Tuesday: 2022 Forecast Update…

Friday 7/8/22. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

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Here’s a symbol list of 77 chart and candlestick patterns (13 “investment grade” candle patterns) found in today’s securities using my version of Patternz:
ABT, ACN, ALRM, AYX, AEE, ABC, AMGN, ARCB, ADSK, AXS, BSET, BBBY, CACI, CENX, CLF, ED, CROX, DHR, BOOM, FISV, FIVN, FLS, FORM, GME, GL, HE, HD, NSP, ISRG, NVTA, JAZZ, LANC, LEG, RAMP, MNDT, MGEE, MLI, NI, NUS, OGE, OMCL, ASGN, OUT, PKE, PYPL, PFE, PCG, PNW, PGR, ROG, CRM, SCCO, SR, SXI, TECH, TDOC, SLCA, UPS, VEEV, VRTX, VC, VMC, WRB, WDAY, XEL, IYM, QTEC, FXL, EWM, EWD, XLP, UNG. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

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You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

The following patterns were found manually, not using Patternz. Mr. Bulkowski has excluded any securities he owns from appearing in the list. However, he may add any of the securities listed to his portfolio at any time, just as you can.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

For details about the chart patterns, click here.

— Thomas Bulkowski

Thursday 7/7/22. Bitcoin Review. Revised!

Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:

     The prediction of the Nasdaq closing higher has been right 239/424 or 56.4% of the time.

     The prediction of the Nasdaq closing lower has been right 64/135 or 47.4% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

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My software stopped reading the file at June 6, so I created an analysis using the wrong chart. This replaces my original post. Thanks to Varga Zoltan for spotting this. Note: You may have to clear your
cache to get the new image to load. The new chart shows point A at the top and point C at the bottom of the pic.

I show a picture of bitcoin (BTC-USD) on the daily scale.

Price peaked at A and dropped to the descending triangle at B. If we assume that the chart pattern is the midway point of a measured move down chart pattern
(or half staff pattern), then the drop measures about 48,000 to 28,000, or 20,000 points. Applying this move from the top of the triangle, about 31,000 – 20,000 gives a target of 11,000. Note that I ignored the spike
at D because it’s an outlier. I’d rather base the measure on the tight move of the triangle.

I’m eyeballing all of these numbers from this chart, so it’s not an accurate guess. Also realize that this type of analysis (using measured moves) rarely works but it does give you an indication of what might happen.
It suggests the coin has about another ~9,000 points to drop.

It’s possible it can drop that far, but to me, it looks like it’s found a bottom here and we’ll see it return to the corrective phase of the measured move down. That’s a rise back up to B, or about 28,000.

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Here’s a symbol list of 81 chart and candlestick patterns (13 “investment grade” candle patterns) found in today’s securities using my version of Patternz:
AXDX, ACN, AEIS, AMD, AES, APD, ATSG, AKAM, ALL, AYX, ABC, APH, AIZ, ADSK, ADP, BCPC, BBBY, BMRN, BLDR, CACI, CALM, CTXS, CLR, COST, DHR, XRAY, EQT, EVH, XOM, EZPW, FORM, FCX, GD, HIG, HQY, HL, IDXX, INCY, IIIN, ITGR, IVC, JKHY, JAZZ, RAMP, MANH, MRTN, MLM, META, MYGN, NWPX, NVDA, OMCL, PTEN, PETS, PLXS, PGR, KWR, QCOM, DGX, RLI, ROG, CRM, SAIC, SRDX, SNPS, TEVA, TRV, VRSN, WAT, WMB, ZBRA, EWM, EZA, EWP, THD, DBA, PJP. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

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The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day’s high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences),
the area might act as support or resistance.

— Thomas Bulkowski

Wednesday 7/6/22. A Look At Indicators

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

The indicator turned bearish today (Tuesday) after the markets put in mixed results. As the thin blue indicator line suggests, the CPI is weakening.

Notice that the index is still trending downward from the peak in January.

The red line is the percentage of stocks at least 20% below their 1-year high (plotted upside down). The blue line is the average percentage drop of stocks below their 1-year high (plotted upside down).

Both lines this week are weaker than they were seven days ago. This chart also shows a downtrend in the red and blue lines, stretching back to the start of the chart on the far left.

The two charts this weak are bearish. The one above is more bullish than the CPI, I think. Why? Because the indicator moved up during the last two weeks, so it looks more like a retrace in a short-term uptrend.

I expect a resumption of the uptrend.

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Here’s a symbol list of 199 chart and candlestick patterns (13 “investment grade” candle patterns) found in today’s securities using my version of Patternz:
DDD, ABT, AEIS, AJRD, AFL, ATSG, AKAM, AA, ALL, AMED, AEE, AEP, AMGN, AAPL, ATR, ASH, ATO, AVY, AVA, AZTA, BALL, BSET, BERY, BIO, BKH, BKNG, BRC, BLDR, CACI, CDNS, CALM, CAL, CX, CNP, CRL, CSCO, CNA, CNO, ED, CLR, COTY, CRH, CROX, CW, D, DTE, DUK, EIX, ELV, EQT, XOM, FICO, FIS, FISV, FTNT, FCX, GME, IT, GE, GGG, EVRG, GES, HLIT, HE, HL, HSII, HP, DHI, HOV, IDA, ILMN, INFN, NSP, IBP, ITGR, IPAR, INTU, NVTA, JKHY, JBLU, KBH, KELYA, KFRC, LHX, LDOS, LEN, LXU, MHO, MCHX, MAS, MTRN, MDC, MGEE, MSFT, MLKN, MCO, MOS, NCR, NJR, NWL, NEE, NXGN, NI, NWPX, OXY, OGE, ORI, ASGN, OMI, PATK, PTEN, PYPL, PRFT, PNW, PLXS, POR, PPG, PPL, PG, PGR, PEG, PHM, KWR, RGA, RNG, RLI, RHI, ROK, ROST, CRM, SMG, SRE, SKX, SO, SWX, SR, SCS, TDOC, TER, TOL, TZOO, TG, TREX, UNM, VRSN, WAT, WWW, WDAY, XEL, ZBRA, IAI, IYC, ITB, IDU, FTEC, FDN, QQQ, IGV, IHI, EWO, EWK, EWZ, EEM, EWQ, EWG, EWI, EWM, EWS, EZA, EWP, THD, TUR, EWU, QLD, DBA, PHO, IEV, MXI, XLP, XHB, XLK, XLU, USO, MGK. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

— Thomas Bulkowski

Tuesday 7/5/22. 2022 Forecast Update

I released a new version of Patternz. It has some algorithm enhancements and bug fixes.

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Here’s the updated 2022 forecast, presented in slider format.

Based on sector performance from Fidelity, the best performing sectors for year-to-date performance as of 30 June 2022 were…
(The numbering is how they ranked a month ago.)

1. Energy (+29%)

2. Utilities (-2%)

3. Consumer staples (-7%)

5. Health care (-9%)

7. Industrials (-17%)

4. Materials (-19%)

6. Financials (-19%)

8. Real estate (-21%)

9. Information technology (-27%)

10. Communication services (-30%)

11. Consumer discretionary (-33%)

The folks at two firms polled by Fidelity weigh the sectors in this order, as of 6/21/22.

1. Information technology (IT)

2. Health care

4. Consumer discretionary

3. Financials

5. Communication services

6. Industrials

7. Consumer staples

8. Energy

9. Utilities

11. Real estate

10. Materials

Here’s how they rank the industries, but only the top 10 appear. One-year change, as of 6/30. The numbering is how they ranked a month ago.

3. Construction and engineering (+38%)

1. Oil, gas and consumable fuels (+37%)

2. Energy equipment and services (+21%)

6. Health care providers and services (+18%)

4. Pharmaceuticals (+18%)

7. Multi-utilities (+14%)

New. Beverages (+12%)

9. Electric utilities (11%)

New. Insurance (8%)

New. Food products (8%)

Here’s a symbol list of 166 chart and candlestick patterns (13 “investment grade” candle patterns) found in today’s securities using my version of Patternz:
MMM, ABT, AMD, AJRD, ATSG, ALRM, AA, ALL, AEE, AEP, AEL, AMAT, ATR, ASH, ATO, AVY, AVA, BCPC, BALL, BERY, BIO, BKH, BRC, BMY, BLDR, CACI, CAL, CNP, CRL, CHKP, CNO, ED, COST, CW, DDS, ^DJU, D, DTE, DUK, EIX, ELV, FICO, FISV, FORM, FCX, GME, GIS, EVRG, HE, HQY, HTLD, HL, HSII, HELE, HP, HSIC, DHI, HOV, HUBG, HURC, IDA, ITW, NSP, IBP, IIIN, ITGR, IPAR, IBKR, TILE, IVC, JKHY, KBH, KELYA, KFRC, KLAC, KSS, LHX, LZB, LRCX, LDOS, LEN, MHO, MCHX, MAS, MDC, MGEE, MU, MCO, MUR, MYGN, CNR, NJR, NWL, NEE, NI, OXY, OGE, ORI, OMCL, ASGN, PANW, PTEN, PETS, PNW, POR, PPG, PPL, PG, PGR, PEG, PHM, KWR, QCOM, RGA, RLI, SAIC, SRE, SKX, SO, SWX, SR, TEVA, TMO, TOL, RIG, TREX, SLCA, UPS, UNM, VRSN, WAT, XEL, ITB, IEZ, IDU, SLV, IHI, EWZ, EZA, EWT, DBA, PHO, ILF, XLP, XHB, XAR, XLU. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

The below industries were the best (rank 1) or worst performing of those I follow.

— Thomas Bulkowski

Friday 7/1/22. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

$ $ $

Here’s a symbol list of 253 chart and candlestick patterns (13 “investment grade” candle patterns) found in today’s securities using my version of Patternz:
ABT, AXDX, ACIW, AYI, AMD, AJRD, AFL, ATSG, AA, ALL, AMZN, AEE, AEO, AEP, AFG, AMWD, ATR, ARCB, ACGL, ARW, ASH, AGO, ATO, ADSK, AVY, AVA, BALL, BSET, BERY, BBY, BIG, BIO, BKH, BKNG, BOOT, BRC, BMY, BLDR, CACI, CAL, CNP, CRL, CINF, CNO, CGNX, ED, CONN, COP, COST, COTY, CMI, CW, XRAY, DVN, DDS, ^DJU, D, DTE, DUK, EIX, ELV, EOG, EQT, XOM, FICO, FIS, FLS, FORM, FRD, GME, GPS, GD, EVRG, GES, THG, HLIT, HE, HL, HSII, HELE, HP, HNI, DHI, HOV, IDA, NSP, IBP, ITGR, IPAR, JKHY, JNJ, KBH, KELYA, KFRC, LHX, LZB, LDOS, LEN, LMT, MHO, MTSI, M, MANH, MRO, MAS, MDC, MGEE, MLKN, MCO, MS, MUR, NOV, NTGR, NJR, NWL, NEE, NI, JWN, NOC, NWPX, NUS, NVDA, OXY, OGE, ORI, OMCL, OMC, ASGN, OTEX, PKG, PATK, PTEN, PYPL, PNW, POR, PPG, PPL, PG, PGR, PRU, PEG, PHM, KWR, QCOM, RL, RGS, RGA, RNG, RLI, RCKY, ROST, CRM, SLB, SMG, SEIC, SRE, SLGN, SO, SCCO, SWX, SR, SXI, SCS, TPR, TXT, TJX, TOL, RIG, TRV, TREX, SLCA, UNM, VFC, VLO, VRSN, V, VC, WAT, WERN, WU, WSM, WWW, WDAY, XEL, ITA, IAI, IYE, ITB, IHE, IDU, DDM, IAT, IGE, IEO, IYF, IHI, EWA, EWO, EWK, EWG, EPP, EWS, EZA, EWD, EWT, EWU, PPA, PHO, IXC, MXI, XLP, XLE, XLF, XHB, XRT, XLU, UNG, USO. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

The following patterns were found manually, not using Patternz. Mr. Bulkowski has excluded any securities he owns from appearing in the list. However, he may add any of the securities listed to his portfolio at any time, just as you can.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

For details about the chart patterns, click here.

— Thomas Bulkowski