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The Hole Is Already Too Deep…

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A man shovels himself deep into a hole. He then wishes to climb out. What must he do first? He must stop the digging. Yet the United States government has shoveled itself into a $28 trillion hole. How does it plan to rise out of it? By digging deeper… and ...

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Wrong… Again…

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The Federal Reserve met last week and voted to keep interest rates unchanged. What a shock! The Fed also gave an upbeat forecast of economic growth, predicting that the U.S. economy will grow 6.5% this year, its highest rate in nearly 40 years. Its December 2020 forecast projected 4.2% growth. ...

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What’s the Real Price of Gold?…

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What’s the price of gold? That seems like a ridiculously easy question to answer. I’m looking at a trading screen right now, and it displays a price of $1,733.80 per ounce. That price may change a bit by the time you read this, but it would only take a fresh ...

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The Triumph of Politics Over Science…

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After World War II, as the economy was converted from a garrison state to meet civilian needs, economists predicted dire times. Just as after World War I, conventional academic wisdom saw no upside to the end of wartime spending that, according to academic legend, ended the Great Depression. A sweeping ...

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Fed Lets Circus Roll On…

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The Federal Reserve sat idle on its hands today. And so the federal funds rate stays nailed to the floorboards. Monthly asset purchases will roll on at $120 billion the month. Markets feared that Mr. Powell and mates might telegraph hawkish hints today as growth — and inflation — bubble ...

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“An Incredibly Important Turning Point”…

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Fact #1: Reams of stocks have been trading at 52-week highs. Fact #2: Reams of stocks have been trading at 52-week lows. Not since 1984 — the year not the book — has the stock market manifested such violent schizophrenia. Sentiment Trader: [We recently saw] the biggest split in almost ...

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The Greatest Problem of Investors…

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“The financial memory,” argued John Kenneth Galbraith, “should be assumed to last, at a maximum, no more than 20 years.” Why 20 years? This is normally the time it takes for the recollection of one disaster to be erased and for some variant on previous dementia to come forward to ...

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The “Bros” Are Preparing Their Next Attack…

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Most investors have heard of the GameStop frenzy. GameStop is a brick-and-mortar retail outlet for video games, equipment and accessories. It has long been considered a dying company by Wall Street because it does not have a strong online presence. It seemed to be headed in the same direction as ...

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Jerome Powell Rocks the Market…

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Poor Jerome Powell. This unlikely Atlas bears all the world’s weight upon his slender shoulders. We hazard he ages one year for each torturous day he lives. Anything he mumbles — or fails to mumble — can send markets careening. Early yesterday afternoon, he mumbled something to The Wall Street ...

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The American Rescue Plan…

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Today the sun glows brighter… The air is crisper, the grass grows greener, the birds chirp louder. There is more joy in heaven… For rescue is at hand. On Saturday, the United States Senate passed Mr. Biden’s $1.9 trillion “stimulus” package — the American Rescue Plan by title. Tomorrow it ...

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