Trading Quiz Tuesday: Wrigley (WWY)…

Monday 4/10/23. Market Monday: The Week Ahead. Utilities: Down

My Prediction

I show the Dow utilities on the daily chart.

One pattern jumps out and that’s the triple bottom, which I highlight on the chart as 1, 2, and 3. The pattern confirms as a valid chart pattern when the index closes above the highest
peak between the three bottoms. That’s the horizontal red line.

I also drew a blue trendline connecting the recent chart peaks and today’s price, at A.

If I were wanting to buy the index (an ETF based on it, really), I’d wait. I’ve seen these trendlines put up overhead resistance that a stock struggles to break though. I don’t know if that’s the case with
an index, but I wouldn’t take the chance.

So I’m looking for the utility index to drop this week.

A Brief Look Back

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

Monday: Up 194.55 points.

Tuesday: Down 37.83 points.

Wednesday: Up 323.35 points.

Thursday: Up 141.43 points.

Friday: Up 415.12 points.

For the Week…

The Dow industrials were up 1247.76 points or 3.9%.

The Nasdaq composite was up 264 points or 2.2%.

The S&P 500 index was up 134.03 points or 3.4%.

Year to Date…

Dow Industrials

     2.5% down from the high of 34,342.32 on 01/13/2023.

     6.5% up from the low of 31,429.82 on 03/15/2023.

Nasdaq

     1.5% down from the high of 12,269.55 on 02/02/2023.

     17.8% up from the low of 10,265.04 on 01/06/2023.

S&P 500

     2.2% down from the high of 4,195.44 on 02/02/2023.

     8.2% up from the low of 3,794.33 on 01/03/2023.

Options Expiration

No options expire this week.

Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, “Take a
two-dimensional approach.” He offers these tips.

• Seekinger doesn’t look at the range of S2 to R2 as support and resistance levels. Rather, he considers them oversold (S) and overbought (R) areas.
• S2 to R2 range of values across daily, weekly, and monthly periods: If two values are close together then they lend more significance to the area.
• If the market trends on day 1, the odds rise tremendously that the market will be range bound between daily S1 and daily R1 the next day.
• In a quiet market when traders are waiting for an important earnings announcement or economic report, look for daily R1 and S1 levels to hold and for the market to return to the daily pivot.
• A move outside of daily R1 or S1 usually does not mean a breakout.
• The odds suggest that the entire week’s price action will remain between weekly R2 and S2.
• Avoid going long when the market moves above weekly R2 (it’s overbought) and avoid going short when price moves below weekly S2 (oversold).
• Consider going short at weekly R1 or long at weekly S1 with a profit objective of the weekly pivot.
• Consider going long at weekly S2 or short at weekly R2 with a profit objective of weekly S1 or R1, respectively.

Here are the formulas:

Pivot point: P = (H + L + C)/3

First resistance level: R1 = (2 * P) – L

First support level: S1 = (2 * P) – H)

Second resistance level: R2 = P + (R1 – S1)

Second support level: S2 = P – (R1 – S1)

H = high price , L=low price, C=closing price

Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season will be starting in about 7 days.

Here’s a symbol list of 112 chart and candlestick patterns (13 “investment grade” candle patterns) found in today’s securities using my version of Patternz:
DDD, AXDX, ALB, AIG, ACGL, ADM, ARW, BECN, BBY, BOOT, BSX, BR, BRKR, BLDR, CPB, CF, ED, CRH, CCRN, DHR, XRAY, DFS, BOOM, EXP, EL, EZPW, FDX, GPS, GMS, GES, HAYN, HL, HP, HURC, IDXX, INFN, TILE, IPI, INTU, NVTA, LNC, MHO, MCHX, MTRX, MDC, META, MSFT, MLKN, MUR, ^IXIC, NFG, NJR, NI, JWN, ORI, OMC, PATK, PTEN, PCG, POR, PG, RNG, RES, ^GSPC, SBH, SHW, SUM, TPR, TDOC, TFX, TPX, TEVA, TMO, TKR, UHAL, VRTX, WAT, WEX, WMB, WSC, WWD, IHE, IDU, ICF, IGE, IEO, EWK, EWQ, EWI, EWJ, EWS, EWP, EWL, EWU, QLD, PXJ, IXC, SSO, SPY, MGK. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

The below industries were the best (rank 1) or worst performing of those I follow.

— Thomas Bulkowski

Thursday 4/6/23. Bitcoin Review

Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:

     The prediction of the Nasdaq closing higher has been right 255/450 or 56.7% of the time.

     The prediction of the Nasdaq closing lower has been right 71/146 or 48.6% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

$ $ $

I show a picture of bitcoin (BTC-USD) on the daily scale.

On the chart two patterns and one anomaly appear. The first, A, caught my attention because I’m struggling with Patternz to teach it how to find flags. This isn’t a flag but a cousin: pennant. A flag has a retrace that looks
like two parallel lines. Pennants are everything else, really, except that both need to be at the end of a flagpole. The flagpole to his one began min mid January. That’s when price went vertical.

At B, we see a nicely formed broadening top. Those patterns have peaks which follow an upward trend and valleys which follow a downward trend, so that the two trendlines highlighting those trends diverge.

I once read somewhere that a congestion region that appears near the breakout suggests a strong move. I was not able to prove that theory worked. I think C is an example of the type of congestion region
they were talking about although this one is long.

$ $ $

Here’s a symbol list of 202 chart and candlestick patterns (13 “investment grade” candle patterns) found in today’s securities using my version of Patternz:
DDD, ANF, ACN, AMD, AJRD, AES, ALB, ALKS, ALL, AMZN, AEE, AEP, ABC, AME, AMGN, APH, APA, AMAT, AWI, ATO, ADSK, AXS, BMI, BECN, BBY, BIG, BKH, BKNG, BOOT, CPB, CNP, CF, CHKP, CHS, CLF, CTSH, ED, CXW, COTY, CRH, DHR, DDS, ^DJU, D, DUK, EXP, EME, EPAM, EL, EZPW, FDS, FAST, FDX, FIS, FE, FORM, GPS, GE, GNW, GS, GES, THG, HLIT, HSC, HAYN, HL, HELE, HSY, HNI, HOV, HUBG, IDA, ITW, IBP, IIIN, TILE, NVTA, JBLU, JNJ, KMT, KEYS, KBAL, KLAC, LZB, LH, LRCX, LAMR, LLY, RAMP, MHO, MRO, MTRX, MRK, MCO, MS, NBR, ^IXIC, NTAP, NJR, NWL, NEU, NEE, NI, JWN, NOC, NOVT, NVDA, OLN, ASGN, PKG, PATK, PKI, PFE, PNW, PLXS, POR, PPL, PG, PGR, RL, RGA, RNG, ROK, RES, ^GSPC, SAIA, SCHW, SEE, SRE, SO, SR, SNPS, TRGP, TECH, TER, TXN, TXT, RIG, UHAL, UGI, UPS, UNH, VRSN, VRTX, WMT, WSO, WEX, WSM, WOLF, WWW, WDAY, XEL, IYM, IYC, ITB, IEZ, IHE, IDU, FTEC, FXL, BOTZ, SOXX, EWH, EWS, EWL, PBE, ROBO, ILF, SSO, XLF, XHB, XLI, XRT, SPY, XAR, XLK, XLU, SMH, VIS. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day’s high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences),
the area might act as support or resistance.

— Thomas Bulkowski

Wednesday 4/5/23. 2023 Forecast Update

Here’s the updated 2023 forecast, presented in slider format.

$ $ $

Based on sector performance from Fidelity, the best performing sectors for year-to-date performance as of 4/3/2023 were…
(The numbering is how they ranked a month ago.)

2. Information technology (21%)

3. Communication services (21%)

1. Consumer discretionary (15%)

4. Materials (4%)

7. Industrials (3%)

8. Consumer staples (1%)

6. Real estate (0%)

9. Energy (-1%)

10. Health care (-4%)

11. Utilities (-5%)

5. Financials (-6%)

The folks at two firms polled by Fidelity weigh the sectors in this order, as of 3/31/23.

1. Information technology (IT)

2. Health care

3. Financials

4. Consumer discretionary

5. Industrials

6. Communication services

7. Consumer staples

8. Energy

9. Utilities

10. Materials

11. Real estate

Here’s how they rank the industries, but only the top 10 appear. One-year change, as of 4/3/23. The numbering is how they ranked a month ago.

1. Construction and engineering (+26%)

3. Oil, gas and consumable fuels (+14%)

6. Distributors (+12%)

New. Household durables (+10%)

2. Trading companies and distributors (+8%)

8. Biotechnology (+8%)

7. Machinery (+7%)

9. Commercial services and supplies (+7%)

New. Specialty retail (+6%)

4. Energy equipment and services (+4%)

$ $ $

Here’s a symbol list of 265 chart and candlestick patterns (13 “investment grade” candle patterns) found in today’s securities using my version of Patternz:
DDD, MMM, ABT, ANF, ABM, AYI, AFL, ALB, AA, AFG, AMWD, AMN, APA, AMAT, ACGL, AWI, ARW, ADSK, ADP, AVY, AXS, BMI, BCPC, BZH, BBY, BKNG, BRC, BCO, BMY, BG, CALM, CPB, CE, CX, CF, CHKP, CVX, CHS, CINF, CLNE, CNA, CTSH, CL, CMCO, CMTL, ED, CXW, COTY, CR, CCRN, CCK, CW, DHR, FANG, DDS, DOV, BOOM, EXP, ECL, EME, EOG, EPAM, EL, EVH, FDS, FAST, FDX, FISV, FIVN, FLEX, FORM, FDP, FRD, GPS, GE, GPN, GMS, GS, GES, THG, HSC, HIG, HAYN, HL, HELE, HP, HNI, HOLX, HOV, HURC, IEX, ITW, NSP, IBP, IIIN, INTC, TILE, NVTA, JBLU, KALU, KELYA, KMT, KEYS, KBAL, KLAC, LZB, LAMR, LEN, L, LPLA, MHO, MTSI, MGY, MAN, MRO, MCHX, MRTN, MLM, MAS, MTDR, MTRX, MSFT, MLKN, MCO, MUR, NBR, NTAP, NJR, NWL, NKE, JWN, NVDA, ASGN, OXM, PDCO, PAYX, PETS, PFG, PG, DGX, RL, RJF, RTX, RGS, RGA, RNG, ROK, ROP, RES, SAIA, SLB, NOW, SLGN, SKYW, SCCO, SXI, SSYS, SUM, SNPS, TDY, TPX, TER, TXT, RIG, TRV, TG, TREX, UHAL, SLCA, UPS, UNM, VRSN, VRTX, WRB, WSO, WEX, WSM, WSC, WWW, WDAY, IYM, IYC, IYE, ITB, IEZ, IHE, IDU, FTEC, FXL, BOTZ, IYH, IGE, IEO, EWK, EWG, EWI, EWS, EZA, EWP, EWD, PPA, PBE, ROBO, IXC, ILF, SSO, XLE, XLF, XHB, XLI, XRT, SPY, XAR, XLK, XLU, VIS, VAW. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

— Thomas Bulkowski

Tuesday 4/4/23. Slider Trading Quiz!

Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:

     The prediction of the Dow closing higher has been right 261/469 or 55.7% of the time.

     The prediction of the Dow closing lower has been right 50/107 or 46.7% of the time.

$ $ $

I show another slider trading quiz featuring WM Wrigley: WWY stock.

$ $ $

Here’s a symbol list of 188 chart and candlestick patterns (13 “investment grade” candle patterns) found in today’s securities using my version of Patternz:
ACIW, AJRD, ALB, AA, ALL, AFG, APA, APOG, ACGL, ADM, AIZ, AVNT, BAX, BBBY, BA, BCO, BLDR, CBT, CACI, CAL, CPB, CX, CNC, CVX, CHS, CINF, CNA, CNO, CAG, COP, CCRN, XRAY, DVN, FANG, D, DOV, DRQ, ELV, EOG, EQT, RE, EVH, XOM, FICO, FDX, FLS, GPS, IT, GFS, GL, GMS, GS, GFF, HIG, HQY, HL, HP, DHI, HOV, HWM, HUM, ILMN, IBP, IIIN, IBKR, TILE, KALU, LAMR, LEG, LEN, L, LOW, LPLA, MGY, MRO, MCHX, MLM, MTDR, MRCY, MGEE, MU, MUR, MYGN, NBR, NOV, NI, NOC, OXY, OLN, PTEN, PXD, PPG, PFG, PGR, PHM, RRC, RJF, RTX, RGS, RGA, ROK, SAIA, SBH, SLB, STR, SKYW, SCCO, SR, SUM, SRDX, TRGP, TPX, TEVA, TXT, RIG, TRV, SLCA, UIS, UNM, VECO, WLK, WSC, WWW, IYE, IEZ, IHE, DDM, IHF, IAT, SLV, IGE, IEO, EWA, EWO, EWK, EWC, ECH, EEM, EWG, EWH, EIS, EWI, EWM, EWW, EPP, EWS, TUR, EWU, PXJ, IEV, IXC, XLE, GLD, USO. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day’s high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences),
the area might act as support or resistance.

— Thomas Bulkowski

Monday 4/3/23. Market Monday: The Week Ahead (Down)

My Prediction

This is a picture of the S&P 500 index on the daily scale.

Not much is happening except for the potential drop. That’s highlighted by a chart pattern called a head-and-shoulders top. I highlight the left shoulder (LS), a potential
right shoulder (RS?) and a head straddling the two shoulders.

Before the squiggles can become a valid head-and-shoulders top, the index has to close below the red neckline. If that were to happen, it would represent a significant drop and that’s just a start.

Worst case, the index could drop below the red line by the height of the pattern, and perhaps more.

Of course, none of this might happen. The index could continue rising but it would have to push through overhead resistance and it has already made a good move upward. That sets the stage for a downward retrace
in my opinion.

A Brief Look Back

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

Monday: Up 194.55 points.

Tuesday: Down 37.83 points.

Wednesday: Up 323.35 points.

Thursday: Up 141.43 points.

Friday: Up 415.12 points.

For the Week…

The Dow industrials were up 1036.62 points or 3.2%.

The Nasdaq composite was up 397.95 points or 3.4%.

The S&P 500 index was up 138.32 points or 3.5%.

Year to Date…

Dow Industrials

     3.1% down from the high of 34,342.32 on 01/13/2023.

     5.9% up from the low of 31,429.82 on 03/15/2023.

Nasdaq

     0.4% down from the high of 12,269.55 on 02/02/2023.

     19.1% up from the low of 10,265.04 on 01/06/2023.

S&P 500

     2.1% down from the high of 4,195.44 on 02/02/2023.

     8.3% up from the low of 3,794.33 on 01/03/2023.

Options Expiration

No options expire this week.

Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, “Take a
two-dimensional approach.” He offers these tips.

• Seekinger doesn’t look at the range of S2 to R2 as support and resistance levels. Rather, he considers them oversold (S) and overbought (R) areas.
• S2 to R2 range of values across daily, weekly, and monthly periods: If two values are close together then they lend more significance to the area.
• If the market trends on day 1, the odds rise tremendously that the market will be range bound between daily S1 and daily R1 the next day.
• In a quiet market when traders are waiting for an important earnings announcement or economic report, look for daily R1 and S1 levels to hold and for the market to return to the daily pivot.
• A move outside of daily R1 or S1 usually does not mean a breakout.
• The odds suggest that the entire week’s price action will remain between weekly R2 and S2.
• Avoid going long when the market moves above weekly R2 (it’s overbought) and avoid going short when price moves below weekly S2 (oversold).
• Consider going short at weekly R1 or long at weekly S1 with a profit objective of the weekly pivot.
• Consider going long at weekly S2 or short at weekly R2 with a profit objective of weekly S1 or R1, respectively.

Here are the formulas:

Pivot point: P = (H + L + C)/3

First resistance level: R1 = (2 * P) – L

First support level: S1 = (2 * P) – H)

Second resistance level: R2 = P + (R1 – S1)

Second support level: S2 = P – (R1 – S1)

H = high price , L=low price, C=closing price

Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season is over.

Here’s a symbol list of 182 chart and candlestick patterns (13 “investment grade” candle patterns) found in today’s securities using my version of Patternz:
ABT, AXDX, AEIS, AMD, AJRD, ALB, ALKS, AFG, AIG, APH, APA, APOG, ACGL, AIZ, AVNT, BZH, BBBY, BIO, BSX, BCO, BR, CBT, CX, CNC, CHS, CHD, CINF, CNA, CNO, ED, COP, CRH, CROX, XRAY, DSGR, DOV, EOG, EPAM, RE, EXPD, XOM, FICO, FLEX, FLS, FTV, GME, IT, GFS, GL, GMS, GS, GFF, THG, HIG, HQY, HL, HSII, HD, HOV, HUM, ILMN, INFN, IBP, IIIN, IBKR, TILE, IPG, KALU, KMB, KLIC, LH, LAMR, LEG, L, LPLA, LXU, MGY, MRO, MCHX, MLM, MRCY, MSFT, MUR, NEU, NOC, NUS, OLN, OMC, OUT, OMI, PKG, PKE, PEN, PXD, PFG, PG, PGR, PSTG, DGX, RRC, RJF, RGS, RGA, ROK, SBH, SCI, SHOP, STR, SKYW, SCCO, SWN, SR, SRDX, TRGP, TDY, TPX, TZOO, TG, SLCA, UIS, UNM, VLO, VRSN, WAT, WERN, WLK, WWD, ZBRA, IYM, IYK, IYC, IHE, DDM, ICF, IAT, SLV, IEO, IHI, EWA, EWK, ECH, EIS, EWI, EWJ, EWW, EWY, EWP, EWD, EWL, PPA, PEJ, PJP, IEV, SSO, MXI, XLP, XLE, XLV, SPY, USO, VHT, VIS, MGK. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

The below industries were the best (rank 1) or worst performing of those I follow.

— Thomas Bulkowski