Trading Quiz Tuesday…

Friday 5/5/23. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

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Here’s a symbol list of 193 chart and candlestick patterns (13 “investment grade” candle patterns) found in today’s securities using my version of Patternz:
AYI, ADBE, AFL, APD, ATSG, AEO, AXP, ANIK, APA, APOG, ASH, ATO, ADSK, AVNT, AXS, AZTA, BALL, BAX, BERY, BA, BKNG, BSX, BFH, BCO, CNP, CHS, CI, CNO, CTSH, CL, CMCO, CMTL, CAG, GLW, CR, CRH, CCK, DDS, DFS, DSGR, ^DJT, ^DJI, EPAM, EQT, EVH, FARO, FORM, FTNT, FWRD, FCX, FRD, GNW, GILD, GS, GES, HSC, HQY, HSII, HNI, HOLX, HUM, IEX, IDXX, INCY, INFN, ITGR, IPG, IPI, NVTA, JKHY, JNJ, KELYA, KMB, KSS, LH, LEG, LNC, LPLA, MTSI, MGY, MAN, MCHX, MRTN, MLM, MTDR, MDC, MLKN, MS, MOS, NEWR, NXGN, NKE, NWPX, OGE, ASGN, OTEX, OUT, OMI, PKE, PATK, PDCO, PXD, PLXS, PPG, PFG, PG, PRU, QTWO, QCOM, DGX, RJF, RTX, RGS, RGA, RLI, RCKY, ROP, ^GSPC, SBH, SCHW, SAIC, SMG, SEIC, SIGI, SRE, SMTC, SWN, SUM, TPR, TRGP, TDY, TXT, TMO, TKR, TZOO, UPS, UNM, VMC, WSM, WOLF, WWW, XEL, ITA, IAI, IYC, IEZ, IDU, DDM, IHF, IAT, IYZ, IGE, IYF, IHI, EWQ, EWI, EWJ, PPA, DBA, PBE, PEJ, PXJ, PJP, IXC, SSO, MXI, XLF, XLB, SPY, XAR, XLU, UNG. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

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You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

The following patterns were found manually, not using Patternz. Mr. Bulkowski has excluded any securities he owns from appearing in the list. However, he may add any of the securities listed to his portfolio at any time, just as you can.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

For details about the chart patterns, click here.

— Thomas Bulkowski

Thursday 5/4/23. Cryptocurrency Bitcoin Review

Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:

     The prediction of the Nasdaq closing higher has been right 257/453 or 56.7% of the time.

     The prediction of the Nasdaq closing lower has been right 71/147 or 48.3% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

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I show a picture of the bitcoin (BTC-USD) on the daily scale.

At point A is a chart pattern called a broadening top. The breakout is upward 60% of the time and that’s what we see here. A breakout occurs when price closes either above the top or below
the bottom of the chart pattern.

After the breakout, the currency has struggled to move higher. To me, that suggests the coin could drop, but that’s just a guess. Sometimes, it means it’s gathering strength before a strong push higher. I’d
be cautious, though. This could develop into a trap (bearish top trap).

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Here’s a symbol list of 200 chart and candlestick patterns (13 “investment grade” candle patterns) found in today’s securities using my version of Patternz:
ACN, ATSG, AKAM, AA, ALL, AXP, AFG, ABC, AME, AR, AAPL, AMAT, ADM, ANET, ASH, AIZ, AVY, AXS, AZTA, BMI, BAX, BZH, BERY, BA, BKNG, BSX, BCO, BR, BBW, BLDR, CDNS, CE, CNP, CVX, CHS, CIEN, CTAS, CSCO, CLF, CNO, CL, CMTL, CAG, GLW, CRH, DVN, FANG, DDS, ^DJI, EXP, EMN, EIX, EMR, EQT, EL, XOM, FDS, FMC, FCX, FDP, FRD, GD, GNW, GILD, GS, GES, THG, HAYN, HQY, HUM, ITW, INCY, INFN, PODD, INTU, NVTA, IRM, JNJ, KMB, KSS, LAMR, LLY, LOW, LPLA, MHO, MCHX, MTDR, MRCY, MLKN, MCO, MS, MOS, MUR, NXGN, JWN, OXY, OMC, OMI, OXM, PKE, PTEN, PPG, PG, PRU, PHM, QTWO, KWR, RJF, RTX, RLI, RCKY, ROP, ^GSPC, CRM, SAIC, SMG, SEE, SEIC, SCI, STR, SKX, SMAR, SWN, SSYS, TXT, TKR, TSCO, TRV, TZOO, UGI, UIS, UNM, VEEV, VRSN, VC, WAT, WU, WOLF, XEL, ITA, IYM, IAI, IYE, ITB, DDM, FXI, IYZ, IGV, SOXX, IGE, IEO, IYF, IHI, EWA, EWO, EWC, EEM, EWH, EWI, EPP, EWS, EWL, TUR, PXJ, ROBO, IXC, SSO, MXI, XLE, XLF, XHB, SPY, XLK, UNG, USO. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

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The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day’s high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences),
the area might act as support or resistance.

— Thomas Bulkowski

Wednesday 5/3/23. A Look At Indicators

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A quick note: Within the next month, until the politicians see fit to raise the US debt limit, expect large swings in the market. If they don’t agree, the market is going to crash.

You might want to view this as an opportunity to buy the dip on large down moves. If they don’t agree on a limit, then I don’t know how far we’ll drop, but it’s going to be breathtaking.
In 1987, we dropped 22% in one session, 31% in three sessions. So maybe a third, 33% this time.

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This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

Notice that the indicator has turned bearish and that’s not good news. Of course, large swings in the market push the CPI around. The indicator can change for up to a week, but as the above
note indicates, this month is going to be bumpy.

The red line is the percentage of stocks at least 20% below their 1-year high (plotted upside down). The blue line is the average percentage drop of stocks below their 1-year high (plotted upside down).

Both lines show marginal improvement over a week ago, but I think that’s a fluke. The thin red line shows a lower peak even as price makes a new high. The thicker red lines show the bearish divergence between
the indicator and the index.

So even though the numbers above are positive, this development is bearish.

Both charts are either bearish or hinting of being bearish. So expect the market to drop or continue lower.

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Here’s a symbol list of 148 chart and candlestick patterns (13 “investment grade” candle patterns) found in today’s securities using my version of Patternz:
ACN, ATSG, ALB, AEO, AEP, AME, AR, AAPL, ADM, ATO, ADSK, BAX, BKH, BCO, BR, CDNS, CNP, CVX, CLNE, CTSH, CL, COST, CRH, DVN, DFS, D, DTE, EIX, ELV, FLS, FORM, FDP, FRD, GPS, GNW, GILD, HBI, THG, HAYN, HQY, HSIC, HOV, HUM, HURC, IBKR, INTU, NVTA, JNJ, KSS, LZB, LEN, LOW, MTSI, MRO, MCHX, MKTX, MTDR, META, MLKN, MS, MUR, NCR, NFLX, NTAP, NXGN, NI, JWN, NWPX, OXY, OGE, PTEN, PRFT, PNW, PG, PEG, QTWO, RL, RJF, REGN, RNG, RLI, RCKY, CRM, SEE, STR, SO, SWN, SSYS, SNPS, TPR, TECH, TSCO, RIG, UHAL, UGI, VFC, VEEV, VC, WSM, WWD, WDAY, XEL, ITA, IYE, IEZ, IDU, IYZ, IGV, SOXX, IGE, IEO, IHI, EIS, EWI, EWJ, EWP, TUR, PXJ, IXC, ILF, MXI, XLE, XLF, XRT, XLK, XLU, UNG, USO. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

— Thomas Bulkowski

Tuesday 5/2/23. Slider Trading Quiz! Watsco: WSO

Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:

     The prediction of the Dow closing higher has been right 262/473 or 55.4% of the time.

     The prediction of the Dow closing lower has been right 50/107 or 46.7% of the time.

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I show another slider trading quiz featuring Watsco: WSO stock.

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Here’s a symbol list of 96 chart and candlestick patterns (13 “investment grade” candle patterns) found in today’s securities using my version of Patternz:
AXDX, AEIS, ALB, ALKS, ALL, AYX, AMED, AEL, AXP, AFG, AAPL, ADSK, AZTA, BAX, BECN, BOOT, BCO, BBW, CLS, CNP, CF, CHKP, CL, CMTL, COST, CROX, BOOM, ELV, EZPW, FE, FIVN, FCX, GPS, GGG, GFF, HLIT, HAYN, HSIC, HSY, HURC, INCY, PODD, IBKR, IPG, IPI, KFRC, LANC, LDOS, L, LXU, MHO, MDC, META, MS, MOS, NTAP, NXGN, NOVT, NVDA, OXM, PPL, PG, RL, RGS, RCKY, ROP, SBH, SO, TDC, UGI, VFC, VMI, VEEV, VC, WWW, FTEC, FXL, IYZ, IHI, EWA, EWO, EWZ, EIS, TUR, GLD, XRT, XLK, SMH. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

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The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day’s high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences),
the area might act as support or resistance.

— Thomas Bulkowski

Monday 5/1/23. 2023 Forecast Update

Here’s the updated 2023 forecast, presented in slider format.

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Based on sector performance from Fidelity, the best performing sectors for year-to-date performance as of 4/28/2023 were…
(The numbering is how they ranked a month ago.)

2. Communication services (24%)

1. Information technology (21%)

3. Consumer discretionary (15%)

6. Consumer staples (3%)

4. Materials (2%)

5. Industrials (1%)

7. Real estate (1%)

10. Utilities (-2%)

9. Health care (-3%)

8. Energy (-4%)

11. Financials (-4%)

The folks at two firms polled by Fidelity weigh the sectors in this order, as of 4/21/23.

1. Information technology (IT)

2. Health care

3. Financials

4. Consumer discretionary

5. Industrials

6. Communication services

7. Consumer staples

8. Energy

9. Utilities

10. Materials

11. Real estate

Here’s how they rank the industries, but only the top 10 appear. One-year change, as of 4/27/23. The numbering is how they ranked a month ago.

1. Construction and engineering (+44%)

4. Household durables (+18%)

2. Oil, gas and consumable fuels (+16%)

5. Trading companies and distributors (+16%)

New. Hotels, restaurants and leisure (+14%)

New. Software (+11%)

New. Independent power and renewable elec producers (+10%)

New. Semiconductors and semi equipment (+10)

8. Commercial services and supplies (+10%)

New. Industrial conglomerates (+10%)

Here’s a symbol list of 108 chart and candlestick patterns (13 “investment grade” candle patterns) found in today’s securities using my version of Patternz:
ABT, AJRD, ALL, AYX, AMED, AEL, AMWD, ANIK, AAPL, ARW, ASH, AVY, BAX, BZH, BMY, BBW, BLDR, CBT, CPB, CLS, CNP, CF, CLNE, CL, CXW, GLW, COTY, XRAY, FANG, DSGR, DRQ, ELV, FARO, FDX, FE, FCX, GFF, HLIT, HOLX, HWM, HUBG, HUN, INTC, TILE, KFRC, LPLA, MAS, MA, MTRX, MDC, MU, MYGN, ^IXIC, NTGR, NTAP, NWL, NEE, NXGN, OMI, OXM, PKG, PEN, PG, PGR, PHM, DGX, REGN, RGS, RCKY, ROG, ROP, SMAR, TDY, TOL, TSCO, TZOO, SLCA, UNH, VRSN, WRB, WU, WMB, WWW, IYK, ITB, IEZ, IYH, IGE, IHI, EWZ, EWW, EWS, EWT, TUR. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

The below industries were the best (rank 1) or worst performing of those I follow.

— Thomas Bulkowski