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Market Profile Analysis of S&P Futures – 04.17.18…

Value Areas and POC figures for /ESM8 and /NQM8 Futures are posted free every morning HERE. Click on any posts in the list on the left pane to see them in the main window. Don’t click on the ST logo as it will just refresh the page and you’ll get only the topmost post over and over. Click on the title or text.

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-Overnight inventory very net long but not quite 100%.

-Yesterday’s high was poor but futures gapping strongly thus far so it certainly doesn’t feel like any longs are trapped.

-The volume POC did migrate higher with price, so that’s bullish.

-The structure yesterday has some anomalies to it that need to be repaired eventually. The anomalies are the single prints sticking out on the right edge. Carry them forward.

-We are currently trading on a +16.25 gap and we are slated to open out of balance so it’s a true gap. Gap rules apply.

Scenario one:
The gap holds. As the rule says, “go with all gaps that don’t fill right away.” This will be tricky as the gap is greater than 10. If it is a go, however, there will be very high a/d line (+1500 or better and pegged all day), ticks will not go negative at all in the first 30 minutes, and breadth will also open and hold better than 3:1 or so.

Scenario two:
It’s a fade relatively early as the ONH fails to get taken out OR it does get taken out and then S&P futures pull back into the overnight range. You would put a stop above the high of the day and look for a gap fill which would be a move to yesterday’s (poor) RTH high at 2687.00.

Scenario three:
The gap holds but there is no playable rally in futures. Futures will oscillate in a very tight range close to their open. Internals will remain bullish but price movement will be muted. In this case, forget about the /ES and look to daytrade equities long. Stocks usually run hard if futures hold a large gap.

Have a nice day,
peter


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