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Trading Quiz Tuesday: Blyth (BTH)…

Blog: July 2021

Bulkowski's Blog: ThePatternSite.com

As of 08/05/2021

  Indus: 35,064 +271.58 +0.8%  

  Trans: 14,423 +179.23 +1.3%  

  Utils: 931 +11.56 +1.3%  

  Nasdaq: 14,895 +114.59 +0.8%  

  S&P 500: 4,429 +26.44 +0.6%  

YTD

 +14.6%  

 +15.3%  

 +7.6%  

 +15.6%  

 +17.9%  

  Up arrow35,750 or 33,850 by 08/15/2021
  Up arrow15,400 or 13,600 by 08/15/2021
  Up arrow950 or 875 by 08/15/2021
  Up arrow15,500 or 14,100 by 08/15/2021
  Up arrow4,500 or 4,300 by 08/15/2021

As of 08/05/2021

  Indus: 35,064 +271.58 +0.8%  

  Trans: 14,423 +179.23 +1.3%  

  Utils: 931 +11.56 +1.3%  

  Nasdaq: 14,895 +114.59 +0.8%  

  S&P 500: 4,429 +26.44 +0.6%  

YTD

 +14.6%  

 +15.3%  

 +7.6%  

 +15.6%  

 +17.9%  

  Up arrow35,750 or 33,850 by 08/15/2021
  Up arrow15,400 or 13,600 by 08/15/2021
  Up arrow950 or 875 by 08/15/2021
  Up arrow15,500 or 14,100 by 08/15/2021
  Up arrow4,500 or 4,300 by 08/15/2021

 


Friday 8/6/21. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

$ $ $

Here’s a symbol list of 104 chart and candlestick patterns (13 “investment grade” candle patterns) found in today’s securities using my version of Patternz:
DDD, AYI, ADTN, ALL, DOX, AMED, AIG, ABC, APOG, AIZ, BLL, BERY, BKH, BKNG, BRKS, CX, CNC, CENX, CRL, CL, CMTL, CCRN, CTS, DHR, XRAY, ^DJT, ^DJI, DUK, EBAY, WIRE, EPAM, EZPW, FB, FDS, FOE, FLEX, FLS, FMC, FORM, FRD, GIS, GPRO, GGG, HBI, HOLX, HD, HUBG, NSP, IVC, JBLU, KELYA, KLIC, LH, LRCX, LAMR, LANC, LLY, LMT, MRO, MCHX, MRTN, MTRN, MRK, MLHR, MYGN, NCR, NEE, NUS, NVDA, OMC, POR, DGX, SMG, SEIC, SRE, SMTC, SCCO, SCS, SSYS, SRDX, TER, VC, WMT, WDAY, IYC, IDU, IAT, SLV, EWA, EWK, EWH, EWP, THD, PEJ, USO. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

The following patterns were found manually, not using Patternz. Mr. Bulkowski has excluded any securities he owns from appearing in the list. However, he may add any of the securities listed to his portfolio at any time, just as you can.

There were 25 patterns found this week (excluding pipe bottoms; pipe tops and bottoms are found looking back 2 weeks) out of 574 stocks searched, or 4.4%. Based on the percentage, the stock market is
trending
since few consolidation patterns appear.

I found 1 pipe bottom chart patterns, which is neutral. High numbers of pipe bottoms can signal a bullish move (I see many of them just before a bear market ends or during a bear market rally. Often it means the first bottom of a double bottom has formed. Thus, expect a move down to the second bottom).

Excluding ETFs, there were 15 bullish chart patterns this week and 3 bearish ones with any remaining (8) being undecided.
The ratio of bullish to bearish patterns suggests the market is hinting of a coming bullish (up) turn.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

For details about the chart patterns, click here.

— Thomas Bulkowski

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 Symbol  Chart Pattern  Bullish 
 Bearish 
Start End Industry
AMED Dead-cat bounce        08/05/2021 08/05/2021 Medical Services
AMAT Broadening top        06/04/2021 08/02/2021 Semiconductor Cap Equip.
BECN Roof, inverted        06/24/2021 08/05/2021 Retail Building Supply
BRKS Triangle, ascending        07/12/2021 08/05/2021 Semiconductor Cap Equip.
CENX Dead-cat bounce        08/05/2021 08/05/2021 Metals and Mining (Div.)
CHS Triangle, symmetrical        06/18/2021 08/05/2021 Apparel
CINF Rectangle bottom        06/18/2021 08/05/2021 Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
DFS Triangle, ascending        07/08/2021 08/03/2021 Financial Services
D Triangle, symmetrical        07/14/2021 08/05/2021 Electric Utility (East)
FORM Broadening bottom        06/04/2021 08/05/2021 Semiconductor
GIS Double Top, Adam and Adam        07/27/2021 08/03/2021 Food Processing
HOLX Rounding bottom        04/19/2021 08/04/2021 Medical Supplies
KLIC Triangle, ascending        07/14/2021 08/04/2021 Semiconductor Cap Equip.
LXU Flag, high and tight        07/19/2021 08/02/2021 Building Materials
MRO Broadening top, right-angled and descending        07/21/2021 08/05/2021 Petroleum (Integrated)
MCHX Double Bottom, Adam and Adam        07/27/2021 08/03/2021 Advertising
MTRN Pipe bottom        07/19/2021 07/26/2021 Metals and Mining (Div.)
NEE Rounding bottom        04/16/2021 08/05/2021 Electric Utility (East)
OGE Roof, inverted        06/28/2021 08/05/2021 Electric Utility (Central)
DGX Rounding bottom        05/10/2021 07/30/2021 Medical Services
RGA Head-and-shoulders complex bottom        07/08/2021 08/03/2021 Insurance (Life)
SWX Triangle, symmetrical        07/16/2021 08/02/2021 Natural Gas (Distributor)
SSYS Head-and-shoulders bottom        07/19/2021 08/03/2021 Electronics
TXN Roof, inverted        06/29/2021 08/05/2021 Semiconductor
WSM Triangle, symmetrical        05/27/2021 08/05/2021 Retail (Special Lines)
XEL Triangle, symmetrical        07/19/2021 08/05/2021 Electric Utility (West)

 

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Thursday 8/5/21. Intraday Market Direction: Nasdaq

The index climbed by 0.1% or 19.24 points. Since 02/05/1971 the index made 719 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day’s…

     Average gain was 0.6% on 400 occasions.

     Average loss was -0.8% on 319 occasions.

Expect the index to close higher 55.6% of the time.

Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:

     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 223/390 or 57.2% of the time.

     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 58/122 or 47.5% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5 minute scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5-minute scale.

What caught my eye first was the red trendline. I thought it would connect the bottoms nicely, but it didn’t. I had to warp it so it’s a curving trendline (A).

At B, a small double bottom appears. This confirms when the index closes above the peak between the two bottoms. Price continues to rise far enough to exceed the measure
rule target. The measure rule is the height of the pattern added to (or for downward breakouts…subtracted from) the breakout price.

At C we see a small double top. This one also confirms but barely declines to its measure rule target.

Now look at that big dip at B. It’s well below the trendline A. If you measure the distance from the trendline down to B and add it to D, you’ll get close to C. In other words, the big trendline drop can
mirror a rise above the trendline (once it recovers). It’s a way of helping you determine another price target. In this case, it works (or almost does).

$ $ $

Here’s a symbol list of 99 chart and candlestick patterns (13 “investment grade” candle patterns) found in today’s securities using my version of Patternz:
DDD, ALKS, DOX, AEO, AMGN, ADM, AVNT, BBBY, BKH, BRKS, BBW, BG, CALM, CHKP, CSCO, CGNX, CMTL, COTY, CROX, CSGS, CTS, XRAY, ^DJI, DRQ, EBAY, WIRE, XOM, FB, FDS, FIS, FMC, FORM, GIS, GL, GES, HSC, HQY, HL, HSY, HOLX, JBHT, INCY, ISRG, IVC, KBAL, KLAC, LANC, LDOS, LMT, MRO, MRTN, MLM, MTRN, MRK, MUR, NOV, NEE, PTEN, PETS, PNW, RJF, RGA, RCKY, SMG, SMTC, SKX, TER, TZOO, TG, UNM, IEZ, IHE, ICF, IYZ, SOXX, SLV, EWA, EWG, EWI, EWW, EWS, EWY, EWD, EWL, EWT, TUR, EWU, PBE, PXJ, XAR, UNG, SMH. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day’s high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences),
the area might act as support or resistance.

— Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2021 ThePatternSite.com    Metric   Value   Diff   Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2   13,919.96      
 Monthly S1   14,350.24   430.29   
 Weekly S2   14,356.09   5.85   Yes! The Weekly S2 is close to the Monthly S1.
 Weekly S1   14,568.31   212.22   
 Monthly Pivot   14,606.95   38.64   
 Daily S2   14,697.42   90.48   
 Weekly Pivot   14,715.98   18.56   
 Low   14,734.12   18.14   
 Daily S1   14,738.98   4.86   Yes! The Daily S1 is close to the Low.
 Open   14,747.21   8.23   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High   14,764.01   16.80   
 50% Down from Intraday High   14,773.25   9.23   
 Daily Pivot   14,775.67   2.43   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 50% Down from Intraday High.
 Close   14,780.53   4.86   Yes! The Close is close to the Daily Pivot.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High   14,782.48   1.95   Yes! The 38.2% Down from Intraday High is close to the Close.
 High   14,812.37   29.89   
 Daily R1   14,817.23   4.86   Yes! The Daily R1 is close to the High.
 Daily R2   14,853.92   36.70   
 Weekly R1   14,928.20   74.28   
 Monthly R1   15,037.23   109.03   
 Weekly R2   15,075.87   38.64   
 Monthly R2   15,293.94   218.07   


Wednesday 8/4/21. A Look At Indicators

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

The indicator took a slight dip during this past week but it recovered. However the wave can change for up to a week, so the analysis might be flawed. It does suggests
that the only direction left is to drop. And that would be bad for the market.

Of course, it’s a market drop that’s going to pull the indicator down, not the other way around. Regardless, a bullish signal remains intact on this chart.

Picture of the percent down indicators

The red line is the percentage of stocks at least 20% below their 1-year high (plotted upside down). The blue line is the average percentage drop of stocks below their 1-year high (plotted upside down).

Shown as a red line on the above chart…

On Tuesday, 20% of stocks in my database are in bear market territory (down at least 20% from their 1-year high).

A week ago, it was 23%.

The fewest was 8% on 03/15/2021.

And the most was 58% on 09/23/2020.

Shown as a blue line on the above chart…

The 464 stocks in my database are down an average of 12% from their yearly high.

A week ago, the average was 13%.

The peak was 8% on 03/15/2021.

And the bottom was 27% on 09/23/2020.

The more sensitive of the two lines, which is the red one, is still trying to recover from the large drop in mid July.

Both the red and blue lines report progress in turning more bullish than they were a week ago.

Together, the two charts are bullish. The CPI can go sideways but it’s likely to see the market drop in the coming weeks. This chart shows there a lot of upward potential left.
It sounds like a contradiction. Maybe it means we’ll retrace in the short term (a week or two) but resume climbing going into September.

$ $ $

Here’s a symbol list of 109 chart and candlestick patterns (13 “investment grade” candle patterns) found in today’s securities using my version of Patternz:
DDD, ATSG, ADS, DOX, AEO, AEL, ADM, BCPC, BKH, BBW, CALM, CLS, CX, CENX, CHKP, CVX, CLX, CMTL, CTS, XRAY, DDS, EBAY, XOM, FFIV, FB, FDS, FAST, FIS, FISV, FIVN, IT, GIS, GPN, GPRO, THG, HLIT, HQY, HP, HOLX, IIIN, IBKR, IPI, LANC, LEG, LNC, M, MRO, MTRN, MUR, MYGN, NFG, NEE, NI, NOC, OMI, PANW, PTEN, PNW, PEG, QCOM, DGX, RL, RMBS, RJF, RGS, RGA, RES, SAIA, SLB, SMG, SEE, SMTC, SHW, SKX, SWN, SRDX, TFX, TDC, RIG, TREX, UGI, UNM, VLO, WAT, WSO, WU, WMB, ITA, IYE, IEZ, IDU, IYZ, EWO, EWZ, EEM, EPP, PXJ, PHO, XLE, XAR. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

— Thomas Bulkowski

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Tuesday 8/3/21. Slider Trading Quiz! Blyth: BTH

The index dropped by -0.3% or -97.31 points. Since 10/01/1928 the index made 1065 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day’s…

     Average gain was 0.5% on 503 occasions.

     Average loss was -0.7% on 562 occasions.

Expect the index to close lower 52.8% of the time.

Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:

     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 228/405 or 56.3% of the time.

     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 42/87 or 48.3% of the time.

$ $ $

I show another slider trading quiz featuring Blyth: BTH.

$ $ $

Here’s a symbol list of 149 chart and candlestick patterns (13 “investment grade” candle patterns) found in today’s securities using my version of Patternz:
AXDX, ADBE, ADTN, APD, ATSG, AA, ALKS, ADS, AMZN, AEL, AFG, AIG, APOG, AWI, AIZ, AVNT, BCPC, BAH, EPAY, BRC, BG, CBT, COG, CDNS, CALM, CAL, CE, CLS, CVX, CLNE, CLF, CNA, CAG, CLR, GLW, CR, CROX, CCRN, CSGS, DHR, DDS, ^DJT, EBAY, EMR, EFX, RE, FB, FDS, FAST, FIS, FE, FISV, FMC, FORM, FWRD, FDP, FRD, GE, GPN, GS, GFF, GES, THG, HQY, HSY, HOLX, HD, HON, HOV, ITGR, IVC, KFRC, LOW, LXU, M, MAN, MRTN, MA, MTRN, MOS, MLI, MYGN, NTGR, NWL, NXGN, NKE, NVDA, ASGN, OUT, PKG, PYPL, PFE, PICO, PLXS, QCOM, DGX, RNG, ROST, ^GSPC, SMG, SLGN, TGT, TFX, TDC, TXT, TMO, TJX, TOL, TG, VLO, VMI, WERN, WU, IYM, IAI, IYC, IHE, DDM, FDN, IYZ, SOXX, EWO, EWK, EWZ, EWC, EWG, EIS, EWD, EWL, TUR, PHO, ROBO, SSO, XLP, XLI, XLB, SPY, SMH, VIS, VAW. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day’s high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences),
the area might act as support or resistance.

— Thomas Bulkowski

Top

© 2021 ThePatternSite.com    Metric   Value   Diff   Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2   33,154.05      
 Monthly S1   33,996.11   842.05   
 Daily S2   34,562.25   566.14   
 Monthly Pivot   34,583.81   21.57   Yes! The Monthly Pivot is close to the Daily S2.
 Weekly S2   34,659.88   76.07   
 Daily S1   34,700.20   40.32   
 Weekly S1   34,749.02   48.82   
 Low   34,808.20   59.18   
 Close   34,838.16   29.96   Yes! The Close is close to the Low.
 Daily Pivot   34,946.16   108.00   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High   34,954.86   8.70   Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 Weekly Pivot   34,960.27   5.41   Yes! The Weekly Pivot is close to the 61.8% Down from Intraday High.
 Open   34,968.56   8.29   Yes! The Open is close to the Weekly Pivot.
 50% Down from Intraday High   35,000.16   31.60   Yes! The 50% Down from Intraday High is close to the Open.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High   35,045.46   45.30   
 Weekly R1   35,049.41   3.95   Yes! The Weekly R1 is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High.
 Daily R1   35,084.11   34.70   Yes! The Daily R1 is close to the Weekly R1.
 High   35,192.11   108.00   
 Weekly R2   35,260.66   68.55   
 Daily R2   35,330.07   69.41   
 Monthly R1   35,425.87   95.80   
 Monthly R2   36,013.57   587.71   


Monday 8/2/21. 2021 Forecast Update

My Prediction

Here’s the updated 2021 forecast for August, presented in slider format.

Based on sector performance from Fidelity, the best performing sectors for one-year performance as of 29 July 2021 were…
(The numbering is how they ranked a month ago.)

2. Financials (+53%)

4. Communication services (+46%)

6. Information technology (+45%)

5. Industrials (+45%)

7. Materials (+37%)

1. Energy (+36%)

9. Consumer discretionary (+32%)

3. Real estate (+30%)

8. Health care (+25%)

10. Consumer staples (+15%)

11. Utilities (+10%)

This month, someone shook up the list, but it’s really not that bad. The prior list was year to date and this is for a full year. That means the prior month’s ranking if muffed up.

The folks at two firms polled by Fidelity weigh the sectors in this order.

1. Information technology

2. Health care

3. Consumer discretionary

5. Communication services

4. Financials

6. Industrials

7. Consumer staples

10. Real estate

8. Energy

9. Materials

11. Utilities

This month we see communication services and real estate moving up.

Here’s how they rank the industries, but only the top 10 appear. One-year change, as of 7/29. The numbering is how they ranked a month ago but that was based on year-to-date performance.
This list is for full year performance.

3. Real estate management and development (128%)

2. Consumer finance (+112%)

(new). Auto components (+82%)

(new). Construction and engineering (+76%)

7. Building products (73%)

(new). Personal products (72%)

(new). Textiles, apparel and luxury goods (71%)

(new). Multiline retail (62%)

(new). Construction materials (61%)

9. Banks (+61%)

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A Brief Look Back

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

Monday: Up 82.76 points.

Tuesday: Down 85.79 points.

Wednesday: Down 127.59 points.

Thursday: Up 153.6 points.

Friday: Down 149.06 points.

For the Week…

The Dow industrials were down 126.08 points or 0.4%.

The Nasdaq composite was down 164.31 points or 1.1%.

The S&P 500 index was down 16.53 points or 0.4%.

Year to Date…

Dow Industrials

     0.7% down from the high of 35,171.52 on 07/29/2021.

     17.0% up from the low of 29,856.30 on 01/29/2021.

Nasdaq

     1.3% down from the high of 14,863.65 on 07/26/2021.

     18.4% up from the low of 12,397.05 on 03/05/2021.

S&P 500

     0.8% down from the high of 4,429.97 on 07/29/2021.

     20.0% up from the low of 3,662.71 on 01/04/2021.

Options Expiration

No options expire this week.

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Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, “Take a
two-dimensional approach.” He offers these tips.

Index S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2
Dow Industrials (^DJI): Daily   34,736   34,836   34,971   35,071   35,206 
Weekly   34,692   34,814   34,993   35,114   35,293 
Monthly   33,186   34,061   34,616   35,491   36,046 
S&P500 (^GSPC): Daily   4,376   4,386   4,399   4,408   4,422 
Weekly   4,342   4,369   4,399   4,426   4,457 
Monthly   4,156   4,276   4,353   4,472   4,550 
Nasdaq (^IXIC): Daily   14,560   14,616   14,672   14,729   14,785 
Weekly   14,320   14,496   14,680   14,856   15,040 
Monthly   13,884   14,278   14,571   14,965   15,258 
  • Seekinger doesn’t look at the range of S2 to R2 as support and resistance levels. Rather, he considers them oversold (S) and overbought (R) areas.
  • S2 to R2 range of values across daily, weekly, and monthly periods: If two values are close together then they lend more significance to the area.
  • If the market trends on day 1, the odds rise tremendously that the market will be range bound between daily S1 and daily R1 the next day.
  • In a quiet market when traders are waiting for an important earnings announcement or economic report, look for daily R1 and S1 levels to hold and for the market to return to the daily pivot.
  • A move outside of daily R1 or S1 usually does not mean a breakout.
  • The odds suggest that the entire week’s price action will remain between weekly R2 and S2.
  • Avoid going long when the market moves above weekly R2 (it’s overbought) and avoid going short when price moves below weekly S2 (oversold).
  • Consider going short at weekly R1 or long at weekly S1 with a profit objective of the weekly pivot.
  • Consider going long at weekly S2 or short at weekly R2 with a profit objective of weekly S1 or R1, respectively.

Here are the formulas:

Pivot point: P = (H + L + C)/3

First resistance level: R1 = (2 * P) – L

First support level: S1 = (2 * P) – H)

Second resistance level: R2 = P + (R1 – S1)

Second support level: S2 = P – (R1 – S1)

H = high price , L=low price, C=closing price

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Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season is either underway or should be starting soon. The sessions could be more volatile.

Here’s a symbol list of 76 chart and candlestick patterns (13 “investment grade” candle patterns) found in today’s securities using my version of Patternz:
AXDX, ATSG, AKAM, AA, ADS, AMZN, AEP, AXP, AIG, ANIK, APOG, AVNT, AVA, BIO, BKH, BAH, EPAY, BG, CDNS, CAL, CRL, CVX, CLX, CL, CLR, COST, CROX, CCRN, CSGS, DECK, XRAY, RE, XOM, FISV, GS, HOLX, HON, HOV, ITGR, IPAR, JCOM, KMT, KLAC, LH, LAWS, MA, MDT, MGEE, MLI, NVDA, OUT, PDCO, PYPL, PETS, PG, PEG, DGX, RL, RLI, SRE, TPR, TDC, TOL, VFC, IAI, EWK, EWZ, EWL, DBA, XLV. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

The below industries were the best (rank 1) or worst performing of those I follow.

This Week Last Week
1. Shoe 1. Retail (Special Lines)
2. Petroleum (Producing) 2. Petroleum (Producing)
3. Human Resources 3. Shoe
4. Securities Brokerage 4. Computers and Peripherals
5. Computers and Peripherals 5. Retail Store
6. Apparel 6. Advertising
7. Advertising 7. Financial Services
8. Homebuilding 8. Human Resources
9. Cement and Aggregates 9. Information Services
10. Information Services 10. Securities Brokerage
Best Performing Above Worst Performing Below
50. Electric Utility (Central) 50. Metal Fabricating
51. Chemical (Basic) 51. Metals and Mining (Div.)
52. Electronics 52. Chemical (Basic)
53. Electric Utility (East) 53. Household Products
54. Investment Co. (Foreign) 54. Investment Co. (Foreign)
55. Telecom. Equipment 55. Semiconductor
56. Retail (Special Lines) 56. Electronics
57. Household Products 57. Healthcare Information
58. Healthcare Information 58. Telecom. Equipment
59. Chemical (Specialty) 59. Chemical (Specialty)
60. Short ETFs 60. Short ETFs

— Thomas Bulkowski

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