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Trading Quiz Tuesday: Falling Wedge…






Blog: September 2023


Bulkowski's Blog: ThePatternSite.com

As of 09/07/2023

  Indus: 34,501 +57.54 +0.2%  

  Trans: 15,299 -75.38 -0.5%  

  Utils: 864 +11.22 +1.3%  

  Nasdaq: 13,749 -123.64 -0.9%  

  S&P 500: 4,451 -14.34 -0.3%  

YTD

 +4.1%  

 +14.2%  

-10.7%  

 +31.4%  

 +15.9%  

  Up arrow36,250 or 34,000 by 09/15/2023
  Up arrow16,300 or 15,300 by 09/15/2023
  Up arrow910 or 845 by 09/15/2023
  Up arrow14,400 or 13,300 by 09/15/2023
  Up arrow4,575 or 4,300 by 09/15/2023

As of 09/07/2023

  Indus: 34,501 +57.54 +0.2%  

  Trans: 15,299 -75.38 -0.5%  

  Utils: 864 +11.22 +1.3%  

  Nasdaq: 13,749 -123.64 -0.9%  

  S&P 500: 4,451 -14.34 -0.3%  

YTD

 +4.1%  

 +14.2%  

-10.7%  

 +31.4%  

 +15.9%  

  Up arrow36,250 or 34,000 by 09/15/2023
  Up arrow16,300 or 15,300 by 09/15/2023
  Up arrow910 or 845 by 09/15/2023
  Up arrow14,400 or 13,300 by 09/15/2023
  Up arrow4,575 or 4,300 by 09/15/2023


Friday 9/8/23. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

I released a new version of Patternz (8.0.0.2) which has an important bug fix to prevent a crash. Patternz is my free software that finds chart patterns. It’s well
worth the money. Smiley

$ $ $

Here’s a symbol list of 142 chart and candlestick patterns (13 “investment grade” candle patterns) found in today’s securities using my version of Patternz:
DDD, ABT, ABM, ACN, ATVI, AES, A, ATSG, AA, ALKS, AEO, AXP, ACGL, AWI, ARW, AZTA, BALL, BERY, BIO, BSX, BFH, CAL, CX, CF, CLNE, CLF, CNA, CL, CSGP, CR, CRH, CCRN, EMN, EL, EZPW, FARO, FMC, FDP, FRD, GD, GFS, GL, GPRO, HLIT, HL, HP, HSIC, HOLX, IDXX, NSP, IPAR, IBKR, IPI, JNJ, KMT, KSS, LAMR, LLY, MRCY, MLKN, MOS, MYGN, ^IXIC, NFG, NCR, NWL, NEU, NKE, NOC, NVDA, OMCL, OUT, PDCO, PFE, PLXS, PGR, KWR, ROL, SAND, SCHW, SEE, SKYW, LUV, SWX, SUM, TPR, TECH, TFX, TER, TKR, RIG, UHAL, UGI, UIS, UNH, UNM, WRB, WSC, ZBRA, IAI, IYE, FTEC, IHF, MXI, ILF, IHI, EWA, EWO, EWK, EWZ, EWC, EEM, EWQ, EWH, EIS, EWI, EPP, EWY, PEJ, PHO, ROBO, XAR, SMH. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

The following patterns were found manually, not using Patternz. Mr. Bulkowski has excluded any securities he owns from appearing in the list. However, he may add any of the securities listed to his portfolio at any time, just as you can.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

For details about the chart patterns, click here.

— Thomas Bulkowski

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 Symbol  Chart Pattern  Bullish 
 Bearish 
Start End Industry
ABM Head-and-shoulders top        08/01/2023 09/01/2023 Industrial Services
ACIW Pipe bottom        08/21/2023 08/21/2023 IT Services
AYI Triangle, descending        07/26/2023 09/07/2023 Furn/Home Furnishings
ADTN Ugly double bottom        08/07/2023 08/29/2023 Telecom. Equipment
ANET Pipe bottom        07/24/2023 07/31/2023 E-Commerce
AVY Pipe bottom        08/14/2023 08/21/2023 Packaging and Container
AVNT Pipe bottom        08/14/2023 08/21/2023 Chemical (Specialty)
CF Pipe bottom        08/21/2023 08/28/2023 Chemical (Basic)
CMCO Broadening bottom        08/15/2023 09/05/2023 Machinery
CR Pipe bottom        08/14/2023 08/21/2023 Diversified Co.
EXP Pipe bottom        08/14/2023 08/21/2023 Cement and Aggregates
EFX Pipe bottom        08/14/2023 08/21/2023 Information Services
FORM Pipe bottom        08/14/2023 08/21/2023 Semiconductor
FNV Head-and-shoulders bottom        08/08/2023 08/25/2023 Metals and Mining (Div.)
GD Double Top, Eve and Adam        08/11/2023 08/30/2023 Aerospace/Defense
INFN Ugly double bottom        08/09/2023 08/28/2023 Telecom. Equipment
INTC Pipe bottom        08/14/2023 08/21/2023 Semiconductor
IRM Double Bottom, Adam and Eve        08/03/2023 08/18/2023 Industrial Services
LOW Double Bottom, Adam and Adam        08/08/2023 08/21/2023 Retail Building Supply
MTSI Pipe bottom        08/14/2023 08/21/2023 Semiconductor
MTRN Broadening bottom        08/04/2023 09/05/2023 Metals and Mining (Div.)
MCO Pipe bottom        08/14/2023 08/21/2023 Information Services
NFLX Pipe bottom        08/14/2023 08/21/2023 Internet
NTAP Double Bottom, Adam and Adam        08/18/2023 08/25/2023 Computers and Peripherals
NOVT Double Bottom, Adam and Eve        08/09/2023 08/18/2023 Precision Instrument
OLN Double Top, Eve and Adam        08/09/2023 08/30/2023 Chemical (Basic)
ON Pipe bottom        08/14/2023 08/21/2023 Semiconductor
PCTY Pipe bottom        08/14/2023 08/21/2023 E-Commerce
PYPL Pipe bottom        08/14/2023 08/21/2023 Financial Services
PLXS Double Top, Eve and Eve        07/25/2023 09/01/2023 Electronics
RMBS Rising wedge        08/04/2023 09/07/2023 Semiconductor Cap Equip.
RTX Triangle, symmetrical        07/31/2023 09/05/2023 Aerospace/Defense
SMG Pipe bottom        08/14/2023 08/21/2023 Chemical (Basic)
SHOP Pipe bottom        08/14/2023 08/21/2023 E-Commerce
SWX Double Top, Eve and Adam        07/27/2023 08/09/2023 Natural Gas (Distributor)
UHAL Triangle, symmetrical        08/07/2023 09/07/2023 Trucking/Transp. Leasing
VRTX Triangle, symmetrical        08/02/2023 09/05/2023 Biotechnology
WEX Pipe bottom        08/14/2023 08/21/2023 Information Services
ZBRA Ugly double bottom        08/03/2023 08/25/2023 Computers and Peripherals

 

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Thursday 9/7/23. Intraday Market Direction: Nasdaq

The Nasdaq dropped by -1.1% or -148.48 points. Since 02/05/1971 the Nasdaq made 179 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day’s…

     Average gain was 1.3% on 90 occasions.

     Average loss was -1.1% on 89 occasions.

Expect the Nasdaq to close higher 50.3% of the time.

Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:

     The prediction of the Nasdaq closing higher has been right 262/464 or 56.5% of the time.

     The prediction of the Nasdaq closing lower has been right 73/154 or 47.4% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5 minute scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5-minute scale.

I drew a horizontal red line to highlight not only support but what I call a multi-peak pattern. You don’t want to mess with a multi-peak.

After a multi-peak ends, price can drop like we see here or it can form a bullish pattern that fizzles out and price drops anyway.

In this case, I would expect the index to drop to the price of the circled area. Because this is on the intraday scale, the prediction is less reliable than on the daily charts, so keep that in mind.
In short, I could be wrong and price will zip up instead (but if that were to happen, it might reverse and still drop).

$ $ $

Here’s a symbol list of 161 chart and candlestick patterns (13 “investment grade” candle patterns) found in today’s securities using my version of Patternz:
DDD, A, ATSG, ALKS, AXP, AIG, AME, ATR, AWI, AVY, AZTA, BCPC, BOOT, BMY, BRKR, CACI, CALM, CAL, CX, CF, CIEN, CMCO, CONN, COST, CR, CRH, CCRN, CCK, CSGS, FANG, DSGR, ^DJI, EG, EVH, XOM, EZPW, FARO, FAST, FLEX, FMC, FORM, FRD, GD, GNW, GL, GMS, GOOGL, GPRO, HL, HELE, HSIC, HOLX, HWM, INCY, NSP, ITGR, IPAR, IBKR, IPI, NVTA, IRM, JKHY, JNJ, KSS, LH, LANC, LEG, RAMP, LMT, L, LOW, MTSI, MAN, MTRN, MRK, MCO, MLI, NFG, NCR, NEWR, NWL, NXGN, JWN, NUS, OMC, ASGN, OTEX, OR, PKG, PKE, PFE, PLXS, RTX, ROL, RES, SEIC, SLGN, SKX, LUV, SWX, TRGP, TECH, TPX, TDG, RIG, SLCA, UNH, VMI, VEEV, WRB, WERN, IAI, DDM, IYH, IHF, IEV, MXI, ILF, SLV, EWC, ECH, EEM, EWQ, EWG, EIS, EWI, EWM, EPP, EWS, EWP, EWL, PBE, PJP, XLE, GLD, XLV, XRT, XAR, UNG, USO, VHT. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day’s high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences),
the area might act as support or resistance.

— Thomas Bulkowski

Top

© 2023 ThePatternSite.com    Metric   Value   Diff   Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2   12,592.56      
 Monthly S1   13,232.52   639.95   
 Weekly S2   13,359.93   127.41   
 Weekly S1   13,616.20   256.27   
 Daily S2   13,692.75   76.55   
 Daily S1   13,782.61   89.86   
 Monthly Pivot   13,801.71   19.10   Yes! The Monthly Pivot is close to the Daily S1.
 Low   13,802.42   0.71   Yes! The Low is close to the Monthly Pivot.
 Close   13,872.47   70.05   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High   13,878.64   6.17   Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Close.
 Weekly Pivot   13,882.91   4.27   Yes! The Weekly Pivot is close to the 61.8% Down from Intraday High.
 Daily Pivot   13,892.28   9.37   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the Weekly Pivot.
 50% Down from Intraday High   13,902.18   9.90   Yes! The 50% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High   13,925.73   23.54   
 Daily R1   13,982.14   56.41   
 Open   13,988.81   6.67   Yes! The Open is close to the Daily R1.
 High   14,001.95   13.14   Yes! The High is close to the Open.
 Daily R2   14,091.81   89.86   
 Weekly R1   14,139.18   47.37   
 Weekly R2   14,405.89   266.71   
 Monthly R1   14,441.67   35.78   
 Monthly R2   15,010.86   569.20   


Wednesday 9/6/23. A Look At Indicators

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

The CPI turned bearish as the red vertical bar shows on the far right of the chart. This is September, after all, the worst performing month of the year.

I think this signal will be short lived, meaning I expect it to disappear. Having written that, today’s big drop in the Dow was a surprise.

Picture of the percent down indicators

The red line is the percentage of stocks at least 20% below their 1-year high (plotted upside down). The blue line is the average percentage drop of stocks below their 1-year high (plotted upside down).

Shown as a red line on the above chart…

On Tuesday, 35% of stocks in my database are in bear market territory (down at least 20% from their 1-year high).

A week ago, it was 36%.

The fewest was 26% on 07/31/2023.

And the most was 78% on 09/26/2022.

Shown as a blue line on the above chart…

The 522 stocks in my database are down an average of 18% from their yearly high.

A week ago, the average was 18%.

The peak was 14% on 07/31/2023.

And the bottom was 34% on 09/30/2022.

The red line this week is slightly better than it was a week ago, with the blue line holding steady.

The chart shows a downward turn in both lines, following the index lower.

The prior chart is bearish and this one shows it’s bearish, too. So maybe I’m wrong in believing that this downturn is a one or two day drop and that we’ll return to making new highs by week’s end.

I will say that the utility index got clobbered today (down 1.76%). I’m looking add some utility stocks to my holdings but the index continues to drop. That boosts yields, of course, and drops the stock’s purchase
price. Where’s the bottom? I don’t know…

$ $ $

Here’s a symbol list of 161 chart and candlestick patterns (13 “investment grade” candle patterns) found in today’s securities using my version of Patternz:
ABM, ACN, AYI, ADBE, APD, ALK, ALB, AYX, DOX, AME, AAPL, ARCB, AWI, ADSK, BAX, BBY, BIO, BKNG, BOOT, BRC, CACI, CF, CVX, CIEN, CSCO, COP, CSGP, CRH, CMI, DOV, EZPW, FDS, FICO, FARO, FLEX, FMC, FTV, FDP, FRD, GPN, GFS, GL, GMS, GPRO, GFF, HBI, HE, HL, HELE, HOLX, HUN, IEX, IDXX, INCY, ITGR, TILE, IPI, NVTA, JKHY, KALU, LH, LOW, MHO, MANH, MTDR, MDC, MRCY, MLKN, MLI, NFG, NOV, NTAP, NWL, NEU, NXGN, NWPX, OXY, OLN, OTEX, OR, OUT, PANW, PKE, PFE, PCG, PNW, PGR, KWR, QCOM, ROK, ROL, SAND, SCHW, SMG, SEIC, SIGI, NOW, SLGN, LUV, SCS, TRGP, TGT, TDY, TFX, TTD, TDG, RIG, SLCA, V, WRB, WERN, WLK, IYC, IYE, IEZ, IHE, FDN, QTEC, IHF, IYZ, IEV, IGV, IXC, ILF, ECH, EWQ, EWG, EWI, EZA, EWP, EWL, THD, TUR, PEJ, PJP, PHO, XLE, XLV, XLK, UNG, USO, VIS. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

— Thomas Bulkowski

Top


Tuesday 9/5/23. Slider Trading Quiz!

The Dow climbed by 0.3% or 115.8 points. Since 10/01/1928 the Dow made 1149 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day’s…

     Average gain was 0.7% on 634 occasions.

     Average loss was -0.6% on 515 occasions.

Expect the Dow to close higher 55.2% of the time.

Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:

     The prediction of the Dow closing higher has been right 271/491 or 55.2% of the time.

     The prediction of the Dow closing lower has been right 51/108 or 47.2% of the time.

$ $ $

I show another slider trading quiz featuring Wedge, falling stock.

$ $ $

Here’s a symbol list of 171 chart and candlestick patterns (13 “investment grade” candle patterns) found in today’s securities using my version of Patternz:
ABT, ACN, ACIW, AES, APD, AEO, AIG, AMWD, APA, ADM, AGO, ADSK, AVY, AVNT, BSET, BAX, BECN, BERY, BBY, BIO, BA, CE, CLS, CDAY, CF, CHKP, CIEN, CNA, COP, CR, CCRN, CCK, CMI, DVN, FANG, EXP, EIX, EFX, EQT, XOM, FDS, FICO, FARO, FORM, FWRD, FCX, GD, GOOGL, HBI, HE, JBHT, HURC, ITGR, INTC, IRM, JNJ, KALU, K, LH, LNC, LOW, LXU, MTSI, MGY, MANH, MRO, MTDR, MTRN, MDT, META, MU, MCO, MOS, MUR, NBR, NOV, NFLX, NWPX, NOVT, NTNX, OXY, ON, OUT, PCTY, PYPL, PXD, PRU, KWR, RJF, RLI, RGLD, SAIA, SAND, SLB, SCHW, SAIC, SMG, SEIC, SHOP, SKYW, SO, SCCO, SWX, SPSC, TGT, TPX, TEVA, RIG, TG, TREX, TWLO, SLCA, UIS, VFC, VLO, VEEV, VMC, WRB, WU, WLK, WEX, WPM, WDAY, IYM, IYC, IYE, IEZ, FXL, FXI, ICF, IHF, IYZ, IEV, IXC, MXI, ILF, IGE, IEO, EWK, EWZ, EWQ, EWI, EWJ, EWM, EWW, EWY, EWP, EWD, THD, QLD, PEJ, PXJ, PJP, XLY, XLE, XHB, XLB, SPY, UNG, USO, VAW, VONG. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day’s high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences),
the area might act as support or resistance.

— Thomas Bulkowski

Top

© 2023 ThePatternSite.com    Metric   Value   Diff   Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2   33,198.78      
 Monthly S1   34,018.24   819.46   
 Weekly S2   34,154.62   136.38   
 Weekly S1   34,496.16   341.55   
 Daily S2   34,587.38   91.22   
 Daily S1   34,712.55   125.16   
 Low   34,720.70   8.15   Yes! The Low is close to the Daily S1.
 Weekly Pivot   34,783.19   62.49   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High   34,819.44   36.25   
 Close   34,837.71   18.27   Yes! The Close is close to the 61.8% Down from Intraday High.
 Daily Pivot   34,845.86   8.15   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the Close.
 Monthly Pivot   34,848.69   2.82   Yes! The Monthly Pivot is close to the Daily Pivot.
 50% Down from Intraday High   34,849.94   1.25   Yes! The 50% Down from Intraday High is close to the Monthly Pivot.
 Open   34,876.24   26.30   
 38.2% Down from Intraday High   34,880.44   4.20   Yes! The 38.2% Down from Intraday High is close to the Open.
 Daily R1   34,971.03   90.59   
 High   34,979.18   8.15   Yes! The High is close to the Daily R1.
 Daily R2   35,104.34   125.16   
 Weekly R1   35,124.73   20.39   Yes! The Weekly R1 is close to the Daily R2.
 Weekly R2   35,411.76   287.02   
 Monthly R1   35,668.15   256.39   
 Monthly R2   36,498.60   830.45   


Friday 9/1/23. Forecast 2023 Update

Here’s the updated 2023 forecast, presented in slider format.

$ $ $

Here’s a symbol list of 192 chart and candlestick patterns (13 “investment grade” candle patterns) found in today’s securities using my version of Patternz:
ABT, ACN, ACIW, ADBE, AES, A, ALL, AFG, AMWD, AME, AMN, AAPL, ADM, ANET, ATO, ADP, AVY, AVNT, AVA, AXS, BA, BOOT, BR, BRKR, BBW, CDNS, CAL, CE, CDAY, CIEN, CLNE, CNA, CL, CMTL, ED, CONN, GLW, COST, CR, CMI, FANG, ^DJT, ^DJI, BOOM, EXP, ELV, EFX, EVRG, EVH, EXPI, FARO, FISV, FORM, FTNT, FWRD, FCX, GD, GL, GMS, GES, THG, HIG, HTLD, HSII, HP, HURC, IDA, IEX, ITGR, IPI, NVTA, IRM, JAZZ, JNJ, KLAC, LH, LPLA, MTSI, MAS, META, MSFT, MCO, MUR, NBR, NFLX, NJR, ORI, ASGN, ON, OUT, PKG, PANW, PATK, PCTY, PYPL, PEN, PFE, PXD, POR, DGX, RTX, REGN, RCKY, ROG, ROL, ROP, RGLD, RES, CRM, SAND, SCHW, SMG, SEIC, SMTC, SHOP, STR, SO, SWX, SR, SPLK, SPSC, SCS, SSYS, SRDX, SNPS, TECH, TFX, TEVA, TXT, TMO, TG, SLCA, UIS, UNM, VEEV, MDRX, WRB, WAT, WEX, WPM, WMB, WSM, WDAY, ZBRA, IYE, IHE, DDM, FTEC, FDN, FXL, FXI, ICF, IHF, IYZ, IGV, IXC, IYF, IHI, EWZ, EIS, EWJ, EWM, EWW, EZA, EWU, QLD, PBE, PXJ, PHO, XHB, XLI, XLK, USO. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

— Thomas Bulkowski

Top

 

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Copyright © 2005-2023 by Thomas N. Bulkowski. All rights reserved.
Disclaimer: You alone are responsible for your investment decisions. See Privacy/Disclaimer for more information.

Some pattern names are registered trademarks of their respective owners.


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Intraday Market Direction Thursday: Nasdaq Higher…

Blog: November 2023 As of 11/06/2023   Indus: 34,096 +34.54 +0.1%     Trans: 14,503 -9.79 -0.1%     Utils: 854 -5.72 -0.7%   ...

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