Intraday Market Direction Thursday: Nasdaq Lower…

Thursday 11/11/21. Intraday Market Direction: Nasdaq

Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:

     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 232/401 or 57.9% of the time.

     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 59/124 or 47.6% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

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I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5-minute scale.

I drew three horizontal red lines to highlight something unusual. Let’s look at line A.

Starting from the right, the index touches the line twice, so the line shows support. But if you look to the left, the line touches the index in the middle of a straight-line run up. In other
words, that location shows support later, but not last Thursday. However, we know that the middle of a run like you see here can be a location of support or resistance (future support in this case).

Line B shows support on the right but not on the left. If we consider that support and resistance are ranges and not distinct points, then we can infer that support is shown below line A,
on the left, where the index moves sideways a week ago on Wednesday.

Finally, I show the bottom line, C. I drew this from today’s (Wednesday’s) bottom, backward to a week ago Monday. There is some support shown on that Monday.

Looking forward, what will happen? My guess is the index will rebound. It’s already started moving higher near the end of today’s session, but the 3-day trend is still downward. So it’s
hard to tell what will happen. Normally, the trend will continue (down) and trying to call when it’ll reverse is difficult at best. However, I think the fear of inflation is overblown and that
fear represents a short-term buying opportunity. Clearly, though, the turn I’m calling could be premature. Indeed, the index could continue lower for the rest of this week and could
start a recovery next week.

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Here’s a symbol list of 135 chart and candlestick patterns (13 “investment grade” candle patterns) found in today’s securities using my version of Patternz:
DDD, MMM, AXDX, ACIW, AES, ALB, ALKS, ANTM, ATR, ARW, ASH, AIZ, AVNT, AXS, BCPC, BIO, BKH, BKNG, BRKS, BG, CBT, CACI, CE, CNC, CF, CINF, CSCO, CMCO, CLR, GLW, CR, CTS, DOV, EXP, EQT, EL, RE, EZPW, FIS, FE, FISV, FLEX, GME, GD, GS, EVRG, HL, HP, HSY, ILMN, INFN, INOV, IPAR, ISRG, KLIC, L, MHO, MNDT, MAN, MCHX, MA, MTRX, MRK, FB, MCO, MOS, MLI, MUR, NCR, NFLX, PTEN, PRFT, PLXS, PG, DGX, RGS, RNG, RCKY, ROST, ^GSPC, SLB, SWN, SR, SRDX, TECH, TPX, TEVA, TMO, TKR, TG, UNM, VC, WAT, WERN, IYM, IAI, IDU, FTEC, BOTZ, IHF, SLV, EWA, EWO, EWK, EWC, EEM, EWI, EWJ, EWM, EPP, EWS, EWY, EWP, DBA, PJP, ROBO, IXN, ILF, XLE, GLD, XLK, UNG. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

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The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day’s high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences),
the area might act as support or resistance.

— Thomas Bulkowski

Wednesday 11/10/21. A Look At Indicators

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

I drew red lines A and B to highlight what I believe is bearish divergence. That’s when the indicator (the CPI line in this case) trends lower even as the
index rises.

We see that in this chart. It suggests the index is going down but this type of divergence can last for months. I’ve also written about this recently, so I’ve been waiting for the market
to turn lower. Maybe we’re seeing the weakness I expected happening now.

It’s really too soon to tell and it’s at the time of year that the indices should be gathering strength to power higher. I also expect that, meaning a higher close by year end.

The red line is the percentage of stocks at least 20% below their 1-year high (plotted upside down). The blue line is the average percentage drop of stocks below their 1-year high (plotted upside down).

Since the start of November, both lines (especially the more sensitive red one) have made a strong move upward. Very nice.

If you believe that a trend in motion tends to stay in motion, then look for the upward rise to continue.

Sounds like a contradiction, doesn’t it (the prior chart warns of the index dropping while this chart is strong)? One of the charts might be right unless the market moves sideways in which
case both charts will be wrong. In the short term (days to a week, maybe two), the market might be weak. After that, it’ll recover and move higher. That’s my guess.

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Here’s a symbol list of 136 chart and candlestick patterns (13 “investment grade” candle patterns) found in today’s securities using my version of Patternz:
AJRD, AES, ALB, AEO, ATR, ASH, AIZ, AXS, BBBY, BIO, BRKS, BG, CBT, CACI, CE, CNC, CF, CINF, CTXS, CLX, CNO, CMCO, GLW, COTY, CTS, DECK, DDS, DOV, EXP, EL, RE, EZPW, FIS, FE, FISV, FIVN, FLEX, FMC, GME, GE, GNW, GS, GES, HBI, HL, HELE, HP, HSIC, DHI, INFN, INOV, ISRG, IVC, NVTA, KLIC, MHO, M, MAN, MCHX, MA, MTRN, MTRX, MDC, MRK, FB, MCO, CNR, NCR, NFLX, NTAP, NI, NUS, OUT, PKG, PTEN, PYPL, PRFT, PCG, PLXS, PRU, QCOM, SLB, SCHW, SEE, SWN, SR, SCS, SRDX, TECH, TFX, TPX, TEVA, TOL, TG, TREX, VC, WSO, WOLF, ZBRA, IHI, FTEC, BOTZ, IYH, IHF, EWO, EWK, ECH, EEM, EZA, EWY, EWT, IBB, ROBO, IXN, XLY, XLE, GLD, XRT, XLK, UNG, VAW. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

— Thomas Bulkowski

Tuesday 11/9/21. Slider Trading Quiz! Eagle Materials (2)

Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:

     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 232/415 or 55.9% of the time.

     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 43/90 or 47.8% of the time.

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I show another slider trading quiz featuring Eagle Materials: EXP 2

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Here’s a symbol list of 154 chart and candlestick patterns (13 “investment grade” candle patterns) found in today’s securities using my version of Patternz:
DDD, AXDX, ACIW, AYI, ADTN, AMD, AJRD, AA, ADS, AEE, AEP, AXP, AMWD, ANIK, ASH, ADP, AVA, AXS, BERY, BBY, BRKS, BG, CBT, CAL, CF, CINF, COTY, CRH, CROX, CCK, CTS, DVN, DTE, EXP, EBAY, WIRE, EQT, EL, EVH, XOM, FE, FLEX, GME, EVRG, GES, HLIT, HELE, HSIC, HOV, IDA, ILMN, INCY, INOV, IIIN, TILE, ISRG, JAZZ, JBLU, KBH, KMB, LAMR, LXU, M, MAS, MTRN, FB, MLI, MUR, NFG, CNR, NTGR, NJR, NEE, NI, NWPX, OGE, OLN, OUT, PKG, PATK, PDCO, PYPL, PETS, PLXS, POR, PEG, ROK, CRM, SRE, SO, SR, TDOC, TPX, TXT, TZOO, TG, UGI, UNM, VLO, VMI, V, VC, WOLF, XEL, ZBRA, IYM, IYK, IYE, IEO, IDU, FXI, IYZ, SLV, IGE, EWA, EWO, EWK, EWC, EWQ, EWS, EWT, THD, TUR, PBE, XLP, XLE, GLD, XLB, XLU, UNG, VAW. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

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The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day’s high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences),
the area might act as support or resistance.

— Thomas Bulkowski