As of 12/14/2021 Indus: 35,544 -106.77 -0.3% Trans: 16,008 -202.82 -1.3% Utils: 942 -5.00 -0.5% Nasdaq: 15,238 -175.64 -1.1% S&P 500: 4,634 -34.88 -0.7% |
YTD +16.1% +28.0% +9.0% +18.2% +23.4% |
36,600 or 34,000 by 01/01/2022
17,100 or 15,350 by 01/01/2022
975 or 925 by 01/01/2022
16,000 or 14,800 by 01/01/2022
4,850 or 4,480 by 01/01/2022
|
As of 12/14/2021 Indus: 35,544 -106.77 -0.3% Trans: 16,008 -202.82 -1.3% Utils: 942 -5.00 -0.5% Nasdaq: 15,238 -175.64 -1.1% S&P 500: 4,634 -34.88 -0.7% |
YTD +16.1% +28.0% +9.0% +18.2% +23.4% |
|
36,600 or 34,000 by 01/01/2022
17,100 or 15,350 by 01/01/2022
975 or 925 by 01/01/2022
16,000 or 14,800 by 01/01/2022
4,850 or 4,480 by 01/01/2022
|
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Wednesday 12/15/21. A Look At Indicators
This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.
This chart shows the indicator turning bearish, which the vertical red bar on the far right of the chart highlights.
Earlier in the year (May through August) the red bars didn’t signal much of a decline. After August (Sept, Nov) the index made a big down move after red bars appeared. Will it again crumble
because of today’s red bar?
I have my doubts. The stories we see in the news are a lot of fear packed upon incidents where we’ve seen a fast recovery in the past. Because we’ve been through a covid decline once
already, I don’t think we’ll see it again. Certainly not to the extent that we saw in early 2020.
Besides all of that, the indicator can change for up to a week, so today’s bearish signal could be fake.
The red line is the percentage of stocks at least 20% below their 1-year high (plotted upside down). The blue line is the average percentage drop of stocks below their 1-year high (plotted upside down).
On Tuesday, 32% of stocks in my database are in bear market territory (down at least 20% from their 1-year high).
A week ago, it was 28%.
The fewest was 8% on 03/15/2021.
And the most was 39% on 12/01/2021.
The 459 stocks in my database are down an average of 17% from their yearly high.
A week ago, the average was 15%.
The peak was 8% on 03/15/2021.
And the bottom was 19% on 12/01/2021.
Both the red and blue lines are more bearish today than they were a week ago. I am somewhat hopeful that if you compare the timing of the red line’s bottom, in this chart, it happened at the
start of December. Directly above that valley the index made a lower low for 2 extra days. In other words, the red (and blue) line(s) signaled a bottom 2 days before the index (suggesting a
downturn end and a recovery).
Looking forward, we have a bearish CPI chart and a bearish percent down chart. That would suggest the index is going to drop more in the coming days.
I just don’t believe it. I think the index will rise. In fact, I’m looking for a recovery going into the new year.
$ $ $
Here’s a symbol list of 143 chart and candlestick patterns (13 “investment grade” candle patterns) found in today’s securities using my version of Patternz:
AXDX, ADBE, APD, ALRM, ALB, AA, AYX, AMED, AEE, ABC, ANTM, APA, ARCB, ACGL, BCPC, BLL, BBBY, BIIB, BA, BLDR, CPB, CF, CRL, CHD, CTXS, CLNE, CNA, CAG, EIX, EMR, EOG, EQT, FOE, FTNT, FDP, IT, GD, GE, GOOGL, GPRO, HL, HP, HNI, HD, IDXX, ILMN, INCY, IBP, IPI, INTU, ISRG, IVC, KBH, KELYA, LRCX, LEN, RAMP, LOW, MHO, MNDT, MRO, MDC, MRK, FB, MUR, MYGN, NWL, NEU, NXGN, NI, OTEX, PRFT, PFE, PNW, PFG, PG, PGR, PHM, DGX, RL, RLI, RCKY, SAIA, CRM, SMG, SRE, NOW, SHW, SWN, SR, SXI, TGT, TXN, TOL, WMT, WU, WDAY, ITA, ITB, IEZ, IHE, FTEC, FDN, QTEC, FXL, BOTZ, IGV, EWK, EWZ, ECH, EWQ, EWG, EWH, EIS, EWM, EWW, EPP, EWS, EWY, EWD, EWT, EWU, QLD, IEV, ILF, MXI, XLY, XLP, XHB, XLK, UNG, MGK. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).
For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.
— Thomas Bulkowski
Tuesday 12/14/21. Slider Trading Quiz! Fed Ex (version 4)
Average gain was 0.8% on 210 occasions.
Average loss was -0.9% on 225 occasions.
Expect the index to close lower 51.7% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 234/419 or 55.8% of the time.
The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 43/91 or 47.3% of the time.
$ $ $
I show another slider trading quiz featuring Fed Ex: FDX 4.
$ $ $
Here’s a symbol list of 142 chart and candlestick patterns (13 “investment grade” candle patterns) found in today’s securities using my version of Patternz:
AJRD, ALK, ALB, AEP, AEL, AXP, AMN, ARCB, ACGL, ADM, ATO, BZH, BBBY, BKH, BA, BKNG, BOOT, EPAY, BBW, BLDR, CSCO, CTXS, CNO, GLW, CCRN, CTS, XRAY, DDS, ^DJI, D, BOOM, EXP, EMR, EXC, FE, FISV, FMC, GE, GGG, EVRG, GES, HL, HOLX, HD, HURC, IDA, INCY, INFN, IBP, IPAR, IPG, IPI, INTU, JBLU, JNJ, KBH, KMB, KLIC, LANC, LEN, LOW, MHO, MCHX, MDC, MLKN, MS, NBR, NWL, NXGN, NKE, NI, NWPX, OXY, OGE, OMCL, ASGN, PTEN, PLXS, PPG, PEG, PHM, DGX, RL, RGA, RHI, ^GSPC, SLB, SIGI, SHW, SCCO, LUV, SXI, TPX, TER, TKR, TOL, TZOO, VFC, VLO, VRTX, WDAY, XEL, ITB, IHI, IEO, IHE, IDU, FTEC, IAT, IGV, EWO, EWC, ECH, EEM, EWG, EIS, EWM, EWW, EWS, EZA, EWY, EWP, EWD, TUR, PXJ, IEV, XHB, XLK, UNG. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).
For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.
$ $ $
The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day’s high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences),
the area might act as support or resistance.
— Thomas Bulkowski
© 2021 ThePatternSite.com Metric | Value | Diff | Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? |
Monthly S2 | 32,849.14 | ||
Weekly S2 | 34,073.10 | 1,223.96 | |
Monthly S1 | 34,250.04 | 176.95 | |
Weekly S1 | 34,862.02 | 611.98 | |
Daily S2 | 35,390.40 | 528.38 | |
Monthly Pivot | 35,407.89 | 17.48 | Yes! The Monthly Pivot is close to the Daily S2. |
Weekly Pivot | 35,422.36 | 14.47 | Yes! The Weekly Pivot is close to the Monthly Pivot. |
Daily S1 | 35,520.68 | 98.32 | |
Low | 35,609.53 | 88.86 | |
Close | 35,650.95 | 41.42 | |
Daily Pivot | 35,739.80 | 88.86 | |
61.8% Down from Intraday High | 35,743.00 | 3.20 | Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot. |
50% Down from Intraday High | 35,784.23 | 41.23 | |
38.2% Down from Intraday High | 35,825.46 | 41.23 | |
Daily R1 | 35,870.08 | 44.62 | |
Open | 35,958.93 | 88.85 | |
High | 35,958.93 | 0.00 | Yes! The High is close to the Open. |
Daily R2 | 36,089.20 | 130.27 | |
Weekly R1 | 36,211.29 | 122.08 | |
Weekly R2 | 36,771.62 | 560.33 | |
Monthly R1 | 36,808.79 | 37.18 | |
Monthly R2 | 37,966.64 | 1,157.84 |
Monday 12/13/21. Market Monday: The Week Ahead
My Prediction
I show the Nasdaq composite on the daily scale.
This was a tough chart to draw lines on. The top red line went in just fine because it lines up well with the peaks and we have plenty of trendline touches.
The bottom line I struggled with. Why? Because it didn’t really line up well. I drew what’s called an internet trendline which slices through price. That’s clear at A.
This is not how I like to draw trendlines, but it seems to make sense in this situation.
What does the chart show?
This is an ascending broadening wedge. The two trendlines slope upward and diverge. Price nears or touches the internal trendline several times and has a fake
downward breakout at A.
The pause we see now might be just that, a pause, before the uptrend continues. That’s what I think will happen. However, it’s also possible that we’ll see it reverse here and head
down toward the bottom trendline. Indeed, you see that situation just before point A. Price neared the bottom trendline, moved up about halfway and then reversed to pierce the trendline at A.
We’ll know in the coming weeks which way the composite moves.
A Brief Look Back
The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.
Monday: Up 646.95 points.
Tuesday: Up 492.4 points.
Wednesday: Up 35.32 points.
Thursday: Down 0.06 points.
Friday: Up 216.3 points.
For the Week…
The Dow industrials were up 1390.91 points or 4.0%.
The Nasdaq composite was up 545.13 points or 3.6%.
The S&P 500 index was up 173.59 points or 3.8%.
Year to Date…
Dow Industrials
1.6% down from the high of 36,565.73 on 11/08/2021.
20.5% up from the low of 29,856.30 on 01/29/2021.
Nasdaq
3.6% down from the high of 16,212.23 on 11/22/2021.
26.1% up from the low of 12,397.05 on 03/05/2021.
S&P 500
0.7% down from the high of 4,743.83 on 11/22/2021.
28.6% up from the low of 3,662.71 on 01/04/2021.
Options Expiration
Many options expire this week, so traders will be looking to close out their positions, and that suggests increased volatility (large daily price swings).
Swing Traders: Pivot Points
The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, “Take a
two-dimensional approach.” He offers these tips.
Index | S2 | S1 | Pivot | R1 | R2 |
Dow Industrials (^DJI): Daily | 35,616 | 35,793 | 35,888 | 36,066 | 36,160 |
Weekly | 34,180 | 35,075 | 35,529 | 36,425 | 36,878 |
Monthly | 32,956 | 34,463 | 35,515 | 37,022 | 38,073 |
S&P500 (^GSPC): Daily | 4,655 | 4,684 | 4,699 | 4,727 | 4,742 |
Weekly | 4,482 | 4,597 | 4,655 | 4,770 | 4,828 |
Monthly | 4,402 | 4,557 | 4,650 | 4,806 | 4,899 |
Nasdaq (^IXIC): Daily | 15,396 | 15,513 | 15,595 | 15,713 | 15,795 |
Weekly | 14,588 | 15,109 | 15,453 | 15,974 | 16,317 |
Monthly | 14,310 | 14,970 | 15,591 | 16,252 | 16,872 |
- Seekinger doesn’t look at the range of S2 to R2 as support and resistance levels. Rather, he considers them oversold (S) and overbought (R) areas.
- S2 to R2 range of values across daily, weekly, and monthly periods: If two values are close together then they lend more significance to the area.
- If the market trends on day 1, the odds rise tremendously that the market will be range bound between daily S1 and daily R1 the next day.
- In a quiet market when traders are waiting for an important earnings announcement or economic report, look for daily R1 and S1 levels to hold and for the market to return to the daily pivot.
- A move outside of daily R1 or S1 usually does not mean a breakout.
- The odds suggest that the entire week’s price action will remain between weekly R2 and S2.
- Avoid going long when the market moves above weekly R2 (it’s overbought) and avoid going short when price moves below weekly S2 (oversold).
- Consider going short at weekly R1 or long at weekly S1 with a profit objective of the weekly pivot.
- Consider going long at weekly S2 or short at weekly R2 with a profit objective of weekly S1 or R1, respectively.
Here are the formulas:
Pivot point: P = (H + L + C)/3
First resistance level: R1 = (2 * P) – L
First support level: S1 = (2 * P) – H)
Second resistance level: R2 = P + (R1 – S1)
Second support level: S2 = P – (R1 – S1)
H = high price , L=low price, C=closing price
Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries
Earnings season is over.
Mutual funds will begin dividend distributions and rebalancing their portfolios for the approaching year end (starts in late November).
Here’s a symbol list of 114 chart and candlestick patterns (13 “investment grade” candle patterns) found in today’s securities using my version of Patternz:
AJRD, ALK, DOX, AEO, AEL, AXP, AIG, AMWD, AMGN, AIZ, BCPC, BZH, BIO, BA, BAH, EPAY, BMY, BBW, BG, CPB, CX, CNC, CSCO, CNO, COP, COST, CCK, CMI, XRAY, WIRE, FE, FISV, FMC, GE, GNW, GS, GPRO, GES, HIG, HNI, HON, JBHT, IDA, INCY, INFN, IIIN, ITGR, IPAR, IPG, JBLU, KLIC, LEG, LLY, LOW, MHO, MLM, MDC, MU, MLKN, NWL, NXGN, NI, OXY, ASGN, PKG, PANW, PATK, PTEN, PNW, PLXS, PPG, DGX, RL, RGS, RGA, ROG, SLB, SCCO, LUV, SWN, TECH, TPX, TMO, TZOO, TG, VFC, VLO, VRTX, WMT, WLK, WMB, IYK, ITB, FTEC, IYH, IHF, IGV, EWC, EWH, EIS, EWW, EZA, EWY, EWL, XLP, GLD, SPY. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).
For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.
The below industries were the best (rank 1) or worst performing of those I follow.
|
— Thomas Bulkowski
Friday 12/10/21. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.
$ $ $
Here’s a symbol list of 112 chart and candlestick patterns (13 “investment grade” candle patterns) found in today’s securities using my version of Patternz:
ANF, AJRD, AFL, APD, ATSG, ALK, AEE, AEL, AIG, AMGN, ANIK, ACGL, AWI, ATO, BZH, BIO, BAH, BBW, CLS, CNC, CIEN, CINF, CNA, CNO, CMTL, COP, DHR, XRAY, DFS, DOV, WIRE, EPAM, EXC, XOM, FE, FISV, FMC, FTNT, FDP, IT, HTLD, HOV, JBHT, IDA, IDXX, ITW, INCY, INFN, IIIN, IPAR, TILE, IPG, JBLU, KBH, LEG, LEN, LOW, MHO, M, MDC, NXGN, OXY, OMCL, OXM, PKG, PTEN, PETS, PLXS, PPG, PPL, PRU, PHM, RL, RGA, RNG, SLB, NOW, LUV, SWN, TECH, TPX, TEVA, UPS, VFC, VLO, VEEV, VRTX, WSM, IYK, ITB, IDU, FTEC, ICF, IHF, IAT, SLV, EIS, EWW, EZA, EWY, TUR, XLP, XHB. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).
For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.
$ $ $
You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.
The following patterns were found manually, not using Patternz. Mr. Bulkowski has excluded any securities he owns from appearing in the list. However, he may add any of the securities listed to his portfolio at any time, just as you can.
In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.
For details about the chart patterns, click here.
— Thomas Bulkowski
Thursday 12/9/21. Cryptocurrency: DOGE-USD
Average gain was 0.7% on 316 occasions.
Average loss was -0.7% on 193 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 62.1% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 233/403 or 57.8% of the time.
The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 59/126 or 46.8% of the time.
Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.
$ $ $
I show a picture of the cryptocurrency DOGE-USD.
At AB there’s a chart pattern called a double top. It confirms as a valid chart pattern when the currency closes below the red line. That line connects the lowest valley between peaks A and B.
A downward breakout occurs at C. It seems hard to envision but the pattern predicts a drop below C as far as the height of AB to C. On this scale, it looks like the currency would go below 0, so
you’ll want to be conservative in your projections.
What we can say about the double top is that the currency is going down. The chart shows that’s already happened (with the spike down at C). What’s not clear is how much lower it might go. Indeed, it appears to be pulling
back now, but that upward move of the last four days looks anemic. So maybe it’ll resume dropping.
$ $ $
Here’s a symbol list of 97 chart and candlestick patterns (13 “investment grade” candle patterns) found in today’s securities using my version of Patternz:
ANF, ALK, AEL, AFG, AIG, ANIK, AXS, BZH, BBW, CPB, CLS, CNC, CHD, CNO, COP, COST, CCK, CW, DHR, XRAY, DOV, WIRE, EPAM, EXC, FICO, FE, FISV, FMC, FDP, FRD, HTLD, HSII, HP, INCY, INFN, IPAR, TILE, IPG, IVC, JBLU, K, KSS, LEG, LOW, MHO, M, MDC, NXGN, NI, OXY, OTEX, OUT, PATK, PTEN, PCG, PLXS, PPG, PPL, PG, PHM, RL, RGA, SLB, SCCO, SWN, TGT, TPX, SLCA, VFC, VLO, VEEV, VRTX, VMC, WSO, ITB, FTEC, FXI, IAT, EWA, EWO, EWZ, EWM, EWW, EZA, EWY, EWL, IEV, ILF, XLE. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).
For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.
$ $ $
The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day’s high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences),
the area might act as support or resistance.
— Thomas Bulkowski
© 2021 ThePatternSite.com Metric | Value | Diff | Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? |
Monthly S2 | 14,362.26 | ||
Weekly S2 | 14,615.00 | 252.75 | |
Monthly S1 | 15,074.62 | 459.62 | |
Weekly S1 | 15,201.00 | 126.37 | |
Weekly Pivot | 15,517.05 | 316.06 | |
Daily S2 | 15,559.08 | 42.02 | |
Low | 15,618.88 | 59.80 | |
Monthly Pivot | 15,643.43 | 24.55 | |
Daily S1 | 15,673.03 | 29.61 | |
61.8% Down from Intraday High | 15,685.26 | 12.22 | Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily S1. |
Open | 15,690.65 | 5.39 | Yes! The Open is close to the 61.8% Down from Intraday High. |
50% Down from Intraday High | 15,705.76 | 15.11 | Yes! The 50% Down from Intraday High is close to the Open. |
38.2% Down from Intraday High | 15,726.26 | 20.50 | |
Daily Pivot | 15,732.84 | 6.57 | Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High. |
Close | 15,786.99 | 54.15 | |
High | 15,792.64 | 5.65 | Yes! The High is close to the Close. |
Daily R1 | 15,846.79 | 54.15 | |
Daily R2 | 15,906.60 | 59.80 | |
Weekly R1 | 16,103.05 | 196.45 | |
Monthly R1 | 16,355.79 | 252.75 | |
Weekly R2 | 16,419.10 | 63.31 | |
Monthly R2 | 16,924.60 | 505.49 |
Wednesday 12/8/21. A Look At Indicators
This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.
The CPI turned bullish as shown by the green vertical bar on the far right of the chart. It shows the indicator turned green yesterday but it could have been today’s
big move in the indices which caused the indicator to flash green yesterday. Sound weird?
I mention this because a strong move could cause the indicator to change signals for up to a week (meaning we could have had a bullish signal days ago). That ‘feature’ is like looking in the mirror
as you drive down the road and saying, “You should have turned back there,” and then being able to make that turn.
In short, this chart is bullish.
The red line is the percentage of stocks at least 20% below their 1-year high (plotted upside down). The blue line is the average percentage drop of stocks below their 1-year high (plotted upside down).
On Tuesday, 28% of stocks in my database are in bear market territory (down at least 20% from their 1-year high).
A week ago, it was 36%.
The fewest was 8% on 03/15/2021.
And the most was 39% on 12/01/2021.
The 459 stocks in my database are down an average of 15% from their yearly high.
A week ago, the average was 18%.
The peak was 8% on 03/15/2021.
And the bottom was 19% on 12/01/2021.
Both the red and blue lines on this chart show marked improvement from a week ago. I think it’s odd that the red line made a lower low less than a week ago even as the index shows a consistent
uptrend (starting off the chart to the left), in a rise-retrace pattern. Both the red and blue lines have shown growing weakness in the index (since March, when the two lines peaked).
Regardless, these lines are moving up and that means they are more bullish now than a week ago.
Combined with the bullishness of the prior chart, it seems clear that the uptrend will continue…until it stops. Russia invading Ukraine could be a cause as well as Covid 19 adapting
to the vaccines and becoming more lethal. Lots can happen but I remain bullish.
$ $ $
Here’s a symbol list of 143 chart and candlestick patterns (13 “investment grade” candle patterns) found in today’s securities using my version of Patternz:
ACN, ADTN, AJRD, ALK, AEL, AXP, APH, AAPL, AWI, AXS, BMI, BZH, BMRN, BRC, BBW, BLDR, CNC, CENX, CHKP, CTXS, CNO, CMCO, COP, COTY, CRH, CCK, DHR, DECK, XRAY, DVN, DOV, EL, FAST, FE, FISV, FMC, FORM, FWRD, FCX, FDP, HQY, HL, HSII, HOLX, INCY, NSP, INTC, IPAR, TILE, IPG, NVTA, JBLU, KBH, K, KLIC, LANC, LEG, LDOS, MHO, MA, MDC, MDT, MRK, MU, MUR, NBR, NXGN, NKE, NI, OXY, OLN, OTEX, OXM, PANW, PTEN, PLXS, PPG, DGX, RL, RGA, RNG, ROK, SLB, SCCO, SWX, SCS, TPR, TPX, TER, TXN, TMO, SLCA, VFC, VLO, VEEV, VRTX, WSO, WDAY, XEL, XLNX, IYM, IAI, ITB, IEZ, DDM, IYH, IHF, SOXX, IGE, EWO, EWK, EWZ, EWC, EWH, EWI, EWW, EWS, EZA, EWY, EWL, EWT, EWU, PXJ, PHO, IXC, ILF, SSO, XLE, XLV, XHB, XLI, XLB, XRT, USO, VIS, VAW. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).
For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.
— Thomas Bulkowski
Tuesday 12/7/21. Slider Trading Quiz!
Average gain was 0.8% on 43 occasions.
Average loss was -0.5% on 56 occasions.
Expect the index to close lower 56.6% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 234/419 or 55.8% of the time.
The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 43/90 or 47.8% of the time.
$ $ $
I show another slider trading quiz featuring Fed Ex: FDX 3
$ $ $
Here’s a symbol list of 84 chart and candlestick patterns (13 “investment grade” candle patterns) found in today’s securities using my version of Patternz:
MMM, ABT, AES, AEL, AFG, AMWD, AZTA, BLL, EPAY, BRC, CAL, CNC, CRL, CVX, CTXS, CNO, CAG, CLR, COTY, EIX, WIRE, EOG, FICO, FE, FORM, FRD, IT, GD, GIS, GL, THG, HAYN, IBP, IPI, KMB, LXU, M, MCHX, MTRN, MUR, NFG, NTAP, NI, NOC, OGE, OUT, OXM, POR, PPG, PPL, PG, KWR, RMBS, SMTC, SO, SXI, TGT, TPX, TEVA, RIG, VRTX, WEX, WSM, IYK, IEO, ICF, IYF, EWA, EWC, EWH, EWY, EWD, IBB, ROBO, IXC, XLF, UNG, USO. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).
For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.
$ $ $
The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day’s high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences),
the area might act as support or resistance.
— Thomas Bulkowski
© 2021 ThePatternSite.com Metric | Value | Diff | Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? |
Monthly S2 | 32,707.83 | ||
Weekly S2 | 33,559.71 | 851.88 | |
Monthly S1 | 33,967.43 | 407.72 | |
Daily S2 | 34,349.08 | 381.65 | |
Weekly S1 | 34,393.37 | 44.29 | Yes! The Weekly S1 is close to the Daily S2. |
Low | 34,633.43 | 240.06 | |
Open | 34,633.43 | 0.00 | Yes! The Open is close to the Low. |
Daily S1 | 34,788.05 | 154.63 | |
Weekly Pivot | 34,840.64 | 52.59 | Yes! The Weekly Pivot is close to the Daily S1. |
61.8% Down from Intraday High | 34,909.74 | 69.10 | Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Weekly Pivot. |
50% Down from Intraday High | 34,995.09 | 85.35 | |
Daily Pivot | 35,072.40 | 77.31 | |
38.2% Down from Intraday High | 35,080.44 | 8.04 | Yes! The 38.2% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot. |
Close | 35,227.03 | 146.59 | |
Monthly Pivot | 35,266.58 | 39.55 | Yes! The Monthly Pivot is close to the Close. |
High | 35,356.75 | 90.17 | |
Daily R1 | 35,511.38 | 154.63 | |
Weekly R1 | 35,674.30 | 162.93 | |
Daily R2 | 35,795.72 | 121.42 | |
Weekly R2 | 36,121.57 | 325.85 | |
Monthly R1 | 36,526.18 | 404.61 | |
Monthly R2 | 37,825.33 | 1,299.15 |
Monday 12/6/21. Market Monday: The Week Ahead
My Prediction
I show the Dow industrials on the daily scale.
I drew two red lines following the peaks and valleys, respectively. What do they show?
Notice that both lines slope upward. That indicates a rising price trend. Taken together, the two lines highlight a chart pattern called an ascending broadening wedge.
Those breakout downward most often (52% of the time). That’s about random.
Here’s what I expect will happen. At A, the index got near the bottom trendline but didn’t quite make it down there. It has made higher lows during the last two days. I expect that
uptrend to continue following the green line. We might see a test of the bottom line like the loop it did in September. Or the index can continue up until it touches or nears the top line.
A Brief Look Back
The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.
Monday: Up 236.6 points.
Tuesday: Down 652.22 points.
Wednesday: Down 461.68 points.
Thursday: Up 617.75 points.
Friday: Down 59.71 points.
For the Week…
The Dow industrials were down 319.26 points or 0.9%.
The Nasdaq composite was down 406.19 points or 2.6%.
The S&P 500 index was down 56.19 points or 1.2%.
Year to Date…
Dow Industrials
5.4% down from the high of 36,565.73 on 11/08/2021.
15.8% up from the low of 29,856.30 on 01/29/2021.
Nasdaq
7.0% down from the high of 16,212.23 on 11/22/2021.
21.7% up from the low of 12,397.05 on 03/05/2021.
S&P 500
4.3% down from the high of 4,743.83 on 11/22/2021.
23.9% up from the low of 3,662.71 on 01/04/2021.
Options Expiration
No options expire this week.
Swing Traders: Pivot Points
The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, “Take a
two-dimensional approach.” He offers these tips.
Index | S2 | S1 | Pivot | R1 | R2 |
Dow Industrials (^DJI): Daily | 34,012 | 34,296 | 34,549 | 34,833 | 35,085 |
Weekly | 33,344 | 33,962 | 34,625 | 35,243 | 35,906 |
Monthly | 32,492 | 33,536 | 35,051 | 36,095 | 37,610 |
S&P500 (^GSPC): Daily | 4,434 | 4,486 | 4,547 | 4,599 | 4,660 |
Weekly | 4,391 | 4,465 | 4,569 | 4,643 | 4,747 |
Monthly | 4,344 | 4,441 | 4,592 | 4,690 | 4,841 |
Nasdaq (^IXIC): Daily | 14,623 | 14,854 | 15,162 | 15,394 | 15,702 |
Weekly | 14,381 | 14,733 | 15,283 | 15,635 | 16,185 |
Monthly | 14,128 | 14,607 | 15,410 | 15,888 | 16,691 |
- Seekinger doesn’t look at the range of S2 to R2 as support and resistance levels. Rather, he considers them oversold (S) and overbought (R) areas.
- S2 to R2 range of values across daily, weekly, and monthly periods: If two values are close together then they lend more significance to the area.
- If the market trends on day 1, the odds rise tremendously that the market will be range bound between daily S1 and daily R1 the next day.
- In a quiet market when traders are waiting for an important earnings announcement or economic report, look for daily R1 and S1 levels to hold and for the market to return to the daily pivot.
- A move outside of daily R1 or S1 usually does not mean a breakout.
- The odds suggest that the entire week’s price action will remain between weekly R2 and S2.
- Avoid going long when the market moves above weekly R2 (it’s overbought) and avoid going short when price moves below weekly S2 (oversold).
- Consider going short at weekly R1 or long at weekly S1 with a profit objective of the weekly pivot.
- Consider going long at weekly S2 or short at weekly R2 with a profit objective of weekly S1 or R1, respectively.
Here are the formulas:
Pivot point: P = (H + L + C)/3
First resistance level: R1 = (2 * P) – L
First support level: S1 = (2 * P) – H)
Second resistance level: R2 = P + (R1 – S1)
Second support level: S2 = P – (R1 – S1)
H = high price , L=low price, C=closing price
Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries
Earnings season is over.
Mutual funds will begin dividend distributions and rebalancing their portfolios for the approaching year end (starts in late November).
Here’s a symbol list of 109 chart and candlestick patterns (13 “investment grade” candle patterns) found in today’s securities using my version of Patternz:
ABT, AYI, AEIS, AMD, ALRM, ALB, AA, AEL, AMWD, AMN, BMI, BZH, BOOT, EPAY, BBW, CDNS, CAL, CX, CNC, CRL, CHKP, CHS, COTY, CTS, D, EBAY, WIRE, FFIV, FE, FLEX, FORM, FRD, HAYN, HL, HOV, IDXX, ILMN, IBP, ITGR, IBKR, IPI, NVTA, JAZZ, LLY, LXU, M, MTRN, MTRX, MU, ^IXIC, NJR, NEU, NXGN, OXM, PANW, PRFT, PETS, KWR, RL, RMBS, REV, RHI, SAIC, SMG, SMTC, SKX, SXI, TECH, TDC, RIG, VRTX, WSO, WERN, WSM, WOLF, IYC, FTEC, QTEC, BOTZ, IAT, ECH, EWQ, EWG, EIS, EWI, EPP, EWS, EWY, EWD, EWT, QLD, IBB, PJP, QQQ, ROBO, IEV, IXN, XLY, XRT, MGK. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).
For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.
The below industries were the best (rank 1) or worst performing of those I follow.
|
— Thomas Bulkowski
Friday 12/3/21. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.
$ $ $
Here’s a symbol list of 97 chart and candlestick patterns (13 “investment grade” candle patterns) found in today’s securities using my version of Patternz:
ABT, AEIS, ALRM, ADS, DOX, AIG, AMWD, APA, ATO, BMI, BA, EPAY, BRC, CDNS, CAL, CNC, CF, CRL, CINF, CTXS, CLNE, CMTL, CRH, ^DJI, EFX, XOM, FE, FLEX, IT, GD, GGG, HAYN, HL, INFN, IBP, INTU, JKHY, KBAL, LAMR, LDOS, LEN, RAMP, MHO, M, MUR, NTGR, NTAP, NJR, OXY, OXM, PKE, PHM, ROK, ROST, ^GSPC, SAIC, SEIC, SKX, SNPS, RIG, VEEV, VRTX, WSO, WERN, WSM, IYE, IEO, FXI, IYZ, EWO, EWK, EWZ, EEM, EWH, EWM, TUR, EWU, PPA, PXJ, IXC, MXI, XLE, GLD, XLV, UNG. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).
For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.
$ $ $
You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.
The following patterns were found manually, not using Patternz. Mr. Bulkowski has excluded any securities he owns from appearing in the list. However, he may add any of the securities listed to his portfolio at any time, just as you can.
In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.
For details about the chart patterns, click here.
— Thomas Bulkowski
Symbol | Chart Pattern | Bullish Bearish |
Start | End | Industry |
ACIW | Pipe top | 11/08/2021 | 11/15/2021 | IT Services | |
ALK | Pipe top | 11/01/2021 | 11/08/2021 | Air Transport | |
AEP | Head-and-shoulders complex top | 10/07/2021 | 11/22/2021 | Electric Utility (Central) | |
ANTM | Double Top, Eve and Eve | 10/27/2021 | 11/15/2021 | Medical Services | |
ADM | Double Top, Adam and Eve | 10/26/2021 | 11/15/2021 | Food Processing | |
AIZ | Head-and-shoulders top | 10/21/2021 | 11/23/2021 | Insurance (Diversified) | |
ATO | Double Top, Eve and Eve | 11/15/2021 | 11/23/2021 | Natural Gas (Diversified) | |
BMI | Double Top, Eve and Adam | 11/12/2021 | 11/22/2021 | Precision Instrument | |
BIO | Triangle, symmetrical | 10/29/2021 | 12/02/2021 | Medical Supplies | |
BLDR | Cup with handle | 05/10/2021 | 08/19/2021 | Retail Building Supply | |
CBT | Double Top, Adam and Adam | 11/09/2021 | 11/22/2021 | Chemical (Diversified) | |
CAL | Pipe top | 11/15/2021 | 11/22/2021 | Shoe | |
CPB | Head-and-shoulders top | 11/04/2021 | 11/26/2021 | Food Processing | |
CE | Double Top, Adam and Eve | 10/26/2021 | 11/10/2021 | Chemical (Basic) | |
CNC | Triple top | 06/16/2021 | 07/13/2021 | Medical Services | |
CL | Double Top, Eve and Eve | 11/16/2021 | 11/26/2021 | Household Products | |
CRH | Double Top, Eve and Adam | 11/08/2021 | 11/24/2021 | Cement and Aggregates | |
CSGS | Double Bottom, Adam and Adam | 11/16/2021 | 11/29/2021 | IT Services | |
CW | Head-and-shoulders top | 10/25/2021 | 11/22/2021 | Machinery | |
DDS | Dead-cat bounce | 11/29/2021 | 11/30/2021 | Retail Store | |
DFS | Double Top, Eve and Adam | 11/15/2021 | 11/24/2021 | Financial Services | |
EMN | Double Top, Eve and Adam | 11/12/2021 | 11/23/2021 | Chemical (Diversified) | |
EBAY | Pipe top | 10/18/2021 | 10/25/2021 | Internet | |
EXPD | Double Top, Adam and Adam | 11/04/2021 | 11/22/2021 | Air Transport | |
EZPW | Big M | 10/11/2021 | 11/18/2021 | Financial Services | |
FE | Triple top | 11/02/2021 | 11/16/2021 | Electric Utility (East) | |
FLEX | Pipe top | 11/08/2021 | 11/15/2021 | Electronics | |
FTNT | Three Falling Peaks | 11/08/2021 | 11/30/2021 | Computer Software and Svcs | |
FCX | Pipe top | 11/08/2021 | 11/15/2021 | Metals and Mining (Div.) | |
GL | Three Falling Peaks | 11/08/2021 | 11/23/2021 | Insurance (Life) | |
HAYN | Double Top, Eve and Adam | 11/09/2021 | 11/22/2021 | Building Materials | |
HSII | Triple top | 10/26/2021 | 11/16/2021 | Human Resources | |
HOV | Pipe bottom | 10/04/2021 | 10/11/2021 | Homebuilding | |
HUBG | Double Top, Adam and Eve | 11/05/2021 | 11/16/2021 | Trucking/Transp. Leasing | |
JBHT | Triple top | 10/25/2021 | 11/17/2021 | Trucking/Transp. Leasing | |
INCY | Double Bottom, Adam and Adam | 11/02/2021 | 11/23/2021 | Drug | |
IBP | Pipe top | 11/15/2021 | 11/22/2021 | Retail Building Supply | |
JAZZ | Head-and-shoulders top | 10/07/2021 | 11/12/2021 | Biotechnology | |
JBLU | Pipe top | 11/01/2021 | 11/08/2021 | Air Transport | |
LH | Triangle, symmetrical | 11/09/2021 | 12/02/2021 | Medical Services | |
LAMR | Pipe top | 11/01/2021 | 11/08/2021 | Advertising | |
LLY | Double Top, Eve and Adam | 11/04/2021 | 11/19/2021 | Drug | |
M | Pipe top | 11/15/2021 | 11/22/2021 | Retail Store | |
MRTN | Pipe bottom | 09/13/2021 | 09/20/2021 | Trucking/Transp. Leasing | |
MTRN | Double Top, Adam and Adam | 11/08/2021 | 11/22/2021 | Metals and Mining (Div.) | |
MRK | Pipe top | 10/25/2021 | 11/01/2021 | Drug | |
FB | Double Top, Adam and Adam | 11/15/2021 | 11/22/2021 | E-Commerce | |
NFLX | Double Top, Eve and Eve | 10/29/2021 | 11/17/2021 | Internet | |
OTEX | Double Top, Eve and Eve | 11/08/2021 | 11/17/2021 | E-Commerce | |
OXM | Pipe top | 11/15/2021 | 11/22/2021 | Apparel | |
PRU | Double Top, Eve and Adam | 10/26/2021 | 11/03/2021 | Insurance (Life) | |
SAIA | Double Top, Eve and Eve | 11/05/2021 | 11/17/2021 | Trucking/Transp. Leasing | |
SEIC | Triple top | 10/21/2021 | 11/16/2021 | IT Services | |
TPR | Double Top, Adam and Adam | 11/11/2021 | 11/22/2021 | Apparel | |
TXT | Triple top | 11/08/2021 | 11/22/2021 | Diversified Co. | |
TKR | Pipe top | 11/08/2021 | 11/15/2021 | Metal Fabricating | |
UPS | Three Falling Peaks | 10/26/2021 | 11/23/2021 | Air Transport | |
VC | Double Top, Eve and Eve | 11/08/2021 | 11/16/2021 | Electronics | |
WERN | Double Top, Adam and Eve | 10/28/2021 | 11/16/2021 | Trucking/Transp. Leasing | |
WLK | Head-and-shoulders top | 10/25/2021 | 11/24/2021 | Chemical (Basic) | |
WSM | Pipe top | 11/15/2021 | 11/22/2021 | Retail (Special Lines) | |
WWW | Pipe top | 11/01/2021 | 11/08/2021 | Shoe | |
IYC | Double Top, Adam and Adam | 11/05/2021 | 11/22/2021 | Retail Store | |
VIS | Double Top, Eve and Eve | 11/08/2021 | 11/16/2021 | Industrial Services | |
MGK | Head-and-shoulders top | 11/05/2021 | 11/30/2021 | None |
Thursday 12/2/21. Intraday Nasdaq: Down Then Up
Average gain was 0.9% on 23 occasions.
Average loss was -1.4% on 35 occasions.
Expect the index to close lower 60.3% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 233/403 or 57.8% of the time.
The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 59/125 or 47.2% of the time.
Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.
$ $ $
I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5-minute scale.
The market was trending lower as I show with the two parallel lines. Those lines highlight what’s called a channel. In a channel, price moves between two parallel
or nearly parallel lines.
Notice that today (Wednesday) the index pierced the channel. That’s a worrisome development. I expect you’ll see a pullback to the bottom of the channel.
I expect that will happen on Thursday and if not, then on Friday of this week.
After that, it’s just a guess. But I view this plunge in the indices as a buying opportunity. I think we’ll be higher going into the new year.
$ $ $
Here’s a symbol list of 136 chart and candlestick patterns (13 “investment grade” candle patterns) found in today’s securities using my version of Patternz:
DDD, AFL, AKAM, ALK, AA, ALL, AYX, AIG, ANIK, AON, APA, ATR, AGO, ATO, AVA, BIG, BA, BBW, CACI, CAL, CE, CNC, CRL, CHKP, CHS, CINF, CTXS, CLNE, CNO, CTSH, CRH, DHR, XRAY, DVN, DDS, EZPW, FDS, FE, FLEX, FTNT, FWRD, FDP, IT, GIS, GFF, THG, HAYN, HL, HSII, HSIC, HON, IBP, IIIN, JBLU, LZB, LANC, LEN, RAMP, LMT, MTSI, M, MNDT, MRO, MCHX, MDT, MRK, MUR, NFLX, NTAP, NJR, NKE, OXY, ORI, OMC, OXM, PKG, PKE, PDCO, PICO, RCKY, ROST, CRM, SAIC, SMG, NOW, SLGN, LUV, SXI, SSYS, SUM, SNPS, TPX, RIG, TZOO, SLCA, VRSN, VRTX, VC, WRB, WAT, WERN, WLK, WSM, WDAY, IYK, IYE, IEO, IEZ, ICF, IAT, IYF, EWW, EWD, TUR, DBA, PXJ, ROBO, IXC, XLE, XLF, XLV, UNG. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).
For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.
$ $ $
The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day’s high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences),
the area might act as support or resistance.
— Thomas Bulkowski
© 2021 ThePatternSite.com Metric | Value | Diff | Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? |
Monthly S2 | 14,304.56 | ||
Monthly S1 | 14,779.30 | 474.75 | |
Daily S2 | 14,865.38 | 86.07 | |
Weekly S2 | 14,884.65 | 19.27 | Yes! The Weekly S2 is close to the Daily S2. |
Daily S1 | 15,059.71 | 175.06 | |
Weekly S1 | 15,069.35 | 9.64 | Yes! The Weekly S1 is close to the Daily S1. |
Low | 15,243.93 | 174.58 | |
Close | 15,254.05 | 10.12 | Yes! The Close is close to the Low. |
Daily Pivot | 15,438.27 | 184.22 | |
61.8% Down from Intraday High | 15,462.77 | 24.51 | Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot. |
Monthly Pivot | 15,495.77 | 32.99 | Yes! The Monthly Pivot is close to the 61.8% Down from Intraday High. |
50% Down from Intraday High | 15,530.38 | 34.61 | Yes! The 50% Down from Intraday High is close to the Monthly Pivot. |
38.2% Down from Intraday High | 15,597.98 | 67.60 | |
Daily R1 | 15,632.60 | 34.63 | Yes! The Daily R1 is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High. |
Weekly Pivot | 15,640.79 | 8.19 | Yes! The Weekly Pivot is close to the Daily R1. |
Open | 15,752.27 | 111.48 | |
High | 15,816.82 | 64.55 | |
Weekly R1 | 15,825.49 | 8.67 | Yes! The Weekly R1 is close to the High. |
Monthly R1 | 15,970.51 | 145.02 | |
Daily R2 | 16,011.16 | 40.64 | Yes! The Daily R2 is close to the Monthly R1. |
Weekly R2 | 16,396.93 | 385.77 | |
Monthly R2 | 16,686.98 | 290.05 |
Monday 12/1/21. 2021 December Forecast Update
Here’s the updated 2021 forecast for December, presented in slider format.
Based on sector performance from Fidelity, the best performing sectors for one-year performance as of 30 November 2021 were…
(The numbering is how they ranked a month ago.)
1. Energy (+45%)
4. Information technology (+39%)
2. Financials (+37%)
3. Real estate (+33%)
8. Consumer discretionary (+28%)
5. Communication services (+24%)
7. Materials (+21%)
9. Health care (+21%)
6. Industrials (+17%)
10. Consumer staples (+10%)
11. Utilities (+6%)
The folks at two firms polled by Fidelity weigh the sectors in this order, as of 11/29.
1. Information technology (IT)
3. Consumer discretionary
2. Health care
4. Financials
5. Communication services
6. Industrials
7. Consumer staples
8. Energy
9. Real estate
10. Materials
11. Utilities
Here’s how they rank the industries, but only the top 10 appear. One-year change, as of 11/29. The numbering is how they ranked a month ago.
5. Construction and engineering (+65%)
New. Semiconductors & Semi equipment (+60%)
1. Real estate management and development (60%)
7. Automobiles (+55%)
New. Distributors (+52%)
New. Software (+50%)
3. Oil, gas and consumable fuels (+47%)
New. Construction Materials (+47%)
New. Interactive media & Services (+46%)
4. Consumer finance (+44%)
$ $ $
Here’s a symbol list of 187 chart and candlestick patterns (13 “investment grade” candle patterns) found in today’s securities using my version of Patternz:
ABT, ANF, ACIW, AFL, APD, AKAM, ALRM, AA, ADS, AMZN, AEO, AEL, AFG, AIG, APA, ATR, ACGL, ADM, AWI, AIZ, AGO, ADSK, ADP, AVNT, AXS, BECN, BKH, BAH, EPAY, BMY, CBT, CACI, CAL, CPB, CE, CNC, CENX, CTXS, CNA, CNO, CTSH, CMCO, CMTL, COP, CLR, GLW, CRH, CCK, CTS, DHR, DDS, EOG, EQT, RE, EXPD, XOM, FE, FLEX, FLS, FMC, FTNT, FDP, IT, GL, GFF, HBI, THG, HIG, HAYN, HL, HSII, HP, HSIC, HON, DHI, HURC, INFN, IBP, TILE, IPI, ISRG, JBLU, K, KSS, LAMR, LANC, LEN, RAMP, LMT, MTSI, M, MNDT, MRO, MCHX, MTRN, MDT, MGEE, NOV, CNR, NFLX, NTAP, NKE, ORI, OUT, OXM, PAYX, PLXS, POR, PINC, PFG, PGR, PRU, RGS, RLI, SLB, SAIC, SMG, NOW, SKX, SXI, SUM, SNPS, TECH, TDOC, TKR, RIG, TRV, UNM, VLO, VEEV, VRSN, WRB, WAT, WERN, WLK, WSM, WDAY, IYK, IYE, IEZ, IDU, BOTZ, ICF, IYH, IHF, IAT, IGE, IYF, EWZ, EWH, EWJ, EPP, EWS, EZA, EWD, EWT, TUR, DBA, PXJ, IXC, XLE, XLF, XLV, UNG, USO. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).
For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.
— Thomas Bulkowski
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