As of 01/28/2022 Indus: 34,725 +564.69 +1.7% Trans: 15,049 +238.69 +1.6% Utils: 941 +10.78 +1.2% Nasdaq: 13,771 +417.79 +3.1% S&P 500: 4,432 +105.34 +2.4% |
YTD -4.4% -8.7% -4.1% -12.0% -7.0% |
36,000 or 32,500 by 02/15/2022
16,500 or 14,400 by 02/15/2022
970 or 890 by 02/15/2022
15,000 or 12,700 by 02/15/2022
4,700 or 4,100 by 02/15/2022
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As of 01/28/2022 Indus: 34,725 +564.69 +1.7% Trans: 15,049 +238.69 +1.6% Utils: 941 +10.78 +1.2% Nasdaq: 13,771 +417.79 +3.1% S&P 500: 4,432 +105.34 +2.4% |
YTD -4.4% -8.7% -4.1% -12.0% -7.0% |
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36,000 or 32,500 by 02/15/2022
16,500 or 14,400 by 02/15/2022
970 or 890 by 02/15/2022
15,000 or 12,700 by 02/15/2022
4,700 or 4,100 by 02/15/2022
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Monday 1/31/22. Market Monday: The Week Ahead
My Prediction
I show the Nasdaq composite on the daily scale.
At AB, there’s a small double bottom which confirms as a valid pattern when the index closes above the top of the pattern. I show that as line C.
In this case, the upward move faltered and the index tumbled. The double bottom failed.
More recently, the index has found a bottom — I think. My expectation and hope is that the index will recover by following the blue line. It won’t be as steep as the line suggests, but
maybe I’ve gotten the direction right (upward).
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I finished converting my website to a secure site: https versus http. If you have links to the website with only http:, change it to https: and you’ll get in faster (but I doubt you’ll notice
the difference).
If you find any broken links or pages which don’t load properly, please let me know. Email me at
A Brief Look Back
The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.
Monday: Up 99.13 points.
Tuesday: Down 66.77 points.
Wednesday: Down 129.64 points.
Thursday: Down 7.31 points.
Friday: Up 564.69 points.
For the Week…
The Dow industrials were up 460.1 points or 1.3%.
The Nasdaq composite was up 1.65 points or 0.0%.
The S&P 500 index was up 33.91 points or 0.8%.
Year to Date…
Dow Industrials
6.0% down from the high of 36,952.65 on 01/05/2022.
4.8% up from the low of 33,150.33 on 01/24/2022.
Nasdaq
13.1% down from the high of 15,852.14 on 01/04/2022.
5.2% up from the low of 13,094.65 on 01/24/2022.
S&P 500
8.0% down from the high of 4,818.62 on 01/04/2022.
5.0% up from the low of 4,222.62 on 01/24/2022.
Options Expiration
No options expire this week.
Swing Traders: Pivot Points
The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, “Take a
two-dimensional approach.” He offers these tips.
Index | S2 | S1 | Pivot | R1 | R2 |
Dow Industrials (^DJI): Daily | 33,497 | 34,111 | 34,422 | 35,036 | 35,346 |
Weekly | 32,565 | 33,645 | 34,230 | 35,311 | 35,896 |
Monthly | 31,140 | 32,933 | 34,943 | 36,735 | 38,745 |
S&P500 (^GSPC): Daily | 4,245 | 4,339 | 4,386 | 4,479 | 4,526 |
Weekly | 4,139 | 4,285 | 4,369 | 4,516 | 4,600 |
Monthly | 3,895 | 4,163 | 4,491 | 4,759 | 5,087 |
Nasdaq (^IXIC): Daily | 13,058 | 13,414 | 13,593 | 13,949 | 14,128 |
Weekly | 12,715 | 13,243 | 13,623 | 14,151 | 14,531 |
Monthly | 11,449 | 12,610 | 14,256 | 15,416 | 17,062 |
- Seekinger doesn’t look at the range of S2 to R2 as support and resistance levels. Rather, he considers them oversold (S) and overbought (R) areas.
- S2 to R2 range of values across daily, weekly, and monthly periods: If two values are close together then they lend more significance to the area.
- If the market trends on day 1, the odds rise tremendously that the market will be range bound between daily S1 and daily R1 the next day.
- In a quiet market when traders are waiting for an important earnings announcement or economic report, look for daily R1 and S1 levels to hold and for the market to return to the daily pivot.
- A move outside of daily R1 or S1 usually does not mean a breakout.
- The odds suggest that the entire week’s price action will remain between weekly R2 and S2.
- Avoid going long when the market moves above weekly R2 (it’s overbought) and avoid going short when price moves below weekly S2 (oversold).
- Consider going short at weekly R1 or long at weekly S1 with a profit objective of the weekly pivot.
- Consider going long at weekly S2 or short at weekly R2 with a profit objective of weekly S1 or R1, respectively.
Here are the formulas:
Pivot point: P = (H + L + C)/3
First resistance level: R1 = (2 * P) – L
First support level: S1 = (2 * P) – H)
Second resistance level: R2 = P + (R1 – S1)
Second support level: S2 = P – (R1 – S1)
H = high price , L=low price, C=closing price
Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries
Earnings season is either underway or should be starting soon. The sessions could be more volatile.
Here’s a symbol list of 94 chart and candlestick patterns (13 “investment grade” candle patterns) found in today’s securities using my version of Patternz:
ACIW, AEL, AXP, AMN, APOG, AAPL, ATR, ARW, AVNT, AVA, BECN, BBBY, BERY, BIO, BOOT, BAH, EPAY, BLDR, BG, CX, CNP, CENX, CTXS, COTY, CCRN, CSGS, DECK, D, DOV, FICO, FAST, FE, FLS, FORM, FCX, GNW, THG, HE, HL, NSP, IVC, KALU, KBH, KSS, LEG, MAN, MRK, MS, MOS, MYGN, NI, OGE, OMI, OXM, PCG, PICO, PNW, RL, SCHW, SRE, NOW, SKX, SCCO, TJX, SLCA, VRSN, VRTX, V, WLK, WEX, XEL, IAI, IHE, FXI, SOXX, SLV, EWK, EWH, EWM, EPP, TUR, DBA, XLP, XLV, XLK, XLU, UNG. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).
For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.
The below industries were the best (rank 1) or worst performing of those I follow.
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— Thomas Bulkowski
Friday 1/28/22. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.
Here’s a symbol list of 71 chart and candlestick patterns (13 “investment grade” candle patterns) found in today’s securities using my version of Patternz:
ADTN, AEL, ABC, ADM, AIZ, ADP, BAX, BECN, BIG, CACI, CAL, CLS, CONN, COST, CTS, DHR, EIX, EZPW, FAST, FORM, FCX, GME, GNW, GILD, HBI, HQY, HTLD, HL, HSII, HSIC, HNI, INCY, NSP, INTC, IPG, IVC, JBLU, KALU, KBH, KSS, LH, LAWS, LDOS, M, MOS, NFLX, OMC, PRFT, PCG, PEG, PHM, RCKY, SLB, SCHW, SAIC, NOW, SCCO, SR, TPX, TER, SLCA, WLK, WSM, WWW, FXI, EWJ, EPP, EWY, GLD, XLU. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).
For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.
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You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.
The following patterns were found manually, not using Patternz. Mr. Bulkowski has excluded any securities he owns from appearing in the list. However, he may add any of the securities listed to his portfolio at any time, just as you can.
In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.
For details about the chart patterns, click here.
— Thomas Bulkowski
Symbol | Chart Pattern | Bullish Bearish |
Start | End | Industry |
ANF | Double Bottom, Adam and Adam | 01/10/2022 | 01/21/2022 | Apparel | |
AMAT | Broadening top, right-angled and ascending | 11/26/2021 | 01/14/2022 | Semiconductor Cap Equip. | |
ATO | Double Top, Eve and Adam | 01/05/2022 | 01/19/2022 | Natural Gas (Diversified) | |
BLL | Pipe top | 12/27/2021 | 01/03/2022 | Packaging and Container | |
BBW | Double Top, Eve and Eve | 12/01/2021 | 01/11/2022 | Retail (Special Lines) | |
CACI | Double Top, Adam and Eve | 01/05/2022 | 01/18/2022 | IT Services | |
CE | Double Top, Adam and Adam | 01/05/2022 | 01/13/2022 | Chemical (Basic) | |
CLS | Pipe top | 01/03/2022 | 01/10/2022 | Electronics | |
CX | Double Top, Eve and Eve | 01/05/2022 | 01/14/2022 | Cement and Aggregates | |
CNP | Broadening top, right-angled and descending | 01/05/2022 | 01/27/2022 | Electric Utility (Central) | |
CL | Double Top, Eve and Eve | 01/05/2022 | 01/19/2022 | Household Products | |
CR | Double Top, Eve and Eve | 01/05/2022 | 01/13/2022 | Diversified Co. | |
CCRN | Triple top | 11/04/2021 | 12/28/2021 | Human Resources | |
CTS | Double Top, Eve and Eve | 11/16/2021 | 01/04/2022 | Electronics | |
WIRE | Double Top, Eve and Eve | 11/23/2021 | 12/28/2021 | Metals and Mining (Div.) | |
EPAM | Three Falling Peaks | 11/05/2021 | 12/27/2021 | IT Services | |
FICO | Broadening top | 12/30/2021 | 01/26/2022 | IT Services | |
FCX | Pipe top | 01/10/2022 | 01/18/2022 | Metals and Mining (Div.) | |
HBI | Head-and-shoulders bottom | 12/13/2021 | 12/31/2021 | Apparel | |
HSC | Double Top, Eve and Eve | 12/29/2021 | 01/14/2022 | Diversified Co. | |
KLIC | Pipe top | 12/06/2021 | 12/13/2021 | Semiconductor Cap Equip. | |
LRCX | Triple top | 12/09/2021 | 01/13/2022 | Semiconductor Cap Equip. | |
LAMR | Double Top, Eve and Eve | 11/05/2021 | 01/04/2022 | Advertising | |
RAMP | Double Top, Adam and Adam | 12/08/2021 | 01/04/2022 | Computer Software and Svcs | |
MNDT | Head-and-shoulders bottom | 11/23/2021 | 12/15/2021 | Computer Software and Svcs | |
MAS | Broadening top | 11/16/2021 | 01/04/2022 | Building Materials | |
NFLX | Dead-cat bounce | 01/21/2022 | 01/21/2022 | Internet | |
PKG | Ugly double bottom | 12/20/2021 | 01/24/2022 | Packaging and Container | |
PKE | Rectangle bottom | 11/26/2021 | 01/27/2022 | Chemical (Specialty) | |
PATK | Three Falling Peaks | 10/04/2021 | 01/05/2022 | Retail Building Supply | |
PHM | Double Top, Eve and Adam | 12/30/2021 | 01/13/2022 | Homebuilding | |
RL | Three Falling Peaks | 11/01/2021 | 01/05/2022 | Apparel | |
RHI | Broadening top | 12/29/2021 | 01/14/2022 | Human Resources | |
SAIC | Ugly double bottom | 12/20/2021 | 01/10/2022 | IT Services | |
SWN | Horn top | 12/27/2021 | 01/10/2022 | Natural Gas (Diversified) | |
TECH | Three Falling Peaks | 09/23/2021 | 12/31/2021 | Biotechnology | |
TFX | Triple top | 01/05/2022 | 01/20/2022 | Diversified Co. | |
TER | Dead-cat bounce | 01/27/2022 | 01/27/2022 | Semiconductor Cap Equip. | |
VMC | Double Top, Adam and Eve | 11/09/2021 | 01/04/2022 | Cement and Aggregates | |
WERN | Pipe top | 12/27/2021 | 01/03/2022 | Trucking/Transp. Leasing | |
WLK | Pipe top | 01/10/2022 | 01/18/2022 | Chemical (Basic) |
Thursday 1/27/22. Intraday Market Direction: Nasdaq
Average gain was 0.8% on 395 occasions.
Average loss was -0.9% on 298 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 57.0% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 234/409 or 57.2% of the time.
The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 60/127 or 47.2% of the time.
Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.
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I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5-minute scale.
I like trendlines because they describe how price has moved and give hints of what will happen.
This chart is an example of that idea. The blue line shows the longer-term trend (although on this scale, it’s very short term). The index tried to pierce it at point A, but failed to do so.
The red line shows a recovery. Everything was fine until the FED made their announcement. My view is that the market would shrug off their words and climb. Instead, the index dropped.
I still believe their worry is overblown, so I’m still thinking that this is a buying opportunity (I bought 2 securities and may buy another tomorrow). I expect a recovery.
The above probabilities (57% close higher) support that belief.
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Here’s a symbol list of 160 chart and candlestick patterns (13 “investment grade” candle patterns) found in today’s securities using my version of Patternz:
MMM, ABT, ACN, ACIW, AYI, APD, DOX, AEE, AEL, AFG, APOG, AWI, ARW, ASH, ADP, AVNT, BZH, BERY, BIG, BIO, BIIB, BMRN, BA, CBT, CAL, CPB, CNC, CENX, CHS, CSCO, CLF, CTSH, CL, CMCO, CONN, GLW, CSGS, DECK, ^DJU, ^DJI, BOOM, EZPW, FFIV, FAST, FIS, FCX, GE, GPRO, GES, HBI, HE, HTLD, HL, HSII, HNI, HD, HON, DHI, NSP, ITGR, IPAR, TILE, IVC, JNJ, KALU, KBH, KBAL, KSS, LHX, LZB, LAMR, LEG, MHO, M, MAN, MCHX, MAS, FB, MGEE, MOS, NTAP, NEU, NKE, OMC, OUT, OXM, PAYX, PRFT, PFE, PCG, PNW, POR, PPL, PHM, KWR, RL, RCKY, ROST, SMG, SCCO, SCS, SRDX, TPR, TDOC, TPX, TKR, TOL, SLCA, UPS, VLO, WLK, WMB, WSM, WWW, ITA, IYM, FXI, BOTZ, ICF, IYH, IYZ, ECH, EEM, EWJ, EPP, EWS, EZA, EWY, EWT, THD, TUR, PPA, PBE, XLY, XLP, XLI, XLB, XRT, XAR, UNG, USO, VHT, VIS, VAW. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).
For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.
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The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day’s high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences),
the area might act as support or resistance.
— Thomas Bulkowski
© 2022 ThePatternSite.com Metric | Value | Diff | Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? |
Monthly S2 | 12,265.38 | ||
Monthly S1 | 12,903.75 | 638.37 | |
Daily S2 | 13,035.19 | 131.44 | |
Weekly S2 | 13,039.33 | 4.14 | Yes! The Weekly S2 is close to the Daily S2. |
Daily S1 | 13,288.66 | 249.32 | |
Weekly S1 | 13,290.73 | 2.07 | Yes! The Weekly S1 is close to the Daily S1. |
Low | 13,392.19 | 101.46 | |
Close | 13,542.12 | 149.93 | |
61.8% Down from Intraday High | 13,625.39 | 83.27 | |
Daily Pivot | 13,645.65 | 20.27 | Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 61.8% Down from Intraday High. |
50% Down from Intraday High | 13,697.42 | 51.77 | Yes! The 50% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot. |
38.2% Down from Intraday High | 13,769.45 | 72.03 | |
Open | 13,871.77 | 102.32 | |
Daily R1 | 13,899.12 | 27.35 | Yes! The Daily R1 is close to the Open. |
High | 14,002.65 | 103.53 | |
Weekly Pivot | 14,015.63 | 12.98 | Yes! The Weekly Pivot is close to the High. |
Daily R2 | 14,256.11 | 240.48 | |
Weekly R1 | 14,267.03 | 10.91 | Yes! The Weekly R1 is close to the Daily R2. |
Monthly Pivot | 14,402.61 | 135.58 | |
Weekly R2 | 14,991.93 | 589.32 | |
Monthly R1 | 15,040.98 | 49.05 | Yes! The Monthly R1 is close to the Weekly R2. |
Monthly R2 | 16,539.84 | 1,498.86 |
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