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Market Monday: The Week Ahead….

Written by and copyright © 2005-2017 by Thomas N. Bulkowski. All rights reserved. Disclaimer: You alone are responsible for your investment decisions.
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Thursday 12/7/17. Intraday Market Direction: Nasdaq

The index climbed by 0.2% or 14.17 points. Since 02/05/1971 the index made 658 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day’s…

     Average gain was 0.7% on 380 occasions.

     Average loss was -0.7% on 278 occasions.

Expect the index to close higher 57.8% of the time.

Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:

     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 138/246 or 56.1% of the time.

     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 43/85 or 50.6% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5 minute scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5-minute scale.

A double bottom appeared earlier in the week. I show that as AB. It confirmed as a valid chart pattern when the index closed above the green line.

The height of the double bottom, from lowest low to the peak between the two bottoms, added to the price of the peak, gives a price target. The index almost made it to the target the
next day before tumbling.

The reason I mention the measure rule (described above, to find a target) so often is that it works well for short-term trades.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day’s high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences),
the area might act as support or resistance.

— Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2017 ThePatternSite.com    Metric   Value   Diff   Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2   6,483.71      
 Monthly S1   6,630.04   146.34   
 Weekly S2   6,632.21   2.17   Yes! The Weekly S2 is close to the Monthly S1.
 Weekly S1   6,704.30   72.08   
 Daily S2   6,712.69   8.39   
 Low   6,734.13   21.44   
 Open   6,742.07   7.94   
 Daily S1   6,744.53   2.46   Yes! The Daily S1 is close to the Open.
 61.8% Down from Intraday High   6,754.49   9.95   
 50% Down from Intraday High   6,760.77   6.29   
 Daily Pivot   6,765.98   5.20   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 50% Down from Intraday High.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High   6,767.06   1.09   Yes! The 38.2% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 Monthly Pivot   6,772.12   5.05   Yes! The Monthly Pivot is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High.
 Close   6,776.38   4.26   Yes! The Close is close to the Monthly Pivot.
 High   6,787.42   11.04   
 Daily R1   6,797.82   10.40   
 Weekly Pivot   6,809.24   11.42   
 Daily R2   6,819.27   10.02   
 Weekly R1   6,881.33   62.06   
 Monthly R1   6,918.45   37.13   
 Weekly R2   6,986.27   67.82   
 Monthly R2   7,060.53   74.25   


Wednesday 12/6/17. A Look At Indicators

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

Based on my own portfolio of stocks, over the last few days, I felt as if the Dow was making a move without taking the rest of the market with it. That told me it was weak (the overall market).

This chart, with a plunging indicator line (the thin blue one at screen bottom), confirms my suspicion.

However, since the indicator can change for up to a week, what you’re seeing might not be real. I think it is, though.

Picture of the percent down indicators

The red line is the percentage of stocks at least 20% below their 1-year high (plotted upside down). The blue line is the average percentage drop of stocks below their 1-year high (plotted upside down).

Shown as a red line on the above chart…

On Monday, 20% of stocks in my database are in bear market territory (down at least 20% from their 1-year high).

A week ago, it was 23%.

The fewest was 13% on 12/09/2016.

And the most was 29% on 08/21/2017.

Shown as a blue line on the above chart…

The 495 stocks in my database are down an average of 12% from their yearly high.

A week ago, the average was 13%.

The peak was 9% on 12/09/2016.

And the bottom was 16% on 08/21/2017.

The more sensitive line, the red one, shows a dramatic improvement over the prior week’s reading: from 23% bearish to 20% bearish.

Even the blue line shows improvement over the prior week.

Together, they are bullish while the CPI line is bearish. My guess, and it’s only a guess, is that we’re in for a retrace here. Congress will pass the tax cut and screw
individuals who pay their health insurance (that is, not part of a group plan) and the markets will find something new to worry about. And that will send the averages lower.

But who knows? Maybe the indices will rocket higher…

— Thomas Bulkowski

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Tuesday 12/5/17. Intraday Market Direction: Dow

The index climbed by 0.2% or 58.46 points. Since 10/01/1928 the index made 1292 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day’s…

     Average gain was 0.5% on 703 occasions.

     Average loss was -0.5% on 589 occasions.

Expect the index to close higher 54.4% of the time.

Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:

     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 153/256 or 59.8% of the time.

     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 32/65 or 49.2% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Dow industrials on the 5 minute scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Dow industrials on the 5-minute scale.

At first, I wasn’t going to draw any lines because nothing came to mind. No charts patterns, nothing of interest. Then the trend caught my eye so I drew the two red trendlines.

They form a chart pattern. Do you know what it is?

It’s an ascending broadening wedge.

Those breakout downward 73% of the time, according to the statistics in my green book,
Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns Second EditionEncyclopedia of Chart Patterns 2nd Edition book..

I show that pictured on the right.

It’s a good book and it would make a terrific holiday gift idea. Buy a copy even if you already have one. I need to pay for the Republican tax cut which is predicted to boost
individual health insurance premiums (like the one I use) by 10%. Add on the 20-30% rate increases the insurance companies have added the last two years and I’ll be taking out another mortgage soon.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day’s high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences),
the area might act as support or resistance.

— Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2017 ThePatternSite.com    Metric   Value   Diff   Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2   22,868.47      
 Weekly S2   23,271.50   403.03   
 Monthly S1   23,579.26   307.76   
 Weekly S1   23,780.77   201.51   
 Monthly Pivot   23,953.54   172.77   
 Weekly Pivot   24,054.30   100.76   
 Daily S2   24,124.91   70.61   
 Daily S1   24,207.48   82.57   
 Low   24,288.19   80.71   
 Close   24,290.05   1.86   Yes! The Close is close to the Low.
 Daily Pivot   24,370.76   80.71   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High   24,382.11   11.35   Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 50% Down from Intraday High   24,411.12   29.01   
 Open   24,424.11   12.99   Yes! The Open is close to the 50% Down from Intraday High.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High   24,440.13   16.02   Yes! The 38.2% Down from Intraday High is close to the Open.
 Daily R1   24,453.33   13.21   Yes! The Daily R1 is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High.
 High   24,534.04   80.71   
 Weekly R1   24,563.57   29.54   
 Daily R2   24,616.61   53.04   
 Monthly R1   24,664.33   47.72   
 Weekly R2   24,837.10   172.77   
 Monthly R2   25,038.61   201.51   


Monday 12/4/17. Market Monday: The Week Ahead

My Prediction

Picture of the S and P on the daily scale.

I show the S &P 500 index on the daily scale.

For lack of anything better to do, I drew two trendlines, following peaks and valleys.

Notice that the two trendlines converge. Those two converging lines form what’s called a rising wedge.

The breakout is downward 69% of the time from a rising wedge. This chart is an example of an upward breakout.

But notice how the index has thrown back to the top of the wedge. That’s typical behavior, so don’t think it’s the beginning of the end of the upward move.

 

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A Brief Look Back

Picture of a flower from my garden.

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

Monday: Up 22.79 points.

Tuesday: Up 255.93 points.

Wednesday: Up 103.97 points.

Thursday: Up 331.67 points.

Friday: Down 40.76 points.

For the Week…

The Dow industrials were up 673.6 points or 2.9%.

The Nasdaq composite was down 41.57 points or 0.6%.

The S&P 500 index was up 39.8 points or 1.5%.

Year to Date…

Dow Industrials

     0.4% down from the high of 24,327.82 on 11/30/2017.

     23.1% up from the low of 19,677.94 on 01/19/2017.

Nasdaq

     1.0% down from the high of 6,914.19 on 11/28/2017.

     26.9% up from the low of 5,397.99 on 01/03/2017.

S&P 500

     0.6% down from the high of 2,657.74 on 11/30/2017.

     17.7% up from the low of 2,245.13 on 01/03/2017.

Options Expiration

No options expire this week.

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Swing and Position Traders: Chart Pattern Indicator

As of 12/01/2017, the CPI had:

4 bearish patterns,

16 bullish patterns,

105 patterns waiting for breakout.

The CPI signal is 80.0%, which is
bullish (>= 65%).

The chart pattern indicator is bullish
with 3 of 3 full triangles showing (). Additional triangles are a measure
of strength with solid triangles meaning a more reliable signal than half triangles.

Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, “Take a
two-dimensional approach.” He offers these tips.

Index S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2
Dow Industrials (^DJI): Daily   23,758   23,995   24,159   24,395   24,559 
Weekly   23,252   23,742   24,035   24,525   24,818 
Monthly   22,849   23,540   23,934   24,625   25,019 
S&P500 (^GSPC): Daily   2,588   2,615   2,633   2,660   2,678 
Weekly   2,574   2,608   2,633   2,667   2,692 
Monthly   2,519   2,581   2,619   2,681   2,719 
Nasdaq (^IXIC): Daily   6,684   6,766   6,819   6,901   6,954 
Weekly   6,656   6,752   6,833   6,929   7,010 
Monthly   6,507   6,678   6,796   6,966   7,084 
  • Seekinger doesn’t look at the range of S2 to R2 as support and resistance levels. Rather, he considers them oversold (S) and overbought (R) areas.
  • S2 to R2 range of values across daily, weekly, and monthly periods: If two values are close together then they lend more significance to the area.
  • If the market trends on day 1, the odds rise tremendously that the market will be range bound between daily S1 and daily R1 the next day.
  • In a quiet market when traders are waiting for an important earnings announcement or economic report, look for daily R1 and S1 levels to hold and for the market to return to the daily pivot.
  • A move outside of daily R1 or S1 usually does not mean a breakout.
  • The odds suggest that the entire week’s price action will remain between weekly R2 and S2.
  • Avoid going long when the market moves above weekly R2 (it’s overbought) and avoid going short when price moves below weekly S2 (oversold).
  • Consider going short at weekly R1 or long at weekly S1 with a profit objective of the weekly pivot.
  • Consider going long at weekly S2 or short at weekly R2 with a profit objective of weekly S1 or R1, respectively.

Here are the formulas:

Pivot point: P = (H + L + C)/3

First resistance level: R1 = (2 * P) – L

First support level: S1 = (2 * P) – H)

Second resistance level: R2 = P + (R1 – S1)

Second support level: S2 = P – (R1 – S1)

H = high price , L=low price, C=closing price

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Consecutive Price Trends

Index  Consecutive
Closes So Far 
%  Comments 
 Dow industrials (^DJI)  2 weeks up  31.6%   The trend may continue. 
  1 month down  20.5%   Expect a reversal soon. 
 S & P 500 (^GSPC)  2 weeks up  32.1%   The trend may continue. 
  1 month down  21.2%   Expect a reversal soon. 
 Nasdaq composite (^IXIC)  1 week down  27.5%   The trend may continue. 
  1 month down  25.6%   The trend may continue. 

How long can an index close higher (or lower) each day? The adjacent table shows how often consecutive up or down closes occur in the indices, based on the most recent trend of closes.

Low percentages suggest the market is overdue to turn (think of it as the likelihood that next week or next month will continue the trend, based on historical performance). Values of 50% mean random, so most percentages will be lower.

The analysis uses data going back 10 years for weekly percentages and 25 years for monthly percentages (or the start of data, whichever is more recent). Any unchanged closing price is interpreted as the end of the string of consecutive up or down closes.

Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season is over.

Mutual funds will begin dividend distributions and rebalancing their portfolios for the approaching year end (starts in late November).

 Found  Chart Pattern Name
16 Pipe bottom
13 Double Bottom, Adam and Adam
8 Head-and-shoulders top
8 Double Top, Adam and Adam
8 Triangle, symmetrical
7 Dead-cat bounce
6 Triangle, ascending
5 Pipe top
5 Broadening top
4 Head-and-shoulders bottom

Large numbers of bullish or bearish chart patterns can signal short- to intermediate-term market trends (many bullish chart patterns can mean an uptrend will continue, for example).
However, please realize that the short-term price trend could have changed since the pattern was discovered (this is especially true of pipe tops or bottoms, which are weekly patterns).

The 10 types of most frequently appearing chart patterns in the stocks, indices, and long-only exchange traded funds I follow during the last month are shown in the adjacent table.

 

 

 

 

The industries I follow were the best (rank 1) and worst performing.

This Week Last Week
1. Trucking/Transp. Leasing 1. Semiconductor
2. Homebuilding 2. Human Resources
3. Human Resources 3. Trucking/Transp. Leasing
4. Securities Brokerage 4. Homebuilding
5. Retail Building Supply 5. Shoe
50. Chemical (Specialty) 50. Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
51. Food Processing 51. Retail (Special Lines)
52. Biotechnology 52. Cement and Aggregates
53. Cement and Aggregates 53. Food Processing
54. Household Products 54. Household Products
55. Drug 55. Drug
56. Advertising 56. Advertising
57. Short ETFs 57. Short ETFs

— Thomas Bulkowski

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Friday 12/1/17. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

Go to Table.

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

Click the link for a list of symbols from the table.

The following patterns were found manually, so the results may differ from those found using Patternz.

There were 15 patterns found this week (excluding pipe bottoms; pipe tops and bottoms are found looking back 2 weeks) out of 593 stocks searched, or 2.5%. Based on the percentage, the stock market is
trending
since few consolidation patterns appear.

I found 1 pipe bottom chart patterns, which is neutral. High numbers of pipe bottoms can signal a bullish move (I see many of them just before a bear market ends or during a bear market rally. Often it means the first bottom of a double bottom has formed. Thus, expect a move down to the second bottom).

Excluding ETFs, there were 10 bullish chart patterns this week and 3 bearish ones with any remaining (1) being undecided.
The ratio of bullish to bearish patterns suggests the market is hinting of a coming bullish (up) turn.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

More…

— Thomas Bulkowski

 

 

Weekly screen for chart patterns ending between 11/23/2017 and 11/30/2017. Many may be still in development. If no securities appear, then I have not identified any new patterns.

Definitions

RS is relative strength (where 1 is best). For other definitions, see the glossary.

’Breakout is upward/downward 100% of the time’ means price breaks out up/down by definition, not by statistically measuring the rate.

All numbers assume a bull market and are based on the breakout direction that occurs most often.

 

Acuity Brands, Inc (AYI)

Industry: Furn/Home Furnishings

Industry RS rank: 39 out of 56

Stock RS rank: 374 out of 585

11/30/17 close: $171.42

1 Month avg volatility: $4.30. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $160.59 or 6.3% below the close.

Change YTD: -25.75%

Volume: 632,200 shares.
3 month avg: 620,208 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.

 

Chart pattern: Double Bottom, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 11/09/2017 to 11/27/2017

Breakout is upward 100% of the time.

Average rise: 35%.

Break-even failure rate: 5%.

Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Boeing Company, The (BA)

Industry: Aerospace/Defense

Industry RS rank: 12 out of 56

Stock RS rank: 31 out of 585

11/30/17 close: $276.80

1 Month avg volatility: $3.31. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $262.81 or 5.1% below the close.

Change YTD: 77.80%

Volume: 4,718,600 shares.
3 month avg: 3,163,823 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.

 

Chart pattern: Triangle, ascending reversal pattern from 10/24/2017 to 11/28/2017

Breakout is upward 70% of the time.

Average rise: 35%.

Break-even failure rate: 13%.

Throwbacks occur 57% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 75% of the time.

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Ethan Allen Interiors Inc (ETH)

Industry: Furn/Home Furnishings

Industry RS rank: 39 out of 56

Stock RS rank: 315 out of 585

11/30/17 close: $29.40

1 Month avg volatility: $0.79. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $27.36 or 6.9% below the close.

Change YTD: -20.22%

Volume: 235,600 shares.
3 month avg: 315,668 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Thursday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.

 

Chart pattern: Head-and-shoulders bottom reversal pattern from 10/12/2017 to 11/28/2017

Breakout is upward 100% of the time.

Average rise: 38%.

Break-even failure rate: 3%.

Throwbacks occur 45% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 74% of the time.

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Flir Systems Inc (FLIR)

Industry: Aerospace/Defense

Industry RS rank: 12 out of 56

Stock RS rank: 127 out of 585

11/30/17 close: $46.58

1 Month avg volatility: $0.74. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $44.87 or 3.7% below the close.

Change YTD: 28.71%

Volume: 2,334,000 shares.
3 month avg: 1,139,475 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.

 

Chart pattern: Rectangle top continuation pattern from 10/30/2017 to 11/30/2017

Breakout is upward 68% of the time.

Average rise: 39%.

Break-even failure rate: 9%.

Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 80% of the time.

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FMC Corp. (FMC)

Industry: Chemical (Basic)

Industry RS rank: 6 out of 56

Stock RS rank: 105 out of 585

11/30/17 close: $94.40

1 Month avg volatility: $1.89. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $89.43 or 5.3% below the close.

Change YTD: 66.90%

Volume: 1,142,700 shares.
3 month avg: 1,121,235 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.

 

Chart pattern: Triangle, ascending reversal pattern from 11/02/2017 to 11/30/2017

Breakout is upward 70% of the time.

Average rise: 35%.

Break-even failure rate: 13%.

Throwbacks occur 57% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 75% of the time.

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Iconix Brand Group Inc. (ICON)

Industry: Shoe

Industry RS rank: 16 out of 56

Stock RS rank: 585 out of 585

11/30/17 close: $1.88

1 Month avg volatility: $0.28. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $2.54 or 35.4% above the close.

Change YTD: -79.87%

Volume: 3,875,800 shares.
3 month avg: 2,014,411 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Monday.

 

Chart pattern: Pipe top reversal pattern from 11/13/2017 to 11/20/2017

WARNING: A dead-cat bounce occurred on 10/30/2017. There is a 26% chance that a 15% or higher decline will occur (or has occurred since then) by 01/29/2018 and a 38% chance by 04/30/2018.

Breakout is downward 100% of the time.

Average decline: 20%.

Break-even failure rate: 11%.

Pullbacks occur 41% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.

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Insteel Industries Inc (IIIN)

Industry: Building Materials

Industry RS rank: 11 out of 56

Stock RS rank: 535 out of 585

11/30/17 close: $27.55

1 Month avg volatility: $0.80. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $25.51 or 7.4% below the close.

Change YTD: -22.70%

Volume: 92,800 shares.
3 month avg: 160,468 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.

 

Chart pattern: Broadening bottom reversal pattern from 11/03/2017 to 11/29/2017

Breakout is upward 53% of the time.

Average rise: 27%.

Break-even failure rate: 10%.

Throwbacks occur 41% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 59% of the time.

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Interpublic Group of Companies (IPG)

Industry: Advertising

Industry RS rank: 55 out of 56

Stock RS rank: 558 out of 585

11/30/17 close: $19.78

1 Month avg volatility: $0.43. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $18.65 or 5.7% below the close.

Change YTD: -15.51%

Volume: 8,691,900 shares.
3 month avg: 6,575,063 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.

 

Chart pattern: Head-and-shoulders bottom reversal pattern from 11/08/2017 to 11/27/2017

Breakout is upward 100% of the time.

Average rise: 38%.

Break-even failure rate: 3%.

Throwbacks occur 45% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 74% of the time.

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Patterson Companies Inc. (PDCO)

Industry: Medical Supplies

Industry RS rank: 24 out of 56

Stock RS rank: 550 out of 585

11/30/17 close: $36.55

1 Month avg volatility: $1.17. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $33.86 or 7.4% below the close.

Change YTD: -10.92%

Volume: 7,433,500 shares.
3 month avg: 1,766,671 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.

 

Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 11/13/2017 to 11/20/2017

Breakout is upward 100% of the time.

Average rise: 45%.

Break-even failure rate: 5%.

Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

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Pfizer Inc. (PFE)

Industry: Drug

Industry RS rank: 53 out of 56

Stock RS rank: 293 out of 585

11/30/17 close: $36.26

1 Month avg volatility: $0.40. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $35.28 or 2.7% below the close.

Change YTD: 11.64%

Volume: 21,756,800 shares.
3 month avg: 16,111,892 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Thursday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Monday.

 

Chart pattern: Triangle, ascending reversal pattern from 10/31/2017 to 11/27/2017

Breakout is upward 70% of the time.

Average rise: 35%.

Break-even failure rate: 13%.

Throwbacks occur 57% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 75% of the time.

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Raytheon Co. (RTN)

Industry: Aerospace/Defense

Industry RS rank: 12 out of 56

Stock RS rank: 218 out of 585

11/30/17 close: $191.15

1 Month avg volatility: $2.12. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $184.40 or 3.5% below the close.

Change YTD: 34.61%

Volume: 2,942,500 shares.
3 month avg: 1,322,426 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.

 

Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 10/26/2017 to 11/24/2017

Breakout is upward 54% of the time.

Average rise: 31%.

Break-even failure rate: 9%.

Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Semtech Corp (SMTC)

Industry: Semiconductor Cap Equip.

Industry RS rank: 30 out of 56

Stock RS rank: 528 out of 585

11/30/17 close: $34.05

1 Month avg volatility: $1.51. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $39.32 or 15.5% above the close.

Change YTD: 7.92%

Volume: 2,750,400 shares.
3 month avg: 505,986 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Thursday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.

 

Chart pattern: Head-and-shoulders top reversal pattern from 10/12/2017 to 11/24/2017

Breakout is downward 100% of the time.

Average decline: 22%.

Break-even failure rate: 4%.

Pullbacks occur 50% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 55% of the time.

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Torchmark Corp (TMK)

Industry: Insurance (Diversified)

Industry RS rank: 28 out of 56

Stock RS rank: 195 out of 585

11/30/17 close: $88.85

1 Month avg volatility: $0.98. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $86.79 or 2.3% below the close.

Change YTD: 20.46%

Volume: 929,700 shares.
3 month avg: 407,677 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.

 

Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 10/25/2017 to 11/24/2017

Breakout is upward 54% of the time.

Average rise: 31%.

Break-even failure rate: 9%.

Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Transocean Inc. (RIG)

Industry: Oilfield Svcs/Equipment

Industry RS rank: 49 out of 56

Stock RS rank: 289 out of 585

11/30/17 close: $10.11

1 Month avg volatility: $0.35. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $11.11 or 9.9% above the close.

Change YTD: -31.41%

Volume: 11,409,200 shares.
3 month avg: 14,182,403 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.

 

Chart pattern: Broadening top reversal pattern from 09/28/2017 to 11/27/2017

Breakout is downward 50% of the time.

Average decline: 15%.

Break-even failure rate: 18%.

Pullbacks occur 48% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 37% of the time.

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MSCI Australia Index fund (EWA)

Industry: Investment Co. (Foreign)

Industry RS rank: 37 out of 56

Stock RS rank: 362 out of 585

11/30/17 close: $22.84

1 Month avg volatility: $0.12. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $22.50 or 1.5% below the close.

Change YTD: 12.90%

Volume: 2,209,000 shares.
3 month avg: 1,860,012 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.

 

Chart pattern: Triangle, ascending reversal pattern from 09/12/2017 to 11/30/2017

Breakout is upward 70% of the time.

Average rise: 35%.

Break-even failure rate: 13%.

Throwbacks occur 57% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 75% of the time.

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MSCI Taiwan Index (EWT)

Industry: Investment Co. (Foreign)

Industry RS rank: 37 out of 56

Stock RS rank: 336 out of 585

11/30/17 close: $37.05

1 Month avg volatility: $0.20. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $37.53 or 1.3% above the close.

Change YTD: 26.15%

Volume: 10,224,000 shares.
3 month avg: 3,251,511 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.

 

Chart pattern: Broadening top reversal pattern from 10/16/2017 to 11/24/2017

Breakout is downward 50% of the time.

Average decline: 15%.

Break-even failure rate: 18%.

Pullbacks occur 48% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 37% of the time.

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Market Monday: The Week Ahead….

Blog: December 2023 As of 12/06/2023   Indus: 36,054 -70.13 -0.2%     Trans: 15,230 -59.66 -0.4%     Utils: 879 +12.34 +1.4%   ...

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