Intraday Market Direction Thursday: Nasdaq Higher…

Tuesday 2/7/23. Slider Trading Quiz!

Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:

     The prediction of the Dow closing higher has been right 259/462 or 56.1% of the time.

     The prediction of the Dow closing lower has been right 50/106 or 47.2% of the time.

$ $ $

I show another slider trading quiz featuring Tredegar 2: TG stock.

$ $ $

Here’s a symbol list of 97 chart and candlestick patterns (13 “investment grade” candle patterns) found in today’s securities using my version of Patternz:
ADBE, ADTN, AES, ALL, AMZN, ANIK, AON, APA, AWI, AXS, BSET, BBBY, BSX, CACI, CNP, CHD, CNX, CRH, CCRN, CMI, DECK, DVN, DDS, DSGR, XOM, FARO, FIS, FMC, FTV, GPS, GILD, GPN, GS, GPRO, HSY, HOV, INTU, NVTA, IRM, KALU, LMT, L, LXU, MGY, MTRX, ORI, PKE, PDCO, PCTY, PGR, RRC, ROG, RES, SHW, SWX, TECH, TTD, TSCO, RIG, TRV, SLCA, UIS, VRSN, FXI, IGV, SLV, EWA, EWO, EWK, EWZ, EEM, EWH, EWJ, EWM, EPP, EZA, EWY, EWT, THD, TUR, EWU, PPA, PBE, ILF, MXI, GLD, XLV, XLB. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day’s high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences),
the area might act as support or resistance.

— Thomas Bulkowski

Monday 2/6/23. Market Monday: The Week Ahead

My Prediction

I show the Dow industrials on the daily scale.

At AB, we see a wonderful looking double bottom. That means we see two valleys (AB) which bottom near the same price. It confirms as a valid double bottom when the index closes above line C.
If the index didn’t close above C, the double bottom would be just squiggles on the chart.

You can see how the market reacted after the double bottom (it climbed to the top of the chart).

At B, in blue, is another chart pattern called a symmetrical triangle. Because it closed today near the top of the pattern, I’d expect an upward breakout. A breakout would mean the index has
closed above the top blue line. After that, I’m not so sure the index will rise much farther.

A Brief Look Back

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

Monday: Down 260.99 points.

Tuesday: Up 368.95 points.

Wednesday: Up 6.92 points.

Thursday: Down 39.02 points.

Friday: Down 127.93 points.

For the Week…

The Dow industrials were down 52.07 points or 0.2%.

The Nasdaq composite was up 385.24 points or 3.3%.

The S&P 500 index was up 65.92 points or 1.6%.

Year to Date…

Dow Industrials

     1.2% down from the high of 34,342.32 on 01/13/2023.

     3.4% up from the low of 32,812.33 on 01/05/2023.

Nasdaq

     2.1% down from the high of 12,269.55 on 02/02/2023.

     17.0% up from the low of 10,265.04 on 01/06/2023.

S&P 500

     1.4% down from the high of 4,195.44 on 02/02/2023.

     9.0% up from the low of 3,794.33 on 01/03/2023.

Options Expiration

No options expire this week.

Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, “Take a
two-dimensional approach.” He offers these tips.

• Seekinger doesn’t look at the range of S2 to R2 as support and resistance levels. Rather, he considers them oversold (S) and overbought (R) areas.
• S2 to R2 range of values across daily, weekly, and monthly periods: If two values are close together then they lend more significance to the area.
• If the market trends on day 1, the odds rise tremendously that the market will be range bound between daily S1 and daily R1 the next day.
• In a quiet market when traders are waiting for an important earnings announcement or economic report, look for daily R1 and S1 levels to hold and for the market to return to the daily pivot.
• A move outside of daily R1 or S1 usually does not mean a breakout.
• The odds suggest that the entire week’s price action will remain between weekly R2 and S2.
• Avoid going long when the market moves above weekly R2 (it’s overbought) and avoid going short when price moves below weekly S2 (oversold).
• Consider going short at weekly R1 or long at weekly S1 with a profit objective of the weekly pivot.
• Consider going long at weekly S2 or short at weekly R2 with a profit objective of weekly S1 or R1, respectively.

Here are the formulas:

Pivot point: P = (H + L + C)/3

First resistance level: R1 = (2 * P) – L

First support level: S1 = (2 * P) – H)

Second resistance level: R2 = P + (R1 – S1)

Second support level: S2 = P – (R1 – S1)

H = high price , L=low price, C=closing price

Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season is either underway or should be starting soon. The sessions could be more volatile.

Here’s a symbol list of 92 chart and candlestick patterns (13 “investment grade” candle patterns) found in today’s securities using my version of Patternz:
AXDX, AES, AMED, AEE, AEL, AXP, AME, ANIK, ATR, AWI, BMI, BSET, BA, BBW, CBT, CACI, CALM, CPB, CNC, CF, CIEN, CI, CSCO, CLNE, CLX, CNA, CAG, DECK, DSGR, DTE, EVRG, EXC, EZPW, FTV, FDP, FRD, GPS, GD, GIS, GILD, GS, HBI, HSY, HWM, HUBG, IDXX, IIIN, IBKR, M, MANH, MTRX, MRK, JWN, NUS, OLN, OTEX, PCTY, PCG, PLXS, PPL, PGR, PRU, RGS, ROL, RES, SRE, SKYW, SCS, TECH, TXT, UNH, WLK, ITA, IAI, IDU, IYZ, EWZ, EWC, TUR, PBE, ILF, XLV, XLU. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

The below industries were the best (rank 1) or worst performing of those I follow.

— Thomas Bulkowski

Friday 2/3/23. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

$ $ $

Here’s a symbol list of 220 chart and candlestick patterns (13 “investment grade” candle patterns) found in today’s securities using my version of Patternz:
DDD, AXDX, ACN, ADBE, AFL, ALRM, ALGT, AYX, AMZN, AMED, AEO, AEL, AXP, AFG, AME, AAPL, AMAT, ATR, AWI, ARW, ATO, ADSK, AVNT, BSET, BECN, BBBY, BERY, BBY, BIO, BIIB, BA, BFH, CBT, CPB, CX, CNP, CIEN, CLNE, CNA, CGNX, CTSH, CONN, COST, CMI, DECK, XRAY, DSGR, DOV, DTE, EFX, RE, EVRG, EXPI, FFIV, FDX, FIS, FRD, GME, GPS, GIS, GNW, GILD, GL, GS, GOOGL, GPRO, GGG, HBI, HELE, HD, DHI, HOV, HWM, ITW, ILMN, IBP, IIIN, INTU, NVTA, IRM, JBLU, KBH, K, KELYA, KLIC, LZB, LAMR, LEN, LLY, RAMP, LOW, MHO, M, MCHX, MLM, MTRX, MDC, MRK, META, MSFT, MCO, MS, ^IXIC, NTAP, NJR, NEWR, NXGN, NWPX, NOVT, NUS, OMCL, OMC, ASGN, OUT, PANW, PCTY, PYPL, PEN, PRFT, PETS, PPL, PGR, PRU, PEG, PHM, QTWO, RJF, RGS, RNG, ROL, RES, SCHW, SMG, SIGI, SCI, NOW, SHW, SHOP, SMAR, SPLK, SXI, SCS, SSYS, TDOC, TDY, TER, TXT, TKR, TOL, TDG, TREX, TWLO, UPS, UNH, UNM, VFC, VMI, VEEV, WSO, WSM, WOLF, WDAY, ZBRA, ITA, IAI, IYC, ITB, IEZ, FTEC, FDN, QTEC, FXL, QQQ, ICF, IYZ, IGV, SLV, EWK, EWZ, EWC, EWQ, EWW, EWD, TUR, EWU, QLD, DBA, PBE, PEJ, ROBO, IXN, XLY, XLI, XRT, XLK, VAW, MGK. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

The following patterns were found manually, not using Patternz. Mr. Bulkowski has excluded any securities he owns from appearing in the list. However, he may add any of the securities listed to his portfolio at any time, just as you can.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

For details about the chart patterns, click here.

— Thomas Bulkowski

Thursday 2/2/23. Intraday Market Direction: Nasdaq

Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:

     The prediction of the Nasdaq closing higher has been right 250/443 or 56.4% of the time.

     The prediction of the Nasdaq closing lower has been right 70/144 or 48.6% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

$ $ $

I released another version (7.0.0.46) of Patternz, my free pattern finding software. This one expands the filters to include big price and volume moves.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5-minute scale.

The Nasdaq has been following an up-sloping trend as the red line shows. However, at A, the index spiked. Why?

The answer is the FED told the world what they did with interest rates (raised them 1/4 point again) and also described what the rest of the year might look like. The market liked what they said.

Look near the end of today’s trading. The index dropped marginally, suggesting tomorrow the index will open lower.

$ $ $

Here’s a symbol list of 105 chart and candlestick patterns (13 “investment grade” candle patterns) found in today’s securities using my version of Patternz:
ABM, AXDX, AEIS, AMD, AEO, AMGN, ANIK, ARCB, ATO, AVNT, BFH, BMY, CBT, CENX, CRL, CNO, CTSH, GLW, CCK, CMI, DDS, DSGR, ^DJT, ^DJI, EME, WIRE, EVRG, FFIV, FTV, FCX, GNW, GILD, GFS, GS, GGG, HELE, IEX, IIIN, IRM, JBLU, KELYA, LANC, LOW, M, MAS, MTRN, MTRX, MS, NEU, NOVT, OXY, ON, PTEN, PKI, PFG, PGR, PEG, RTX, RGS, RNG, RES, R, ^GSPC, SAIA, SMG, SEIC, SRE, SMTC, SCI, SWN, SNPS, TPX, TMO, RIG, UNH, VFC, VMI, VECO, ITA, IAI, IHE, QTEC, FXL, IYZ, SLV, EWA, EWK, ECH, EIS, EWP, TUR, IBB, PBE, PJP, IEV, MXI, XLI, SPY. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day’s high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences),
the area might act as support or resistance.

— Thomas Bulkowski

Wednesday 2/1/23. 2023 Forecast Update

I pre-released a new version of Patternz (twice. I’m up to 7.0.0.45). It has the ability to filter chart patterns by various traits. See the List Form, Filter button (middle bottom of the form).
I’m still working on enhancements to the program so send me your ideas for improvement and maybe you’ll see it soon. Version 45 has some important bug fixes.

$ $ $

Here’s the updated 2023 forecast, presented in slider format.

$ $ $

Based on sector performance from Fidelity, the best performing sectors for year-to-date performance as of 1/30/2023 were…
(The numbering is how they ranked a month ago.)

1. Energy (+37%)

2. Utilities (1%)

4. Health care (1%)

5. Industrials (1%)

7. Materials (0%)

3. Consumer staples (-3%)

6. Financials (-7%)

8. Real estate (-15%)

9. Information technology (-16%)

10. Consumer discretionary (-19%)

11. Communication services (-27%)

The folks at two firms polled by Fidelity weigh the sectors in this order, as of 1/31/23.

1. Information technology (IT)

2. Health care

3. Financials

4. Consumer discretionary

5. Industrials

6. Communication services

7. Consumer staples

8. Energy

9. Utilities

11. Real estate

10. Materials

Here’s how they rank the industries, but only the top 10 appear. One-year change, as of 1/30/23. The numbering is how they ranked a month ago.

3. Construction and engineering (+51%)

2. Oil, gas and consumable fuels (+37%)

1. Energy equipment and services (+32%)

4. Independent power and renewable electric producers (+19%)

New. Metals and mining (+18%)

6. Biotechnology (+14%)

9. Insurance (+12%)

5. Aerospace & Defense (+12%)

New. Trading companies and distributors (+10%)

8. Gas utilities (+9%)

$ $ $

Here’s a symbol list of 134 chart and candlestick patterns (13 “investment grade” candle patterns) found in today’s securities using my version of Patternz:
DDD, AEIS, AJRD, AA, AEO, AFG, ANIK, ATR, ARCB, ANET, ARW, AVNT, AVA, BKH, BOOT, BFH, BCO, BBW, CNP, CRL, CLF, CTSH, GLW, XRAY, DRQ, BOOM, RE, EVRG, FICO, FAST, FE, FDP, GNW, GPN, GS, GOOGL, GPRO, GGG, HLIT, HAYN, HSII, HELE, HUBG, IIIN, PODD, ITGR, TILE, NVTA, JBLU, KELYA, KFRC, KBAL, LAMR, L, LXU, MTSI, MCHX, MAS, MTRX, MDC, MLI, NEU, NEE, OXM, PTEN, PAYX, PNW, PGR, PHM, QTWO, RMBS, RGS, ROG, ROST, RES, SRE, SCI, SMAR, SPSC, SSYS, SNPS, TFX, TEVA, TDG, RIG, TREX, UNM, VMI, MDRX, VRTX, V, WERN, WMB, WOLF, IAI, IHE, ICF, SOXX, IYF, EWK, EWC, EEM, EWG, EWH, EWJ, EWM, EWS, EWY, EWD, EWL, EWT, TUR, DBA, PBE, PEJ, PJP, IXN, XLY, XLI, XLK, USO, SMH, VHT, VIS. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

— Thomas Bulkowski