on the above chart…

The 466 stocks in my database are down an average of 12% from their yearly high.

A week ago, the average was 11%.

The peak was 8% on 03/15/2021.

And the bottom was 27% on 07/09/2020.

As the chart shows, both lines took a big dip today, but when compared to a week ago, the damage is far less severe (but still worse today).

Look at the slope of the two lines. They are heading lower and have been since peaking in March. Market support is weakening and that’s not good.

$ $ $

Here’s a symbol list of 129 chart and candlestick patterns (13 “investment grade” candle patterns) found in today’s securities using my version of Patternz:
AXDX, ACN, AYI, APD, AIG, APH, ANIK, AAPL, BCPC, BSET, BAX, BERY, BLDR, CAL, CLS, CHKP, CGNX, CL, CONN, COP, CRH, DHR, DECK, DRQ, EXP, EBAY, EOG, EL, EXPD, FICO, FOE, FDP, IT, GD, GNW, GL, HSC, HSII, HELE, HOLX, HD, IBP, IIIN, INTC, JKHY, LB, LH, L, MHO, M, MAS, MTRN, MDC, MDT, NFG, NOV, NCR, NFLX, NXGN, OGE, PKE, PYPL, PRFT, PETS, PLXS, PPL, PRU, QCOM, RGS, REV, RLI, RCKY, RES, SAIA, SCHW, SAIC, SMG, SEE, SEIC, SIGI, SCCO, TPX, TSCO, RIG, TZOO, TG, UGI, VRTX, WAT, WU, WEX, WMB, WWW, IYM, IEO, FXI, IYZ, SLV, IYF, EWA, EWZ, EEM, EWG, EWI, EWJ, EWW, EWP, EWU, PPA, IEV, ILF, MXI, XLY, XLF. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

— Thomas Bulkowski

Top


Tuesday 7/6/21. Slider Trading Quiz! Alaska Air (2)

The index climbed by 0.4% or 152.82 points. Since 10/01/1928 the index made 1116 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day’s…

     Average gain was 0.6% on 592 occasions.

     Average loss was -0.6% on 524 occasions.

Expect the index to close higher 53.0% of the time.

Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:

     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 227/401 or 56.6% of the time.

     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 42/87 or 48.3% of the time.

$ $ $

I show another slider trading quiz featuring Alaska Air: ALK 2.

$ $ $

Here’s a symbol list of 48 chart and candlestick patterns (13 “investment grade” candle patterns) found in today’s securities using my version of Patternz:
ALB, AA, ALL, ANIK, AON, AMAT, ARCB, ACGL, BBBY, BBY, COG, CAL, CX, CENX, GLW, CREE, CCRN, EQT, RE, FLEX, FCX, GS, HSII, HP, KMT, KFRC, KSS, LRCX, LNC, M, MAN, MRO, MDCA, MU, NEU, JWN, PFG, SMTC, SCCO, SWN, SCS, TDC, TSCO, VMI, VRTX, IAI, DDM, IAT. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day’s high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences),
the area might act as support or resistance.

— Thomas Bulkowski

Top

© 2021 ThePatternSite.com    Metric   Value   Diff   Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2   32,725.14      
 Monthly S1   33,755.75   1,030.60   
 Weekly S2   33,962.34   206.59   
 Monthly Pivot   34,302.54   340.20   
 Weekly S1   34,374.34   71.81   
 Daily S2   34,532.15   157.80   
 Weekly Pivot   34,598.14   65.99   
 Low   34,613.49   15.35   Yes! The Low is close to the Weekly Pivot.
 Open   34,642.42   28.93   
 Daily S1   34,659.25   16.83   Yes! The Daily S1 is close to the Open.
 61.8% Down from Intraday High   34,693.11   33.86   
 50% Down from Intraday High   34,717.71   24.60   
 Daily Pivot   34,740.59   22.88   
 38.2% Down from Intraday High   34,742.30   1.71   Yes! The 38.2% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 Close   34,786.35   44.05   
 High   34,821.93   35.58   
 Daily R1   34,867.69   45.76   
 Daily R2   34,949.03   81.34   
 Weekly R1   35,010.14   61.11   
 Weekly R2   35,233.94   223.79   
 Monthly R1   35,333.14   99.20   
 Monthly R2   35,879.92   546.79   


Monday 7/5/21. Feeding ThePatternSite.

Picture of my dog

Today (Monday) is a trading holiday in the US.

If you wish to support the website, then try one of these options.

  1. Perhaps the best way is come to this site and click on an image of one of my books. You’ll find the images at the bottom of the page. The click will take
    you to
    Amazon.com.
    The link passes a code to them and I receive a small referral fee but only if you buy something while there during the visit. You do NOT need to buy the book. It’s just a vehicle to get you to Amazon
    with the referral code.

    So each time you want to use Amazon.com to buy something, come to this site first. The referral is free (it does not increase the cost of anything you buy), it’s easy to do, and it supports this site.

  2. You can click on an ad. Please don’t click on them just to run up the score. Google frowns on that. If you see something of interest, then click the ad and visit their site.
    Ad sales are where most of the financial support for the site comes from. Some of you may have to turn off your ad blocker to see the ads.
  3.  

  4. Finally, you can donate to the site directly. The home page (and some other pages as well) has a Donate link at the bottom of the page. For a limited time and
    while supplies last, I’ll throw in a free book to those with addresses in the US who donate $100 or more. See the donate page for details.

Thanks! — Tom Bulkowski

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Friday 7/2/21. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

$ $ $

Here’s a symbol list of 160 chart and candlestick patterns (13 “investment grade” candle patterns) found in today’s securities using my version of Patternz:
ABT, AXDX, ADBE, AEIS, AFL, ALB, AA, ALL, AMGN, AMN, ANIK, AON, AMAT, ARCB, ACGL, AGO, AVY, AVNT, BCPC, BLL, BSET, BBBY, BBY, BBW, BG, CBT, COG, CAL, CPB, CE, CX, CENX, CRL, CHD, CTSH, CMCO, GLW, CREE, CCRN, CTS, DHR, DECK, D, DTE, EMN, EBAY, EMR, EQT, RE, FB, FLEX, FCX, FDP, GE, GILD, GS, GPRO, GES, HSC, HSII, HELE, HP, HNI, HON, IEX, IDXX, INOV, IIIN, TILE, IPG, ISRG, IVC, KMT, KFRC, KBAL, KSS, KLIC, LB, LRCX, LLY, LNC, MTSI, M, MAN, MRO, MCHX, MRTN, MTRN, MDCA, MU, ^IXIC, NTGR, NEU, NKE, JWN, PKE, PAYX, PRFT, PPG, PFG, KWR, REV, RNG, ROK, SMTC, NOW, SCCO, SWN, SCS, SSYS, TDC, TSCO, RIG, TZOO, SLCA, VMI, VRTX, WDAY, IAI, IYK, IYC, IHI, IHE, DDM, FXI, BOTZ, IYH, IHF, IAT, SOXX, IGE, EWK, EWZ, EEM, EWJ, EWM, THD, PJP, ILF, SSO, XLI, SPY, USO, MGK. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

The following patterns were found manually, not using Patternz. Mr. Bulkowski has excluded any securities he owns from appearing in the list. However, he may add any of the securities listed to his portfolio at any time, just as you can.

There were 22 patterns found this week (excluding pipe bottoms; pipe tops and bottoms are found looking back 2 weeks) out of 574 stocks searched, or 3.8%. Based on the percentage, the stock market is
trending
since few consolidation patterns appear.

I found 10 pipe bottom chart patterns, which is neutral. High numbers of pipe bottoms can signal a bullish move (I see many of them just before a bear market ends or during a bear market rally. Often it means the first bottom of a double bottom has formed. Thus, expect a move down to the second bottom).

Excluding ETFs, there were 21 bullish chart patterns this week and 4 bearish ones with any remaining (7) being undecided.
The ratio of bullish to bearish patterns suggests the market is bullish.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

For details about the chart patterns, click here.

— Thomas Bulkowski

Top

 

 Symbol  Chart Pattern  Bullish 
 Bearish 
Start End Industry
ATSG Rectangle bottom        06/21/2021 07/01/2021 Air Transport
AMAT Pipe bottom        06/14/2021 06/21/2021 Semiconductor Cap Equip.
AGO Roof, inverted        06/02/2021 07/01/2021 Insurance (Life)
BMI Rectangle bottom        03/22/2021 06/28/2021 Precision Instrument
BCPC Triangle, symmetrical        05/06/2021 07/01/2021 Chemical (Specialty)
BBBY Pipe bottom        06/14/2021 06/21/2021 Retail (Special Lines)
BBY Pipe bottom        06/14/2021 06/21/2021 Retail (Special Lines)
COG Pipe bottom        06/14/2021 06/21/2021 Natural Gas (Diversified)
CX Broadening top        05/10/2021 06/25/2021 Cement and Aggregates
CF Double Bottom, Adam and Eve        06/18/2021 06/28/2021 Chemical (Basic)
CCRN Pipe top        06/14/2021 06/21/2021 Human Resources
FICO Triangle, ascending        05/26/2021 06/30/2021 IT Services
FIS Double Top, Eve and Eve        06/17/2021 06/28/2021 Computer Software and Svcs
GS Pipe bottom        06/14/2021 06/21/2021 Securities Brokerage
GFF Triangle, descending        06/10/2021 07/01/2021 Building Materials
HP Diamond top        06/04/2021 07/01/2021 Petroleum (Producing)
IPG Double Bottom, Eve and Eve        06/18/2021 06/30/2021 Advertising
KLAC Broadening top, right-angled and descending        05/25/2021 06/29/2021 Semiconductor Cap Equip.
MDCA Pipe bottom        06/14/2021 06/21/2021 Advertising
MU Pipe bottom        06/14/2021 06/21/2021 Semiconductor
MOS Double Bottom, Adam and Eve        06/18/2021 06/28/2021 Chemical (Diversified)
OMC Double Bottom, Adam and Eve        06/18/2021 06/28/2021 Advertising
PFE Triangle, symmetrical        05/05/2021 07/01/2021 Drug
DGX Scallop, descending        05/10/2021 06/29/2021 Medical Services
RLI Head-and-shoulders bottom        06/08/2021 06/28/2021 Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
SAIA Triangle, ascending        06/10/2021 07/01/2021 Trucking/Transp. Leasing
CRM Rectangle top        06/14/2021 07/01/2021 E-Commerce
SMTC Pipe bottom        06/14/2021 06/21/2021 Semiconductor Cap Equip.
TPR Rectangle bottom        06/04/2021 07/01/2021 Apparel
TSCO Pipe bottom        06/14/2021 06/21/2021 Retail Building Supply
VFC Channel        05/25/2021 07/01/2021 Apparel
VRTX Pipe bottom        06/14/2021 06/21/2021 Biotechnology

 

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Thursday 7/1/21. 2021 Market Forecast Update

The index dropped by -0.2% or -24.38 points. Since 02/05/1971 the index made 525 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day’s…

     Average gain was 0.7% on 275 occasions.

     Average loss was -0.8% on 250 occasions.

Expect the index to close higher 52.4% of the time.

Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:

     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 220/385 or 57.1% of the time.

     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 58/122 or 47.5% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Here’s the updated 2021 forecast for July, presented in slider format.

Based on sector performance from Fidelity, the best performing sectors for year to date performance as of 30 June 2021 were…
(The numbering is how they ranked a month ago.)

1. Energy (+40.5%)

2. Financials (+23.9%)

5. Real estate (+21.7%)

6. Communication services (+19.4%)

4. Industrials (+14.6%)

9. Information technology (+13.3%)

3. Materials (+13.2%)

7. Health care (+11.0%)

8. Consumer discretionary (+9.9%)

10. Consumer staples (+2.9%)

11. Utilities (+1.0%)

The folks at two firms polled by Fidelity weigh the sectors in this order.

1. Information technology

2. Health care

3. Consumer discretionary

4. Financials

5. Communication services

6. Industrials

7. Consumer staples

8. Energy

9. Materials

11. Real estate

10. Utilities

The only change in the above list was real estate moved up a notch.

Here’s how they rank the industries, but only the top 10 appear. Year to date returns, as of 6/29. The numbering is how they ranked a month ago.

4. Oil, Gas and Consumable fuels (+41.8%)

2. Consumer finance (+40.4%)

3. Real estate management and development (36.7%)

8. Interactive media and services (35.6%)

1. Metals and mining (+30.4%)

10. Distributors (+28.9%)

(new) Building products (28.5%)

9. Energy equipment and services (+28.2%)

5. Banks (+26.6%)

7. Household durables (+26.5%)

(new) Capital markets (25.2%)

$ $ $

Here’s a symbol list of 185 chart and candlestick patterns (13 “investment grade” candle patterns) found in today’s securities using my version of Patternz:
MMM, ANF, AXDX, ACIW, ADBE, ADTN, AEIS, AMD, AJRD, AKAM, ALRM, ALB, AA, ALL, AMED, ANIK, AON, APOG, AMAT, ARCB, ACGL, ADM, ASH, AVNT, BAX, BBBY, BBY, BIIB, BOOT, BAH, BMY, CBT, COG, CAL, CPB, CX, CENX, CTXS, CMCO, COP, CSOD, GLW, CR, CREE, CRH, CROX, CCRN, DECK, ^DJI, D, EMN, EBAY, EQT, RE, EVH, FICO, FIS, FE, FISV, FIVN, FLEX, FLS, FMC, FCX, GIS, GS, GPRO, HSII, HP, HON, IDA, IPAR, JAZZ, KMT, KFRC, KBAL, KSS, LB, LRCX, LNC, L, MTSI, M, MAN, MRO, MCHX, MTRN, MDCA, MU, MS, MLI, CNR, NTAP, NEU, JWN, NUS, PKE, PLXS, PFG, KWR, QCOM, RNG, ROK, ^GSPC, SEIC, SIGI, SRE, SMTC, NOW, SCCO, SWN, SCS, SUM, TDC, TKR, TJX, TSCO, VMI, VEEV, VRTX, VMC, WMT, WDAY, XEL, XLNX, IAI, IEO, IDU, DDM, FDN, FXL, FXI, ICF, IAT, IGV, SOXX, IGE, EWA, EWO, EWK, EWQ, EWG, EIS, EWI, EWJ, EWM, EWW, EPP, EWP, EWL, EWT, PPA, DBA, PEJ, IEV, SSO, MXI, XRT, SPY, SMH. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day’s high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences),
the area might act as support or resistance.

— Thomas Bulkowski

Top

© 2021 ThePatternSite.com    Metric   Value   Diff   Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2   13,176.02      
 Weekly S2   13,838.40   662.37   
 Monthly S1   13,839.99   1.59   Yes! The Monthly S1 is close to the Weekly S2.
 Monthly Pivot   14,127.22   287.24   
 Weekly S1   14,171.17   43.95   
 Weekly Pivot   14,292.82   121.64   
 Daily S2   14,454.19   161.37   
 Low   14,478.06   23.87   
 Daily S1   14,479.07   1.01   Yes! The Daily S1 is close to the Low.
 61.8% Down from Intraday High   14,496.68   17.61   
 50% Down from Intraday High   14,502.43   5.75   
 Daily Pivot   14,502.94   0.51   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 50% Down from Intraday High.
 Close   14,503.95   1.01   Yes! The Close is close to the Daily Pivot.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High   14,508.19   4.24   Yes! The 38.2% Down from Intraday High is close to the Close.
 Open   14,509.85   1.66   Yes! The Open is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High.
 High   14,526.81   16.96   
 Daily R1   14,527.82   1.01   Yes! The Daily R1 is close to the High.
 Daily R2   14,551.69   23.87   
 Weekly R1   14,625.59   73.90   
 Weekly R2   14,747.24   121.64   
 Monthly R1   14,791.19   43.95   
 Monthly R2   15,078.42   287.24   


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Trading Quiz Tuesday: Yellow Roadway…

Blog: May 2021 As of 05/06/2021   Indus: 34,549 +318.19 +0.9%     Trans: 15,724 +84.67 +0.5%     Utils: 909 +6.52 +0.7%   ...

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