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Trading Quiz Tuesday: Eagle Materials (2)…

Blog: November 2021

Bulkowski's Blog: ThePatternSite.com

As of 11/11/2021

  Indus: 35,921 -158.71 -0.4%  

  Trans: 16,708 +120.45 +0.7%  

  Utils: 910 -6.78 -0.7%  

  Nasdaq: 15,704 +81.57 +0.5%  

  S&P 500: 4,649 +2.56 +0.1%  

YTD

 +17.4%  

 +33.6%  

 +5.3%  

 +21.8%  

 +23.8%  

  Up arrow38,000 or 35,800 by 12/01/2021
  Down arrow15,350 or 16,500 by 11/15/2021
  Up arrow950 or 900 by 11/15/2021
  Up arrow16,250 or 15,400 by 11/15/2021
  Up arrow4,800 or 4,500 by 11/15/2021

As of 11/11/2021

  Indus: 35,921 -158.71 -0.4%  

  Trans: 16,708 +120.45 +0.7%  

  Utils: 910 -6.78 -0.7%  

  Nasdaq: 15,704 +81.57 +0.5%  

  S&P 500: 4,649 +2.56 +0.1%  

YTD

 +17.4%  

 +33.6%  

 +5.3%  

 +21.8%  

 +23.8%  

  Up arrow38,000 or 35,800 by 12/01/2021
  Down arrow15,350 or 16,500 by 11/15/2021
  Up arrow950 or 900 by 11/15/2021
  Up arrow16,250 or 15,400 by 11/15/2021
  Up arrow4,800 or 4,500 by 11/15/2021

 


Friday 11/12/21. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

$ $ $

Here’s a symbol list of 122 chart and candlestick patterns (13 “investment grade” candle patterns) found in today’s securities using my version of Patternz:
DDD, MMM, AES, APD, AKAM, AA, AMED, AEP, AEL, ATR, AIZ, AXS, BZH, BIO, BKNG, BMY, BBW, BG, CNC, CENX, CF, CINF, CLF, CMCO, GLW, CTS, DDS, ^DJU, EXP, EPAM, EQT, EL, EZPW, FIS, FE, FISV, FLEX, FWRD, GD, HBI, THG, HELE, HP, HSIC, HNI, HD, HURC, ILMN, IIIN, ISRG, IVC, JKHY, KELYA, KBAL, LMT, MAN, MA, MTRX, MRK, FB, MCO, MUR, ^IXIC, NFG, CNR, NCR, NFLX, OUT, PTEN, PYPL, PLXS, RNG, RCKY, ROST, SEE, SCCO, SWN, SRDX, TPR, TECH, TPX, TEVA, TXN, TMO, TJX, TG, V, VC, WU, IYC, FXI, BOTZ, IYH, EWA, EWO, EWK, EWZ, EWC, EEM, EWQ, EWJ, EWM, EWS, EZA, EWY, EWD, EWU, PPA, IXN, ILF, MXI, XLE, VHT, MGK. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

The following patterns were found manually, not using Patternz. Mr. Bulkowski has excluded any securities he owns from appearing in the list. However, he may add any of the securities listed to his portfolio at any time, just as you can.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

For details about the chart patterns, click here.

— Thomas Bulkowski

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 Symbol  Chart Pattern  Bullish 
 Bearish 
Start End Industry
AYI Scallop, ascending        10/18/2021 11/09/2021 Furn/Home Furnishings
ADTN Scallop, ascending        10/15/2021 11/05/2021 Telecom. Equipment
AES Pipe top        10/25/2021 11/01/2021 Electric Utility (East)
AEO Pennant        11/08/2021 11/11/2021 Apparel
AEP Double Top, Eve and Eve        10/22/2021 11/03/2021 Electric Utility (Central)
ACGL Double Top, Eve and Eve        10/27/2021 11/08/2021 Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
AVY Rectangle top        04/29/2021 11/11/2021 Packaging and Container
BRC Flag        11/08/2021 11/11/2021 Chemical (Diversified)
BRKS Scallop, ascending        09/27/2021 11/09/2021 Semiconductor Cap Equip.
CNP Broadening top, right-angled and descending        10/15/2021 11/11/2021 Electric Utility (Central)
CF Pipe bottom        10/25/2021 11/01/2021 Chemical (Basic)
DHR Double Top, Adam and Adam        10/20/2021 11/01/2021 Precision Instrument
DDS Flag, high and tight        10/01/2021 11/11/2021 Retail Store
^DJT Flag        11/03/2021 11/08/2021 None
EZPW Pipe bottom        10/25/2021 11/01/2021 Financial Services
FE Cup with handle        09/02/2021 11/11/2021 Electric Utility (East)
FRD Diamond top        10/20/2021 11/10/2021 Building Materials
GPS Pennant        11/05/2021 11/11/2021 Apparel
GILD Broadening wedge, descending        10/06/2021 11/10/2021 Biotechnology
HOV Triangle, symmetrical        10/11/2021 11/11/2021 Homebuilding
IDA Ugly double bottom        10/11/2021 10/28/2021 Electric Utility (West)
ITGR Broadening top, right-angled and ascending        09/20/2021 11/11/2021 Electronics
TILE Three Rising Valleys        08/19/2021 10/29/2021 Furn/Home Furnishings
NVTA Dead-cat bounce        11/09/2021 11/09/2021 Medical Services
JNJ Diamond top        10/21/2021 11/11/2021 Medical Supplies
KLAC Scallop, ascending        09/23/2021 11/08/2021 Semiconductor Cap Equip.
LEN Ugly double bottom        10/06/2021 10/29/2021 Homebuilding
PKG Roof        10/19/2021 11/11/2021 Packaging and Container
RJF Triangle, symmetrical        10/21/2021 11/11/2021 Securities Brokerage
RGA Double Top, Adam and Adam        10/15/2021 11/03/2021 Insurance (Life)
TPR Cup with handle        08/12/2021 11/10/2021 Apparel
TPX Pipe top        10/18/2021 10/25/2021 Furn/Home Furnishings
TOL Head-and-shoulders bottom        09/15/2021 11/01/2021 Homebuilding
WLK Diamond top        10/07/2021 11/10/2021 Chemical (Basic)
WSM Scallop, ascending        10/22/2021 11/03/2021 Retail (Special Lines)
IHI Roof        10/21/2021 11/11/2021 Medical Supplies

 

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Thursday 11/11/21. Intraday Market Direction: Nasdaq

The index dropped by -1.7% or -263.83 points. Since 02/05/1971 the index made 83 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day’s…

     Average gain was 1.2% on 39 occasions.

     Average loss was -1.3% on 44 occasions.

Expect the index to close lower 53.0% of the time.

Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:

     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 232/401 or 57.9% of the time.

     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 59/124 or 47.6% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5 minute scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5-minute scale.

I drew three horizontal red lines to highlight something unusual. Let’s look at line A.

Starting from the right, the index touches the line twice, so the line shows support. But if you look to the left, the line touches the index in the middle of a straight-line run up. In other
words, that location shows support later, but not last Thursday. However, we know that the middle of a run like you see here can be a location of support or resistance (future support in this case).

Line B shows support on the right but not on the left. If we consider that support and resistance are ranges and not distinct points, then we can infer that support is shown below line A,
on the left, where the index moves sideways a week ago on Wednesday.

Finally, I show the bottom line, C. I drew this from today’s (Wednesday’s) bottom, backward to a week ago Monday. There is some support shown on that Monday.

Looking forward, what will happen? My guess is the index will rebound. It’s already started moving higher near the end of today’s session, but the 3-day trend is still downward. So it’s
hard to tell what will happen. Normally, the trend will continue (down) and trying to call when it’ll reverse is difficult at best. However, I think the fear of inflation is overblown and that
fear represents a short-term buying opportunity. Clearly, though, the turn I’m calling could be premature. Indeed, the index could continue lower for the rest of this week and could
start a recovery next week.

$ $ $

Here’s a symbol list of 135 chart and candlestick patterns (13 “investment grade” candle patterns) found in today’s securities using my version of Patternz:
DDD, MMM, AXDX, ACIW, AES, ALB, ALKS, ANTM, ATR, ARW, ASH, AIZ, AVNT, AXS, BCPC, BIO, BKH, BKNG, BRKS, BG, CBT, CACI, CE, CNC, CF, CINF, CSCO, CMCO, CLR, GLW, CR, CTS, DOV, EXP, EQT, EL, RE, EZPW, FIS, FE, FISV, FLEX, GME, GD, GS, EVRG, HL, HP, HSY, ILMN, INFN, INOV, IPAR, ISRG, KLIC, L, MHO, MNDT, MAN, MCHX, MA, MTRX, MRK, FB, MCO, MOS, MLI, MUR, NCR, NFLX, PTEN, PRFT, PLXS, PG, DGX, RGS, RNG, RCKY, ROST, ^GSPC, SLB, SWN, SR, SRDX, TECH, TPX, TEVA, TMO, TKR, TG, UNM, VC, WAT, WERN, IYM, IAI, IDU, FTEC, BOTZ, IHF, SLV, EWA, EWO, EWK, EWC, EEM, EWI, EWJ, EWM, EPP, EWS, EWY, EWP, DBA, PJP, ROBO, IXN, ILF, XLE, GLD, XLK, UNG. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day’s high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences),
the area might act as support or resistance.

— Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2021 ThePatternSite.com    Metric   Value   Diff   Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2   13,603.99      
 Monthly S1   14,613.35   1,009.36   
 Weekly S2   15,133.07   519.72   
 Monthly Pivot   15,333.37   200.30   
 Daily S2   15,354.32   20.95   Yes! The Daily S2 is close to the Monthly Pivot.
 Weekly S1   15,377.89   23.57   Yes! The Weekly S1 is close to the Daily S2.
 Daily S1   15,488.51   110.62   
 Low   15,543.68   55.17   
 Close   15,622.71   79.03   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High   15,667.28   44.57   
 Daily Pivot   15,677.88   10.60   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 61.8% Down from Intraday High.
 50% Down from Intraday High   15,705.46   27.58   Yes! The 50% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 Weekly Pivot   15,715.64   10.18   Yes! The Weekly Pivot is close to the 50% Down from Intraday High.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High   15,743.64   28.00   Yes! The 38.2% Down from Intraday High is close to the Weekly Pivot.
 Open   15,753.84   10.20   Yes! The Open is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High.
 Daily R1   15,812.07   58.23   
 High   15,867.24   55.17   
 Weekly R1   15,960.46   93.22   
 Daily R2   16,001.44   40.98   
 Weekly R2   16,298.21   296.77   
 Monthly R1   16,342.73   44.52   
 Monthly R2   17,062.75   720.02   


Wednesday 11/10/21. A Look At Indicators

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

I drew red lines A and B to highlight what I believe is bearish divergence. That’s when the indicator (the CPI line in this case) trends lower even as the
index rises.

We see that in this chart. It suggests the index is going down but this type of divergence can last for months. I’ve also written about this recently, so I’ve been waiting for the market
to turn lower. Maybe we’re seeing the weakness I expected happening now.

It’s really too soon to tell and it’s at the time of year that the indices should be gathering strength to power higher. I also expect that, meaning a higher close by year end.

Picture of the percent down indicators

The red line is the percentage of stocks at least 20% below their 1-year high (plotted upside down). The blue line is the average percentage drop of stocks below their 1-year high (plotted upside down).

Shown as a red line on the above chart…

On Tuesday, 21% of stocks in my database are in bear market territory (down at least 20% from their 1-year high).

A week ago, it was 25%.

The fewest was 8% on 03/15/2021.

And the most was 39% on 11/12/2020.

Shown as a blue line on the above chart…

The 460 stocks in my database are down an average of 12% from their yearly high.

A week ago, the average was 13%.

The peak was 8% on 03/15/2021.

And the bottom was 20% on 11/12/2020.

Since the start of November, both lines (especially the more sensitive red one) have made a strong move upward. Very nice.

If you believe that a trend in motion tends to stay in motion, then look for the upward rise to continue.

Sounds like a contradiction, doesn’t it (the prior chart warns of the index dropping while this chart is strong)? One of the charts might be right unless the market moves sideways in which
case both charts will be wrong. In the short term (days to a week, maybe two), the market might be weak. After that, it’ll recover and move higher. That’s my guess.

$ $ $

Here’s a symbol list of 136 chart and candlestick patterns (13 “investment grade” candle patterns) found in today’s securities using my version of Patternz:
AJRD, AES, ALB, AEO, ATR, ASH, AIZ, AXS, BBBY, BIO, BRKS, BG, CBT, CACI, CE, CNC, CF, CINF, CTXS, CLX, CNO, CMCO, GLW, COTY, CTS, DECK, DDS, DOV, EXP, EL, RE, EZPW, FIS, FE, FISV, FIVN, FLEX, FMC, GME, GE, GNW, GS, GES, HBI, HL, HELE, HP, HSIC, DHI, INFN, INOV, ISRG, IVC, NVTA, KLIC, MHO, M, MAN, MCHX, MA, MTRN, MTRX, MDC, MRK, FB, MCO, CNR, NCR, NFLX, NTAP, NI, NUS, OUT, PKG, PTEN, PYPL, PRFT, PCG, PLXS, PRU, QCOM, SLB, SCHW, SEE, SWN, SR, SCS, SRDX, TECH, TFX, TPX, TEVA, TOL, TG, TREX, VC, WSO, WOLF, ZBRA, IHI, FTEC, BOTZ, IYH, IHF, EWO, EWK, ECH, EEM, EZA, EWY, EWT, IBB, ROBO, IXN, XLY, XLE, GLD, XRT, XLK, UNG, VAW. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

— Thomas Bulkowski

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Tuesday 11/9/21. Slider Trading Quiz! Eagle Materials (2)

The index climbed by 0.3% or 104.27 points. Since 10/01/1928 the index made 1123 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day’s…

     Average gain was 0.7% on 619 occasions.

     Average loss was -0.6% on 504 occasions.

Expect the index to close higher 55.1% of the time.

Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:

     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 232/415 or 55.9% of the time.

     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 43/90 or 47.8% of the time.

$ $ $

I show another slider trading quiz featuring Eagle Materials: EXP 2

$ $ $

Here’s a symbol list of 154 chart and candlestick patterns (13 “investment grade” candle patterns) found in today’s securities using my version of Patternz:
DDD, AXDX, ACIW, AYI, ADTN, AMD, AJRD, AA, ADS, AEE, AEP, AXP, AMWD, ANIK, ASH, ADP, AVA, AXS, BERY, BBY, BRKS, BG, CBT, CAL, CF, CINF, COTY, CRH, CROX, CCK, CTS, DVN, DTE, EXP, EBAY, WIRE, EQT, EL, EVH, XOM, FE, FLEX, GME, EVRG, GES, HLIT, HELE, HSIC, HOV, IDA, ILMN, INCY, INOV, IIIN, TILE, ISRG, JAZZ, JBLU, KBH, KMB, LAMR, LXU, M, MAS, MTRN, FB, MLI, MUR, NFG, CNR, NTGR, NJR, NEE, NI, NWPX, OGE, OLN, OUT, PKG, PATK, PDCO, PYPL, PETS, PLXS, POR, PEG, ROK, CRM, SRE, SO, SR, TDOC, TPX, TXT, TZOO, TG, UGI, UNM, VLO, VMI, V, VC, WOLF, XEL, ZBRA, IYM, IYK, IYE, IEO, IDU, FXI, IYZ, SLV, IGE, EWA, EWO, EWK, EWC, EWQ, EWS, EWT, THD, TUR, PBE, XLP, XLE, GLD, XLB, XLU, UNG, VAW. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day’s high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences),
the area might act as support or resistance.

— Thomas Bulkowski

Top

© 2021 ThePatternSite.com    Metric   Value   Diff   Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2   32,868.29      
 Monthly S1   34,650.26   1,781.96   
 Weekly S2   35,551.54   901.28   
 Monthly Pivot   35,567.50   15.97   Yes! The Monthly Pivot is close to the Weekly S2.
 Weekly S1   35,991.88   424.37   
 Daily S2   36,212.81   220.94   
 Weekly Pivot   36,238.31   25.50   
 Daily S1   36,322.52   84.20   
 Low   36,334.42   11.91   Yes! The Low is close to the Daily S1.
 Open   36,416.46   82.04   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High   36,422.78   6.32   Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Open.
 Close   36,432.22   9.44   Yes! The Close is close to the 61.8% Down from Intraday High.
 Daily Pivot   36,444.13   11.91   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the Close.
 50% Down from Intraday High   36,450.07   5.95   Yes! The 50% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High   36,477.37   27.30   
 Daily R1   36,553.83   76.46   
 High   36,565.73   11.90   Yes! The High is close to the Daily R1.
 Daily R2   36,675.43   109.70   
 Weekly R1   36,678.66   3.22   Yes! The Weekly R1 is close to the Daily R2.
 Weekly R2   36,925.09   246.44   
 Monthly R1   37,349.46   424.37   
 Monthly R2   38,266.71   917.25   


Monday 11/8/21. Market Monday: The Week Ahead

My Prediction

Picture of the Nasdaq on the daily scale.

I show the Nasdaq composite on the daily scale.

There’s a measure rule for trendlines, which I describe at the link. It says that the rise from the trendline to the composite at A (vertical blue line)
will mirror the drop from the trendline to B (another blue line).

The composite failed to meet or exceed the B target.

Is this an example of the Nasdaq showing strength? Yes. That’s apparent because the index made a straight-line run up to C (but the rise to C could also be coincidence. I haven’t checked
if this really happens often).

Notice that price bar C touches the yellow trendline which touches A and the top of the composite to the left of A. Line AC is one of overhead resistance.

Will the composite continue higher, blowing through resistance or will it turn down? Maybe it’ll move sideways for a spell in a kind of horizontal retrace before advancing again.

I didn’t think of running a Fibonacci extension on this to show where the composite might turn down according to the numbers, so that’s another ingredient poured into the mix.

What’s my take? I think the Nasdaq has farther to rise before beginning a retrace. That’s just a guess, however.

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A Brief Look Back

Picture of a flower from my garden.

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

Monday: Up 94.28 points.

Tuesday: Up 138.79 points.

Wednesday: Up 104.95 points.

Thursday: Down 33.35 points.

Friday: Up 203.72 points.

For the Week…

The Dow industrials were up 508.39 points or 1.4%.

The Nasdaq composite was up 473.2 points or 3.1%.

The S&P 500 index was up 92.15 points or 2.0%.

Year to Date…

Dow Industrials

     0.4% down from the high of 36,484.75 on 11/05/2021.

     21.7% up from the low of 29,856.30 on 01/29/2021.

Nasdaq

     0.5% down from the high of 16,053.39 on 11/05/2021.

     28.8% up from the low of 12,397.05 on 03/05/2021.

S&P 500

     0.4% down from the high of 4,718.50 on 11/05/2021.

     28.3% up from the low of 3,662.71 on 01/04/2021.

Options Expiration

No options expire this week.

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Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, “Take a
two-dimensional approach.” He offers these tips.

Index S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2
Dow Industrials (^DJI): Daily   36,040   36,184   36,334   36,478   36,629 
Weekly   35,517   35,922   36,204   36,609   36,890 
Monthly   32,834   34,581   35,533   37,280   38,232 
S&P500 (^GSPC): Daily   4,662   4,680   4,699   4,717   4,736 
Weekly   4,547   4,622   4,670   4,746   4,794 
Monthly   4,138   4,418   4,568   4,848   4,998 
Nasdaq (^IXIC): Daily   15,823   15,897   15,975   16,050   16,128 
Weekly   15,249   15,610   15,832   16,193   16,415 
Monthly   13,720   14,846   15,450   16,575   17,179 
  • Seekinger doesn’t look at the range of S2 to R2 as support and resistance levels. Rather, he considers them oversold (S) and overbought (R) areas.
  • S2 to R2 range of values across daily, weekly, and monthly periods: If two values are close together then they lend more significance to the area.
  • If the market trends on day 1, the odds rise tremendously that the market will be range bound between daily S1 and daily R1 the next day.
  • In a quiet market when traders are waiting for an important earnings announcement or economic report, look for daily R1 and S1 levels to hold and for the market to return to the daily pivot.
  • A move outside of daily R1 or S1 usually does not mean a breakout.
  • The odds suggest that the entire week’s price action will remain between weekly R2 and S2.
  • Avoid going long when the market moves above weekly R2 (it’s overbought) and avoid going short when price moves below weekly S2 (oversold).
  • Consider going short at weekly R1 or long at weekly S1 with a profit objective of the weekly pivot.
  • Consider going long at weekly S2 or short at weekly R2 with a profit objective of weekly S1 or R1, respectively.

Here are the formulas:

Pivot point: P = (H + L + C)/3

First resistance level: R1 = (2 * P) – L

First support level: S1 = (2 * P) – H)

Second resistance level: R2 = P + (R1 – S1)

Second support level: S2 = P – (R1 – S1)

H = high price , L=low price, C=closing price

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Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season is either underway or should be starting soon. The sessions could be more volatile.

Mutual funds will begin dividend distributions and rebalancing their portfolios for the approaching year end (starts in late November).

Here’s a symbol list of 143 chart and candlestick patterns (13 “investment grade” candle patterns) found in today’s securities using my version of Patternz:
DDD, ACN, ADTN, AFL, APD, ALK, AA, ALL, AMED, AXP, AMN, APH, ARCB, ADP, AXS, BMI, BECN, BBBY, BAH, BMY, BRKS, BG, CNC, CNP, CF, CLNE, CMCO, CCRN, DHR, ^DJI, DOV, EBAY, EIX, EOG, EPAM, EL, EVH, EXPD, FFIV, FE, FLEX, FLS, FTNT, GD, GPRO, HELE, HOLX, HD, HUBG, JBHT, HURC, ILMN, INFN, IIIN, TILE, IPI, INTU, NVTA, JBLU, KALU, KFRC, KBAL, RAMP, LMT, MANH, MAS, MTRX, FB, MCO, MOS, OXY, ASGN, OUT, OXM, PAYX, PFE, PG, PEG, DGX, REV, RLI, ROK, ROST, SAIA, LUV, SWX, SWN, SXI, TPX, TDC, TXN, TJX, TZOO, TG, VLO, VC, VMC, WAT, WDAY, ITA, IYK, IYC, IHI, IEO, DDM, FXI, IGV, SOXX, IGE, EWO, EWK, EWQ, EWI, EWJ, EWW, EWT, DBA, PEJ, IXC, ILF, MXI, XLY, XLP, XLE, XLI, XAR, VIS. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

The below industries were the best (rank 1) or worst performing of those I follow.

This Week Last Week
1. Petroleum (Producing) 1. Petroleum (Producing)
2. Retail Store 2. Precision Instrument
3. Semiconductor 3. Retail Store
4. Shoe 4. Shoe
5. Computer Software and Svcs 5. Trucking/Transp. Leasing
6. Trucking/Transp. Leasing 6. IT Services
7. Computers and Peripherals 7. Petroleum (Integrated)
8. IT Services 8. Computer Software and Svcs
9. Precision Instrument 9. Drug
10. Semiconductor Cap Equip. 10. Securities Brokerage
Best Performing Above Worst Performing Below
50. Medical Services 50. Chemical (Basic)
51. Insurance (Life) 51. Packaging and Container
52. Metal Fabricating 52. Metal Fabricating
53. Financial Services 53. Furn/Home Furnishings
54. Packaging and Container 54. Electric Utility (West)
55. Food Processing 55. Financial Services
56. Electric Utility (West) 56. Short ETFs
57. Apparel 57. Telecom. Equipment
58. Short ETFs 58. Air Transport
59. Air Transport 59. Apparel
60. Homebuilding 60. Homebuilding

— Thomas Bulkowski

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Friday 11/5/21. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

$ $ $

Here’s a symbol list of 142 chart and candlestick patterns (13 “investment grade” candle patterns) found in today’s securities using my version of Patternz:
DDD, MMM, AXDX, ACIW, ADBE, ADTN, AMD, ALRM, ALB, AA, AMZN, AEP, AXP, AMN, APA, ACGL, ASH, AVA, AXS, BAX, BECN, BBY, BKH, BRKS, BG, CDNS, CENX, CF, CRL, CHS, CHD, CLNE, GLW, COST, CR, CCRN, DDS, DOV, DRQ, DTE, EMN, EBAY, FDX, FOE, FE, FLS, FMC, FRD, GNW, HIG, HL, HUBG, IEX, INFN, IIIN, IVC, NVTA, KBAL, LNC, RAMP, LOW, MANH, MAN, MCHX, FB, MGEE, ^IXIC, NCR, NTGR, NWL, NEU, NXGN, NVDA, OXY, ORI, OMC, PAYX, PYPL, PRFT, PFE, PNW, PG, QCOM, RGS, RLI, RHI, RCKY, RES, SRE, SWN, SCS, SSYS, SUM, TECH, TPX, TDC, TRV, TZOO, VLO, VRSN, WLK, IYC, IHI, IEZ, FTEC, FDN, QTEC, FXL, FXI, BOTZ, IHF, SOXX, IGE, EWK, EWJ, EWL, EWU, QLD, PBE, PEJ, QQQ, PHO, ROBO, XLY, XLE, XLI, XAR, SMH, VIS. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

The following patterns were found manually, not using Patternz. Mr. Bulkowski has excluded any securities he owns from appearing in the list. However, he may add any of the securities listed to his portfolio at any time, just as you can.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

For details about the chart patterns, click here.

— Thomas Bulkowski

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 Symbol  Chart Pattern  Bullish 
 Bearish 
Start End Industry
DDD Rounding bottom        09/02/2021 11/04/2021 Electronics
ADBE Ugly double bottom        10/04/2021 10/28/2021 Computer Software and Svcs
ADTN Pipe bottom        10/18/2021 10/25/2021 Telecom. Equipment
AEO Double Bottom, Eve and Eve        10/05/2021 10/29/2021 Apparel
AXP Pipe top        10/18/2021 10/25/2021 Financial Services
ABC Triangle, ascending        09/30/2021 11/01/2021 Biotechnology
ANTM Rounding bottom        07/13/2021 10/14/2021 Medical Services
APA Three Rising Valleys        08/19/2021 10/29/2021 Petroleum (Producing)
APOG Three Rising Valleys        09/21/2021 10/20/2021 Building Materials
ATO Triangle, ascending        10/14/2021 11/04/2021 Natural Gas (Diversified)
BCPC Three Rising Valleys        08/13/2021 10/29/2021 Chemical (Specialty)
BECN Ugly double bottom        10/06/2021 10/27/2021 Retail Building Supply
BIG Pipe bottom        09/27/2021 10/04/2021 Retail Store
BG Cup with handle        06/07/2021 11/03/2021 Food Processing
CLS Ugly double bottom        09/20/2021 09/29/2021 Electronics
CL Double Bottom, Adam and Eve        10/06/2021 10/25/2021 Household Products
ED Double Bottom, Adam and Adam        10/04/2021 10/18/2021 Electric Utility (East)
CSGS Three Rising Valleys        06/08/2021 09/28/2021 IT Services
XRAY Triple bottom        10/06/2021 10/27/2021 Medical Supplies
^DJU Diamond top        10/21/2021 11/01/2021 None
XOM Broadening top        03/11/2021 10/26/2021 Petroleum (Integrated)
FMC Pipe bottom        10/04/2021 10/11/2021 Chemical (Basic)
FDP Triple top        10/15/2021 11/01/2021 Food Processing
FRD Cup with handle        08/23/2021 11/04/2021 Building Materials
GPS Triple bottom        10/11/2021 10/27/2021 Apparel
HLIT Head-and-shoulders bottom        09/20/2021 10/26/2021 Telecom. Equipment
HSC Dead-cat bounce        11/02/2021 11/02/2021 Diversified Co.
HP Cup with handle        07/01/2021 11/04/2021 Petroleum (Producing)
HSY Double Top, Adam and Eve        10/15/2021 10/22/2021 Food Processing
IIIN Pipe bottom        10/18/2021 10/25/2021 Building Materials
IPI Dead-cat bounce        11/02/2021 11/02/2021 Chemical (Diversified)
K Double Bottom, Eve and Eve        10/19/2021 10/27/2021 Food Processing
LH Triple bottom        10/06/2021 10/18/2021 Medical Services
LANC Triple top        10/07/2021 10/26/2021 Food Processing
RAMP Scallop, ascending        10/15/2021 11/03/2021 Computer Software and Svcs
M Scallop, ascending        10/18/2021 11/03/2021 Retail Store
MTRN Head-and-shoulders bottom        08/26/2021 10/21/2021 Metals and Mining (Div.)
MS Rectangle top        08/06/2021 11/04/2021 Securities Brokerage
NJR Triangle, ascending        10/15/2021 11/04/2021 Natural Gas (Distributor)
NWL Double Bottom, Eve and Adam        10/06/2021 10/28/2021 Household Products
JWN Big W        09/13/2021 10/06/2021 Retail Store
NVDA Three Rising Valleys        07/19/2021 10/04/2021 Semiconductor
OUT Scallop, ascending and inverted        09/10/2021 10/28/2021 Advertising
OXM Head-and-shoulders complex bottom        08/19/2021 10/27/2021 Apparel
PG Double Bottom, Eve and Eve        10/04/2021 10/19/2021 Household Products
KWR Double Bottom, Adam and Eve        09/20/2021 10/13/2021 Chemical (Specialty)
RCKY Dead-cat bounce        11/03/2021 11/03/2021 Shoe
RES Double Top, Eve and Eve        10/11/2021 10/27/2021 Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
SMG Pipe bottom        09/13/2021 09/20/2021 Chemical (Basic)
SSYS Flag, high and tight        10/01/2021 11/04/2021 Electronics
TPR Double Bottom, Adam and Eve        09/30/2021 10/08/2021 Apparel
TDOC Head-and-shoulders bottom        09/16/2021 10/28/2021 Healthcare Information
TZOO Pipe top        10/18/2021 10/25/2021 Internet
ZBRA Ugly double bottom        10/11/2021 10/27/2021 Computers and Peripherals

 

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Thursday 11/4/21. Bitcoin: BTC-USD

The index climbed by 1.0% or 161.98 points. Since 02/05/1971 the index made 249 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day’s…

     Average gain was 0.7% on 160 occasions.

     Average loss was -1.1% on 89 occasions.

Expect the index to close higher 64.3% of the time.

Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:

     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 231/400 or 57.7% of the time.

     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 59/124 or 47.6% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the bitcoin.

$ $ $

I tried to show bitcoin on the weekly scale, but my software didn’t cooperate. So this is on the daily scale.

What I wanted to illustrate was overhead resistance setup by a prior peak. At D, you can see the coin bounced off overhead resistance (setup by a peak off the chart), and turned down for
another try at a new high (to the right of D).

I drew two red trendlines on the chart. The coin is moving higher following those two trendlines. If the coin behaves like a stock, it should bounce off the top trendline (which it has, at D)
and head lower. It’s attempting to do just that but it looks like it’s going to make another try for a new high.

A chart pattern called a measured move up, highlighted here by ABCD. After the pattern completes, you often see price return to the corrective phase of the pattern.
That means a drop back to within BC. With the coin looking to head toward the top red trendline, it might break to a new high instead of retracing.

$ $ $

Here’s a symbol list of 149 chart and candlestick patterns (13 “investment grade” candle patterns) found in today’s securities using my version of Patternz:
AXDX, ADTN, AJRD, ALRM, ALB, ALL, DOX, AMED, AEO, AEP, AXP, AFG, AIG, ANIK, APA, AWI, ARW, ATO, AVNT, AXS, BAX, BECN, BZH, BBBY, BBY, BMY, BRKS, BLDR, BG, CDNS, CE, CNC, CRL, CHKP, CINF, CRH, CROX, CSGS, DDS, EBAY, FDX, FOE, FE, FMC, FRD, GPS, GNW, GPRO, HBI, HQY, HSIC, HNI, HOLX, INCY, NSP, IBP, IIIN, TILE, IPG, KELYA, KBAL, KSS, KLIC, LZB, LAWS, LDOS, M, MCHX, MTRX, FB, MGEE, MLKN, MLI, NFLX, NJR, NEE, NKE, JWN, NUS, OLN, OMI, PKE, PTEN, PFE, PCG, PINC, PG, KWR, RGS, RGA, REV, RLI, RCKY, ROST, SCHW, SMG, SWX, SCS, TPR, TFX, TPX, TZOO, UNM, VLO, WMT, WAT, WERN, WSM, XLNX, IYK, IYC, ITB, FXI, ICF, IAT, IGE, EWO, EWK, EWC, EWJ, EWS, EWL, THD, TUR, PBE, ROBO, IXC, XLE, GLD, XHB, VHT. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day’s high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences),
the area might act as support or resistance.

— Thomas Bulkowski

Top

© 2021 ThePatternSite.com    Metric   Value   Diff   Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2   14,033.13      
 Monthly S1   14,922.35   889.23   
 Weekly S2   15,028.78   106.43   
 Monthly Pivot   15,213.24   184.46   
 Weekly S1   15,420.18   206.94   
 Weekly Pivot   15,462.15   41.97   
 Daily S2   15,544.73   82.58   
 Low   15,616.44   71.71   
 Open   15,658.52   42.08   
 Daily S1   15,678.16   19.64   Yes! The Daily S1 is close to the Open.
 61.8% Down from Intraday High   15,694.80   16.64   Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily S1.
 50% Down from Intraday High   15,719.00   24.21   
 38.2% Down from Intraday High   15,743.21   24.21   
 Daily Pivot   15,749.86   6.65   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High.
 Close   15,811.58   61.72   
 High   15,821.57   9.99   Yes! The High is close to the Close.
 Weekly R1   15,853.55   31.98   
 Daily R1   15,883.29   29.74   
 Weekly R2   15,895.52   12.23   Yes! The Weekly R2 is close to the Daily R1.
 Daily R2   15,954.99   59.47   
 Monthly R1   16,102.46   147.47   
 Monthly R2   16,393.35   290.88   


Wednesday 11/3/21. A Look At Indicators

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

Last week I wrote about bearish divergence shown between the indicator and the composite. In this chart, we see the indicator reaching or approaching its upward limit (100) before backing off
and the composite making a new high.

Indeed, today (Tuesday), the CPI dropped a bit from 90% to 81.5%. The indicator remains bullish.

Picture of the percent down indicators

The red line is the percentage of stocks at least 20% below their 1-year high (plotted upside down). The blue line is the average percentage drop of stocks below their 1-year high (plotted upside down).

Shown as a red line on the above chart…

On Tuesday, 25% of stocks in my database are in bear market territory (down at least 20% from their 1-year high).

A week ago, it was 26%.

The fewest was 8% on 03/15/2021.

And the most was 46% on 11/03/2020.

Shown as a blue line on the above chart…

The 460 stocks in my database are down an average of 13% from their yearly high.

A week ago, the average was 13%.

The peak was 8% on 03/15/2021.

And the bottom was 22% on 11/03/2020.

The red line is the more sensitive of the two red and blue indicator lines. Today, the red line dipped by one percentage point compared to a week ago. That’s bearish but not alarmingly so.

When you look at this chart, the trend of the red line is downward (bearish). The indicator peaked in March and remains below that peak. However, it has bounced off the low set in September.

We see a bullish CPI (prior) chart that has turned down. This chart has reversed a bearish trend begun in March. Will the markets continue to rise? It’s a complex question to answer.

The historical trend says that the markets will rise going into the new year. These two charts are signaling caution, but it’s mild, and they are bullish. What I’m saying is that the markets
are soft so watch for bearish news sending them lower. If bearish news doesn’t sway the markets, then that’s bullish.

$ $ $

Here’s a symbol list of 140 chart and candlestick patterns (13 “investment grade” candle patterns) found in today’s securities using my version of Patternz:
ABT, ADTN, AEIS, AMD, ALRM, ALB, AEO, AXP, APOG, AAPL, ATR, ATO, ADSK, AVY, AVA, AXS, BCPC, BECN, BZH, BERY, BBY, BKH, BOOT, BRC, BRKS, BG, CE, CIEN, CGNX, CL, EBAY, EL, EXPD, FFIV, FE, FORM, FRD, GPS, GIS, GPN, GS, HLIT, HSC, HE, HELE, HOLX, DHI, HOV, JBHT, IEX, INFN, NSP, IIIN, IPG, IPI, IVC, JBLU, KFRC, KBAL, KLAC, KLIC, LHX, LH, LAWS, LDOS, LEN, RAMP, LMT, MCHX, MLM, MAS, MTRN, MDC, MOS, CNR, NEE, ORI, ASGN, OUT, PKG, PTEN, PICO, POR, PG, PHM, DGX, RGS, ROK, RCKY, ROG, SCHW, SMTC, SLGN, TPX, TOL, TZOO, TREX, UPS, VFC, VLO, VRTX, WRB, WU, ZBRA, IHE, FTEC, QTEC, FXI, BOTZ, IYZ, SLV, IGE, EWA, EWK, EWQ, EWG, EPP, EWL, EWU, ROBO, XLE, VHT, MGK. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

— Thomas Bulkowski

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Tuesday 11/2/21. Slider Trading Quiz! Eagle Materials

The index climbed by 0.3% or 94.28 points. Since 10/01/1928 the index made 1121 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day’s…

     Average gain was 0.7% on 618 occasions.

     Average loss was -0.7% on 503 occasions.

Expect the index to close higher 55.1% of the time.

Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:

     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 231/414 or 55.8% of the time.

     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 43/90 or 47.8% of the time.

$ $ $

I show another slider trading quiz featuring Eagle Materials: EXP 1

$ $ $

Here’s a symbol list of 152 chart and candlestick patterns (13 “investment grade” candle patterns) found in today’s securities using my version of Patternz:
DDD, ABT, ANF, AXDX, ACIW, AEIS, ALRM, ALB, AA, DOX, AEO, ANIK, ANTM, APA, APOG, ATR, ARCB, ADSK, AVA, AXS, BCPC, BERY, BBY, BIO, BKNG, BOOT, BRKS, BG, CLS, CX, CNC, CENX, CLNE, CNA, CGNX, CMTL, CAG, COTY, CRH, CROX, CTS, EPAM, EFX, EZPW, FICO, FOE, FE, FLS, FTNT, FWRD, FRD, GPS, GD, GIS, GNW, GL, GOOGL, HLIT, HP, HD, JBHT, IDXX, ITW, INOV, INTU, JBLU, KBH, KELYA, KBAL, KLIC, LZB, LDOS, LLY, MTSI, M, MAS, MTRN, FB, MGEE, NCR, NXGN, JWN, NWPX, OLN, PDCO, PAYX, POR, PG, PEG, KWR, RJF, REV, ^GSPC, SLB, SCHW, SIGI, NOW, SSYS, SRDX, TECH, TFX, RIG, SLCA, UPS, VLO, WDAY, ITA, IYC, IEO, IEZ, IHE, IDU, FXL, BOTZ, IYZ, IGE, EWO, ECH, EWQ, EIS, EWI, EWM, EWP, EWD, EWL, PPA, DBA, PEJ, PXJ, PJP, ROBO, IXC, XLY, XLE, UNG, VHT. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day’s high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences),
the area might act as support or resistance.

— Thomas Bulkowski

© 2021 ThePatternSite.com    Metric   Value   Diff   Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2   33,090.05      
 Monthly S1   34,501.95   1,411.89   
 Monthly Pivot   35,197.43   695.49   
 Weekly S2   35,363.24   165.80   
 Weekly S1   35,638.54   275.30   
 Daily S2   35,695.41   56.88   
 Weekly Pivot   35,765.73   70.32   
 Low   35,797.97   32.24   
 Daily S1   35,804.63   6.66   Yes! The Daily S1 is close to the Low.
 Open   35,833.65   29.02   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High   35,878.87   45.22   
 50% Down from Intraday High   35,903.86   24.99   
 Daily Pivot   35,907.18   3.33   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 50% Down from Intraday High.
 Close   35,913.84   6.66   Yes! The Close is close to the Daily Pivot.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High   35,928.84   15.00   Yes! The 38.2% Down from Intraday High is close to the Close.
 High   36,009.74   80.89   
 Daily R1   36,016.40   6.66   Yes! The Daily R1 is close to the High.
 Weekly R1   36,041.03   24.63   
 Daily R2   36,118.95   77.92   
 Weekly R2   36,168.22   49.27   
 Monthly R1   36,609.33   441.11   
 Monthly R2   37,304.81   695.48   

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Monday 11/1/21. 2021 Forecast Update

Here’s the updated 2021 forecast for November, presented in slider format.

Based on sector performance from Fidelity, the best performing sectors for one-year performance as of 29 October 2021 were…
(The numbering is how they ranked a month ago.)

1. Energy (+101%)

2. Financials (+67%)

5. Real estate (+40%)

4. Information technology (+38%)

3. Communication services (+36%)

6. Industrials (+35%)

7. Materials (+34%)

9. Consumer discretionary (+28%)

8. Health care (+25%)

10. Consumer staples (+12%)

11. Utilities (+4%)

The folks at two firms polled by Fidelity weigh the sectors in this order.

1. Information technology (IT)

2. Health care

3. Consumer discretionary

5. Financials

4. Communication services

6. Industrials

7. Consumer staples

8. Energy

9. Real estate

10. Materials

11. Utilities

Here’s how they rank the industries, but only the top 10 appear. One-year change, as of 10/29. The numbering is how they ranked a month ago but that was based on year-to-date performance.
This list is for one year performance.

1. Real estate management and development (134%)

4. Energy equipment and services (+105%)

6. Oil, gas and consumable fuels (+100%)

2. Consumer finance (+88%)

3. Construction and engineering (+85%)

5. Banks (+84%)

7. Automobiles (+79%)

8. Capital markets (66%)

9. Auto components (+64%)

10. Communications equipment (53%)

Here’s a symbol list of 88 chart and candlestick patterns (13 “investment grade” candle patterns) found in today’s securities using my version of Patternz:
ABT, AXDX, AEIS, AMD, AA, ADS, AEO, AEL, APOG, ATR, AIZ, AXS, BAX, BECN, BERY, BBY, BRC, BRKS, BG, CX, CENX, CHS, CHD, CSCO, ED, CAG, COTY, CTS, DHR, DRQ, EMN, EBAY, WIRE, EQT, RE, FFIV, FOE, FE, FRD, GNW, GL, GOOGL, HBI, HE, HAYN, HQY, HON, IBP, ITGR, IBKR, KALU, KLAC, LH, LNC, LOW, MTSI, MDT, MYGN, NXGN, NVDA, OLN, PTEN, RJF, RGA, RLI, SWX, SCS, SUM, TGT, TG, UGI, VLO, WRB, FDN, IYZ, SOXX, IGE, EWO, ECH, EEM, EWW, EZA, EWY, THD, PPA, XLE. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

The below industries were the best (rank 1) or worst performing of those I follow.

This Week Last Week
1. Petroleum (Producing) 1. Petroleum (Producing)
2. Precision Instrument 2. Petroleum (Integrated)
3. Retail Store 3. Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
4. Shoe 4. Securities Brokerage
5. Trucking/Transp. Leasing 5. Retail Store
6. IT Services 6. Shoe
7. Petroleum (Integrated) 7. Precision Instrument
8. Computer Software and Svcs 8. Insurance (Diversified)
9. Drug 9. Human Resources
10. Securities Brokerage 10. IT Services
Best Performing Above Worst Performing Below
50. Chemical (Basic) 50. Building Materials
51. Packaging and Container 51. Electric Utility (Central)
52. Metal Fabricating 52. Metal Fabricating
53. Furn/Home Furnishings 53. Medical Services
54. Electric Utility (West) 54. Telecom. Equipment
55. Financial Services 55. Household Products
56. Short ETFs 56. Air Transport
57. Telecom. Equipment 57. Electric Utility (West)
58. Air Transport 58. Homebuilding
59. Apparel 59. Short ETFs
60. Homebuilding 60. Apparel

— Thomas Bulkowski

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2024 Forecast…

Blog: January 2024 As of 01/05/2024   Indus: 37,466 +25.77 +0.1%     Trans: 15,509 +10.50 +0.1%     Utils: 899 +3.16 +0.4%   ...

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