Reports

Remember all those “green shoots?” That was the ubiquitous phrase used by White House officials and TV talking heads in 2009 to describe how the U.S. economy was coming back to life after the 2008 global financial crisis. The problem was we did not get green shoots; what we got ...

IN the early days of the coronavirus outbreak there was a robust debate about the source. Obviously, this outbreak started in Wuhan, China late in 2019 and spread from there, first to other parts of China then to the entire world. More specifically, scientists and intelligence officials debated whether the ...

There is one story that may be bigger than the elections, the riots and the pandemic, but it will take a few years to play out. The U.S. will convert China’s $1.4 trillion of Treasury notes to a trust fund for COVID-19 victims and economic damages. In other words, say ...

What is the most dangerous investing decision you can presently make? Your choices are these: A): Buying and holding through thick, through thin, through peak, through valley B): Loading up on “FAANG” stocks (Facebook, Apple, Amazon, Netflix, Google) — plus Microsoft C): Chasing biotechnology stocks in pursuit of a COVID ...

OUR prophecy has come evidently to pass… On September 3, we warned that September — not October — is the stock market’s most treacherous month. With the pleasure of repeating ourself: September is the great thief of investor money, not October. Here is his evidence — the red-handed evidence: Three ...

Investors need to be on guard against one or more surprises that can come without warning. I call these the “wildcards” in the election season. It’s hard to know which one might emerge, but it’s not hard to forecast that at least one of them will. Investors should prepare accordingly. ...

UNEMPLOYMENT skyrocketed in March and April, during the worst stage of the pandemic and the lockdowns that followed. The unemployment rate approached 15% in April and total initial claims for unemployment benefits exceeded 59 million between March and August. This was the worst episode of unemployment since The Great Depression ...

THE underlying economy (U.S. and global) has a strong deflationary bias. Central banks can’t tolerate deflation, so they respond with inflationary measures such as money printing, zero rates and guarantees of all major securities markets. Those policies won’t actually cause inflation, for reasons explained below. But, they will cause bubbles ...

Yesterday’s reckoning about mask-wearing drew a heavy — and spirited — reader response. The bulk of it denounced us viciously. We are with the devil, readers insisted. For we are dispensing falsehoods — and possibly condemning the witless dupes who heed our evil counsel to early, needless graves. And if ...

THE coronavirus menaces yet. Maybe you believe a face shield is your sword, a colossal weapon against the microscopic barbarians at your gate. Our agents inform us you can purchase a face shield for perhaps $10. But let us suppose you perch upon the upper rungs of America’s social ladder. ...