Market Profile Analysis of S&P Futures – 09.14.17…

Value Areas and POC figures for /ESZ7 and /NQZ7 Futures are posted free every morning HERE. Click on any posts in the list on the left pane to see them in the main window. Don’t click on the ST logo as it will just refresh the page and you’ll get only the topmost post over and over. Click on the title or text.

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What I’m seeing as the key takeaways from the market profile graphic currently are all noted on the chart. The market is backing off overnight here on the heels of some back to back poor highs. Remember that when they stack like that it’s exponentially powerful. Focus on the fact that short term action is overly long at those highs rather than thinking about the repair which would be bullish. The picture is bullish for now, but the main thing to note is that there are definitely some traders stuck long at those levels. Given that, we know that the market should come in a bit. If it doesn’t at all, then it’s very strong, indeed.

The bottom of that first small gap (2487.00) is my main focus in early trade. If that can’t even get filled, then again, there is very little interest out there on the part of sellers. Note that we have a VPOC at 2485.50 just below. Again, a market that is backing off will move towards these signposts and then either reject (bullish) or blow through (more bearish). All can be tradeable turning points for the agile trader.

Overnight inventory is very balanced this morning and I’m noting that the majority of the weakness in the futures happened just recently, more than likely driven by 8:30am EST economic data. This in and of itself is a sign to me that stronger sellers are not present. Feels like knee-jerk reaction to news.

2495.50 is the main upside reference which is an all time high and also a double top both with the overnight session that preceded it and the prior RTH session whose high was just a couple ticks below.

Yesterday’s value area was very squat and is only 9 ticks from high to low. It left a very prominent POC inside of it which should be carried forward. This area may be revisited today on a rally as prominent POC’s have greater odds of being tested than less prominent ones.

As always, pay attention to where value develops. That is and will always be the most important thing to remember as you go about your trading day. As my mentor in the profile James Dalton often remarked, “we trade value, not price”.

Have a kick-ass day!
-peter