Trading Quiz Tuesday: Rohm and Haas…

Friday 3/5/21. Home Front Update. I Have Water!

No trading setups for the weekend. Instead, let me tell you how today’s activity went.

I finally got my water turned back on after almost 3 weeks. As you may know, my water went off when I lost power in the roving blackouts when cold weather hit our area in early February.

Today, I had 2 burst pipes to fix (total of 3. I fixed one a week ago and waited for parts for the last two). I struggled with cutting the water pipe square. I made two pipe cuts and gave up.
I walked to Home Depot and asked what I was doing wrong. The guy took my pipe cutter and my burst pipe and tried to cut off a bit. The pipe cutter was faulty (it started to spiral). He gave me a
new one (for free!) which worked (I cut off a small portion of both pipes I’d cut earlier to make then ‘square’ and finished off the next burst pipe.

After I coupled everything together, I ran an air pressure test on the water line (pumping in air through a hose bib outside the house). This seemed to work but it was hard to tell
with the compressor I was using. I tried it a few times, listened for leaks, and dribbled soapy water onto the dozen connections I’d made (I replaced cheap, leaky water and toilet valves with
1/4 turn things). All looked good.

Then I powered up the water, in 15 second increments, and checked for leaks. I found three new ones, all from water valves I changed under the sinks. One I forgot to tighten the compressing
fitting. The other two just needed a little tightening on the compression side.

However, my master bath faucet didn’t work. Water was on, but no water came out (no drips even). I cycled the new valves I put in, tried hot and cold, but that didn’t change anything.
I scratched my head over that.

I thought it unlikely that both new valves would be broken. I thought maybe the freeze toasted the Delta faucet. A busted faucet was a strong likelihood since all faucets in my house froze
(inside temperature dropped to 29.9 degrees. The toilet bowl froze. I had an icicle in my upstairs faucet). If a pipe can burst, why not a faucet? I also thought that maybe heat from removing
the old valves broke the faucet (unlikely because the faucet is 2 feet of copper pipe away).

I put that problem aside and turned on the water to the house then ran upstairs and down checking all dozen fittings for leaks. I left the house water pressurized for an hour and checked the water meter. No usage, meaning no leaks.

In the last attempt at fixing the no-water to my sink, I unscrewed the faucet screen and cleaned it out. I found debris. In fact, when I changed the hot water valve, I found a piece of tree
bark in the line (which caused the hot water to sputter when coming out). Anyway, once I cleaned out the filter, the faucet worked just fine.

All I have to do now is replace the drywall and stuff more insulation into the kitchen where the pipes are. I can take a shower! I can cook spaghetti! I can flush the toilet. Yippee!

I’d like to thank the following for helping or offering to help. The world is a better place for having people like these in our lives. Cherish them.

Mary Ann Binkowski (cousin who offered to help)

David Bulkowski (brother and sympathetic ear. Sent critical parts to fix my leaks)

Steve Murray (neighbor who has an air compressor which worked)

Phil Murphy (neighbor who has an air compressor which didn’t work — couldn’t couple to my plumbing)

Ronda Palm (friend who lent a sympathetic ear and offer to help)

Rico (gave me a Christmas present of a case of water which I used first and another case a week or so ago. Both of which made this disaster survivable)

Larry Rivera (neighbor. I used him as a water source. Twice)

Mark Theriault (email contact and the first to offer help. He spent his own money to send me a part to fix the leak!)

Karen Wasserman (Production manager (editor) of Technical Analysis of Stocks & Commodities magazine who also offered to help)

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Here’s a symbol list of 177 chart and candlestick patterns (13 “investment grade” candle patterns) found in today’s securities using my version of Patternz:
MMM, ACN, ACIW, AJRD, AFL, ALB, ALL, AMED, AEO, AMGN, AMN, APH, ANIK, ARCB, ARW, ASH, ADSK, AVNT, BMI, BSET, BAX, BA, EPAY, BRC, BLDR, BG, CX, CRL, CHD, CIEN, CLF, CLX, CONN, CLR, COST, COTY, CR, XRAY, DUK, EBAY, WIRE, EFX, EXPD, EZPW, FICO, FAST, FFG, FIS, FEYE, FLEX, FMC, FWRD, FCX, GPS, GNW, GPRO, GGG, HLIT, HSC, HAYN, HQY, HTLD, HL, HNI, HOLX, HON, JBHT, IDXX, ILMN, IIIN, IPG, ISRG, NVTA, JCOM, KFRC, LEG, LEN, RAMP, M, MCHX, MAS, MTRN, MDT, MS, NTGR, NJR, NOC, NWPX, PYPL, PRFT, POR, QCOM, RMBS, RGS, REV, RNG, RCKY, ROG, CRM, SIGI, SMTC, NOW, SLGN, SO, SSYS, SRDX, SNPS, TDOC, TFX, TER, TMO, TKR, TOL, TSCO, RIG, TG, TREX, SLCA, VLO, VMI, VEEV, VC, WMT, WSO, WLK, WDAY, ITA, IYM, ITB, IHE, FTEC, FDN, FXL, FXI, BOTZ, ICF, IYH, IHF, IAT, IYZ, IGV, EEM, EWH, EIS, EWS, EWL, EWT, EWU, IBB, PBE, PEJ, ROBO, IEV, XLV, XHB, XLI, XLK, UNG, VHT. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

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Thursday 3/4/21. Intraday Market Direction: Nasdaq

Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:

     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 210/370 or 56.8% of the time.

     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 58/120 or 48.3% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

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I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5-minute scale.

Starting on the left, there’s a complex head-and-shoulders bottom that’s in need of a surgeon. This one has two heads and a right shoulder (RS) which would be better
if it’s more symmetrical (lower) so it matches the left shoulder (LS).

What caught my eye was how price has dropped in a Elliott wave, motive wave. That’s a 5 segment move. In this case, price drops on segments 1, 3 and 5 and retraces on legs 2 and 4.
Of course, I’m not an expert on EW, so I could be wrong about all of this. It suggests that price will rise in an ABC correction. That may have already started at the bounce as it reached
13,000.

On the daily chart (not shown), we see 13,000 as being a support area, so I’m looking for the index to close higher on Thursday. That also agrees with the above probabilities.

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Here’s a symbol list of 138 chart and candlestick patterns (13 “investment grade” candle patterns) found in today’s securities using my version of Patternz:
ACN, ACIW, ALB, AA, ALKS, AMED, ACGL, ASH, ADSK, ADP, BSET, BAX, BIIB, BMRN, BLDR, BG, CBT, CACI, CDNS, CENX, CVX, CHD, CIEN, CINF, CTXS, CGNX, CTSH, CAG, GLW, COST, DECK, XRAY, EXP, EXPD, FFIV, FFG, FIVN, FCX, GPRO, GGG, GFF, HLIT, HQY, HON, HOV, ILMN, ISRG, NVTA, KALU, KBAL, LHX, LAMR, LLY, LMT, L, LXU, M, MCHX, MRTN, MTRN, MTRX, MDC, MDT, MSFT, CNR, NTGR, NWL, NXGN, NI, OMI, PDCO, PRU, KWR, DGX, RGS, RNG, RHI, SAIA, CRM, SEIC, SRE, SMTC, SLGN, SCCO, SWX, SSYS, SNPS, TDOC, TMO, TSCO, RIG, TRV, TG, VFC, VC, WMT, WDAY, ZBRA, ITA, IYC, IHE, FDN, FXL, ICF, IYH, IHF, IGV, ECH, EPP, EWS, THD, IBB, PPA, PBE, PEJ, PJP, PHO, ROBO, ILF, XLV, USO, VHT. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

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The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day’s high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences),
the area might act as support or resistance.

— Thomas Bulkowski

Wednesday 3/3/21. A Look At Indicators

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

The red and green pair of vertical lines (far right on the chart) being so close to one another means a wicked whiplash turn. It’s a sign of a strong down day followed by a strong push higher. It’s interesting
that the bearish signal wasn’t wiped out by the bullish turn. Recall that any signal can be changed for up to a week before the concrete sets.

Right now, the indicator is bullish. If you look at the thin blue line near the bottom of the chart, it looks as if the CPI has turned neutral (around 50).

The red line is the percentage of stocks at least 20% below their 1-year high (plotted upside down). The blue line is the average percentage drop of stocks below their 1-year high (plotted upside down).

The two green lines show divergence. I mentioned this last week. The red line is climbing even as the index is falling.

The last chart was bullish and so is this one. So I expect the weakness in the markets to end soon.

However, we could form a head-and-shoulders top pattern with the February peak in the index being the head, the left shoulder is the January peak, and the right shoulder has yet to appear.
If that interpretation is correct, then look for the index to drop before rising up to the right shoulder.

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Here’s a symbol list of 150 chart and candlestick patterns (13 “investment grade” candle patterns) found in today’s securities using my version of Patternz:
AXDX, AEIS, AMD, AFL, ALB, ALL, ADSK, ADP, AVNT, BMI, BRKS, BLDR, CBT, CACI, CDNS, CLS, CHD, CIEN, CLNE, CGNX, CL, CSOD, GLW, CREE, CSGS, DECK, XRAY, DTE, EXP, EBAY, WIRE, EPAM, EL, EXPD, FFIV, FB, FICO, FAST, FIVN, FLIR, FORM, FCX, GNW, GPRO, GGG, GFF, HQY, HOV, HUBG, IDA, IDXX, ITW, INOV, IPAR, ISRG, JCOM, KBAL, LZB, LLY, LXU, MHO, MTSI, M, MANH, MCHX, MLM, MTRN, MDC, MDT, MRK, MGEE, MSFT, MS, NFG, CNR, NXGN, OMI, PANW, PDCO, PYPL, PINC, KWR, QCOM, RMBS, RGS, RNG, RHI, ROST, SAIC, SLGN, SCCO, SWX, SSYS, SNPS, TGT, TJX, TSCO, TG, TREX, VMI, VC, VMC, WRB, WU, WWW, WDAY, XLNX, ZBRA, IYC, FTEC, FDN, QTEC, FXL, BOTZ, IGV, SOXX, EWH, EIS, EWM, EWW, EWD, QLD, PXJ, QQQ, ROBO, ILF, XLY, XLK, SMH, VHT, MGK. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

— Thomas Bulkowski

Tuesday 3/2/21. Slider Trading Quiz! Rohm and Haas

Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:

     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 222/385 or 57.7% of the time.

     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 41/86 or 47.7% of the time.

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I show another slider trading quiz featuring Rohm and Haas: ROH (actual trade)

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I ran a pressure test of my home’s water lines and found two more burst pipes, joining a third one I’ve fixed. I’m waiting for parts to arrive so I can fix those two and run another pressure
test. It’s been more than 2 weeks since I’ve had running water at home.

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Here’s a symbol list of 135 chart and candlestick patterns (13 “investment grade” candle patterns) found in today’s securities using my version of Patternz:
ABT, ACN, AMD, APD, ALRM, ALB, AEE, AXS, BMI, BERY, BKH, BBW, CACI, CENX, CHS, CHD, CLF, CGNX, CMTL, CLGX, CSOD, CR, CCK, DHR, XRAY, DVN, DDS, DFS, ^DJI, EXP, EMN, EMR, EOG, EPAM, EXPD, FFIV, FAST, FDX, FRD, GME, IT, GNW, THG, HSC, HAYN, HTLD, HP, HOLX, HON, IEX, INOV, ISRG, JKHY, K, KBAL, KLAC, LHX, LZB, LRCX, LANC, LNC, LMT, MHO, MANH, MTRX, MGEE, NBR, NTGR, NEU, OTEX, OXM, PKG, PDCO, PTEN, PYPL, PNW, PINC, RNG, ROK, RCKY, ^GSPC, SLB, SCHW, SAIC, SIGI, SLGN, SNPS, TPX, TRV, TG, TREX, VFC, VMI, WMT, WERN, WDAY, XLNX, ITA, IYK, IHI, IEZ, DDM, IYH, IAT, IYZ, EWA, EWK, ECH, EWH, EWJ, EPP, EWS, EWD, EWL, THD, EWU, PPA, PEJ, PXJ, PJP, PHO, MXI, GLD, XLV, XLI, XLU, USO, VHT. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

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The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day’s high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences),
the area might act as support or resistance.

— Thomas Bulkowski

Monday 3/1/21. 2021 Forecast Update

My Prediction

Here’s the updated 2021 forecast for March, presented in slider format.

Based on sector performance from Fidelity, the best performing sectors for year to date performance as of 26 February 2021 were…
(The numbering is how they ranked a month ago.)

6. Information technology (+36.5%)

4. Consumer discretionary (+29.4%)

9. Materials (+27.0%)

7. Communication services (+27.0%)

2. Health care (+13.6%)

10. Industrials (+13.1%)

8. Financials (+10.8%)

11. Consumer staples (+1.9%)

1. Energy (-4.7%).

3. Real estate (-7.7%)

5. Utilities (-14.4%)

Look at the month ago rank. They have bounced around a lot. Energy was top of the list last month and now it’s 9th.
Information technology ranks first, joining a position it held for most of last year. I’m glad it’s in first place because that’s where I put my bucks this year when adjusting
my portfolio for year-ahead performance.

Here’s how they rank the industries, but only the top 10 appear. Year to date returns. The numbering is how they ranked a month ago.

5. Auto components (+66.2%)

(New). Metals and mining (+62.9%)

(New). Technology hardware, storage and peripherals (+59.0%)

(New). Air freight and logistics (+55.3%)

(New). Internet and direct marketing retail (50.8%)

7. Semiconductors & semiconductor equipment (+50.1%)

(New). Construction and engineering (+44.3%)

(New). Trading companies and distributors (+44.1%)

(New). Electronic equipment, instruments and components (+42.5%)

2. Life sciences tools & Services (+42.3%)

As the list shows, most of the industries are new this month. Auto components posted a blockbuster gain of 66%. The rank, for the three industries which made this list, show
how well they are doing on a consistent basis. I like to see stability, so that a trend in motion remains in motion.

A Brief Look Back

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

Monday: Up 27.37 points.

Tuesday: Up 15.66 points.

Wednesday: Up 424.51 points.

Thursday: Down 559.85 points.

Friday: Down 469.64 points.

For the Week…

The Dow industrials were down 561.95 points or 1.8%.

The Nasdaq composite was down 682.12 points or 4.9%.

The S&P 500 index was down 95.56 points or 2.4%.

Year to Date…

Dow Industrials

     3.4% down from the high of 32,009.64 on 02/24/2021.

     3.6% up from the low of 29,856.30 on 01/29/2021.

Nasdaq

     6.9% down from the high of 14,175.12 on 02/16/2021.

     5.2% up from the low of 12,543.24 on 01/04/2021.

S&P 500

     3.5% down from the high of 3,950.43 on 02/16/2021.

     4.1% up from the low of 3,662.71 on 01/04/2021.

Options Expiration

No options expire this week.

Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, “Take a
two-dimensional approach.” He offers these tips.

• Seekinger doesn’t look at the range of S2 to R2 as support and resistance levels. Rather, he considers them oversold (S) and overbought (R) areas.
• S2 to R2 range of values across daily, weekly, and monthly periods: If two values are close together then they lend more significance to the area.
• If the market trends on day 1, the odds rise tremendously that the market will be range bound between daily S1 and daily R1 the next day.
• In a quiet market when traders are waiting for an important earnings announcement or economic report, look for daily R1 and S1 levels to hold and for the market to return to the daily pivot.
• A move outside of daily R1 or S1 usually does not mean a breakout.
• The odds suggest that the entire week’s price action will remain between weekly R2 and S2.
• Avoid going long when the market moves above weekly R2 (it’s overbought) and avoid going short when price moves below weekly S2 (oversold).
• Consider going short at weekly R1 or long at weekly S1 with a profit objective of the weekly pivot.
• Consider going long at weekly S2 or short at weekly R2 with a profit objective of weekly S1 or R1, respectively.

Here are the formulas:

Pivot point: P = (H + L + C)/3

First resistance level: R1 = (2 * P) – L

First support level: S1 = (2 * P) – H)

Second resistance level: R2 = P + (R1 – S1)

Second support level: S2 = P – (R1 – S1)

H = high price , L=low price, C=closing price

Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season is either underway or should be starting soon. The sessions could be more volatile.

I found 59 pipe bottoms last week, which is very bullish! Large numbers of pipe bottoms often signal the
start of a short to intermediate-term move up before price drops back down, forming an unconfirmed double bottom.

Here’s a symbol list of 166 chart and candlestick patterns (13 “investment grade” candle patterns) found in today’s securities using my version of Patternz:
MMM, AYI, AMD, AFL, ALK, ADS, DOX, AEE, AEO, AEP, AXP, AFG, ABC, APOG, ARCB, ASH, AIZ, ATO, ADSK, ADP, BAX, BBY, BIIB, BMRN, BAH, BBW, CACI, CALM, CAL, CNC, CENX, CSCO, CLF, CNA, CNO, CGNX, ED, CAG, COTY, CRH, CCRN, CSGS, CW, DFS, EMN, EPAM, EVH, EXPD, FFIV, FFG, FOE, FIS, FRD, GME, GNW, GFF, HBI, THG, HSC, HIG, HTLD, HSIC, HSY, HNI, HOLX, HD, INOV, IPAR, ISRG, JKHY, K, KFRC, KBAL, LHX, LZB, LAMR, LNC, RAMP, MHO, MANH, MAN, MRTN, MLI, NCR, NVDA, ORI, ASGN, OUT, OXM, PDCO, PYPL, PCG, POR, PPL, PFG, PEG, RGA, RNG, RLI, ROST, SEE, SIGI, SKX, SO, SCCO, SCS, SRDX, SNPS, TGT, TDOC, TFX, TRV, TREX, SLCA, WRB, WERN, WMB, XEL, XLNX, IHE, DDM, FXI, ICF, IAT, IGE, IYF, EWA, EWO, EWZ, EWC, EEM, EWQ, EWG, EWH, EIS, EWI, EWJ, EWW, EPP, EWS, EWY, EWD, EWT, THD, EWU, PHO, IEV, ILF, MXI, XLF, GLD, XLV. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

The below industries were the best (rank 1) or worst performing of those I follow.

— Thomas Bulkowski