Trading Quiz Tuesday…

Friday 8/5/22. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

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Here’s a symbol list of 131 chart and candlestick patterns (13 “investment grade” candle patterns) found in today’s securities using my version of Patternz:
DDD, AMD, APD, DOX, AMED, ACGL, ATO, BMI, BALL, BSET, BZH, BMRN, BKH, BFH, CALM, CHS, ED, CONN, CLR, CRH, CCRN, CCK, CTS, DHR, DVN, DOV, DTE, DUK, ELV, EMR, WIRE, EPAM, EFX, XOM, EZPW, FDS, FAST, FISV, FLS, FORM, FDP, FRD, GS, HAYN, HSY, HNI, HOLX, HON, HUBG, HURC, ITW, INFN, ITGR, IVC, JNJ, KBAL, LNC, MHO, MRO, MCHX, MLM, MTRN, MDT, MRK, MLI, NBR, NOV, NI, NOC, OTEX, OUT, OXM, PANW, PKE, PRFT, PCG, PPL, PRU, PEG, RLI, SLB, SO, SXI, SUM, SRDX, TDOC, TFX, TEVA, TXT, TKR, TSCO, RIG, SLCA, VFC, VLO, VMC, WERN, XEL, ITA, IEZ, IHE, IHF, IEO, EWO, EWZ, EEM, EWQ, EWG, EIS, EWI, EWS, EWD, THD, TUR, IBB, PBE, PXJ, IEV, GLD, XLV. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

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You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

The following patterns were found manually, not using Patternz. Mr. Bulkowski has excluded any securities he owns from appearing in the list. However, he may add any of the securities listed to his portfolio at any time, just as you can.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

For details about the chart patterns, click here.

— Thomas Bulkowski

Thursday 8/4/22. Cryptocurrency Update: Bitcoin BTC-USD

Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:

     The prediction of the Nasdaq closing higher has been right 243/428 or 56.8% of the time.

     The prediction of the Nasdaq closing lower has been right 64/135 or 47.4% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

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I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5-minute scale.

Bottoms A and B highlight what I call an ugly double bottom. That’s when the second bottom (B) is significantly above the first bottom (A). It confirms as a valid bottom reversal at C.
That’s when the coin closes above the top of the double bottom. The coin has struggle to move higher since C but it remains above the red confirmation line.

I drew two green lines showing the trend of the coin. Notice that it curves upward. That slope suggests strength, that the value of the coin will continue higher.

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Here’s a symbol list of 121 chart and candlestick patterns (13 “investment grade” candle patterns) found in today’s securities using my version of Patternz:
AYX, AEP, AXP, ABC, AMGN, ANIK, AIZ, BMI, BALL, BAX, BFH, BG, CHS, CSCO, CGNX, CL, CMCO, CLR, CRH, CROX, CSGS, CTS, DSGR, D, DOV, DUK, EBAY, EMR, WIRE, EOG, EVH, FAST, FIS, FISV, FIVN, FDP, FRD, GL, HAYN, HQY, HP, HSIC, HNI, HON, HOV, HURC, ITW, ILMN, INFN, IIIN, NVTA, JAZZ, KMT, KFRC, LDOS, MTRN, MGEE, MUR, NBR, NOV, NTGR, JWN, OXY, OLN, OTEX, PANW, PYPL, PPL, PRU, RNG, RLI, RCKY, CRM, SLB, SEE, SO, SR, SXI, SRDX, TFX, TKR, RIG, TG, UNM, VFC, VLO, VEEV, V, WAT, WMB, XEL, IEZ, IHF, IGE, IEO, EWO, ECH, EWQ, EIS, EWS, EZA, EWP, IBB, DBA, PBE, PXJ, PJP, UNG. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

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The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day’s high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences),
the area might act as support or resistance.

— Thomas Bulkowski

Wednesday 8/3/22. A Look At Indicators

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

I mentioned in the first pic of the updated forecast that the index looked as if it might retrace (according to the CPI line). We see that today.

The indicator turned bearish as demonstrated by the vertical red line on the far right of the chart. I don’t expect this to be a reversal, just a retrace of a few days to a week or so duration. But, it’s a bearish signal.

The red line is the percentage of stocks at least 20% below their 1-year high (plotted upside down). The blue line is the average percentage drop of stocks below their 1-year high (plotted upside down).

Both lines show improvement from a week ago. But if the above CPI chart is correct, then look for market weakness.

As I mentioned, I expect the market to retrace here, but it could zoom higher on good news or slump on bad news. Which will happen?

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Here’s a symbol list of 114 chart and candlestick patterns (13 “investment grade” candle patterns) found in today’s securities using my version of Patternz:
AXDX, AYI, AFL, ATSG, ALB, ALKS, ALL, AMWD, ABC, ANIK, AIZ, AZTA, BKNG, BRC, BFH, CACI, CPB, CE, CLS, CNP, CENX, CHKP, CHD, CSCO, CLNE, CNA, CNO, CMCO, CTS, DSGR, DOV, DTE, DUK, EMR, WIRE, EQT, EZPW, FDP, IT, EVRG, THG, HAYN, HP, HNI, HON, HURC, IDA, ITW, INCY, INFN, NSP, IIIN, IPAR, ISRG, IVC, JBLU, K, KMT, LDOS, L, M, MNDT, MRO, MTRN, MTRX, MOS, MYGN, NFG, NJR, NWL, NUS, OXY, ASGN, OXM, PANW, PETS, PFE, POR, KWR, ROST, SAIC, SO, SR, SXI, SRDX, TFX, TKR, RIG, TG, VFC, WU, WLK, WMB, XEL, EWK, ECH, EWH, GLD, XHB. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

— Thomas Bulkowski

Tuesday 8/2/22. 2022 Forecast Update

Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:

     The prediction of the Dow closing higher has been right 249/445 or 56.0% of the time.

     The prediction of the Dow closing lower has been right 47/98 or 48.0% of the time.

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Here’s the updated 2022 forecast, presented in slider format.

Based on sector performance from Fidelity, the best performing sectors for year-to-date performance as of 1 August 2022 were…
(The numbering is how they ranked a month ago.)

1. Energy (+42%)

2. Utilities (3%)

3. Consumer staples (-4%)

4. Health care (-6%)

5. Industrials (-10%)

6. Materials (-14%)

7. Financials (-14%)

8. Real estate (-15%)

9. Information technology (-17%)

11. Consumer discretionary (-20%)

10. Communication services (-28%)

The folks at two firms polled by Fidelity weigh the sectors in this order, as of 8/1/22.

1. Information technology (IT)

2. Health care

3. Consumer discretionary

4. Financials

5. Communication services

6. Industrials

7. Consumer staples

8. Energy

9. Utilities

10. Real estate

11. Materials

Here’s how they rank the industries, but only the top 10 appear. One-year change, as of 7/29. The numbering is how they ranked a month ago.

2. Oil, gas and consumable fuels (+62%)

1. Construction and engineering (+55%)

3. Energy equipment and services (+27%)

New. Automobiles (+27%)

4. Health care providers and services (+22%)

6. Multi-utilities (+15%)

10. Food products (13%)

7. Beverages (+12%)

New. Technology hardware, and storage (11%)

New. Electric utilities (11%)

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Here’s a symbol list of 98 chart and candlestick patterns (13 “investment grade” candle patterns) found in today’s securities using my version of Patternz:
DDD, APD, ALKS, DOX, AMWD, ANIK, BBBY, BIO, BMRN, BA, BAH, BRC, BLDR, CALM, CHKP, CTXS, CNA, CL, CSGS, CTS, DDS, ^DJT, DOV, DUK, EMR, WIRE, EVH, EZPW, FIS, FMC, FDP, GILD, THG, HAYN, HNI, HON, ITW, NSP, IBP, IVC, KBAL, KMB, LANC, LDOS, LEN, LLY, LMT, MTSI, MTRN, MTRX, MDT, NCR, NTGR, NTAP, NEE, NUS, ASGN, OMI, OXM, PFE, POR, KWR, RGS, ROST, SMTC, SHW, SKX, SWX, SXI, SSYS, SUM, TPR, TGT, TECH, TEVA, TMO, TKR, VFC, WAT, WWW, XEL, ITA, IYK, SLV, EWJ, EWL, TUR, XLP, XLU. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

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The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day’s high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences),
the area might act as support or resistance.

— Thomas Bulkowski

Monday 8/1/22. Market Monday: The Week Ahead

My Prediction

I show the S&P 500 index on the daily scale.

The index soared through a down-sloping trendline, shows here as a red straight line.

At AB, the index formed an ugly double bottom. It confirmed at C when the index closed above the peak between the two lows.

How high will the index climb? My guess is to the level of the circled area at D. The index has made a strong push higher and at D there’s a knot of resistance. That combination suggests the index will
hit that resistance and drop.

A Brief Look Back

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

Monday: Up 90.75 points.

Tuesday: Down 228.5 points.

Wednesday: Up 436.05 points.

Thursday: Up 332.04 points.

Friday: Up 315.5 points.

For the Week…

The Dow industrials were up 945.84 points or 3.0%.

The Nasdaq composite was up 556.58 points or 4.7%.

The S&P 500 index was up 168.66 points or 4.3%.

Year to Date…

Dow Industrials

     11.1% down from the high of 36,952.65 on 01/05/2022.

     10.8% up from the low of 29,653.29 on 06/17/2022.

Nasdaq

     21.8% down from the high of 15,852.14 on 01/04/2022.

     17.3% up from the low of 10,565.14 on 06/16/2022.

S&P 500

     14.3% down from the high of 4,818.62 on 01/04/2022.

     13.6% up from the low of 3,636.87 on 06/17/2022.

Options Expiration

No options expire this week.

Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, “Take a
two-dimensional approach.” He offers these tips.

• Seekinger doesn’t look at the range of S2 to R2 as support and resistance levels. Rather, he considers them oversold (S) and overbought (R) areas.
• S2 to R2 range of values across daily, weekly, and monthly periods: If two values are close together then they lend more significance to the area.
• If the market trends on day 1, the odds rise tremendously that the market will be range bound between daily S1 and daily R1 the next day.
• In a quiet market when traders are waiting for an important earnings announcement or economic report, look for daily R1 and S1 levels to hold and for the market to return to the daily pivot.
• A move outside of daily R1 or S1 usually does not mean a breakout.
• The odds suggest that the entire week’s price action will remain between weekly R2 and S2.
• Avoid going long when the market moves above weekly R2 (it’s overbought) and avoid going short when price moves below weekly S2 (oversold).
• Consider going short at weekly R1 or long at weekly S1 with a profit objective of the weekly pivot.
• Consider going long at weekly S2 or short at weekly R2 with a profit objective of weekly S1 or R1, respectively.

Here are the formulas:

Pivot point: P = (H + L + C)/3

First resistance level: R1 = (2 * P) – L

First support level: S1 = (2 * P) – H)

Second resistance level: R2 = P + (R1 – S1)

Second support level: S2 = P – (R1 – S1)

H = high price , L=low price, C=closing price

Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season is either underway or should be starting soon. The sessions could be more volatile.

Here’s a symbol list of 134 chart and candlestick patterns (13 “investment grade” candle patterns) found in today’s securities using my version of Patternz:
DDD, ACN, APD, AMZN, DOX, AEL, AMN, AON, AAPL, ARW, ADP, BMI, BCPC, BSET, BAX, BECN, BERY, BIO, BMRN, BAH, BBW, BLDR, CALM, CNC, CVX, CHS, CINF, CTXS, CNO, CGNX, CMTL, COP, CCRN, CSGS, CTS, DOV, DTE, DUK, EMN, EBAY, EIX, EMR, WIRE, EVH, XOM, EZPW, FICO, FIVN, GNW, GILD, HLIT, HIG, HAYN, HSY, HON, ITW, TILE, IPG, IVC, JAZZ, KLIC, LLY, MTSI, MRTN, MLM, MTRN, MTRX, MUR, NBR, ^IXIC, NOV, OGE, ORI, ASGN, PTEN, PRFT, PLXS, POR, PRU, KWR, DGX, RMBS, RNG, RLI, ^GSPC, SAIC, SEIC, SO, SXI, SUM, TECH, TMO, TKR, RIG, TRV, SLCA, UPS, VFC, VRTX, VMC, WAT, XEL, IYM, IYC, IYE, FXI, IGE, IYF, EWO, ECH, EWQ, EWG, EWI, EWD, TUR, PJP, IEV, IXC, MXI, XLY, XLE, XLF, XLB, VAW, MGK. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

The below industries were the best (rank 1) or worst performing of those I follow.

— Thomas Bulkowski