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Market Profile Analysis of S&P Futures – 05.09.18…

Value Areas and POC figures for /ESM8 and /NQM8 Futures are posted free every morning HERE. Click on any posts in the list on the left pane to see them in the main window. Don’t click on the ST logo as it will just refresh the page and you’ll get only the topmost post over and over. Click on the title or text.

market profile

True gap this morning of +7.25 currently. Gap rules apply. Overnight inventory is relatively balanced which is bullish as it lessens the need for rebalancing at the open.

If you look at highs from April 26, 27, 30, and then May 7th, you can see that those highs are all within points of each other. This 2680.00 area is the key reference in today’s trade. The ONH has cleared this area, topping out at 2684.50 but we are currently trading well below that. So the early game will be to see how strong this resistance is and if sellers knock the market back down or not.

2674.25 is yesterday’s RTH high which was an excess high and has single prints down to 2671.00. Watch this area closely today as it could be an inflection point.

Scenario one:
The gap holds; any early selling would either get rejected at yesterday’s RTH high or come slightly into yesterday’s range and move back out. Get long early with a stop below the low of the day with the target of moving to the ONH and beyond.

Scenario two:
The ONH never gets taken out and value starts to develop within yesterday’s excess high and below. In such a situation, unless selling is very strong, I would expect that responsive trade would be the M.O. with supports at VAH and other profile references.

Scenario three:
If the ONL at 2666.50 gets taken out and prices find acceptance below that level, then there is chance of further selling down to VAL and possibly lower. If internals are confirming, sell rallies. Use caution as you would be right in the meat of yesterday’s value if this is the scenario that develops.

Have a great day,
peter


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