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Market Monday: The Week Ahead….

Blog: April 2022

Bulkowski's Blog: ThePatternSite.com

As of 04/06/2022

  Indus: 34,497 -144.67 -0.4%  

  Trans: 14,563 -502.88 -3.3%  

  Utils: 1,071 +20.35 +1.9%  

  Nasdaq: 13,889 -315.35 -2.2%  

  S&P 500: 4,481 -43.97 -1.0%  

YTD

-5.1%  

-11.6%  

 +9.2%  

-11.2%  

-6.0%  

  Up arrow35,900 or 33,700 by 04/15/2022
  Up arrow16,000 or 13,900 by 04/15/2022
  Up arrow1,100 or 1,000 by 04/15/2022
  Up arrow14,800 or 13,400 by 04/15/2022
  Up arrow4,700 or 4,400 by 04/15/2022

As of 04/06/2022

  Indus: 34,497 -144.67 -0.4%  

  Trans: 14,563 -502.88 -3.3%  

  Utils: 1,071 +20.35 +1.9%  

  Nasdaq: 13,889 -315.35 -2.2%  

  S&P 500: 4,481 -43.97 -1.0%  

YTD

-5.1%  

-11.6%  

 +9.2%  

-11.2%  

-6.0%  

  Up arrow35,900 or 33,700 by 04/15/2022
  Up arrow16,000 or 13,900 by 04/15/2022
  Up arrow1,100 or 1,000 by 04/15/2022
  Up arrow14,800 or 13,400 by 04/15/2022
  Up arrow4,700 or 4,400 by 04/15/2022

 


Thursday 4/7/22. Intraday Market Direction: Nasdaq

The index dropped by -2.2% or -315.35 points. Since 02/05/1971 the index made 53 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day’s…

     Average gain was 1.5% on 24 occasions.

     Average loss was -1.7% on 29 occasions.

Expect the index to close lower 54.7% of the time.

Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:

     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 236/416 or 56.7% of the time.

     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 62/130 or 47.7% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5 minute scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5-minute scale.

The blue lines highlight a chart pattern called a symmetrical triangle. The index remains within the two blue lines…until it doesn’t. When it breaks through, that’s
the breakout. We see the index near the bottom blue line (B) before it gapped lower in a breakout.

The red pattern is a diamond bottom. A well-behaved diamond would see price rise back up to A, reaching the bottom of the triangle (if you were to extend the blue line).

Of course, that might not happen. We could see a partial retrace before the index plummets again.

$ $ $

Here’s a symbol list of 184 chart and candlestick patterns (13 “investment grade” candle patterns) found in today’s securities using my version of Patternz:
ADBE, AEIS, AMD, AES, ATSG, ALKS, AMED, AEP, AEL, AMGN, APH, AON, AMAT, ARCB, AWI, ARW, ASH, AVNT, BSET, BAX, BZH, BIG, BIO, BMRN, BA, BKNG, BAH, BFH, BLDR, CBT, CACI, CDNS, CE, CLS, CX, CVX, CNA, CGNX, CMCO, GLW, COTY, CRH, CSGS, CTS, DDS, ^DJT, BOOM, EMN, WIRE, EFX, EL, EXC, EZPW, FICO, FDX, FE, FLEX, FORM, GPS, GE, GPN, GL, GS, GFF, HLIT, HL, HELE, HNI, DHI, HOV, IEX, ILMN, INCY, INFN, IBP, IIIN, INTC, IPAR, IBKR, IPG, IPI, IVC, JBLU, KBH, KSS, LHX, LEN, MHO, MTSI, MLM, MDC, MGEE, MLKN, MS, NCR, NTGR, NTAP, NWL, NXGN, NKE, NWPX, NVDA, OMC, ASGN, PDCO, PAYX, PRFT, PETS, PHM, QCOM, RL, RMBS, REV, RHI, ROK, RCKY, SAIA, SMG, SIGI, SMTC, NOW, SHW, SUM, TPR, TDOC, TEVA, TMO, TKR, TOL, UPS, VMI, VRSN, VC, VMC, WLK, WEX, IAI, IYK, ITB, FDN, FXL, BOTZ, IHF, IAT, SOXX, IYF, IHI, EWO, EWK, EWQ, EWG, EWI, EWJ, EWM, EZA, EWT, PJP, XLF, XHB, XLI, USO, SMH, VIS. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day’s high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences),
the area might act as support or resistance.

— Thomas Bulkowski

Top

© 2022 ThePatternSite.com    Metric   Value   Diff   Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2   11,605.47      
 Monthly S1   12,747.15   1,141.67   
 Daily S2   13,659.58   912.43   
 Weekly S2   13,666.79   7.21   Yes! The Weekly S2 is close to the Daily S2.
 Monthly Pivot   13,697.02   30.23   
 Daily S1   13,774.20   77.18   
 Weekly S1   13,777.81   3.61   Yes! The Weekly S1 is close to the Daily S1.
 Low   13,788.90   11.09   Yes! The Low is close to the Weekly S1.
 61.8% Down from Intraday High   13,882.08   93.18   
 Close   13,888.82   6.74   Yes! The Close is close to the 61.8% Down from Intraday High.
 Daily Pivot   13,903.52   14.70   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the Close.
 50% Down from Intraday High   13,910.87   7.35   Yes! The 50% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High   13,939.66   28.79   
 Open   14,002.58   62.92   
 Daily R1   14,018.14   15.56   Yes! The Daily R1 is close to the Open.
 High   14,032.84   14.70   Yes! The High is close to the Daily R1.
 Daily R2   14,147.46   114.62   
 Weekly Pivot   14,212.35   64.89   
 Weekly R1   14,323.37   111.01   
 Weekly R2   14,757.91   434.55   
 Monthly R1   14,838.70   80.78   
 Monthly R2   15,788.57   949.88   


Wednesday 4/6/22. A Look At Indicators

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

The CPI issued a bearish signal yesterday (Monday). That’s about a week after a minor high happened.

An upward move began near mid March and peaked at the start of April. From there, it has retraced and the red bar appeared (far right of the chart).

Notice the CPI line near the bottom of the chart. It started heading lower even as the index climbed. That bearish divergence signaled a possible trend change which we may be seeing now.

Picture of the percent down indicators

The red line is the percentage of stocks at least 20% below their 1-year high (plotted upside down). The blue line is the average percentage drop of stocks below their 1-year high (plotted upside down).

Shown as a red line on the above chart…

On Tuesday, 47% of stocks in my database are in bear market territory (down at least 20% from their 1-year high).

A week ago, it was 36%.

The fewest was 9% on 05/03/2021.

And the most was 54% on 03/07/2022.

Shown as a blue line on the above chart…

The 458 stocks in my database are down an average of 20% from their yearly high.

A week ago, the average was 17%.

The peak was 8% on 05/07/2021.

And the bottom was 23% on 03/14/2022.

Both the blue and red lines have turned down and the above numbers confirm this (as compared to a week ago).

As I’ve mentioned for months now, the two lines have trended lower since the left side of the chart.

Taken together, the two charts are bearish, so it looks to me as if the index will retrace the recent gains (say, about half of those gain since the mid-March low).

$ $ $

Here’s a symbol list of 127 chart and candlestick patterns (13 “investment grade” candle patterns) found in today’s securities using my version of Patternz:
ABT, ADBE, AEIS, AES, ATSG, ALB, AEO, AEP, AEL, AMGN, AMN, APH, ANIK, ARCB, AWI, AVA, BCPC, BSET, BZH, BRC, BFH, BMY, CBT, CDNS, CF, CHS, CNA, CGNX, CMCO, COTY, CRH, CCRN, CSGS, DDS, D, DOV, BOOM, EIX, FICO, FAST, FDX, FIS, FE, GIS, GILD, GPN, GL, GGG, HSC, HQY, HL, HSY, HNI, ILMN, IIIN, ITGR, INTC, IPAR, TILE, ISRG, IVC, KBH, KMT, KSS, LHX, LOW, LXU, MHO, MANH, MRTN, MTRX, MDC, MGEE, MLKN, MLI, JWN, NWPX, ASGN, OUT, PAYX, PRFT, PETS, PHM, QCOM, RMBS, RGS, REV, RNG, RCKY, SIGI, LUV, SWX, SCS, SUM, TGT, TDOC, TXN, TOL, UPS, VEEV, VRSN, VC, ZBRA, IEZ, FDN, FXL, BOTZ, EWO, EWK, EWC, EWG, EWJ, PEJ, PJP, GLD, UNG, USO. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

— Thomas Bulkowski

Top


Tuesday 4/5/22. Slider Trading Quiz! Merck (MRK)

The index climbed by 0.3% or 103.61 points. Since 10/01/1928 the index made 1128 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day’s…

     Average gain was 0.7% on 622 occasions.

     Average loss was -0.6% on 506 occasions.

Expect the index to close higher 55.1% of the time.

Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:

     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 243/432 or 56.3% of the time.

     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 45/94 or 47.9% of the time.

$ $ $

I show another slider trading quiz featuring Merck: MRK stock.

$ $ $

Here’s a symbol list of 76 chart and candlestick patterns (13 “investment grade” candle patterns) found in today’s securities using my version of Patternz:
AEL, AMGN, AMN, ANIK, ADM, AIZ, BRC, BG, CALM, CENX, CHKP, CHS, CNA, CMTL, CRH, CCRN, DVN, WIRE, EXC, EZPW, FDX, FISV, GL, HBI, HL, IBP, IIIN, ITGR, TILE, ISRG, JBLU, JNJ, KBAL, LZB, LH, LXU, MTRN, NFG, NTGR, NEU, JWN, OMCL, ASGN, OTEX, PKE, PETS, RES, SAIC, SIGI, LUV, SWX, SCS, TPR, TPX, TXN, VRSN, VC, WSM, IAI, IEZ, FXL, IYH, EWK, EWZ, EEM, TUR, IBB, PBE, PXJ, ROBO, UNG. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day’s high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences),
the area might act as support or resistance.

— Thomas Bulkowski

Top

© 2022 ThePatternSite.com    Metric   Value   Diff   Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2   31,497.43      
 Monthly S1   33,209.65   1,712.23   
 Weekly S2   34,110.12   900.47   
 Monthly Pivot   34,290.96   180.84   
 Daily S2   34,500.61   209.66   
 Weekly S1   34,516.00   15.39   Yes! The Weekly S1 is close to the Daily S2.
 Low   34,615.38   99.38   
 Daily S1   34,711.25   95.87   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High   34,739.68   28.44   Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily S1.
 50% Down from Intraday High   34,778.08   38.39   
 Open   34,799.98   21.90   Yes! The Open is close to the 50% Down from Intraday High.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High   34,816.48   16.50   Yes! The 38.2% Down from Intraday High is close to the Open.
 Daily Pivot   34,826.01   9.54   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High.
 Close   34,921.88   95.87   
 High   34,940.78   18.90   Yes! The High is close to the Close.
 Weekly Pivot   34,944.13   3.35   Yes! The Weekly Pivot is close to the High.
 Daily R1   35,036.65   92.52   
 Daily R2   35,151.41   114.77   
 Weekly R1   35,350.01   198.60   
 Weekly R2   35,778.14   428.13   
 Monthly R1   36,003.18   225.04   
 Monthly R2   37,084.49   1,081.30   


Monday 4/4/22. Market Monday: The Week Ahead

My Prediction

Picture of the Dow transports on the daily scale.

I show the Dow transports on the daily scale.

At AB we see a potential double bottom never confirmed as valid. That means the index didn’t close above the horizontal red line, C.

After the potential double bottom, a head-and-shoulders bottom appears. I show that as LS (left shoulder), head, and right shoulder (RS).

What happens now? At D, we see the index throwing back to the breakout price. That happens at D.

It the head-and-shoulders bottom performs as the average HSB, it suggests price will rise 75% of the time after the throwback. So that’s what I see happening.

Top

A Brief Look Back

Picture of a tank from my garden.

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

Monday: Up 94.65 points.

Tuesday: Up 338.3 points.

Wednesday: Down 65.38 points.

Thursday: Down 550.46 points.

Friday: Up 139.92 points.

For the Week…

The Dow industrials were down 42.97 points or 0.1%.

The Nasdaq composite was up 92.2 points or 0.7%.

The S&P 500 index was up 2.8 points or 0.1%.

Year to Date…

Dow Industrials

     5.8% down from the high of 36,952.65 on 01/05/2022.

     7.9% up from the low of 32,272.64 on 02/24/2022.

Nasdaq

     10.0% down from the high of 15,852.14 on 01/04/2022.

     13.6% up from the low of 12,555.35 on 03/14/2022.

S&P 500

     5.7% down from the high of 4,818.62 on 01/04/2022.

     10.5% up from the low of 4,114.65 on 02/24/2022.

Options Expiration

No options expire this week.

Top

Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, “Take a
two-dimensional approach.” He offers these tips.

Index S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2
Dow Industrials (^DJI): Daily   34,425   34,622   34,735   34,931   35,044 
Weekly   34,076   34,447   34,910   35,281   35,744 
Monthly   31,463   33,141   34,256   35,934   37,050 
S&P500 (^GSPC): Daily   4,493   4,519   4,534   4,561   4,575 
Weekly   4,434   4,490   4,564   4,620   4,693 
Monthly   3,968   4,257   4,447   4,736   4,926 
Nasdaq (^IXIC): Daily   14,058   14,160   14,233   14,335   14,409 
Weekly   13,791   14,026   14,337   14,572   14,882 
Monthly   11,730   12,996   13,821   15,087   15,913 
  • Seekinger doesn’t look at the range of S2 to R2 as support and resistance levels. Rather, he considers them oversold (S) and overbought (R) areas.
  • S2 to R2 range of values across daily, weekly, and monthly periods: If two values are close together then they lend more significance to the area.
  • If the market trends on day 1, the odds rise tremendously that the market will be range bound between daily S1 and daily R1 the next day.
  • In a quiet market when traders are waiting for an important earnings announcement or economic report, look for daily R1 and S1 levels to hold and for the market to return to the daily pivot.
  • A move outside of daily R1 or S1 usually does not mean a breakout.
  • The odds suggest that the entire week’s price action will remain between weekly R2 and S2.
  • Avoid going long when the market moves above weekly R2 (it’s overbought) and avoid going short when price moves below weekly S2 (oversold).
  • Consider going short at weekly R1 or long at weekly S1 with a profit objective of the weekly pivot.
  • Consider going long at weekly S2 or short at weekly R2 with a profit objective of weekly S1 or R1, respectively.

Here are the formulas:

Pivot point: P = (H + L + C)/3

First resistance level: R1 = (2 * P) – L

First support level: S1 = (2 * P) – H)

Second resistance level: R2 = P + (R1 – S1)

Second support level: S2 = P – (R1 – S1)

H = high price , L=low price, C=closing price

Top

Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season will be starting in about 12 days.

Here’s a symbol list of 107 chart and candlestick patterns (13 “investment grade” candle patterns) found in today’s securities using my version of Patternz:
ANF, ADTN, AMD, ALRM, AEP, AEL, ARCB, AVNT, AVA, BBY, BIG, BKH, BA, BAH, CVX, CMCO, CMTL, CRH, DVN, D, DTE, WIRE, EPAM, XOM, FDS, FICO, FE, FRD, GPS, GD, GGG, GFF, HBI, HAYN, HSIC, HOV, HUBG, IDA, IDXX, NSP, ITGR, IPAR, IBKR, TILE, IVC, JBLU, KSS, LANC, LDOS, LOW, MU, NJR, NEU, NEE, NXGN, NOC, OMI, POR, PPG, PHM, KWR, RGS, RCKY, RES, SLB, SEE, SIGI, SWX, TPR, TGT, TPX, TEVA, TXN, TKR, TJX, VEEV, VRSN, VC, WSM, IYE, FXI, IGE, IEO, EWO, EWK, EWZ, EEM, EWQ, EWG, EWH, EIS, EWM, EPP, EWP, EWD, EWT, DBA, IEV, IXC, ILF, XLE, XLU. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

The below industries were the best (rank 1) or worst performing of those I follow.

This Week Last Week
1. Petroleum (Producing) 1. Petroleum (Producing)
2. Oilfield Svcs/Equipment 2. Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
3. Petroleum (Integrated) 3. Petroleum (Integrated)
4. Natural Gas (Diversified) 4. Natural Gas (Diversified)
5. Natural Gas (Distributor) 5. Natural Gas (Distributor)
6. Metals and Mining (Div.) 6. Metals and Mining (Div.)
7. Electric Utility (West) 7. Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
8. Insurance (Prop/Casualty) 8. Aerospace/Defense
9. Electric Utility (Central) 9. Food Processing
10. Food Processing 10. Electric Utility (West)
Best Performing Above Worst Performing Below
50. Biotechnology 50. Computers and Peripherals
51. Computers and Peripherals 51. Computer Software and Svcs
52. Apparel 52. Financial Services
53. Financial Services 53. Biotechnology
54. Medical Supplies 54. Medical Supplies
55. Healthcare Information 55. E-Commerce
56. Retail (Special Lines) 56. Retail (Special Lines)
57. E-Commerce 57. Homebuilding
58. Homebuilding 58. Healthcare Information
59. Shoe 59. Short ETFs
60. Short ETFs 60. Shoe

— Thomas Bulkowski

Top


Friday 4/1/22. 2022 Forecast Update

$ $ $

Here’s a symbol list of 104 chart and candlestick patterns (13 “investment grade” candle patterns) found in today’s securities using my version of Patternz:
ACIW, AKAM, ALL, AEO, AEP, AMGN, ACGL, AVNT, BCPC, BLL, BECN, BZH, BIIB, BA, CBT, CE, CF, CINF, CTXS, CNA, CMCO, CMTL, CRH, CCK, DVN, DFS, ^DJT, D, DRQ, EXP, WIRE, RE, EXC, FFIV, FDS, FE, FRD, EVRG, GFF, HE, HTLD, HOV, INTC, ISRG, JNJ, KSS, LZB, LEG, LOW, MHO, MSFT, MLI, NTAP, NWL, NXGN, NI, NWPX, ORI, OMI, OXM, PKE, PATK, PYPL, POR, PINC, PHM, RGS, RCKY, RES, SIGI, SO, LUV, SRDX, TPX, TEVA, TXN, TJX, TOL, TSCO, TRV, TG, UGI, VEEV, VMC, WSM, IYK, THD, TUR, DBA, PJP, UNG. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

Here’s the updated 2022 forecast, presented in slider format.

Based on sector performance from Fidelity, the best performing sectors for year-to-date performance as of 30 March 2022 were…
(The numbering is how they ranked a month ago.)

1. Energy (+57%)

2. Real estate (23%)

6. Information technology (22%)

5. Health care (18%)

7. Utilities (16%)

4. Financials (15%)

10. Consumer discretionary (13%)

3. Consumer staples (12%)

8. Materials (12%)

9. Industrials (6%)

11. Communication services (0.6%)

The folks at two firms polled by Fidelity weigh the sectors in this order, as of 3/26/22.

1. Information technology (IT)

2. Health care

3. Consumer discretionary

4. Financials

5. Communication services

6. Industrials

7. Consumer staples

8. Energy

11. Utilities

9. Real estate

10. Materials

Here’s how they rank the industries, but only the top 10 appear. One-year change, as of 3/30. The numbering is how they ranked a month ago.

New. Automobiles (+64%)

5. Energy equipment and services (+63%)

9. Construction and engineering (+57%)

1. Oil, gas and consumable fuels (+56%)

3. Metals and mining (52%)

6. Technology hardware, storage, and peripherals (45%)

8. Diversified financial services (+38%)

4. Health care technology (29%)

2. Health care providers and services (+29%)

New. Food and staples retailing (28%)

Top


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Trading Quiz Tuesday…

Blog: August 2022 As of 08/04/2022   Indus: 32,727 -85.68 -0.3%     Trans: 14,479 +52.13 +0.4%     Utils: 1,022 -4.12 -0.4%   ...

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