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Trading Quiz Tuesday: Standex Internationsl: SXI (2)…

Blog: October 2022

Bulkowski's Blog: ThePatternSite.com

As of 10/06/2022

  Indus: 29,927 -346.93 -1.1%  

  Trans: 12,839 -14.68 -0.1%  

  Utils: 882 -27.65 -3.0%  

  Nasdaq: 11,073 -75.33 -0.7%  

  S&P 500: 3,745 -38.76 -1.0%  

YTD

-17.6%  

-22.1%  

-10.1%  

-29.2%  

-21.4%  

  Up arrow30,800 or 27,500 by 10/15/2022
  Up arrow13,800 or 11,800 by 10/15/2022
  Up arrow950 or 850 by 10/15/2022
  Up arrow11,500 or 9,700 by 10/15/2022
  Up arrow3,800 or 3,500 by 10/15/2022

As of 10/06/2022

  Indus: 29,927 -346.93 -1.1%  

  Trans: 12,839 -14.68 -0.1%  

  Utils: 882 -27.65 -3.0%  

  Nasdaq: 11,073 -75.33 -0.7%  

  S&P 500: 3,745 -38.76 -1.0%  

YTD

-17.6%  

-22.1%  

-10.1%  

-29.2%  

-21.4%  

  Up arrow30,800 or 27,500 by 10/15/2022
  Up arrow13,800 or 11,800 by 10/15/2022
  Up arrow950 or 850 by 10/15/2022
  Up arrow11,500 or 9,700 by 10/15/2022
  Up arrow3,800 or 3,500 by 10/15/2022

 


Friday 10/7/22. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

$ $ $

Here’s a symbol list of 98 chart and candlestick patterns (13 “investment grade” candle patterns) found in today’s securities using my version of Patternz:
ANF, ALB, AMWD, ANIK, ARCB, ACGL, ADP, BSET, BECN, BOOT, CALM, CF, CRL, CLX, CMCO, CAG, COP, CLR, CR, CROX, CW, D, EVH, FFIV, FORM, FTNT, FCX, FRD, HE, HL, HOLX, HUBG, JBHT, IDA, IEX, INFN, IBP, IIIN, IPI, JAZZ, LZB, LEN, LMT, LXU, MAS, MTRN, MDC, MU, NOV, NFLX, NUS, OXY, OMCL, PYPL, PRFT, PETS, KWR, QCOM, RMBS, RJF, RGS, RGA, RHI, RES, SCHW, SIGI, SCCO, SWX, SRDX, TPR, TDC, TEVA, RIG, VMI, VEEV, VRSN, VC, WSO, WLK, ICF, IHF, IYZ, EWK, EWW, EZA, EWP, TUR, PBE, USO. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

The following patterns were found manually, not using Patternz. Mr. Bulkowski has excluded any securities he owns from appearing in the list. However, he may add any of the securities listed to his portfolio at any time, just as you can.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

For details about the chart patterns, click here.

— Thomas Bulkowski

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 Symbol  Chart Pattern  Bullish 
 Bearish 
Start End Industry
AYI Double Bottom, Adam and Eve        09/19/2022 09/27/2022 Furn/Home Furnishings
APA Double Top, Adam and Eve        08/29/2022 09/15/2022 Petroleum (Producing)
ACGL Pipe bottom        09/19/2022 09/26/2022 Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
BECN Pipe bottom        09/19/2022 09/26/2022 Retail Building Supply
CRL Pipe bottom        09/19/2022 09/26/2022 Biotechnology
CINF Double Bottom, Adam and Adam        09/26/2022 09/30/2022 Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
COP Broadening top        08/29/2022 10/06/2022 Petroleum (Integrated)
CR Pipe bottom        09/19/2022 09/26/2022 Diversified Co.
CROX Pipe bottom        09/19/2022 09/26/2022 Shoe
CTS Double Top, Adam and Adam        09/12/2022 09/21/2022 Electronics
CW Pipe bottom        09/19/2022 09/26/2022 Machinery
GME Triangle, symmetrical        09/07/2022 10/06/2022 Retail (Special Lines)
GES Double Bottom, Adam and Adam        09/26/2022 09/30/2022 Apparel
THG Double Bottom, Adam and Adam        09/27/2022 10/03/2022 Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
HL Broadening bottom        08/22/2022 10/06/2022 Metals and Mining (Div.)
HSY Broadening top, right-angled and ascending        09/21/2022 10/06/2022 Food Processing
IDXX Double Bottom, Adam and Eve        09/23/2022 10/03/2022 Drug
ILMN Double Bottom, Adam and Adam        09/26/2022 10/03/2022 Biotechnology
INFN Pipe bottom        09/19/2022 09/26/2022 Telecom. Equipment
IBP Pipe bottom        09/19/2022 09/26/2022 Retail Building Supply
ITGR Dead-cat bounce        10/06/2022 10/06/2022 Electronics
INTU Double Bottom, Adam and Adam        09/23/2022 09/30/2022 Computer Software and Svcs
LEN Double Bottom, Eve and Eve        09/14/2022 09/27/2022 Homebuilding
LLY Triple bottom        08/08/2022 09/21/2022 Drug
L Double Bottom, Adam and Adam        09/26/2022 09/30/2022 Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
LOW Double Bottom, Eve and Adam        09/23/2022 09/30/2022 Retail Building Supply
MTSI Triple bottom        09/01/2022 09/30/2022 Semiconductor
MAS Pipe bottom        09/19/2022 09/26/2022 Building Materials
MTRN Pipe bottom        09/19/2022 09/26/2022 Metals and Mining (Div.)
MU Pipe bottom        09/19/2022 09/26/2022 Semiconductor
NOV Pipe bottom        09/19/2022 09/26/2022 Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
NFLX Rectangle top        07/28/2022 10/06/2022 Internet
OXY Pipe bottom        09/19/2022 09/26/2022 Petroleum (Producing)
OMC Double Bottom, Eve and Adam        09/26/2022 10/03/2022 Advertising
RMBS Double Bottom, Eve and Adam        09/01/2022 09/23/2022 Semiconductor Cap Equip.
RGA Pipe bottom        09/19/2022 09/26/2022 Insurance (Life)
RHI Pipe bottom        09/19/2022 09/26/2022 Human Resources
RES Pipe bottom        09/19/2022 09/26/2022 Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
SCCO Pipe bottom        09/19/2022 09/26/2022 Metals and Mining (Div.)
SWN Double Top, Adam and Adam        08/23/2022 09/14/2022 Natural Gas (Diversified)
SRDX Pipe bottom        09/19/2022 09/26/2022 Medical Supplies
TEVA Pipe bottom        09/19/2022 09/26/2022 Drug
TKR Double Bottom, Adam and Adam        09/23/2022 09/29/2022 Metal Fabricating
UPS Double Bottom, Adam and Adam        09/26/2022 10/03/2022 Air Transport
VMI Pipe bottom        09/19/2022 09/26/2022 Metal Fabricating
VRTX Roof        08/29/2022 09/26/2022 Biotechnology

 

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Thursday 10/6/22. Intraday Market Direction: Nasdaq

The Nasdaq dropped by -0.2% or -27.77 points. Since 02/05/1971 the Nasdaq made 536 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day’s…

     Average gain was 0.7% on 280 occasions.

     Average loss was -0.8% on 256 occasions.

Expect the Nasdaq to close higher 52.2% of the time.

Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:

     The prediction of the Nasdaq closing higher has been right 245/433 or 56.6% of the time.

     The prediction of the Nasdaq closing lower has been right 66/138 or 47.8% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5 minute scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5-minute scale.

I drew a red trendline to highlight how the line fit within price. At AB, there’s a chart pattern called a bump-and-run reversal top. A is the lead-in phase which leads to the bump phase, at B.

Price moves down below the trendline but in this case, it doesn’t go down far enough (to C) to fulfill the measure rule target (the largest vertical distance from price to the trendline in the bump phase).
Instead, the index moves higher after C, which suggests underlying strength in the index.

Because the index stalled at the old high, it could turn into a 2-B pattern and price will drop.

I’m not sure a drop is what’ll happen. The move from C upward was a nice push of strength. We might see another round of bulls pushing up price.

$ $ $

Here’s a symbol list of 66 chart and candlestick patterns (13 “investment grade” candle patterns) found in today’s securities using my version of Patternz:
ANF, ALRM, ALL, ACGL, BECN, BOOT, CALM, CF, CRL, CHD, CL, CLR, CR, CROX, CW, DRQ, WIRE, EVH, XOM, FWRD, FCX, FRD, HL, HELE, HOLX, INFN, IBP, IPI, LEN, LMT, LXU, MRO, MAS, MTRN, MTRX, MU, NOV, OXY, OMCL, PRFT, RGS, RGA, RHI, RES, SCHW, SMTC, SCCO, SWX, SWN, SRDX, TEVA, RIG, VMI, VEEV, WSO, WERN, WLK, WWW, EEM, EWH, PBE, PXJ, UNG, USO. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day’s high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences),
the area might act as support or resistance.

— Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2022 ThePatternSite.com    Metric   Value   Diff   Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2   9,375.43      
 Monthly S1   10,262.03   886.61   
 Weekly S2   10,411.65   149.62   
 Weekly S1   10,780.15   368.49   
 Daily S2   10,790.35   10.20   Yes! The Daily S2 is close to the Weekly S1.
 Low   10,910.76   120.41   
 Weekly Pivot   10,940.82   30.06   
 Daily S1   10,969.49   28.67   Yes! The Daily S1 is close to the Weekly Pivot.
 Open   11,022.67   53.18   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High   11,025.19   2.52   Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Open.
 50% Down from Intraday High   11,060.54   35.35   
 Daily Pivot   11,089.91   29.37   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 50% Down from Intraday High.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High   11,095.89   5.98   Yes! The 38.2% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 Close   11,148.64   52.75   
 High   11,210.32   61.68   
 Daily R1   11,269.05   58.73   
 Weekly R1   11,309.32   40.26   
 Daily R2   11,389.47   80.15   
 Monthly Pivot   11,458.94   69.47   
 Weekly R2   11,469.99   11.06   Yes! The Weekly R2 is close to the Monthly Pivot.
 Monthly R1   12,345.54   875.55   
 Monthly R2   13,542.45   1,196.90   


Wednesday 10/5/22. 2022 Forecast Update

Here’s the updated 2022 forecast, presented in slider format.

Based on sector performance from Fidelity, the best performing sectors for year-to-date performance as of 4 October 2022 were…
(The numbering is how they ranked a month ago.)

1. Energy (+43%)

2. Utilities (6%)

3. Consumer staples (-1%)

4. Health care (-3%)

7. Materials (-12%)

5. Industrials (-14%)

8. Real estate (-18%)

6. Financials (-18%)

9. Information technology (-19%)

10. Consumer discretionary (-22%)

11. Communication services (-39%)

The folks at two firms polled by Fidelity weigh the sectors in this order, as of 9/30/22.

1. Information technology (IT)

2. Health care

3. Consumer discretionary

4. Financials

5. Communication services

6. Industrials

7. Consumer staples

8. Energy

9. Utilities

10. Real estate

11. Materials

Here’s how they rank the industries, but only the top 10 appear. One-year change, as of 10/3/22. The numbering is how they ranked a month ago.

1. Oil, gas and consumable fuels (+46%)

4. Health care providers and services (+23%)

3. Energy equipment and services (+14%)

2. Construction and engineering (+13%)

5. Food products (9%)

8. Beverages (+8%)

7. Multi-utilities (+7%)

New. Pharmaceuticals (+7%)

9. Electric utilities (6%)

6. Biotechnology (+3%)

$ $ $

Here’s a symbol list of 235 chart and candlestick patterns (13 “investment grade” candle patterns) found in today’s securities using my version of Patternz:
ANF, AXDX, ACN, ACIW, AYI, ADBE, ADTN, AJRD, AES, AFL, APD, ATSG, ALL, DOX, AEL, AMWD, AMN, APH, APA, ACGL, ARW, ASH, AGO, ADSK, AVY, AVNT, AZTA, BMI, BCPC, BALL, BECN, BERY, BOOT, BAH, BRC, BBW, BLDR, CALM, CAL, CE, CLS, CF, CRL, CVX, CLF, CMTL, CONN, COP, CLR, CR, CRH, CROX, CSGS, CMI, CW, DVN, DDS, DOV, BOOM, EXP, EMN, EMR, EOG, EFX, EQT, RE, EVH, XOM, FFIV, FDS, FLS, FMC, FORM, FTNT, FCX, FRD, IT, GPN, GOOGL, GFF, HL, HSII, HOLX, HD, HOV, IEX, IDXX, ILMN, INFN, IBP, ITGR, IBKR, TILE, IPI, ISRG, NVTA, JKHY, KALU, KELYA, KMT, KFRC, LEN, LNC, LXU, MHO, M, MAN, MRO, MLM, MAS, MTRN, MU, MSFT, MLI, MUR, NBR, NFG, NOV, NTAP, NWL, NEU, NVDA, OXY, ASGN, OXM, PKG, PANW, PTEN, PRFT, PETS, PPG, PFG, PRU, DGX, RMBS, RJF, RGS, RGA, RHI, ROK, RES, SLB, SCHW, SEE, SLGN, SCCO, SWN, SXI, SRDX, SNPS, TDC, TEVA, TKR, TJX, TOL, RIG, TZOO, SLCA, VLO, VMI, VEEV, VMC, WAT, WSO, WU, WLK, WMB, WDAY, IYM, IYE, IEZ, QTEC, FXL, BOTZ, IGV, SLV, IGE, IEO, IYF, IHI, EWO, EWK, EWC, ECH, EEM, EWQ, EWG, EWH, EIS, EWI, EZA, EWP, EWD, EWU, IBB, PBE, PXJ, PJP, PHO, ROBO, IEV, IXC, MXI, XLE, XLF, GLD, XLB, USO, VAW. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

— Thomas Bulkowski

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Tuesday 10/4/22. Slider Trading Quiz! Standex International: SXI

The Dow climbed by 2.7% or 765.38 points. Since 10/01/1928 the Dow made 26 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day’s…

     Average gain was 1.8% on 11 occasions.

     Average loss was -0.5% on 15 occasions.

Expect the Dow to close lower 57.7% of the time.

Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:

     The prediction of the Dow closing higher has been right 250/451 or 55.4% of the time.

     The prediction of the Dow closing lower has been right 49/100 or 49.0% of the time.

$ $ $

I show another slider trading quiz featuring Standex International: SXI (2) stock.

$ $ $

Here’s a symbol list of 113 chart and candlestick patterns (13 “investment grade” candle patterns) found in today’s securities using my version of Patternz:
MMM, ABT, AXDX, AYI, AA, ALL, AMGN, AON, APA, AIZ, ATO, BIIB, BKH, BFH, CACI, CALM, CNP, CENX, CSCO, CTSH, ED, GLW, CCRN, CSGS, DHR, DVN, DDS, DSGR, ^DJU, ^DJT, ^DJI, D, DUK, EMR, WIRE, EOG, EQT, EVRG, FFIV, GE, GILD, HSC, HAYN, HL, HELE, HSIC, HNI, HOLX, HON, IDA, NSP, IPAR, KALU, LH, L, LOW, MTSI, MRO, MCHX, MTRN, MUR, NBR, NOV, NTAP, NJR, NEE, NI, OXY, OGE, OLN, OTEX, OXM, PDCO, PAYX, PNW, PPG, PPL, PGR, KWR, RES, CRM, SLB, SMTC, SKX, SO, SWX, TDOC, TXN, TMO, TJX, TG, UGI, UNM, WERN, DDM, IYH, IHF, IYZ, SLV, EIS, EWW, EZA, THD, PXJ, IXN, XLV, XLK, XLU, UNG, VHT. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day’s high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences),
the area might act as support or resistance.

— Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2022 ThePatternSite.com    Metric   Value   Diff   Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2   25,874.96      
 Monthly S1   27,682.93   1,807.96   
 Weekly S2   28,243.58   560.65   
 Daily S2   28,538.77   295.19   
 Open   28,855.25   316.48   
 Low   28,855.25   0.00   Yes! The Low is close to the Open.
 Weekly S1   28,867.23   11.98   Yes! The Weekly S1 is close to the Low.
 Daily S1   29,014.83   147.60   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High   29,158.00   143.17   
 50% Down from Intraday High   29,251.52   93.52   
 Daily Pivot   29,331.31   79.79   
 Weekly Pivot   29,339.51   8.20   Yes! The Weekly Pivot is close to the Daily Pivot.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High   29,345.04   5.53   Yes! The 38.2% Down from Intraday High is close to the Weekly Pivot.
 Close   29,490.89   145.85   
 High   29,647.79   156.90   
 Daily R1   29,807.37   159.58   
 Weekly R1   29,963.16   155.79   
 Daily R2   30,123.85   160.69   
 Weekly R2   30,435.44   311.59   
 Monthly Pivot   30,523.81   88.38   
 Monthly R1   32,331.78   1,807.96   
 Monthly R2   35,172.66   2,840.89   


Monday 10/3/22. Market Monday: The Week Ahead

My Prediction

Picture of the Dow transports on the weekly scale.

I didn’t see anything worth reporting on the Dow transports on the daily scale, so I show the weekly scale instead.

I show support areas, places where the index might stop declining as three red lines.

Red line A is where I thought the index would find support, but it barreled right on through that.

Line B is where we’re at now, matching prior valleys in early 2021.

Line C looks to be the next significant support area. I don’t know whether the index will make it down to C. It could turn upward before then. However, if Putin uses a nuke, we could see a drop to C easily.

After that, we’ll have to wait and see.

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A Brief Look Back

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

Monday: Down 329.6 points.

Tuesday: Down 125.82 points.

Wednesday: Up 548.75 points.

Thursday: Down 458.13 points.

Friday: Down 500.1 points.

For the Week…

The Dow industrials were down 864.9 points or 2.9%.

The Nasdaq composite was down 292.31 points or 2.7%.

The S&P 500 index was down 107.61 points or 2.9%.

Year to Date…

Dow Industrials

     22.3% down from the high of 36,952.65 on 01/05/2022.

     0.0% up from the low of 28,715.85 on 09/30/2022.

Nasdaq

     33.3% down from the high of 15,852.14 on 01/04/2022.

     0.1% up from the low of 10,565.14 on 06/16/2022.

S&P 500

     25.6% down from the high of 4,818.62 on 01/04/2022.

     0.0% up from the low of 3,584.13 on 09/30/2022.

Options Expiration

No options expire this week.

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Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, “Take a
two-dimensional approach.” He offers these tips.

Index S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2
Dow Industrials (^DJI): Daily   28,292   28,509   28,932   29,149   29,572 
Weekly   27,988   28,357   29,084   29,453   30,180 
Monthly   25,620   27,173   30,269   31,822   34,918 
S&P500 (^GSPC): Daily   3,526   3,556   3,614   3,643   3,701 
Weekly   3,483   3,534   3,635   3,687   3,788 
Monthly   3,172   3,379   3,791   3,998   4,410 
Nasdaq (^IXIC): Daily   10,366   10,471   10,677   10,782   10,988 
Weekly   10,221   10,398   10,750   10,927   11,279 
Monthly   9,184   9,880   11,268   11,964   13,351 
  • Seekinger doesn’t look at the range of S2 to R2 as support and resistance levels. Rather, he considers them oversold (S) and overbought (R) areas.
  • S2 to R2 range of values across daily, weekly, and monthly periods: If two values are close together then they lend more significance to the area.
  • If the market trends on day 1, the odds rise tremendously that the market will be range bound between daily S1 and daily R1 the next day.
  • In a quiet market when traders are waiting for an important earnings announcement or economic report, look for daily R1 and S1 levels to hold and for the market to return to the daily pivot.
  • A move outside of daily R1 or S1 usually does not mean a breakout.
  • The odds suggest that the entire week’s price action will remain between weekly R2 and S2.
  • Avoid going long when the market moves above weekly R2 (it’s overbought) and avoid going short when price moves below weekly S2 (oversold).
  • Consider going short at weekly R1 or long at weekly S1 with a profit objective of the weekly pivot.
  • Consider going long at weekly S2 or short at weekly R2 with a profit objective of weekly S1 or R1, respectively.

Here are the formulas:

Pivot point: P = (H + L + C)/3

First resistance level: R1 = (2 * P) – L

First support level: S1 = (2 * P) – H)

Second resistance level: R2 = P + (R1 – S1)

Second support level: S2 = P – (R1 – S1)

H = high price , L=low price, C=closing price

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Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season is over.

Here’s a symbol list of 76 chart and candlestick patterns (13 “investment grade” candle patterns) found in today’s securities using my version of Patternz:
ANF, ADBE, AES, ALL, AFG, AMGN, APH, AON, ARCB, ARW, BMI, BFH, CALM, COTY, CW, DECK, DRQ, EIX, WIRE, EVRG, EXC, EXPD, EZPW, GPS, IT, GE, GIS, GILD, HBI, HLIT, HSC, HIG, HTLD, HELE, HOLX, IDXX, ITGR, JNJ, K, KELYA, KMT, KSS, L, MLKN, MYGN, NCR, NWL, NEE, NKE, NUS, OMI, QCOM, ROK, SKX, SO, SUM, TDOC, TDC, TJX, TSCO, UNM, VFC, VRSN, VRTX, V, WAT, WOLF, WWW, WDAY, SLV, IHI, EIS, EWL, MGK. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

The below industries were the best (rank 1) or worst performing of those I follow.

This Week Last Week
1. Short ETFs 1. Short ETFs
2. Food Processing 2. Food Processing
3. Petroleum (Integrated) 3. Natural Gas (Diversified)
4. Petroleum (Producing) 4. Electric Utility (Central)
5. Metal Fabricating 5. Electric Utility (East)
6. Natural Gas (Diversified) 6. Electric Utility (West)
7. Machinery 7. Natural Gas (Distributor)
8. Chemical (Diversified) 8. Household Products
9. Securities Brokerage 9. Metal Fabricating
10. Natural Gas (Distributor) 10. Petroleum (Integrated)
Best Performing Above Worst Performing Below
50. Apparel 50. Diversified Co.
51. Air Transport 51. Apparel
52. Diversified Co. 52. Air Transport
53. Advertising 53. Advertising
54. Computers and Peripherals 54. Metals and Mining (Div.)
55. Toiletries/Cosmetics 55. Internet
56. Internet 56. Computers and Peripherals
57. Semiconductor Cap Equip. 57. E-Commerce
58. Oilfield Svcs/Equipment 58. Semiconductor Cap Equip.
59. E-Commerce 59. Semiconductor
60. Semiconductor 60. Oilfield Svcs/Equipment

— Thomas Bulkowski

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