Market Monday: The Dow Headed for Trouble…

Thursday 3/7/19. Intraday Nasdaq: Double Tops Shows Terrific Gains

Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:

     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 160/292 or 54.8% of the time.

     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 49/98 or 50.0% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5-minute scale, but only 5 days to highlight the chart pattern.

An Adam & Adam double top appears at AB. That was late Wednesday. It looks to have confirmed just before or just after the close on Tuesday, meaning day traders
could be primed to take a plunge in the pattern.

Before the market opened this morning (Wednesday), the futures may have shown that the opening would be negative but not a significant drop (I’m guessing because I didn’t check).

A negative reading would have suggested a downward move. However, volatility being what it is, the readings may be suspect and short-lived. A triple digit negative futures before the opening
bell might show the indices reversing to end three digits higher at the close.

Anyway, the double top was there, and it confirmed as a valid pattern. Shorting the index would have seen it drop all the way down to C, where it found support at the blue line.

What a nice tumble for such a small pattern. Unusual, too.

Because the index is resting on support, I think the index will close higher on Thursday. The above probabilities suggest a lower close.

The chart pattern indicator remains bearish, too, which supports a lower move.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day’s high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences),
the area might act as support or resistance.

— Thomas Bulkowski

Wednesday 3/6/19. Indicators: Trouble Ahead

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

See that vertical red line on the far right of the chart? That’s bad news.

Or is it?

Readers of this blog will understand that indicator signals can change for up to a week, so that signal could flop all the way to green if the markets were to rise several hundred points.

So maybe it’s not as bearish as we might expect. But it could also signal the extended retrace I’ve been expecting.

Let’s look at the next chart.

The red line is the percentage of stocks at least 20% below their 1-year high (plotted upside down). The blue line is the average percentage drop of stocks below their 1-year high (plotted upside down).

Both lines are lower this week from a week ago. And that means more stocks are bearish this week than last.

The above numbers confirm that view. Combined with the prior chart, it suggests that the retrace has begun. However, I don’t know how long it will last. It might be over tomorrow, in fact.

I think that there’s a case to be made that the indices will continue to round over and head lower. But I could be wrong. As I’ve mentioned in this space, I’ve been wrong before while
waiting for a bearish turn.

If trade talks with China get settled, the markets will soar. If talks fail, the markets will crash. We’ll have to wait and see what happens.

— Thomas Bulkowski

Tuesday 3/5/19. Intraday Market Direction: Dow

Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:

     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 182/301 or 60.5% of the time.

     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 36/71 or 50.7% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Dow industrials on the 5-minute scale.

I drew a horizontal red line through price, just to show where price bounces off the line a lot. Look at the line and you’ll see peaks and valleys touching the line or coming close to it.

But the support and resistance shown by the line didn’t stop the index from plunging through it today (Monday).

The opening looked promising as the index gapped open higher (A). It started retracing, which is normal, but the retrace didn’t stop. The index kept dropping and dropping.
Eventually, in mid session, it found some footing and shot upward.

What was left on the chart was a V-bottom only this bottom has an extension.

That extension is the small knot of congestion formed after the V. It doesn’t look complete, as if it needs to retrace more before resuming the upward move. If it does that (retrace a bit more),
then it would qualify as an extended V-bottom pattern.

We might not see the extension grow, but an upward move agrees with the above probabilities.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day’s high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences),
the area might act as support or resistance.

— Thomas Bulkowski

Monday 3/4/19. Monday 3/4/19. Trouble Ahead for Dow

My Prediction

I show a pic of the Dow industrials on the weekly scale, not the usual daily. Why? Because I wanted to show the long-term picture.

A double top appears at AB, confirmed as a valid chart pattern when the index closed below the red line. Notice that the index only dropped to C.

Small declines, if you can call this one a small decline, are common for double tops.

The index recovered and made its way higher to D. However, look how close it is to the brown line (drawn from the highest peak, B) and even the green line (drawn from A).

What’s the big deal?

The green line makes the three-peak pattern appear as a head-and-shoulders top (although a triple top would be a better assessment).

It suggests the index will stall soon, forming a third peak.

It’s possible, of course, the index will rise above the brown line by an amount similar to the drop below the red line to C, before reversing. So we’ll have to wait and see what really happens.

A Brief Look Back

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

Monday: Up 60.14 points.

Tuesday: Down 33.97 points.

Wednesday: Down 72.82 points.

Thursday: Down 69.16 points.

Friday: Up 110.32 points.

For the Week…

The Dow industrials were down 5.49 points or 0.0%.

The Nasdaq composite was up 67.81 points or 0.9%.

The S&P 500 index was up 11.02 points or 0.4%.

Year to Date…

Dow Industrials

     0.8% down from the high of 26,241.42 on 02/25/2019.

     15.0% up from the low of 22,638.41 on 01/03/2019.

Nasdaq

     0.1% down from the high of 7,603.04 on 03/01/2019.

     17.6% up from the low of 6,457.13 on 01/03/2019.

S&P 500

     0.3% down from the high of 2,813.49 on 02/25/2019.

     14.7% up from the low of 2,443.96 on 01/03/2019.

Options Expiration

No options expire this week.

Swing and Position Traders: Chart Pattern Indicator

As of 03/01/2019, the CPI had:

11 bearish patterns,

35 bullish patterns,

279 patterns waiting for breakout.

The CPI signal is 76.1%, which is
bullish (>= 65%).

The chart pattern indicator is bullish
with 2 of 3 full triangles showing (). Additional triangles are a measure
of strength with solid triangles meaning a more reliable signal than half triangles.

Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, “Take a
two-dimensional approach.” He offers these tips.

• Seekinger doesn’t look at the range of S2 to R2 as support and resistance levels. Rather, he considers them oversold (S) and overbought (R) areas.
• S2 to R2 range of values across daily, weekly, and monthly periods: If two values are close together then they lend more significance to the area.
• If the market trends on day 1, the odds rise tremendously that the market will be range bound between daily S1 and daily R1 the next day.
• In a quiet market when traders are waiting for an important earnings announcement or economic report, look for daily R1 and S1 levels to hold and for the market to return to the daily pivot.
• A move outside of daily R1 or S1 usually does not mean a breakout.
• The odds suggest that the entire week’s price action will remain between weekly R2 and S2.
• Avoid going long when the market moves above weekly R2 (it’s overbought) and avoid going short when price moves below weekly S2 (oversold).
• Consider going short at weekly R1 or long at weekly S1 with a profit objective of the weekly pivot.
• Consider going long at weekly S2 or short at weekly R2 with a profit objective of weekly S1 or R1, respectively.

Here are the formulas:

Pivot point: P = (H + L + C)/3

First resistance level: R1 = (2 * P) – L

First support level: S1 = (2 * P) – H)

Second resistance level: R2 = P + (R1 – S1)

Second support level: S2 = P – (R1 – S1)

H = high price , L=low price, C=closing price

Consecutive Price Trends

How long can an index close higher (or lower) each day? The adjacent table shows how often consecutive up or down closes occur in the indices, based on the most recent trend of closes.

Low percentages suggest the market is overdue to turn (think of it as the likelihood that next week or next month will continue the trend, based on historical performance). Values of 50% mean random, so most percentages will be lower.

The analysis uses data going back 10 years for weekly percentages and 25 years for monthly percentages (or the start of data, whichever is more recent). Any unchanged closing price is interpreted as the end of the string of consecutive up or down closes.

Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season is over.

Large numbers of bullish or bearish chart patterns can signal short- to intermediate-term market trends (many bullish chart patterns can mean an uptrend will continue, for example).
However, please realize that the short-term price trend could have changed since the pattern was discovered (this is especially true of pipe tops or bottoms, which are weekly patterns).

The 10 types of most frequently appearing chart patterns in the stocks, indices, and long-only exchange traded funds I follow during the last month are shown in the adjacent table.

The industries I follow were the best (rank 1) and worst performing.

— Thomas Bulkowski

Friday 3/1/19. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

Go to Table.

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

Click the link for a list of symbols from the table.

The following patterns were found manually, so the results may differ from those found using Patternz.

There were 22 patterns found this week (excluding pipe bottoms; pipe tops and bottoms are found looking back 2 weeks) out of 596 stocks searched, or 3.7%. Based on the percentage, the stock market is
trending since few consolidation patterns appear.

Excluding ETFs, there were 7 bullish chart patterns this week and 8 bearish ones with any remaining (7) being undecided.
The ratio of bullish to bearish patterns suggests the market is hinting of a coming bearish (down) turn.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

More…

— Thomas Bulkowski

Definitions

’Breakout is upward/downward 100% of the time’ means price breaks out up/down by definition, not by statistically measuring the rate.

All numbers assume a bull market and are based on the breakout direction that occurs most often.

Industry: Biotechnology

Industry RS rank: 35 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 496 out of 590

2/28/19 close: $32.63

1 Month avg volatility: $1.20. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $35.75 or 9.6% above the close.

Change YTD: -2.92%

Volume: 182,800 shares.
3 month avg: 71,871 shares.

This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.

 

Chart pattern: Dead-cat bounce continuation pattern from 02/21/2019 to 02/22/2019

Breakout is downward 67% of the time.

Average decline: 18%.

Industry: Semiconductor Cap Equip.

Industry RS rank: 6 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 391 out of 590

2/28/19 close: $38.34

1 Month avg volatility: $0.88. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $40.36 or 5.3% above the close.

Change YTD: 17.10%

Volume: 9,705,700 shares.
3 month avg: 11,583,771 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.

 

Chart pattern: Head-and-shoulders complex top reversal pattern from 01/30/2019 to 02/25/2019

Breakout is downward 100% of the time.

Average decline: 23%.

Break-even failure rate: 4%.

Pullbacks occur 67% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 53% of the time.

Industry: Insurance (Prop/Casualty)

Industry RS rank: 18 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 220 out of 590

2/28/19 close: $57.07

1 Month avg volatility: $0.76. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $55.27 or 3.2% below the close.

Change YTD: 10.52%

Volume: 386,500 shares.
3 month avg: 808,385 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.

 

Chart pattern: Pennant continuation pattern from 02/21/2019 to 02/28/2019

Breakout is upward 61% of the time.

Average rise: 25%.

Break-even failure rate: 2%.

Throwbacks occur 47% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 60% of the time.

Industry: Shoe

Industry RS rank: 3 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 491 out of 590

2/28/19 close: $31.10

1 Month avg volatility: $0.78. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $28.94 or 7.0% below the close.

Change YTD: 11.75%

Volume: 477,600 shares.
3 month avg: 329,342 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.

 

Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 11/29/2018 to 02/26/2019

Breakout is upward 54% of the time.

Average rise: 31%.

Break-even failure rate: 9%.

Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

Industry: Air Transport

Industry RS rank: 54 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 300 out of 590

2/28/19 close: $11.52

1 Month avg volatility: $0.42. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $10.33 or 10.4% below the close.

Change YTD: 31.81%

Volume: 58,100 shares.
3 month avg: 78,248 shares.

This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.

 

Chart pattern: Pennant continuation pattern from 02/21/2019 to 02/28/2019

Breakout is upward 61% of the time.

Average rise: 25%.

Break-even failure rate: 2%.

Throwbacks occur 47% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 60% of the time.

Industry: Computer Software and Svcs

Industry RS rank: 5 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 198 out of 590

2/28/19 close: $108.15

1 Month avg volatility: $1.58. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $103.73 or 4.1% below the close.

Change YTD: 5.46%

Volume: 3,075,800 shares.
3 month avg: 1,473,917 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.

 

Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 01/29/2019 to 02/27/2019

Breakout is upward 54% of the time.

Average rise: 31%.

Break-even failure rate: 9%.

Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

Industry: IT Services

Industry RS rank: 14 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 110 out of 590

2/28/19 close: $84.69

1 Month avg volatility: $1.34. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $81.98 or 3.2% below the close.

Change YTD: 15.24%

Volume: 2,578,500 shares.
3 month avg: 915,811 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.

 

Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 02/11/2019 to 02/28/2019

Breakout is upward 54% of the time.

Average rise: 31%.

Break-even failure rate: 9%.

Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

Industry: Information Services

Industry RS rank: 47 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 270 out of 590

2/28/19 close: $142.30

1 Month avg volatility: $2.99. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $136.24 or 4.3% below the close.

Change YTD: 11.31%

Volume: 430,100 shares.
3 month avg: 564,655 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Thursday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Monday.

 

Chart pattern: Triangle, ascending reversal pattern from 02/06/2019 to 02/28/2019

Breakout is upward 70% of the time.

Average rise: 35%.

Break-even failure rate: 13%.

Throwbacks occur 57% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 75% of the time.

Industry: Building Materials

Industry RS rank: 44 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 251 out of 590

2/28/19 close: $17.84

1 Month avg volatility: $0.55. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $16.36 or 8.3% below the close.

Change YTD: 70.72%

Volume: 290,000 shares.
3 month avg: 83,558 shares.

This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.

 

Chart pattern: Flag, high and tight continuation pattern from 12/26/2018 to 02/22/2019

Breakout is upward 100% of the time.

Average rise: 69%.

Throwbacks occur 54% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 90% of the time.

Industry: Trucking/Transp. Leasing

Industry RS rank: 49 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 480 out of 590

2/28/19 close: $42.98

1 Month avg volatility: $1.19. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $45.50 or 5.9% above the close.

Change YTD: 15.94%

Volume: 154,000 shares.
3 month avg: 343,494 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.

 

Chart pattern: Horn top reversal pattern from 02/04/2019 to 02/19/2019

Breakout is downward 100% of the time.

Average decline: 21%.

Break-even failure rate: 7%.

Pullbacks occur 33% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.

Industry: Trucking/Transp. Leasing

Industry RS rank: 49 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 394 out of 590

2/28/19 close: $107.67

1 Month avg volatility: $1.99. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $111.81 or 3.8% above the close.

Change YTD: 15.72%

Volume: 805,000 shares.
3 month avg: 898,451 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.

 

Chart pattern: Pipe top reversal pattern from 02/11/2019 to 02/19/2019

Breakout is downward 100% of the time.

Average decline: 20%.

Break-even failure rate: 11%.

Pullbacks occur 41% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.

Industry: Advertising

Industry RS rank: 12 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 4 out of 590

2/28/19 close: $4.33

1 Month avg volatility: $0.21. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $4.78 or 10.5% above the close.

Change YTD: 63.40%

Volume: 73,100 shares.
3 month avg: 97,160 shares.

This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.

 

Chart pattern: Diamond top reversal pattern from 02/05/2019 to 02/28/2019

Breakout is downward 69% of the time.

Average decline: 21%.

Break-even failure rate: 6%.

Pullbacks occur 57% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 76% of the time.

Industry: Medical Supplies

Industry RS rank: 32 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 307 out of 590

2/28/19 close: $90.50

1 Month avg volatility: $1.23. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $93.73 or 3.6% above the close.

Change YTD: -0.51%

Volume: 12,189,600 shares.
3 month avg: 5,761,640 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.

 

Chart pattern: Double Top, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 02/19/2019 to 02/25/2019

Breakout is downward 100% of the time.

Average decline: 19%.

Break-even failure rate: 8%.

Pullbacks occur 61% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 72% of the time.

Industry: Furn/Home Furnishings

Industry RS rank: 38 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 290 out of 590

2/28/19 close: $36.68

1 Month avg volatility: $0.58. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $38.02 or 3.7% above the close.

Change YTD: 21.26%

Volume: 206,200 shares.
3 month avg: 361,806 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.

 

Chart pattern: Rising wedge reversal pattern from 12/20/2018 to 02/25/2019

Breakout is downward 69% of the time.

Average decline: 14%.

Break-even failure rate: 24%.

Pullbacks occur 63% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 46% of the time.

Industry: Petroleum (Producing)

Industry RS rank: 57 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 467 out of 590

2/28/19 close: $66.15

1 Month avg volatility: $1.33. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $69.31 or 4.8% above the close.

Change YTD: 7.77%

Volume: 3,856,300 shares.
3 month avg: 4,088,786 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.

 

Chart pattern: Diamond top reversal pattern from 01/09/2019 to 02/28/2019

Breakout is downward 69% of the time.

Average decline: 21%.

Break-even failure rate: 6%.

Pullbacks occur 57% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 76% of the time.

Industry: Advertising

Industry RS rank: 12 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 85 out of 590

2/28/19 close: $75.70

1 Month avg volatility: $1.58. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $78.93 or 4.3% above the close.

Change YTD: 3.36%

Volume: 1,836,800 shares.
3 month avg: 2,548,395 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.

 

Chart pattern: Diamond top reversal pattern from 01/11/2019 to 02/28/2019

Breakout is downward 69% of the time.

Average decline: 21%.

Break-even failure rate: 6%.

Pullbacks occur 57% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 76% of the time.

Industry: Medical Services

Industry RS rank: 28 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 567 out of 590

2/28/19 close: $23.05

1 Month avg volatility: $0.86. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $20.34 or 11.8% below the close.

Change YTD: -0.90%

Volume: 577,600 shares.
3 month avg: 739,945 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Thursday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.

 

Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 01/18/2019 to 02/26/2019

Breakout is upward 54% of the time.

Average rise: 31%.

Break-even failure rate: 9%.

Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

Industry: Insurance (Life)

Industry RS rank: 31 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 185 out of 590

2/28/19 close: $144.49

1 Month avg volatility: $2.39. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $149.90 or 3.8% above the close.

Change YTD: 3.04%

Volume: 392,300 shares.
3 month avg: 326,800 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.

 

Chart pattern: Roof, inverted reversal pattern from 01/30/2019 to 02/28/2019

Breakout is downward 50% of the time.

Average decline: 17%.

Break-even failure rate: 10%.

Pullbacks occur 56% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 73% of the time.

Industry: Oilfield Svcs/Equipment

Industry RS rank: 58 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 523 out of 590

2/28/19 close: $10.75

1 Month avg volatility: $0.43. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $11.81 or 9.9% above the close.

Change YTD: 8.92%

Volume: 3,129,500 shares.
3 month avg: 1,275,503 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.

 

Chart pattern: Triangle, descending reversal pattern from 01/23/2019 to 02/28/2019

Breakout is downward 64% of the time.

Average decline: 16%.

Break-even failure rate: 16%.

Pullbacks occur 54% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 54% of the time.

Industry: Internet

Industry RS rank: 52 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 587 out of 590

2/28/19 close: $93.99

1 Month avg volatility: $5.89. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $106.64 or 13.5% above the close.

Change YTD: -39.61%

Volume: 1,177,800 shares.
3 month avg: 426,580 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.

 

Chart pattern: Dead-cat bounce continuation pattern from 02/22/2019 to 02/22/2019

Breakout is downward 67% of the time.

Average decline: 18%.

Industry: Computer Software and Svcs

Industry RS rank: 5 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 81 out of 590

2/28/19 close: $22.49

1 Month avg volatility: $0.50. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $21.43 or 4.7% below the close.

Change YTD: 19.03%

Volume: 4,544,300 shares.
3 month avg: 5,752,529 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.

 

Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 02/01/2019 to 02/28/2019

Breakout is upward 54% of the time.

Average rise: 31%.

Break-even failure rate: 9%.

Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

Industry: Homebuilding

Industry RS rank: 37 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 259 out of 590

2/28/19 close: $35.60

1 Month avg volatility: $0.96. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $38.16 or 7.2% above the close.

Change YTD: 8.11%

Volume: 2,948,200 shares.
3 month avg: 2,237,614 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.

 

Chart pattern: Triple top reversal pattern from 02/01/2019 to 02/25/2019

Breakout is downward 100% of the time.

Average decline: 19%.

Break-even failure rate: 10%.

Pullbacks occur 61% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 40% of the time.

Written by and copyright © 2005-2019 by Thomas N. Bulkowski. All rights reserved. Disclaimer: You alone are responsible for your investment decisions.
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