BIGtheme.net http://bigtheme.net/ecommerce/opencart OpenCart Templates
Home / Charting / Tutorial Tuesday: Up Trendlines…
BBlog.jpg

Tutorial Tuesday: Up Trendlines…

Blog: March 2020

Bulkowski's Blog: ThePatternSite.com

As of 03/05/2020

  Indus: 26,121 -969.58 -3.6%  

  Trans: 9,011 -501.13 -5.3%  

  Utils: 908 -18.00 -1.9%  

  Nasdaq: 8,739 -279.49 -3.1%  

  S&P 500: 3,024 -106.18 -3.4%  

YTD

-8.5%  

-17.3%  

 +3.3%  

-2.6%  

-6.4%  

  Up arrow27,300 or 25,300 by 03/15/2020
  Up arrow10,200 or 8,800 by 03/15/2020
  Up arrow925 or 840 by 03/15/2020
  Up arrow9,200 or 8,300 by 03/15/2020
  Up arrow3,150 or 2,900 by 03/15/2020

As of 03/05/2020

  Indus: 26,121 -969.58 -3.6%  

  Trans: 9,011 -501.13 -5.3%  

  Utils: 908 -18.00 -1.9%  

  Nasdaq: 8,739 -279.49 -3.1%  

  S&P 500: 3,024 -106.18 -3.4%  

YTD

-8.5%  

-17.3%  

 +3.3%  

-2.6%  

-6.4%  

  Up arrow27,300 or 25,300 by 03/15/2020
  Up arrow10,200 or 8,800 by 03/15/2020
  Up arrow925 or 840 by 03/15/2020
  Up arrow9,200 or 8,300 by 03/15/2020
  Up arrow3,150 or 2,900 by 03/15/2020

 


Friday 3/6/20. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

Go to Table.

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

Click the link for a list of symbols from the table.

The following patterns were found manually, so the results may differ from those found using Patternz.

Mr. Bulkowski has excluded any securities he owns from appearing in the list. However, he may add any of the securities listed to his portfolio at any time, just as you can.

There were 12 patterns found this week (excluding pipe bottoms; pipe tops and bottoms are found looking back 2 weeks) out of 595 stocks searched, or 2.0%. Based on the percentage, the stock market is
trending
since few consolidation patterns appear.

I found 1 pipe bottom chart patterns, which is neutral. High numbers of pipe bottoms can signal a bullish move (I see many of them just before a bear market ends or during a bear market rally. Often it means the first bottom of a double bottom has formed. Thus, expect a move down to the second bottom).

Excluding ETFs, there were 1 bullish chart patterns this week and 7 bearish ones with any remaining (5) being undecided.
The ratio of bullish to bearish patterns suggests the market is bearish.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

More…

— Thomas Bulkowski

 

 

Weekly screen for chart patterns ending between 02/27/2020 and 03/05/2020. Many may be still in development. If no securities appear, then I have not identified any new patterns.

Definitions

RS is relative strength (where 1 is best). For other definitions, see the glossary.

’Breakout is upward/downward 100% of the time’ means price breaks out up/down by definition, not by statistically measuring the rate.

All numbers assume a bull market and are based on the breakout direction that occurs most often.

 

Alarm.com Holdings inc (ALRM)

Industry: Computer Software and Svcs

Industry RS rank: 8 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 347 out of 590

3/5/20 close: $46.06

1 Month avg volatility: $1.81. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $50.40 or 9.4% above the close.

Change YTD: 7.19%

Volume: 583,500 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.

 

Chart pattern: Broadening top, right-angled and ascending reversal pattern from 02/07/2020 to 03/05/2020

Breakout is downward 66% of the time.

Average decline: 15%.

Break-even failure rate: 20%.

Pullbacks occur 65% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 32% of the time.

Top

Big Lots Inc. (BIG)

Industry: Retail Store

Industry RS rank: 35 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 540 out of 590

3/5/20 close: $16.61

1 Month avg volatility: $1.21. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $20.20 or 21.6% above the close.

Change YTD: -42.17%

Volume: 1,908,600 shares.
3 month avg: 984,457 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Thursday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Monday.

 

Chart pattern: Dead-cat bounce continuation pattern from 02/27/2020 to 02/28/2020

Breakout is downward 67% of the time.

Average decline: 18%.

Top

Ciena Corp (CIEN)

Industry: Telecom. Equipment

Industry RS rank: 45 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 188 out of 590

3/5/20 close: $42.88

1 Month avg volatility: $1.36. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $38.36 or 10.5% below the close.

Change YTD: 0.45%

Volume: 5,827,600 shares.
3 month avg: 3,226,991 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.

 

Chart pattern: V bottoms from 02/21/2020 to 03/05/2020

Top

Comtech Telecommunications Corp (CMTL)

Industry: Telecom. Equipment

Industry RS rank: 45 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 437 out of 590

3/5/20 close: $23.51

1 Month avg volatility: $1.34. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $29.88 or 27.1% above the close.

Change YTD: -33.76%

Volume: 957,800 shares.
3 month avg: 255,535 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.

 

Chart pattern: Dead-cat bounce continuation pattern from 03/05/2020 to 03/05/2020

Breakout is downward 67% of the time.

Average decline: 18%.

Top

Cypress Semiconductor (CY)

Industry: Semiconductor

Industry RS rank: 1 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 484 out of 590

3/5/20 close: $19.18

1 Month avg volatility: $0.34. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $23.83 or 24.3% above the close.

Change YTD: -17.79%

Volume: 47,251,700 shares.
3 month avg: 5,847,760 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.

 

Chart pattern: Dead-cat bounce continuation pattern from 03/05/2020 to 03/05/2020

Breakout is downward 67% of the time.

Average decline: 18%.

Top

Equifax Inc (EFX)

Industry: Information Services

Industry RS rank: 31 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 137 out of 590

3/5/20 close: $158.25

1 Month avg volatility: $4.29. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $147.11 or 7.0% below the close.

Change YTD: 12.94%

Volume: 1,703,300 shares.
3 month avg: 3,458,600 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.

 

Chart pattern: V bottoms from 02/21/2020 to 03/04/2020

Top

FactSet Research Systems Inc (FDS)

Industry: Information Services

Industry RS rank: 31 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 157 out of 590

3/5/20 close: $288.85

1 Month avg volatility: $7.47. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $270.62 or 6.3% below the close.

Change YTD: 7.66%

Volume: 551,500 shares.
3 month avg: 411,949 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.

 

Chart pattern: V bottoms from 02/25/2020 to 03/04/2020

Top

Genworth Financial Inc (GNW)

Industry: Insurance (Life)

Industry RS rank: 51 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 172 out of 590

3/5/20 close: $4.65

1 Month avg volatility: $0.18. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $4.20 or 9.6% below the close.

Change YTD: 5.68%

Volume: 9,431,100 shares.
3 month avg: 4,022,160 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.

 

Chart pattern: Double Bottom, Eve and Adam reversal pattern from 02/05/2020 to 02/28/2020

Breakout is upward 100% of the time.

Average rise: 35%.

Break-even failure rate: 4%.

Throwbacks occur 57% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

Top

Jack Henry and Associates (JKHY)

Industry: IT Services

Industry RS rank: 15 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 91 out of 590

3/5/20 close: $164.99

1 Month avg volatility: $4.21. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $152.02 or 7.9% below the close.

Change YTD: 13.26%

Volume: 833,900 shares.
3 month avg: 329,005 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.

 

Chart pattern: V bottoms from 02/21/2020 to 03/04/2020

Top

Nabors Industries, Ltd. (NBR)

Industry: Oilfield Svcs/Equipment

Industry RS rank: 58 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 543 out of 590

3/5/20 close: $1.34

1 Month avg volatility: $0.16. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $1.91 or 42.2% above the close.

Change YTD: -53.47%

Volume: 19,772,700 shares.
3 month avg: 10,861,705 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.

 

Chart pattern: Dead-cat bounce continuation pattern from 03/03/2020 to 03/05/2020

Breakout is downward 67% of the time.

Average decline: 18%.

Top

Owens and Minor Inc (OMI)

Industry: Medical Supplies

Industry RS rank: 12 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 386 out of 590

3/5/20 close: $5.93

1 Month avg volatility: $0.56. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $7.05 or 18.9% above the close.

Change YTD: 14.70%

Volume: 3,186,500 shares.
3 month avg: 1,318,423 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Monday.

 

Chart pattern: Dead-cat bounce continuation pattern from 03/03/2020 to 03/05/2020

Breakout is downward 67% of the time.

Average decline: 18%.

Top

Rogers Corp (ROG)

Industry: Electronics

Industry RS rank: 14 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 442 out of 590

3/5/20 close: $116.87

1 Month avg volatility: $4.51. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $105.94 or 9.4% below the close.

Change YTD: -6.30%

Volume: 238,800 shares.
3 month avg: 155,332 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.

 

Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 02/18/2020 to 02/24/2020

Breakout is upward 100% of the time.

Average rise: 45%.

Break-even failure rate: 5%.

Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

Top

Vertex Pharmaceuticals (VRTX)

Industry: Biotechnology

Industry RS rank: 6 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 25 out of 590

3/5/20 close: $237.31

1 Month avg volatility: $7.71. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $257.61 or 8.6% above the close.

Change YTD: 8.39%

Volume: 1,512,600 shares.
3 month avg: 1,548,174 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.

 

Chart pattern: Broadening top reversal pattern from 01/09/2020 to 02/28/2020

Breakout is downward 50% of the time.

Average decline: 15%.

Break-even failure rate: 18%.

Pullbacks occur 48% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 37% of the time.

Top


Thursday 3/5/20. Intraday Market Direction: Nasdaq

The index climbed by 3.8% or 334 points. Since 02/05/1971 the index made 3 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day’s…

     Average gain was 1.4% on 2 occasions.

     Average loss was -2.6% on 1 occasions.

Expect the index to close higher 66.7% of the time.

Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:

     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 186/331 or 56.2% of the time.

     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 54/106 or 50.9% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5 minute scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5-minute scale.

Despite today’s strong move higher, the CPI (chart pattern indicator) remains at 0%. That’s as low as it can go, so it wasn’t impressed by today’s move.

As to the Nasdaq, the chart shows a head-and-shoulders top chart pattern at ABC. The red line is the neckline. A close below the line signals a valid chart pattern in this
case. It appears the index cooperated by dropping to meet the measure rule target (the distance from the peak at the head, B, to the neckline directly below) subtracted from the breakout
(where the index crosses the red line).

I’m struck by the two green lines, how the uptrend is nearly parallel on both lines. I don’t know what it means, but I like the symmetry.

The index is near or at overhead resistance (9000) but it’s really useless to say the index will drop or continue rising. Intraday, overnight, the markets will gap open higher or lower
and seem to do what they feel instead of obeying technical analysis guidelines.

The above guidelines say the markets will close higher on Thursday, but it’s based on just 3 samples. Uncharted territory, really.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day’s high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences),
the area might act as support or resistance.

— Thomas Bulkowski

Top

© 2020 ThePatternSite.com    Metric   Value   Diff   Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2   7,466.00      
 Weekly S2   7,809.66   343.66   
 Monthly S1   8,242.04   432.39   
 Weekly S1   8,413.87   171.83   
 Daily S2   8,669.60   255.73   
 Low   8,757.66   88.06   
 Open   8,834.10   76.44   
 Daily S1   8,843.85   9.75   Yes! The Daily S1 is close to the Open.
 61.8% Down from Intraday High   8,857.86   14.01   Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily S1.
 Weekly Pivot   8,868.38   10.52   Yes! The Weekly Pivot is close to the 61.8% Down from Intraday High.
 50% Down from Intraday High   8,888.81   20.43   Yes! The 50% Down from Intraday High is close to the Weekly Pivot.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High   8,919.76   30.95   
 Daily Pivot   8,931.90   12.14   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High.
 Close   9,018.09   86.19   
 High   9,019.96   1.87   Yes! The High is close to the Close.
 Monthly Pivot   9,040.21   20.25   Yes! The Monthly Pivot is close to the High.
 Daily R1   9,106.15   65.94   
 Daily R2   9,194.20   88.06   
 Weekly R1   9,472.59   278.39   
 Monthly R1   9,816.25   343.66   
 Weekly R2   9,927.10   110.84   
 Monthly R2   10,614.42   687.32   


Wednesday 3/4/20. A Bottom in Place?

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

The vertical red bar on the far right of the chart says that the indicator is still bearish.

If you look at the thin blue line near the bottom of the chart, you’ll see it’s at or very close to 0. I can’t remember it being that low for so long. Of course, there’s nowhere to go but up.

That’s my feeling. I’m bullish. I think the index may drop to the low of A. That would form an unconfirmed double bottom, with the index finding a bottom at A. We might slide sideways
as more bad news arrives about the spread of covid 19. Of course, the index could continue lower or it could reach the price of A and bounce higher. Much higher. So there’s lots of uncertainty.
One factor is almost a lock and that’s volatility. If you’re a day trader, you’ll be in heaven (or hell, if you guess wrong). For others who hold longer, just sit tight an a trend will emerge with
huge swings up and down.

Picture of the percent down indicators

The red line is the percentage of stocks at least 20% below their 1-year high (plotted upside down). The blue line is the average percentage drop of stocks below their 1-year high (plotted upside down).

Shown as a red line on the above chart…

On Tuesday, 52% of stocks in my database are in bear market territory (down at least 20% from their 1-year high).

A week ago, it was 40%.

The fewest was 21% on 01/16/2020.

And the most was 54% on 02/28/2020.

Shown as a blue line on the above chart…

The 489 stocks in my database are down an average of 25% from their yearly high.

A week ago, the average was 21%.

The peak was 11% on 01/16/2020.

And the bottom was 25% on 02/28/2020.

Both lines suffered massive drops over the past week. Even the big rally sucked the lines up but they tumbled again today (Tuesday).

As I’ve mentioned often enough, these two lines (the red and blue) really follow how the indices move. If the index rises, so does the two lines, with the red more sensitive of the two colors.

It is interesting that the bearish divergence shown on the chart as three green lines, correctly predicted the drop well ahead of time. Of course, divergence is a weak signal because the index
and the two colored lines can diverge for months and nothing happens in the index. It’s gratifying when it does work, though.

— Thomas Bulkowski

Top


Tuesday 3/3/20. Slider Tutorial: Up Trendlines!

The index climbed by 5.1% or 1293.96 points. Since 10/01/1928 the index made 3 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day’s…

     Average gain was 2.7% on 2 occasions.

     Average loss was -1.0% on 1 occasions.

Expect the index to close higher 66.7% of the time.

Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:

     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 200/343 or 58.3% of the time.

     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 39/78 or 50.0% of the time.

$ $ $

As good as today’s (Monday’s) rally was, the CPI (chart pattern indicator, see the grid at page top) is still bearish (that’s the latest bull or bear signal. The indicator is actually neutral). The needle moved, but not much. So I’m concerned about another drop today. I’m just saying…

$ $ $

I show a another slider quiz featuring up trendlines. It’s not as exciting as losing or gaining the price of your house in one session, but
it’s better than watching political commercials.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day’s high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences),
the area might act as support or resistance.

— Thomas Bulkowski

Top

© 2020 ThePatternSite.com    Metric   Value   Diff   Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2   22,096.74      
 Weekly S2   22,873.83   777.09   
 Monthly S1   24,400.03   1,526.20   
 Weekly S1   24,788.58   388.55   
 Daily S2   24,952.94   164.36   
 Low   25,391.96   439.02   
 Open   25,590.51   198.55   
 Daily S1   25,828.13   237.62   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High   25,893.99   65.86   Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily S1.
 50% Down from Intraday High   26,049.06   155.08   
 38.2% Down from Intraday High   26,204.14   155.08   
 Daily Pivot   26,267.15   63.01   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High.
 Weekly Pivot   26,595.75   328.60   
 Close   26,703.32   107.57   Yes! The Close is close to the Weekly Pivot.
 High   26,706.17   2.85   Yes! The High is close to the Close.
 Monthly Pivot   26,984.30   278.13   
 Daily R1   27,142.34   158.04   
 Daily R2   27,581.36   439.02   
 Weekly R1   28,510.50   929.14   
 Monthly R1   29,287.59   777.09   
 Weekly R2   30,317.67   1,030.08   
 Monthly R2   31,871.86   1,554.19   


Monday 3/2/20. Market Monday: The Week Ahead

My Prediction

Picture of the Dow industrials on the daily scale.

I show the Dow industrials on the weekly scale, not the daily. I did this to show where the nearest support level is.

I drew the horizontal red line from the Dow’s bottom spike, and to the left. That line is one of support, I think.

I’m going to stick my neck out and I’ll be the first to say I’ve been wrong before, but I think we’ve put in a bottom in the Dow. Some of my stocks on Friday gained a bit. That’s good news.
It gives me hope that we’ll rise from here.

Traders will begin to understand that the worst is over in China and they’ll be able to restart their plants, pumping out goods to the US and worldwide. I may be premature, but that’s
what I see happening.

So I’m hopeful. Other than a guess, I don’t see any signs of a turn. The index did stop at a support level.

Based on the chart, I would have expected the index to hit support earlier and turned, so it’s well oversold in my view. Bad news will continue to dribble out, especially when the virus ramps up
in the US, so we’ll have to see if the turn will be V-shaped or just move horizontally in a bumpy up and down movement.

Top

A Brief Look Back

Picture of a flower from my garden.

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

Monday: Down 1031.61 points.

Tuesday: Down 879.44 points.

Wednesday: Down 123.77 points.

Thursday: Down 1190.95 points.

Friday: Down 357.28 points.

For the Week…

The Dow industrials were down 3583.05 points or 12.4%.

The Nasdaq composite was down 1009.22 points or 10.5%.

The S&P 500 index was down 383.53 points or 11.5%.

Year to Date…

Dow Industrials

     14.1% down from the high of 29,568.57 on 02/12/2020.

     3.0% up from the low of 24,681.01 on 02/28/2020.

Nasdaq

     12.9% down from the high of 9,838.37 on 02/19/2020.

     3.7% up from the low of 8,264.16 on 02/28/2020.

S&P 500

     12.9% down from the high of 3,393.52 on 02/19/2020.

     3.4% up from the low of 2,855.84 on 02/28/2020.

Options Expiration

No options expire this week.

Top

Swing and Position Traders: Chart Pattern Indicator

As of 02/28/2020, the CPI had:

6 bearish patterns,

0 bullish patterns,

11 patterns waiting for breakout.

The CPI signal is 0.0%, which is
bearish (<= 35%).

The chart pattern indicator is bearish
with 2 of 3 full triangles showing (). Additional triangles are a measure
of strength with solid triangles meaning a more reliable signal than half triangles.

Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, “Take a
two-dimensional approach.” He offers these tips.

Index S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2
Dow Industrials (^DJI): Daily   24,382   24,896   25,195   25,709   26,008 
Weekly   22,443   23,926   26,164   27,648   29,886 
Monthly   21,665   23,537   26,553   28,425   31,441 
S&P500 (^GSPC): Daily   2,819   2,887   2,923   2,991   3,027 
Weekly   2,619   2,787   3,023   3,191   3,427 
Monthly   2,530   2,742   3,068   3,280   3,606 
Nasdaq (^IXIC): Daily   8,147   8,357   8,474   8,685   8,802 
Weekly   7,659   8,113   8,718   9,172   9,777 
Monthly   7,316   7,942   8,890   9,516   10,464 
  • Seekinger doesn’t look at the range of S2 to R2 as support and resistance levels. Rather, he considers them oversold (S) and overbought (R) areas.
  • S2 to R2 range of values across daily, weekly, and monthly periods: If two values are close together then they lend more significance to the area.
  • If the market trends on day 1, the odds rise tremendously that the market will be range bound between daily S1 and daily R1 the next day.
  • In a quiet market when traders are waiting for an important earnings announcement or economic report, look for daily R1 and S1 levels to hold and for the market to return to the daily pivot.
  • A move outside of daily R1 or S1 usually does not mean a breakout.
  • The odds suggest that the entire week’s price action will remain between weekly R2 and S2.
  • Avoid going long when the market moves above weekly R2 (it’s overbought) and avoid going short when price moves below weekly S2 (oversold).
  • Consider going short at weekly R1 or long at weekly S1 with a profit objective of the weekly pivot.
  • Consider going long at weekly S2 or short at weekly R2 with a profit objective of weekly S1 or R1, respectively.

Here are the formulas:

Pivot point: P = (H + L + C)/3

First resistance level: R1 = (2 * P) – L

First support level: S1 = (2 * P) – H)

Second resistance level: R2 = P + (R1 – S1)

Second support level: S2 = P – (R1 – S1)

H = high price , L=low price, C=closing price

Top

Consecutive Price Trends

Index  Consecutive
Closes So Far 
%  Comments 
 Dow industrials (^DJI)  2 weeks down  13.8%   Expect a reversal soon. 
  2 months down  11.3%   Expect a reversal soon. 
 S & P 500 (^GSPC)  2 weeks down  11.7%   Expect a reversal soon. 
  2 months down  11.9%   Expect a reversal soon. 
 Nasdaq composite (^IXIC)  2 weeks down  13.8%   Expect a reversal soon. 
  1 month down  26.2%   The trend may continue. 

How long can an index close higher (or lower) each day? The adjacent table shows how often consecutive up or down closes occur in the indices, based on the most recent trend of closes.

Low percentages suggest the market is overdue to turn (think of it as the likelihood that next week or next month will continue the trend, based on historical performance). Values of 50% mean random, so most percentages will be lower.

The analysis uses data going back 10 years for weekly percentages and 25 years for monthly percentages (or the start of data, whichever is more recent). Any unchanged closing price is interpreted as the end of the string of consecutive up or down closes.

Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season is either underway or should be starting soon. The sessions could be more volatile.

 Found  Chart Pattern Name
20 Pipe bottom
18 Double Top, Adam and Adam
16 Pipe top
16 Triple top
15 Dead-cat bounce
14 Double Bottom, Adam and Adam
11 Double Top, Adam and Eve
10 Double Top, Eve and Eve
8 Broadening top
8 Triangle, symmetrical

Large numbers of bullish or bearish chart patterns can signal short- to intermediate-term market trends (many bullish chart patterns can mean an uptrend will continue, for example).
However, please realize that the short-term price trend could have changed since the pattern was discovered (this is especially true of pipe tops or bottoms, which are weekly patterns).

The 10 types of most frequently appearing chart patterns in the stocks, indices, and long-only exchange traded funds I follow during the last month are shown in the adjacent table.

The industries I follow were the best (rank 1) and worst performing.

This Week Last Week
1. Semiconductor 1. Semiconductor
2. Semiconductor Cap Equip. 2. Homebuilding
3. Homebuilding 3. Computers and Peripherals
4. Healthcare Information 4. Semiconductor Cap Equip.
5. Computers and Peripherals 5. Shoe

— Thomas Bulkowski

Top


Source link


About admin

Check Also

BBlog.jpg

Chart Pattern Indicator: What's It Say?…

Bulkowski’s Blog: December 2019 As of 12/06/2019   Indus: 28,015 +337.27 +1.2%     Trans: 10,709 +133.66 +1.3%     Utils: 855 ...

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

NFL Jerseys 2019