As of 11/11/2021 Indus: 35,921 -158.71 -0.4% Trans: 16,708 +120.45 +0.7% Utils: 910 -6.78 -0.7% Nasdaq: 15,704 +81.57 +0.5% S&P 500: 4,649 +2.56 +0.1% |
YTD +17.4% +33.6% +5.3% +21.8% +23.8% |
38,000 or 35,800 by 12/01/2021
15,350 or 16,500 by 11/15/2021
950 or 900 by 11/15/2021
16,250 or 15,400 by 11/15/2021
4,800 or 4,500 by 11/15/2021
|
As of 11/11/2021 Indus: 35,921 -158.71 -0.4% Trans: 16,708 +120.45 +0.7% Utils: 910 -6.78 -0.7% Nasdaq: 15,704 +81.57 +0.5% S&P 500: 4,649 +2.56 +0.1% |
YTD +17.4% +33.6% +5.3% +21.8% +23.8% |
|
38,000 or 35,800 by 12/01/2021
15,350 or 16,500 by 11/15/2021
950 or 900 by 11/15/2021
16,250 or 15,400 by 11/15/2021
4,800 or 4,500 by 11/15/2021
|
||
Friday 11/12/21. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.
$ $ $
Here’s a symbol list of 122 chart and candlestick patterns (13 “investment grade” candle patterns) found in today’s securities using my version of Patternz:
DDD, MMM, AES, APD, AKAM, AA, AMED, AEP, AEL, ATR, AIZ, AXS, BZH, BIO, BKNG, BMY, BBW, BG, CNC, CENX, CF, CINF, CLF, CMCO, GLW, CTS, DDS, ^DJU, EXP, EPAM, EQT, EL, EZPW, FIS, FE, FISV, FLEX, FWRD, GD, HBI, THG, HELE, HP, HSIC, HNI, HD, HURC, ILMN, IIIN, ISRG, IVC, JKHY, KELYA, KBAL, LMT, MAN, MA, MTRX, MRK, FB, MCO, MUR, ^IXIC, NFG, CNR, NCR, NFLX, OUT, PTEN, PYPL, PLXS, RNG, RCKY, ROST, SEE, SCCO, SWN, SRDX, TPR, TECH, TPX, TEVA, TXN, TMO, TJX, TG, V, VC, WU, IYC, FXI, BOTZ, IYH, EWA, EWO, EWK, EWZ, EWC, EEM, EWQ, EWJ, EWM, EWS, EZA, EWY, EWD, EWU, PPA, IXN, ILF, MXI, XLE, VHT, MGK. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).
For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.
$ $ $
You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.
The following patterns were found manually, not using Patternz. Mr. Bulkowski has excluded any securities he owns from appearing in the list. However, he may add any of the securities listed to his portfolio at any time, just as you can.
In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.
For details about the chart patterns, click here.
— Thomas Bulkowski
Symbol | Chart Pattern | Bullish Bearish |
Start | End | Industry |
AYI | Scallop, ascending | 10/18/2021 | 11/09/2021 | Furn/Home Furnishings | |
ADTN | Scallop, ascending | 10/15/2021 | 11/05/2021 | Telecom. Equipment | |
AES | Pipe top | 10/25/2021 | 11/01/2021 | Electric Utility (East) | |
AEO | Pennant | 11/08/2021 | 11/11/2021 | Apparel | |
AEP | Double Top, Eve and Eve | 10/22/2021 | 11/03/2021 | Electric Utility (Central) | |
ACGL | Double Top, Eve and Eve | 10/27/2021 | 11/08/2021 | Insurance (Prop/Casualty) | |
AVY | Rectangle top | 04/29/2021 | 11/11/2021 | Packaging and Container | |
BRC | Flag | 11/08/2021 | 11/11/2021 | Chemical (Diversified) | |
BRKS | Scallop, ascending | 09/27/2021 | 11/09/2021 | Semiconductor Cap Equip. | |
CNP | Broadening top, right-angled and descending | 10/15/2021 | 11/11/2021 | Electric Utility (Central) | |
CF | Pipe bottom | 10/25/2021 | 11/01/2021 | Chemical (Basic) | |
DHR | Double Top, Adam and Adam | 10/20/2021 | 11/01/2021 | Precision Instrument | |
DDS | Flag, high and tight | 10/01/2021 | 11/11/2021 | Retail Store | |
^DJT | Flag | 11/03/2021 | 11/08/2021 | None | |
EZPW | Pipe bottom | 10/25/2021 | 11/01/2021 | Financial Services | |
FE | Cup with handle | 09/02/2021 | 11/11/2021 | Electric Utility (East) | |
FRD | Diamond top | 10/20/2021 | 11/10/2021 | Building Materials | |
GPS | Pennant | 11/05/2021 | 11/11/2021 | Apparel | |
GILD | Broadening wedge, descending | 10/06/2021 | 11/10/2021 | Biotechnology | |
HOV | Triangle, symmetrical | 10/11/2021 | 11/11/2021 | Homebuilding | |
IDA | Ugly double bottom | 10/11/2021 | 10/28/2021 | Electric Utility (West) | |
ITGR | Broadening top, right-angled and ascending | 09/20/2021 | 11/11/2021 | Electronics | |
TILE | Three Rising Valleys | 08/19/2021 | 10/29/2021 | Furn/Home Furnishings | |
NVTA | Dead-cat bounce | 11/09/2021 | 11/09/2021 | Medical Services | |
JNJ | Diamond top | 10/21/2021 | 11/11/2021 | Medical Supplies | |
KLAC | Scallop, ascending | 09/23/2021 | 11/08/2021 | Semiconductor Cap Equip. | |
LEN | Ugly double bottom | 10/06/2021 | 10/29/2021 | Homebuilding | |
PKG | Roof | 10/19/2021 | 11/11/2021 | Packaging and Container | |
RJF | Triangle, symmetrical | 10/21/2021 | 11/11/2021 | Securities Brokerage | |
RGA | Double Top, Adam and Adam | 10/15/2021 | 11/03/2021 | Insurance (Life) | |
TPR | Cup with handle | 08/12/2021 | 11/10/2021 | Apparel | |
TPX | Pipe top | 10/18/2021 | 10/25/2021 | Furn/Home Furnishings | |
TOL | Head-and-shoulders bottom | 09/15/2021 | 11/01/2021 | Homebuilding | |
WLK | Diamond top | 10/07/2021 | 11/10/2021 | Chemical (Basic) | |
WSM | Scallop, ascending | 10/22/2021 | 11/03/2021 | Retail (Special Lines) | |
IHI | Roof | 10/21/2021 | 11/11/2021 | Medical Supplies |
Thursday 11/11/21. Intraday Market Direction: Nasdaq
Average gain was 1.2% on 39 occasions.
Average loss was -1.3% on 44 occasions.
Expect the index to close lower 53.0% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 232/401 or 57.9% of the time.
The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 59/124 or 47.6% of the time.
Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.
$ $ $
I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5-minute scale.
I drew three horizontal red lines to highlight something unusual. Let’s look at line A.
Starting from the right, the index touches the line twice, so the line shows support. But if you look to the left, the line touches the index in the middle of a straight-line run up. In other
words, that location shows support later, but not last Thursday. However, we know that the middle of a run like you see here can be a location of support or resistance (future support in this case).
Line B shows support on the right but not on the left. If we consider that support and resistance are ranges and not distinct points, then we can infer that support is shown below line A,
on the left, where the index moves sideways a week ago on Wednesday.
Finally, I show the bottom line, C. I drew this from today’s (Wednesday’s) bottom, backward to a week ago Monday. There is some support shown on that Monday.
Looking forward, what will happen? My guess is the index will rebound. It’s already started moving higher near the end of today’s session, but the 3-day trend is still downward. So it’s
hard to tell what will happen. Normally, the trend will continue (down) and trying to call when it’ll reverse is difficult at best. However, I think the fear of inflation is overblown and that
fear represents a short-term buying opportunity. Clearly, though, the turn I’m calling could be premature. Indeed, the index could continue lower for the rest of this week and could
start a recovery next week.
$ $ $
Here’s a symbol list of 135 chart and candlestick patterns (13 “investment grade” candle patterns) found in today’s securities using my version of Patternz:
DDD, MMM, AXDX, ACIW, AES, ALB, ALKS, ANTM, ATR, ARW, ASH, AIZ, AVNT, AXS, BCPC, BIO, BKH, BKNG, BRKS, BG, CBT, CACI, CE, CNC, CF, CINF, CSCO, CMCO, CLR, GLW, CR, CTS, DOV, EXP, EQT, EL, RE, EZPW, FIS, FE, FISV, FLEX, GME, GD, GS, EVRG, HL, HP, HSY, ILMN, INFN, INOV, IPAR, ISRG, KLIC, L, MHO, MNDT, MAN, MCHX, MA, MTRX, MRK, FB, MCO, MOS, MLI, MUR, NCR, NFLX, PTEN, PRFT, PLXS, PG, DGX, RGS, RNG, RCKY, ROST, ^GSPC, SLB, SWN, SR, SRDX, TECH, TPX, TEVA, TMO, TKR, TG, UNM, VC, WAT, WERN, IYM, IAI, IDU, FTEC, BOTZ, IHF, SLV, EWA, EWO, EWK, EWC, EEM, EWI, EWJ, EWM, EPP, EWS, EWY, EWP, DBA, PJP, ROBO, IXN, ILF, XLE, GLD, XLK, UNG. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).
For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.
$ $ $
The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day’s high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences),
the area might act as support or resistance.
— Thomas Bulkowski
© 2021 ThePatternSite.com Metric | Value | Diff | Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? |
Monthly S2 | 13,603.99 | ||
Monthly S1 | 14,613.35 | 1,009.36 | |
Weekly S2 | 15,133.07 | 519.72 | |
Monthly Pivot | 15,333.37 | 200.30 | |
Daily S2 | 15,354.32 | 20.95 | Yes! The Daily S2 is close to the Monthly Pivot. |
Weekly S1 | 15,377.89 | 23.57 | Yes! The Weekly S1 is close to the Daily S2. |
Daily S1 | 15,488.51 | 110.62 | |
Low | 15,543.68 | 55.17 | |
Close | 15,622.71 | 79.03 | |
61.8% Down from Intraday High | 15,667.28 | 44.57 | |
Daily Pivot | 15,677.88 | 10.60 | Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 61.8% Down from Intraday High. |
50% Down from Intraday High | 15,705.46 | 27.58 | Yes! The 50% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot. |
Weekly Pivot | 15,715.64 | 10.18 | Yes! The Weekly Pivot is close to the 50% Down from Intraday High. |
38.2% Down from Intraday High | 15,743.64 | 28.00 | Yes! The 38.2% Down from Intraday High is close to the Weekly Pivot. |
Open | 15,753.84 | 10.20 | Yes! The Open is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High. |
Daily R1 | 15,812.07 | 58.23 | |
High | 15,867.24 | 55.17 | |
Weekly R1 | 15,960.46 | 93.22 | |
Daily R2 | 16,001.44 | 40.98 | |
Weekly R2 | 16,298.21 | 296.77 | |
Monthly R1 | 16,342.73 | 44.52 | |
Monthly R2 | 17,062.75 | 720.02 |
Wednesday 11/10/21. A Look At Indicators
This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.
I drew red lines A and B to highlight what I believe is bearish divergence. That’s when the indicator (the CPI line in this case) trends lower even as the
index rises.
We see that in this chart. It suggests the index is going down but this type of divergence can last for months. I’ve also written about this recently, so I’ve been waiting for the market
to turn lower. Maybe we’re seeing the weakness I expected happening now.
It’s really too soon to tell and it’s at the time of year that the indices should be gathering strength to power higher. I also expect that, meaning a higher close by year end.
The red line is the percentage of stocks at least 20% below their 1-year high (plotted upside down). The blue line is the average percentage drop of stocks below their 1-year high (plotted upside down).
On Tuesday, 21% of stocks in my database are in bear market territory (down at least 20% from their 1-year high).
A week ago, it was 25%.
The fewest was 8% on 03/15/2021.
And the most was 39% on 11/12/2020.
The 460 stocks in my database are down an average of 12% from their yearly high.
A week ago, the average was 13%.
The peak was 8% on 03/15/2021.
And the bottom was 20% on 11/12/2020.
Since the start of November, both lines (especially the more sensitive red one) have made a strong move upward. Very nice.
If you believe that a trend in motion tends to stay in motion, then look for the upward rise to continue.
Sounds like a contradiction, doesn’t it (the prior chart warns of the index dropping while this chart is strong)? One of the charts might be right unless the market moves sideways in which
case both charts will be wrong. In the short term (days to a week, maybe two), the market might be weak. After that, it’ll recover and move higher. That’s my guess.
$ $ $
Here’s a symbol list of 136 chart and candlestick patterns (13 “investment grade” candle patterns) found in today’s securities using my version of Patternz:
AJRD, AES, ALB, AEO, ATR, ASH, AIZ, AXS, BBBY, BIO, BRKS, BG, CBT, CACI, CE, CNC, CF, CINF, CTXS, CLX, CNO, CMCO, GLW, COTY, CTS, DECK, DDS, DOV, EXP, EL, RE, EZPW, FIS, FE, FISV, FIVN, FLEX, FMC, GME, GE, GNW, GS, GES, HBI, HL, HELE, HP, HSIC, DHI, INFN, INOV, ISRG, IVC, NVTA, KLIC, MHO, M, MAN, MCHX, MA, MTRN, MTRX, MDC, MRK, FB, MCO, CNR, NCR, NFLX, NTAP, NI, NUS, OUT, PKG, PTEN, PYPL, PRFT, PCG, PLXS, PRU, QCOM, SLB, SCHW, SEE, SWN, SR, SCS, SRDX, TECH, TFX, TPX, TEVA, TOL, TG, TREX, VC, WSO, WOLF, ZBRA, IHI, FTEC, BOTZ, IYH, IHF, EWO, EWK, ECH, EEM, EZA, EWY, EWT, IBB, ROBO, IXN, XLY, XLE, GLD, XRT, XLK, UNG, VAW. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).
For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.
— Thomas Bulkowski
Tuesday 11/9/21. Slider Trading Quiz! Eagle Materials (2)
Average gain was 0.7% on 619 occasions.
Average loss was -0.6% on 504 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 55.1% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 232/415 or 55.9% of the time.
The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 43/90 or 47.8% of the time.
$ $ $
I show another slider trading quiz featuring Eagle Materials: EXP 2
$ $ $
Here’s a symbol list of 154 chart and candlestick patterns (13 “investment grade” candle patterns) found in today’s securities using my version of Patternz:
DDD, AXDX, ACIW, AYI, ADTN, AMD, AJRD, AA, ADS, AEE, AEP, AXP, AMWD, ANIK, ASH, ADP, AVA, AXS, BERY, BBY, BRKS, BG, CBT, CAL, CF, CINF, COTY, CRH, CROX, CCK, CTS, DVN, DTE, EXP, EBAY, WIRE, EQT, EL, EVH, XOM, FE, FLEX, GME, EVRG, GES, HLIT, HELE, HSIC, HOV, IDA, ILMN, INCY, INOV, IIIN, TILE, ISRG, JAZZ, JBLU, KBH, KMB, LAMR, LXU, M, MAS, MTRN, FB, MLI, MUR, NFG, CNR, NTGR, NJR, NEE, NI, NWPX, OGE, OLN, OUT, PKG, PATK, PDCO, PYPL, PETS, PLXS, POR, PEG, ROK, CRM, SRE, SO, SR, TDOC, TPX, TXT, TZOO, TG, UGI, UNM, VLO, VMI, V, VC, WOLF, XEL, ZBRA, IYM, IYK, IYE, IEO, IDU, FXI, IYZ, SLV, IGE, EWA, EWO, EWK, EWC, EWQ, EWS, EWT, THD, TUR, PBE, XLP, XLE, GLD, XLB, XLU, UNG, VAW. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).
For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.
$ $ $
The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day’s high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences),
the area might act as support or resistance.
— Thomas Bulkowski
© 2021 ThePatternSite.com Metric | Value | Diff | Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? |
Monthly S2 | 32,868.29 | ||
Monthly S1 | 34,650.26 | 1,781.96 | |
Weekly S2 | 35,551.54 | 901.28 | |
Monthly Pivot | 35,567.50 | 15.97 | Yes! The Monthly Pivot is close to the Weekly S2. |
Weekly S1 | 35,991.88 | 424.37 | |
Daily S2 | 36,212.81 | 220.94 | |
Weekly Pivot | 36,238.31 | 25.50 | |
Daily S1 | 36,322.52 | 84.20 | |
Low | 36,334.42 | 11.91 | Yes! The Low is close to the Daily S1. |
Open | 36,416.46 | 82.04 | |
61.8% Down from Intraday High | 36,422.78 | 6.32 | Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Open. |
Close | 36,432.22 | 9.44 | Yes! The Close is close to the 61.8% Down from Intraday High. |
Daily Pivot | 36,444.13 | 11.91 | Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the Close. |
50% Down from Intraday High | 36,450.07 | 5.95 | Yes! The 50% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot. |
38.2% Down from Intraday High | 36,477.37 | 27.30 | |
Daily R1 | 36,553.83 | 76.46 | |
High | 36,565.73 | 11.90 | Yes! The High is close to the Daily R1. |
Daily R2 | 36,675.43 | 109.70 | |
Weekly R1 | 36,678.66 | 3.22 | Yes! The Weekly R1 is close to the Daily R2. |
Weekly R2 | 36,925.09 | 246.44 | |
Monthly R1 | 37,349.46 | 424.37 | |
Monthly R2 | 38,266.71 | 917.25 |
Monday 11/8/21. Market Monday: The Week Ahead
My Prediction
I show the Nasdaq composite on the daily scale.
There’s a measure rule for trendlines, which I describe at the link. It says that the rise from the trendline to the composite at A (vertical blue line)
will mirror the drop from the trendline to B (another blue line).
The composite failed to meet or exceed the B target.
Is this an example of the Nasdaq showing strength? Yes. That’s apparent because the index made a straight-line run up to C (but the rise to C could also be coincidence. I haven’t checked
if this really happens often).
Notice that price bar C touches the yellow trendline which touches A and the top of the composite to the left of A. Line AC is one of overhead resistance.
Will the composite continue higher, blowing through resistance or will it turn down? Maybe it’ll move sideways for a spell in a kind of horizontal retrace before advancing again.
I didn’t think of running a Fibonacci extension on this to show where the composite might turn down according to the numbers, so that’s another ingredient poured into the mix.
What’s my take? I think the Nasdaq has farther to rise before beginning a retrace. That’s just a guess, however.
A Brief Look Back
The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.
Monday: Up 94.28 points.
Tuesday: Up 138.79 points.
Wednesday: Up 104.95 points.
Thursday: Down 33.35 points.
Friday: Up 203.72 points.
For the Week…
The Dow industrials were up 508.39 points or 1.4%.
The Nasdaq composite was up 473.2 points or 3.1%.
The S&P 500 index was up 92.15 points or 2.0%.
Year to Date…
Dow Industrials
0.4% down from the high of 36,484.75 on 11/05/2021.
21.7% up from the low of 29,856.30 on 01/29/2021.
Nasdaq
0.5% down from the high of 16,053.39 on 11/05/2021.
28.8% up from the low of 12,397.05 on 03/05/2021.
S&P 500
0.4% down from the high of 4,718.50 on 11/05/2021.
28.3% up from the low of 3,662.71 on 01/04/2021.
Options Expiration
No options expire this week.
Swing Traders: Pivot Points
The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, “Take a
two-dimensional approach.” He offers these tips.
Index | S2 | S1 | Pivot | R1 | R2 |
Dow Industrials (^DJI): Daily | 36,040 | 36,184 | 36,334 | 36,478 | 36,629 |
Weekly | 35,517 | 35,922 | 36,204 | 36,609 | 36,890 |
Monthly | 32,834 | 34,581 | 35,533 | 37,280 | 38,232 |
S&P500 (^GSPC): Daily | 4,662 | 4,680 | 4,699 | 4,717 | 4,736 |
Weekly | 4,547 | 4,622 | 4,670 | 4,746 | 4,794 |
Monthly | 4,138 | 4,418 | 4,568 | 4,848 | 4,998 |
Nasdaq (^IXIC): Daily | 15,823 | 15,897 | 15,975 | 16,050 | 16,128 |
Weekly | 15,249 | 15,610 | 15,832 | 16,193 | 16,415 |
Monthly | 13,720 | 14,846 | 15,450 | 16,575 | 17,179 |
- Seekinger doesn’t look at the range of S2 to R2 as support and resistance levels. Rather, he considers them oversold (S) and overbought (R) areas.
- S2 to R2 range of values across daily, weekly, and monthly periods: If two values are close together then they lend more significance to the area.
- If the market trends on day 1, the odds rise tremendously that the market will be range bound between daily S1 and daily R1 the next day.
- In a quiet market when traders are waiting for an important earnings announcement or economic report, look for daily R1 and S1 levels to hold and for the market to return to the daily pivot.
- A move outside of daily R1 or S1 usually does not mean a breakout.
- The odds suggest that the entire week’s price action will remain between weekly R2 and S2.
- Avoid going long when the market moves above weekly R2 (it’s overbought) and avoid going short when price moves below weekly S2 (oversold).
- Consider going short at weekly R1 or long at weekly S1 with a profit objective of the weekly pivot.
- Consider going long at weekly S2 or short at weekly R2 with a profit objective of weekly S1 or R1, respectively.
Here are the formulas:
Pivot point: P = (H + L + C)/3
First resistance level: R1 = (2 * P) – L
First support level: S1 = (2 * P) – H)
Second resistance level: R2 = P + (R1 – S1)
Second support level: S2 = P – (R1 – S1)
H = high price , L=low price, C=closing price
Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries
Earnings season is either underway or should be starting soon. The sessions could be more volatile.
Mutual funds will begin dividend distributions and rebalancing their portfolios for the approaching year end (starts in late November).
Here’s a symbol list of 143 chart and candlestick patterns (13 “investment grade” candle patterns) found in today’s securities using my version of Patternz:
DDD, ACN, ADTN, AFL, APD, ALK, AA, ALL, AMED, AXP, AMN, APH, ARCB, ADP, AXS, BMI, BECN, BBBY, BAH, BMY, BRKS, BG, CNC, CNP, CF, CLNE, CMCO, CCRN, DHR, ^DJI, DOV, EBAY, EIX, EOG, EPAM, EL, EVH, EXPD, FFIV, FE, FLEX, FLS, FTNT, GD, GPRO, HELE, HOLX, HD, HUBG, JBHT, HURC, ILMN, INFN, IIIN, TILE, IPI, INTU, NVTA, JBLU, KALU, KFRC, KBAL, RAMP, LMT, MANH, MAS, MTRX, FB, MCO, MOS, OXY, ASGN, OUT, OXM, PAYX, PFE, PG, PEG, DGX, REV, RLI, ROK, ROST, SAIA, LUV, SWX, SWN, SXI, TPX, TDC, TXN, TJX, TZOO, TG, VLO, VC, VMC, WAT, WDAY, ITA, IYK, IYC, IHI, IEO, DDM, FXI, IGV, SOXX, IGE, EWO, EWK, EWQ, EWI, EWJ, EWW, EWT, DBA, PEJ, IXC, ILF, MXI, XLY, XLP, XLE, XLI, XAR, VIS. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).
For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.
The below industries were the best (rank 1) or worst performing of those I follow.
|
— Thomas Bulkowski
Friday 11/5/21. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.
$ $ $
Here’s a symbol list of 142 chart and candlestick patterns (13 “investment grade” candle patterns) found in today’s securities using my version of Patternz:
DDD, MMM, AXDX, ACIW, ADBE, ADTN, AMD, ALRM, ALB, AA, AMZN, AEP, AXP, AMN, APA, ACGL, ASH, AVA, AXS, BAX, BECN, BBY, BKH, BRKS, BG, CDNS, CENX, CF, CRL, CHS, CHD, CLNE, GLW, COST, CR, CCRN, DDS, DOV, DRQ, DTE, EMN, EBAY, FDX, FOE, FE, FLS, FMC, FRD, GNW, HIG, HL, HUBG, IEX, INFN, IIIN, IVC, NVTA, KBAL, LNC, RAMP, LOW, MANH, MAN, MCHX, FB, MGEE, ^IXIC, NCR, NTGR, NWL, NEU, NXGN, NVDA, OXY, ORI, OMC, PAYX, PYPL, PRFT, PFE, PNW, PG, QCOM, RGS, RLI, RHI, RCKY, RES, SRE, SWN, SCS, SSYS, SUM, TECH, TPX, TDC, TRV, TZOO, VLO, VRSN, WLK, IYC, IHI, IEZ, FTEC, FDN, QTEC, FXL, FXI, BOTZ, IHF, SOXX, IGE, EWK, EWJ, EWL, EWU, QLD, PBE, PEJ, QQQ, PHO, ROBO, XLY, XLE, XLI, XAR, SMH, VIS. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).
For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.
$ $ $
You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.
The following patterns were found manually, not using Patternz. Mr. Bulkowski has excluded any securities he owns from appearing in the list. However, he may add any of the securities listed to his portfolio at any time, just as you can.
In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.
For details about the chart patterns, click here.
— Thomas Bulkowski
Symbol | Chart Pattern | Bullish Bearish |
Start | End | Industry |
DDD | Rounding bottom | 09/02/2021 | 11/04/2021 | Electronics | |
ADBE | Ugly double bottom | 10/04/2021 | 10/28/2021 | Computer Software and Svcs | |
ADTN | Pipe bottom | 10/18/2021 | 10/25/2021 | Telecom. Equipment | |
AEO | Double Bottom, Eve and Eve | 10/05/2021 | 10/29/2021 | Apparel | |
AXP | Pipe top | 10/18/2021 | 10/25/2021 | Financial Services | |
ABC | Triangle, ascending | 09/30/2021 | 11/01/2021 | Biotechnology | |
ANTM | Rounding bottom | 07/13/2021 | 10/14/2021 | Medical Services | |
APA | Three Rising Valleys | 08/19/2021 | 10/29/2021 | Petroleum (Producing) | |
APOG | Three Rising Valleys | 09/21/2021 | 10/20/2021 | Building Materials | |
ATO | Triangle, ascending | 10/14/2021 | 11/04/2021 | Natural Gas (Diversified) | |
BCPC | Three Rising Valleys | 08/13/2021 | 10/29/2021 | Chemical (Specialty) | |
BECN | Ugly double bottom | 10/06/2021 | 10/27/2021 | Retail Building Supply | |
BIG | Pipe bottom | 09/27/2021 | 10/04/2021 | Retail Store | |
BG | Cup with handle | 06/07/2021 | 11/03/2021 | Food Processing | |
CLS | Ugly double bottom | 09/20/2021 | 09/29/2021 | Electronics | |
CL | Double Bottom, Adam and Eve | 10/06/2021 | 10/25/2021 | Household Products | |
ED | Double Bottom, Adam and Adam | 10/04/2021 | 10/18/2021 | Electric Utility (East) | |
CSGS | Three Rising Valleys | 06/08/2021 | 09/28/2021 | IT Services | |
XRAY | Triple bottom | 10/06/2021 | 10/27/2021 | Medical Supplies | |
^DJU | Diamond top | 10/21/2021 | 11/01/2021 | None | |
XOM | Broadening top | 03/11/2021 | 10/26/2021 | Petroleum (Integrated) | |
FMC | Pipe bottom | 10/04/2021 | 10/11/2021 | Chemical (Basic) | |
FDP | Triple top | 10/15/2021 | 11/01/2021 | Food Processing | |
FRD | Cup with handle | 08/23/2021 | 11/04/2021 | Building Materials | |
GPS | Triple bottom | 10/11/2021 | 10/27/2021 | Apparel | |
HLIT | Head-and-shoulders bottom | 09/20/2021 | 10/26/2021 | Telecom. Equipment | |
HSC | Dead-cat bounce | 11/02/2021 | 11/02/2021 | Diversified Co. | |
HP | Cup with handle | 07/01/2021 | 11/04/2021 | Petroleum (Producing) | |
HSY | Double Top, Adam and Eve | 10/15/2021 | 10/22/2021 | Food Processing | |
IIIN | Pipe bottom | 10/18/2021 | 10/25/2021 | Building Materials | |
IPI | Dead-cat bounce | 11/02/2021 | 11/02/2021 | Chemical (Diversified) | |
K | Double Bottom, Eve and Eve | 10/19/2021 | 10/27/2021 | Food Processing | |
LH | Triple bottom | 10/06/2021 | 10/18/2021 | Medical Services | |
LANC | Triple top | 10/07/2021 | 10/26/2021 | Food Processing | |
RAMP | Scallop, ascending | 10/15/2021 | 11/03/2021 | Computer Software and Svcs | |
M | Scallop, ascending | 10/18/2021 | 11/03/2021 | Retail Store | |
MTRN | Head-and-shoulders bottom | 08/26/2021 | 10/21/2021 | Metals and Mining (Div.) | |
MS | Rectangle top | 08/06/2021 | 11/04/2021 | Securities Brokerage | |
NJR | Triangle, ascending | 10/15/2021 | 11/04/2021 | Natural Gas (Distributor) | |
NWL | Double Bottom, Eve and Adam | 10/06/2021 | 10/28/2021 | Household Products | |
JWN | Big W | 09/13/2021 | 10/06/2021 | Retail Store | |
NVDA | Three Rising Valleys | 07/19/2021 | 10/04/2021 | Semiconductor | |
OUT | Scallop, ascending and inverted | 09/10/2021 | 10/28/2021 | Advertising | |
OXM | Head-and-shoulders complex bottom | 08/19/2021 | 10/27/2021 | Apparel | |
PG | Double Bottom, Eve and Eve | 10/04/2021 | 10/19/2021 | Household Products | |
KWR | Double Bottom, Adam and Eve | 09/20/2021 | 10/13/2021 | Chemical (Specialty) | |
RCKY | Dead-cat bounce | 11/03/2021 | 11/03/2021 | Shoe | |
RES | Double Top, Eve and Eve | 10/11/2021 | 10/27/2021 | Oilfield Svcs/Equipment | |
SMG | Pipe bottom | 09/13/2021 | 09/20/2021 | Chemical (Basic) | |
SSYS | Flag, high and tight | 10/01/2021 | 11/04/2021 | Electronics | |
TPR | Double Bottom, Adam and Eve | 09/30/2021 | 10/08/2021 | Apparel | |
TDOC | Head-and-shoulders bottom | 09/16/2021 | 10/28/2021 | Healthcare Information | |
TZOO | Pipe top | 10/18/2021 | 10/25/2021 | Internet | |
ZBRA | Ugly double bottom | 10/11/2021 | 10/27/2021 | Computers and Peripherals |
Thursday 11/4/21. Bitcoin: BTC-USD
Average gain was 0.7% on 160 occasions.
Average loss was -1.1% on 89 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 64.3% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 231/400 or 57.7% of the time.
The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 59/124 or 47.6% of the time.
Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.
$ $ $
I tried to show bitcoin on the weekly scale, but my software didn’t cooperate. So this is on the daily scale.
What I wanted to illustrate was overhead resistance setup by a prior peak. At D, you can see the coin bounced off overhead resistance (setup by a peak off the chart), and turned down for
another try at a new high (to the right of D).
I drew two red trendlines on the chart. The coin is moving higher following those two trendlines. If the coin behaves like a stock, it should bounce off the top trendline (which it has, at D)
and head lower. It’s attempting to do just that but it looks like it’s going to make another try for a new high.
A chart pattern called a measured move up, highlighted here by ABCD. After the pattern completes, you often see price return to the corrective phase of the pattern.
That means a drop back to within BC. With the coin looking to head toward the top red trendline, it might break to a new high instead of retracing.
$ $ $
Here’s a symbol list of 149 chart and candlestick patterns (13 “investment grade” candle patterns) found in today’s securities using my version of Patternz:
AXDX, ADTN, AJRD, ALRM, ALB, ALL, DOX, AMED, AEO, AEP, AXP, AFG, AIG, ANIK, APA, AWI, ARW, ATO, AVNT, AXS, BAX, BECN, BZH, BBBY, BBY, BMY, BRKS, BLDR, BG, CDNS, CE, CNC, CRL, CHKP, CINF, CRH, CROX, CSGS, DDS, EBAY, FDX, FOE, FE, FMC, FRD, GPS, GNW, GPRO, HBI, HQY, HSIC, HNI, HOLX, INCY, NSP, IBP, IIIN, TILE, IPG, KELYA, KBAL, KSS, KLIC, LZB, LAWS, LDOS, M, MCHX, MTRX, FB, MGEE, MLKN, MLI, NFLX, NJR, NEE, NKE, JWN, NUS, OLN, OMI, PKE, PTEN, PFE, PCG, PINC, PG, KWR, RGS, RGA, REV, RLI, RCKY, ROST, SCHW, SMG, SWX, SCS, TPR, TFX, TPX, TZOO, UNM, VLO, WMT, WAT, WERN, WSM, XLNX, IYK, IYC, ITB, FXI, ICF, IAT, IGE, EWO, EWK, EWC, EWJ, EWS, EWL, THD, TUR, PBE, ROBO, IXC, XLE, GLD, XHB, VHT. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).
For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.
$ $ $
The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day’s high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences),
the area might act as support or resistance.
— Thomas Bulkowski
© 2021 ThePatternSite.com Metric | Value | Diff | Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? |
Monthly S2 | 14,033.13 | ||
Monthly S1 | 14,922.35 | 889.23 | |
Weekly S2 | 15,028.78 | 106.43 | |
Monthly Pivot | 15,213.24 | 184.46 | |
Weekly S1 | 15,420.18 | 206.94 | |
Weekly Pivot | 15,462.15 | 41.97 | |
Daily S2 | 15,544.73 | 82.58 | |
Low | 15,616.44 | 71.71 | |
Open | 15,658.52 | 42.08 | |
Daily S1 | 15,678.16 | 19.64 | Yes! The Daily S1 is close to the Open. |
61.8% Down from Intraday High | 15,694.80 | 16.64 | Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily S1. |
50% Down from Intraday High | 15,719.00 | 24.21 | |
38.2% Down from Intraday High | 15,743.21 | 24.21 | |
Daily Pivot | 15,749.86 | 6.65 | Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High. |
Close | 15,811.58 | 61.72 | |
High | 15,821.57 | 9.99 | Yes! The High is close to the Close. |
Weekly R1 | 15,853.55 | 31.98 | |
Daily R1 | 15,883.29 | 29.74 | |
Weekly R2 | 15,895.52 | 12.23 | Yes! The Weekly R2 is close to the Daily R1. |
Daily R2 | 15,954.99 | 59.47 | |
Monthly R1 | 16,102.46 | 147.47 | |
Monthly R2 | 16,393.35 | 290.88 |
Wednesday 11/3/21. A Look At Indicators
This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.
Last week I wrote about bearish divergence shown between the indicator and the composite. In this chart, we see the indicator reaching or approaching its upward limit (100) before backing off
and the composite making a new high.
Indeed, today (Tuesday), the CPI dropped a bit from 90% to 81.5%. The indicator remains bullish.
The red line is the percentage of stocks at least 20% below their 1-year high (plotted upside down). The blue line is the average percentage drop of stocks below their 1-year high (plotted upside down).
On Tuesday, 25% of stocks in my database are in bear market territory (down at least 20% from their 1-year high).
A week ago, it was 26%.
The fewest was 8% on 03/15/2021.
And the most was 46% on 11/03/2020.
The 460 stocks in my database are down an average of 13% from their yearly high.
A week ago, the average was 13%.
The peak was 8% on 03/15/2021.
And the bottom was 22% on 11/03/2020.
The red line is the more sensitive of the two red and blue indicator lines. Today, the red line dipped by one percentage point compared to a week ago. That’s bearish but not alarmingly so.
When you look at this chart, the trend of the red line is downward (bearish). The indicator peaked in March and remains below that peak. However, it has bounced off the low set in September.
We see a bullish CPI (prior) chart that has turned down. This chart has reversed a bearish trend begun in March. Will the markets continue to rise? It’s a complex question to answer.
The historical trend says that the markets will rise going into the new year. These two charts are signaling caution, but it’s mild, and they are bullish. What I’m saying is that the markets
are soft so watch for bearish news sending them lower. If bearish news doesn’t sway the markets, then that’s bullish.
$ $ $
Here’s a symbol list of 140 chart and candlestick patterns (13 “investment grade” candle patterns) found in today’s securities using my version of Patternz:
ABT, ADTN, AEIS, AMD, ALRM, ALB, AEO, AXP, APOG, AAPL, ATR, ATO, ADSK, AVY, AVA, AXS, BCPC, BECN, BZH, BERY, BBY, BKH, BOOT, BRC, BRKS, BG, CE, CIEN, CGNX, CL, EBAY, EL, EXPD, FFIV, FE, FORM, FRD, GPS, GIS, GPN, GS, HLIT, HSC, HE, HELE, HOLX, DHI, HOV, JBHT, IEX, INFN, NSP, IIIN, IPG, IPI, IVC, JBLU, KFRC, KBAL, KLAC, KLIC, LHX, LH, LAWS, LDOS, LEN, RAMP, LMT, MCHX, MLM, MAS, MTRN, MDC, MOS, CNR, NEE, ORI, ASGN, OUT, PKG, PTEN, PICO, POR, PG, PHM, DGX, RGS, ROK, RCKY, ROG, SCHW, SMTC, SLGN, TPX, TOL, TZOO, TREX, UPS, VFC, VLO, VRTX, WRB, WU, ZBRA, IHE, FTEC, QTEC, FXI, BOTZ, IYZ, SLV, IGE, EWA, EWK, EWQ, EWG, EPP, EWL, EWU, ROBO, XLE, VHT, MGK. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).
For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.
— Thomas Bulkowski
Tuesday 11/2/21. Slider Trading Quiz! Eagle Materials
Average gain was 0.7% on 618 occasions.
Average loss was -0.7% on 503 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 55.1% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 231/414 or 55.8% of the time.
The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 43/90 or 47.8% of the time.
$ $ $
I show another slider trading quiz featuring Eagle Materials: EXP 1
$ $ $
Here’s a symbol list of 152 chart and candlestick patterns (13 “investment grade” candle patterns) found in today’s securities using my version of Patternz:
DDD, ABT, ANF, AXDX, ACIW, AEIS, ALRM, ALB, AA, DOX, AEO, ANIK, ANTM, APA, APOG, ATR, ARCB, ADSK, AVA, AXS, BCPC, BERY, BBY, BIO, BKNG, BOOT, BRKS, BG, CLS, CX, CNC, CENX, CLNE, CNA, CGNX, CMTL, CAG, COTY, CRH, CROX, CTS, EPAM, EFX, EZPW, FICO, FOE, FE, FLS, FTNT, FWRD, FRD, GPS, GD, GIS, GNW, GL, GOOGL, HLIT, HP, HD, JBHT, IDXX, ITW, INOV, INTU, JBLU, KBH, KELYA, KBAL, KLIC, LZB, LDOS, LLY, MTSI, M, MAS, MTRN, FB, MGEE, NCR, NXGN, JWN, NWPX, OLN, PDCO, PAYX, POR, PG, PEG, KWR, RJF, REV, ^GSPC, SLB, SCHW, SIGI, NOW, SSYS, SRDX, TECH, TFX, RIG, SLCA, UPS, VLO, WDAY, ITA, IYC, IEO, IEZ, IHE, IDU, FXL, BOTZ, IYZ, IGE, EWO, ECH, EWQ, EIS, EWI, EWM, EWP, EWD, EWL, PPA, DBA, PEJ, PXJ, PJP, ROBO, IXC, XLY, XLE, UNG, VHT. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).
For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.
$ $ $
The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day’s high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences),
the area might act as support or resistance.
— Thomas Bulkowski
© 2021 ThePatternSite.com Metric | Value | Diff | Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? |
Monthly S2 | 33,090.05 | ||
Monthly S1 | 34,501.95 | 1,411.89 | |
Monthly Pivot | 35,197.43 | 695.49 | |
Weekly S2 | 35,363.24 | 165.80 | |
Weekly S1 | 35,638.54 | 275.30 | |
Daily S2 | 35,695.41 | 56.88 | |
Weekly Pivot | 35,765.73 | 70.32 | |
Low | 35,797.97 | 32.24 | |
Daily S1 | 35,804.63 | 6.66 | Yes! The Daily S1 is close to the Low. |
Open | 35,833.65 | 29.02 | |
61.8% Down from Intraday High | 35,878.87 | 45.22 | |
50% Down from Intraday High | 35,903.86 | 24.99 | |
Daily Pivot | 35,907.18 | 3.33 | Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 50% Down from Intraday High. |
Close | 35,913.84 | 6.66 | Yes! The Close is close to the Daily Pivot. |
38.2% Down from Intraday High | 35,928.84 | 15.00 | Yes! The 38.2% Down from Intraday High is close to the Close. |
High | 36,009.74 | 80.89 | |
Daily R1 | 36,016.40 | 6.66 | Yes! The Daily R1 is close to the High. |
Weekly R1 | 36,041.03 | 24.63 | |
Daily R2 | 36,118.95 | 77.92 | |
Weekly R2 | 36,168.22 | 49.27 | |
Monthly R1 | 36,609.33 | 441.11 | |
Monthly R2 | 37,304.81 | 695.48 |
Monday 11/1/21. 2021 Forecast Update
Here’s the updated 2021 forecast for November, presented in slider format.
Based on sector performance from Fidelity, the best performing sectors for one-year performance as of 29 October 2021 were…
(The numbering is how they ranked a month ago.)
1. Energy (+101%)
2. Financials (+67%)
5. Real estate (+40%)
4. Information technology (+38%)
3. Communication services (+36%)
6. Industrials (+35%)
7. Materials (+34%)
9. Consumer discretionary (+28%)
8. Health care (+25%)
10. Consumer staples (+12%)
11. Utilities (+4%)
The folks at two firms polled by Fidelity weigh the sectors in this order.
1. Information technology (IT)
2. Health care
3. Consumer discretionary
5. Financials
4. Communication services
6. Industrials
7. Consumer staples
8. Energy
9. Real estate
10. Materials
11. Utilities
Here’s how they rank the industries, but only the top 10 appear. One-year change, as of 10/29. The numbering is how they ranked a month ago but that was based on year-to-date performance.
This list is for one year performance.
1. Real estate management and development (134%)
4. Energy equipment and services (+105%)
6. Oil, gas and consumable fuels (+100%)
2. Consumer finance (+88%)
3. Construction and engineering (+85%)
5. Banks (+84%)
7. Automobiles (+79%)
8. Capital markets (66%)
9. Auto components (+64%)
10. Communications equipment (53%)
Here’s a symbol list of 88 chart and candlestick patterns (13 “investment grade” candle patterns) found in today’s securities using my version of Patternz:
ABT, AXDX, AEIS, AMD, AA, ADS, AEO, AEL, APOG, ATR, AIZ, AXS, BAX, BECN, BERY, BBY, BRC, BRKS, BG, CX, CENX, CHS, CHD, CSCO, ED, CAG, COTY, CTS, DHR, DRQ, EMN, EBAY, WIRE, EQT, RE, FFIV, FOE, FE, FRD, GNW, GL, GOOGL, HBI, HE, HAYN, HQY, HON, IBP, ITGR, IBKR, KALU, KLAC, LH, LNC, LOW, MTSI, MDT, MYGN, NXGN, NVDA, OLN, PTEN, RJF, RGA, RLI, SWX, SCS, SUM, TGT, TG, UGI, VLO, WRB, FDN, IYZ, SOXX, IGE, EWO, ECH, EEM, EWW, EZA, EWY, THD, PPA, XLE. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).
For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.
The below industries were the best (rank 1) or worst performing of those I follow.
|
— Thomas Bulkowski
Source link