Trading Quiz Tuesday: Yellow Roadway…

Friday 5/7/21. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

$ $ $

Here’s a symbol list of 127 chart and candlestick patterns (13 “investment grade” candle patterns) found in today’s securities using my version of Patternz:
DDD, AXDX, AEIS, ALK, AA, AEO, AEL, AFG, AIG, ANTM, ATR, ADP, AVNT, AVA, AXS, BLL, BAX, BBBY, BBY, BKNG, BOOT, COG, CALM, CPB, CLS, CENX, CHS, CNO, CTSH, CMTL, CSOD, CCRN, DDS, DRQ, BOOM, EZPW, FB, FOE, FIVN, FLIR, FLS, GIS, GPRO, GGG, GFF, HAYN, HL, HSIC, HOV, HUBG, IDXX, ILMN, IBKR, JNJ, KLIC, RAMP, MTSI, M, MCHX, MRTN, MDC, MDCA, MLHR, MS, MYGN, NFLX, NTGR, NJR, NXGN, NI, NWPX, NVDA, OTEX, PDCO, PTEN, PYPL, PRFT, PETS, PPL, KWR, DGX, RGS, RGA, RNG, RLI, RES, SEIC, LUV, SSYS, TPX, TOL, TZOO, TREX, UNM, VEEV, WMT, IEZ, FXL, ICF, IHF, SLV, EWK, EWZ, EWQ, EWH, EZA, TUR, PBE, PXJ, ILF, MXI, GLD, USO. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

The following patterns were found manually, not using Patternz. Mr. Bulkowski has excluded any securities he owns from appearing in the list. However, he may add any of the securities listed to his portfolio at any time, just as you can.

There were 20 patterns found this week (excluding pipe bottoms; pipe tops and bottoms are found looking back 2 weeks) out of 577 stocks searched, or 3.5%. Based on the percentage, the stock market is
trending since few consolidation patterns appear.

I found 5 pipe bottom chart patterns, which is neutral. High numbers of pipe bottoms can signal a bullish move (I see many of them just before a bear market ends or during a bear market rally. Often it means the first bottom of a double bottom has formed. Thus, expect a move down to the second bottom).

Excluding ETFs, there were 14 bullish chart patterns this week and 3 bearish ones with any remaining (8) being undecided.
The ratio of bullish to bearish patterns suggests the market is hinting of a coming bullish (up) turn.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

For details about the chart patterns, click here.

— Thomas Bulkowski

Thursday 5/6/21. Intraday Market Direction: Nasdaq

Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:

     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 214/377 or 56.8% of the time.

     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 58/122 or 47.5% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5-minute scale.

This looks like a bump-and-run reversal, bottom. According to my book,
Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns, 3rd edition,
it ranks first out of 39 for performance.

The red portion is a descending scallop. The blue line is just a trendline sloping downward. The thinking is that when the composite closes above the blue line,
it’ll signal an upward breakout and the index will climb. As the chart shows, the index has been dropping for more than a week now, so this could continue lower.

$ $ $

Here’s a symbol list of 236 chart and candlestick patterns (13 “investment grade” candle patterns) found in today’s securities using my version of Patternz:
ACN, ADBE, ADTN, AEIS, AMD, AES, AA, ADS, AYX, AMZN, DOX, AMED, AEO, AFG, AAPL, ARCB, ATO, AVNT, AVA, BCPC, BLL, BSET, BERY, BBY, BKNG, BOOT, EPAY, BRC, COG, CALM, CE, CX, CVX, CHS, CSCO, CLF, CGNX, CL, CONN, COP, COTY, CR, CREE, CRH, CMI, CW, DHR, DDS, DRQ, DTE, BOOM, EMN, WIRE, EQT, EXC, XOM, EZPW, FFIV, FDS, FDX, FOE, FIS, FIVN, FLS, FMC, FCX, FDP, GPS, GIS, GPN, GL, GS, GPRO, GES, HAYN, HON, HOV, HUBG, JBHT, ILMN, NSP, INTC, TILE, IPG, IPI, JAZZ, KFRC, KMB, LAMR, LANC, LEG, LEN, LNC, MTSI, M, MAN, MCHX, MRTN, MLHR, MS, MYGN, NBR, ^IXIC, NOV, NTAP, NWL, NEU, NEE, NI, NWPX, NVDA, OLN, OTEX, OUT, PTEN, PCG, PICO, PNW, PRU, PEG, DGX, RJF, RGA, RCKY, ROST, RES, CRM, SLB, SMG, SEE, SMTC, SWN, SSYS, SUM, SRDX, SNPS, TDOC, TKR, TOL, RIG, TZOO, TREX, SLCA, UNM, VMI, VEEV, VRSN, V, WLK, WEX, WDAY, XLNX, ZBRA, ITA, IYM, IAI, IYK, IYC, IYE, ITB, IHI, IEO, IEZ, IDU, DDM, FTEC, FDN, FXI, BOTZ, IAT, IYZ, IGV, IGE, EWO, EWZ, EWC, EWG, EIS, EWI, EWJ, EWM, EWS, EWP, EWU, QLD, IBB, PPA, DBA, PBE, PEJ, PXJ, QQQ, IXC, IXN, MXI, XLE, XLF, XLB, XLK, USO, MGK. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day’s high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences),
the area might act as support or resistance.

— Thomas Bulkowski

Wednesday 5/5/21. A Look At Indicators

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

Much to my surprise, the CPI is still bullish, as if it ignored the 1.9% tumble in the Nasdaq. Of course, we’re not looking at the Nasdaq on this chart.
However, at A, you can see that even the S&P dropped today (Tuesday, 0.7%).

Anyway, I drew bearish divergence with the two red lines. One tilts upward and one downward. The divergence suggests a downward move is coming. Maybe it started today…

The red line is the percentage of stocks at least 20% below their 1-year high (plotted upside down). The blue line is the average percentage drop of stocks below their 1-year high (plotted upside down).

The red line took a big dip today, dropping from 9% to 13% of the stocks I follow turning bearish. That’s a big jump.

The blue line also ticked lower from a week ago, but not so you’d notice on the chart.

This chart shows a worsening situation. The prior chart shows bearish divergence. The 2021 forecast update shows the markets declining until
mid to late September. Maybe we’re seeing the beginning of the decline. I have my doubts, though. I expect a drop but suspect this is a fake out. It’s hard to believe the forecast that
things will get bad (3,700 points lower, on the Nasdaq) before markets bottom. The good news is the forecast is rarely correct.

$ $ $

Here’s a symbol list of 160 chart and candlestick patterns (13 “investment grade” candle patterns) found in today’s securities using my version of Patternz:
DDD, ADBE, ADTN, AEIS, AES, AA, ALKS, AYX, DOX, AMED, AEO, AFG, APH, APA, AAPL, AMAT, ARW, ATO, ADSK, AXS, BMI, BCPC, BZH, BERY, BA, BKNG, EPAY, COG, CDNS, CALM, CLS, CNP, CRL, CHKP, CSCO, CLF, CONN, CLGX, CR, CREE, CRH, CROX, DDS, DOV, DRQ, BOOM, EMR, EQT, FFIV, FICO, FLEX, FLIR, FTNT, IT, GPN, GOOGL, GGG, GFF, THG, HAYN, HUBG, ILMN, INFN, NSP, IBKR, NVTA, KALU, KLAC, LRCX, LAWS, LEG, LLY, MTSI, MCHX, MRTN, MLM, MU, MLHR, MOS, MYGN, NWL, NEE, NI, NWPX, NVDA, ASGN, OUT, PANW, PTEN, PETS, PCG, PINC, PEG, QCOM, DGX, RNG, RHI, RES, CRM, SEE, SMTC, SCS, SSYS, SNPS, TDOC, TER, TEVA, SLCA, VMI, VEEV, WLK, WDAY, XLNX, IHI, IEZ, FTEC, FDN, QTEC, FXL, BOTZ, IAT, IGV, SOXX, SLV, IGE, EEM, EWG, EWM, EWS, EWD, EWT, QLD, PBE, PEJ, PXJ, PJP, QQQ, PHO, ROBO, IXN, ILF, XLF, XLK, USO, SMH, MGK. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

— Thomas Bulkowski

Tuesday 5/4/21. Slider Trading Quiz!

Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:

     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 224/393 or 57.0% of the time.

     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 42/87 or 48.3% of the time.

$ $ $

I show another slider trading quiz featuring Yellow Roadway: YELL (actual trade)

$ $ $

Here’s a symbol list of 110 chart and candlestick patterns (13 “investment grade” candle patterns) found in today’s securities using my version of Patternz:
DDD, ACN, ACIW, ADTN, AEIS, AES, ATSG, AIG, AMWD, AMGN, APH, ADM, AVNT, BMI, BZH, BBY, BOOT, BRC, BRKS, CDNS, CE, CENX, CNO, CL, CMTL, CCK, DDS, BOOM, EQT, RE, EXC, FICO, FFG, FLIR, FLS, FWRD, FDP, FRD, GME, GS, HTLD, HOV, HUBG, ILMN, NSP, NVTA, JBLU, KLAC, LMT, L, MHO, MTSI, MDC, MU, NOV, NJR, NWL, NEE, NXGN, NI, NWPX, NVDA, OMCL, OMC, PANW, PKE, PFE, PICO, PG, DGX, RNG, RCKY, SEE, NOW, SCCO, SWN, TPR, TGT, TDOC, TFX, TEVA, UPS, UNM, VMI, VEEV, VMC, WMT, WERN, XLNX, IYK, IYC, DDM, FXI, ICF, IHF, SLV, EWA, EWG, EWJ, EPP, EWS, EWD, EWT, QLD, PPA, PJP, QQQ, XLP. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day’s high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences),
the area might act as support or resistance.

— Thomas Bulkowski

Monday 5/3/21. Market Monday: The Week Ahead

Forecast Update

Here’s the updated 2021 forecast for May, presented in slider format.

Based on sector performance from Fidelity, the best performing sectors for year to date performance as of 30 April 2021 were…
(The numbering is how they ranked a month ago.)

1. Energy (+33.5%)

2. Financials (+23.9%)

6. Communication services (+17.1%)

5. Real estate (+16.5%)

3. Industrials (+15.7%)

4. Materials (+15.6%)

8. Consumer discretionary (+9.9%)

11. Information technology (+8.6%)

7. Health care (+7.1%)

9. Utilities (+5.4%)

10. Consumer staples (+2.5%)

Here’s how they rank the industries, but only the top 10 appear. Year to date returns. The numbering is how they ranked a month ago.

(new) Real estate management and development (35.8%)

1. Oil, Gas and Consumable fuels (+35.4%)

6. Consumer finance (+33.8%)

4. Household durables (+33.2%)

(new) Interactive media and services (30.7%)

5. Banks (+30.0%)

(new) Construction and engineering (+29.7%)

7. Metals and mining (+28.2%)

2. Airlines (+26.3.%)

10. Construction materials (+24.4%)

A Brief Look Back

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

Monday: Down 61.92 points.

Tuesday: Up 3.36 points.

Wednesday: Down 164.55 points.

Thursday: Up 239.98 points.

Friday: Down 185.51 points.

For the Week…

The Dow industrials were down 168.64 points or 0.5%.

The Nasdaq composite was down 54.13 points or 0.4%.

The S&P 500 index was up 1 points or 0.0%.

Year to Date…

Dow Industrials

     1.1% down from the high of 34,256.75 on 04/16/2021.

     13.5% up from the low of 29,856.30 on 01/29/2021.

Nasdaq

     1.8% down from the high of 14,211.57 on 04/29/2021.

     12.6% up from the low of 12,397.05 on 03/05/2021.

S&P 500

     0.9% down from the high of 4,218.78 on 04/29/2021.

     14.2% up from the low of 3,662.71 on 01/04/2021.

Options Expiration

No options expire this week.

Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, “Take a
two-dimensional approach.” He offers these tips.

• Seekinger doesn’t look at the range of S2 to R2 as support and resistance levels. Rather, he considers them oversold (S) and overbought (R) areas.
• S2 to R2 range of values across daily, weekly, and monthly periods: If two values are close together then they lend more significance to the area.
• If the market trends on day 1, the odds rise tremendously that the market will be range bound between daily S1 and daily R1 the next day.
• In a quiet market when traders are waiting for an important earnings announcement or economic report, look for daily R1 and S1 levels to hold and for the market to return to the daily pivot.
• A move outside of daily R1 or S1 usually does not mean a breakout.
• The odds suggest that the entire week’s price action will remain between weekly R2 and S2.
• Avoid going long when the market moves above weekly R2 (it’s overbought) and avoid going short when price moves below weekly S2 (oversold).
• Consider going short at weekly R1 or long at weekly S1 with a profit objective of the weekly pivot.
• Consider going long at weekly S2 or short at weekly R2 with a profit objective of weekly S1 or R1, respectively.

Here are the formulas:

Pivot point: P = (H + L + C)/3

First resistance level: R1 = (2 * P) – L

First support level: S1 = (2 * P) – H)

Second resistance level: R2 = P + (R1 – S1)

Second support level: S2 = P – (R1 – S1)

H = high price , L=low price, C=closing price

Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season is either underway or should be starting soon. The sessions could be more volatile.

Here’s a symbol list of 92 chart and candlestick patterns (13 “investment grade” candle patterns) found in today’s securities using my version of Patternz:
DDD, ACIW, AEIS, AA, AEP, AON, APOG, ASH, ADSK, BCPC, BSET, BECN, BZH, BIO, BOOT, BRKS, CBT, CENX, CSCO, CLX, ED, XRAY, EXP, FDS, FICO, FISV, FIVN, FORM, FTNT, FWRD, GPS, GIS, GPRO, HLIT, HSC, HAYN, HOLX, DHI, IDXX, ILMN, INCY, INFN, INOV, IVC, KBH, KBAL, LB, LAMR, LMT, MDC, MDCA, MYGN, NTAP, NWL, NEE, NI, NVDA, OTEX, PATK, PYPL, PINC, PG, REV, CRM, SO, SCCO, SXI, SSYS, TPX, TRV, SLCA, UGI, VFC, VRTX, WEX, WMB, XLNX, IYK, IHI, FDN, EWM, EWY, XLP, XHB, XLU. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

The below industries were the best (rank 1) or worst performing of those I follow.

— Thomas Bulkowski