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Trading Quiz Tuesday…

Blog: August 2022

Bulkowski's Blog: ThePatternSite.com

As of 08/04/2022

  Indus: 32,727 -85.68 -0.3%  

  Trans: 14,479 +52.13 +0.4%  

  Utils: 1,022 -4.12 -0.4%  

  Nasdaq: 12,721 +52.42 +0.4%  

  S&P 500: 4,152 -3.23 -0.1%  

YTD

-9.9%  

-12.1%  

 +4.2%  

-18.7%  

-12.9%  

  Up arrow33,300 or 31,400 by 08/15/2022
  Up arrow15,200 or 13,400 by 08/15/2022
  Up arrow1,040 or 975 by 08/15/2022
  Up arrow12,900 or 11,300 by 08/15/2022
  Up arrow4,200 or 3,900 by 08/15/2022

As of 08/04/2022

  Indus: 32,727 -85.68 -0.3%  

  Trans: 14,479 +52.13 +0.4%  

  Utils: 1,022 -4.12 -0.4%  

  Nasdaq: 12,721 +52.42 +0.4%  

  S&P 500: 4,152 -3.23 -0.1%  

YTD

-9.9%  

-12.1%  

 +4.2%  

-18.7%  

-12.9%  

  Up arrow33,300 or 31,400 by 08/15/2022
  Up arrow15,200 or 13,400 by 08/15/2022
  Up arrow1,040 or 975 by 08/15/2022
  Up arrow12,900 or 11,300 by 08/15/2022
  Up arrow4,200 or 3,900 by 08/15/2022

 


Friday 8/5/22. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

$ $ $

Here’s a symbol list of 131 chart and candlestick patterns (13 “investment grade” candle patterns) found in today’s securities using my version of Patternz:
DDD, AMD, APD, DOX, AMED, ACGL, ATO, BMI, BALL, BSET, BZH, BMRN, BKH, BFH, CALM, CHS, ED, CONN, CLR, CRH, CCRN, CCK, CTS, DHR, DVN, DOV, DTE, DUK, ELV, EMR, WIRE, EPAM, EFX, XOM, EZPW, FDS, FAST, FISV, FLS, FORM, FDP, FRD, GS, HAYN, HSY, HNI, HOLX, HON, HUBG, HURC, ITW, INFN, ITGR, IVC, JNJ, KBAL, LNC, MHO, MRO, MCHX, MLM, MTRN, MDT, MRK, MLI, NBR, NOV, NI, NOC, OTEX, OUT, OXM, PANW, PKE, PRFT, PCG, PPL, PRU, PEG, RLI, SLB, SO, SXI, SUM, SRDX, TDOC, TFX, TEVA, TXT, TKR, TSCO, RIG, SLCA, VFC, VLO, VMC, WERN, XEL, ITA, IEZ, IHE, IHF, IEO, EWO, EWZ, EEM, EWQ, EWG, EIS, EWI, EWS, EWD, THD, TUR, IBB, PBE, PXJ, IEV, GLD, XLV. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

The following patterns were found manually, not using Patternz. Mr. Bulkowski has excluded any securities he owns from appearing in the list. However, he may add any of the securities listed to his portfolio at any time, just as you can.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

For details about the chart patterns, click here.

— Thomas Bulkowski

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 Symbol  Chart Pattern  Bullish 
 Bearish 
Start End Industry
AXDX Flag, high and tight        06/13/2022 08/04/2022 Medical Services
AES Head-and-shoulders bottom        05/12/2022 07/15/2022 Electric Utility (East)
AKAM Double Bottom, Eve and Adam        06/14/2022 07/14/2022 E-Commerce
APA Pipe bottom        07/05/2022 07/11/2022 Petroleum (Producing)
BALL Dead-cat bounce        08/04/2022 08/04/2022 Packaging and Container
BIO Head-and-shoulders bottom        05/12/2022 07/14/2022 Medical Supplies
BMRN Double Bottom, Eve and Adam        07/20/2022 08/01/2022 Biotechnology
CBT Three Rising Valleys        06/17/2022 07/14/2022 Chemical (Diversified)
ED Head-and-shoulders bottom        05/02/2022 07/21/2022 Electric Utility (East)
CR Three Rising Valleys        06/17/2022 07/14/2022 Diversified Co.
CW Pipe bottom        06/13/2022 06/21/2022 Machinery
^DJU Diamond top        08/01/2022 08/04/2022 None
EIX Pipe bottom        06/21/2022 06/21/2022 Electric Utility (West)
FDX Head-and-shoulders bottom        07/01/2022 07/26/2022 Air Transport
FIVN Head-and-shoulders bottom        05/25/2022 07/13/2022 Computer Software and Svcs
FTNT Triple top        07/12/2022 08/03/2022 Computer Software and Svcs
GD Double Bottom, Adam and Eve        06/17/2022 07/14/2022 Aerospace/Defense
HURC Pipe top        07/18/2022 07/25/2022 Machinery
INFN Dead-cat bounce        08/03/2022 08/03/2022 Telecom. Equipment
JAZZ Double Top, Adam and Adam        07/07/2022 07/28/2022 Biotechnology
KFRC Pipe bottom        06/13/2022 06/21/2022 Human Resources
LLY Head-and-shoulders top        07/08/2022 07/28/2022 Drug
MTSI Head-and-shoulders bottom        06/16/2022 07/13/2022 Semiconductor
MGEE Double Bottom, Eve and Adam        06/16/2022 07/21/2022 Electric Utility (Central)
MLKN Pipe bottom        06/27/2022 07/05/2022 Furn/Home Furnishings
NCR Ugly double bottom        07/14/2022 07/26/2022 IT Services
NJR Pipe bottom        06/13/2022 06/21/2022 Natural Gas (Distributor)
OUT Double Bottom, Eve and Eve        06/16/2022 07/14/2022 Advertising
OXM Double Bottom, Adam and Adam        06/16/2022 07/14/2022 Apparel
PPG Pipe bottom        06/13/2022 06/21/2022 Chemical (Diversified)
PPL Ugly double bottom        06/17/2022 07/05/2022 Electric Utility (East)
PRU Double Bottom, Adam and Adam        06/17/2022 07/14/2022 Insurance (Life)
RMBS Diamond bottom        06/17/2022 07/13/2022 Semiconductor Cap Equip.
RCKY Dead-cat bounce        08/03/2022 08/03/2022 Shoe
SNPS Three Rising Valleys        05/12/2022 07/14/2022 Computer Software and Svcs
TPR Triangle, symmetrical        07/22/2022 08/04/2022 Apparel
TER Diamond bottom        06/16/2022 07/13/2022 Semiconductor Cap Equip.
UPS Three Rising Valleys        05/19/2022 07/14/2022 Air Transport
WWW Triangle, symmetrical        03/29/2022 07/21/2022 Shoe
WDAY Double Bottom, Eve and Adam        06/23/2022 07/13/2022 Computer Software and Svcs
XEL Ugly double bottom        06/17/2022 07/21/2022 Electric Utility (West)

 

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Thursday 8/4/22. Cryptocurrency Update: Bitcoin BTC-USD

The Nasdaq climbed by 2.6% or 319.4 points. Since 02/05/1971 the Nasdaq made 30 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day’s…

     Average gain was 0.9% on 18 occasions.

     Average loss was -1.5% on 12 occasions.

Expect the Nasdaq to close higher 60.0% of the time.

Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:

     The prediction of the Nasdaq closing higher has been right 243/428 or 56.8% of the time.

     The prediction of the Nasdaq closing lower has been right 64/135 or 47.4% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the bitcoin.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5-minute scale.

Bottoms A and B highlight what I call an ugly double bottom. That’s when the second bottom (B) is significantly above the first bottom (A). It confirms as a valid bottom reversal at C.
That’s when the coin closes above the top of the double bottom. The coin has struggle to move higher since C but it remains above the red confirmation line.

I drew two green lines showing the trend of the coin. Notice that it curves upward. That slope suggests strength, that the value of the coin will continue higher.

$ $ $

Here’s a symbol list of 121 chart and candlestick patterns (13 “investment grade” candle patterns) found in today’s securities using my version of Patternz:
AYX, AEP, AXP, ABC, AMGN, ANIK, AIZ, BMI, BALL, BAX, BFH, BG, CHS, CSCO, CGNX, CL, CMCO, CLR, CRH, CROX, CSGS, CTS, DSGR, D, DOV, DUK, EBAY, EMR, WIRE, EOG, EVH, FAST, FIS, FISV, FIVN, FDP, FRD, GL, HAYN, HQY, HP, HSIC, HNI, HON, HOV, HURC, ITW, ILMN, INFN, IIIN, NVTA, JAZZ, KMT, KFRC, LDOS, MTRN, MGEE, MUR, NBR, NOV, NTGR, JWN, OXY, OLN, OTEX, PANW, PYPL, PPL, PRU, RNG, RLI, RCKY, CRM, SLB, SEE, SO, SR, SXI, SRDX, TFX, TKR, RIG, TG, UNM, VFC, VLO, VEEV, V, WAT, WMB, XEL, IEZ, IHF, IGE, IEO, EWO, ECH, EWQ, EIS, EWS, EZA, EWP, IBB, DBA, PBE, PXJ, PJP, UNG. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day’s high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences),
the area might act as support or resistance.

— Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2022 ThePatternSite.com    Metric   Value   Diff   Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2   10,405.23      
 Weekly S2   11,316.37   911.15   
 Monthly S1   11,536.69   220.32   
 Monthly Pivot   11,981.48   444.78   
 Weekly S1   11,992.27   10.79   Yes! The Weekly S1 is close to the Monthly Pivot.
 Weekly Pivot   12,209.26   217.00   
 Daily S2   12,323.24   113.98   
 Low   12,425.21   101.97   
 Open   12,433.87   8.66   Yes! The Open is close to the Low.
 Daily S1   12,495.70   61.83   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High   12,530.04   34.34   
 50% Down from Intraday High   12,562.42   32.38   
 38.2% Down from Intraday High   12,594.81   32.38   
 Daily Pivot   12,597.67   2.86   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High.
 Close   12,668.16   70.49   
 High   12,699.64   31.48   
 Daily R1   12,770.13   70.49   
 Daily R2   12,872.10   101.97   
 Weekly R1   12,885.16   13.06   Yes! The Weekly R1 is close to the Daily R2.
 Weekly R2   13,102.15   217.00   
 Monthly R1   13,112.94   10.79   Yes! The Monthly R1 is close to the Weekly R2.
 Monthly R2   13,557.73   444.78   


Wednesday 8/3/22. A Look At Indicators

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

I mentioned in the first pic of the updated forecast that the index looked as if it might retrace (according to the CPI line). We see that today.

The indicator turned bearish as demonstrated by the vertical red line on the far right of the chart. I don’t expect this to be a reversal, just a retrace of a few days to a week or so duration. But, it’s a bearish signal.

Picture of the percent down indicators

The red line is the percentage of stocks at least 20% below their 1-year high (plotted upside down). The blue line is the average percentage drop of stocks below their 1-year high (plotted upside down).

Shown as a red line on the above chart…

On Tuesday, 59% of stocks in my database are in bear market territory (down at least 20% from their 1-year high).

A week ago, it was 64%.

The fewest was 19% on 08/11/2021.

And the most was 79% on 06/17/2022.

Shown as a blue line on the above chart…

The 453 stocks in my database are down an average of 26% from their yearly high.

A week ago, the average was 28%.

The peak was 12% on 08/11/2021.

And the bottom was 33% on 06/16/2022.

Both lines show improvement from a week ago. But if the above CPI chart is correct, then look for market weakness.

As I mentioned, I expect the market to retrace here, but it could zoom higher on good news or slump on bad news. Which will happen?

$ $ $

Here’s a symbol list of 114 chart and candlestick patterns (13 “investment grade” candle patterns) found in today’s securities using my version of Patternz:
AXDX, AYI, AFL, ATSG, ALB, ALKS, ALL, AMWD, ABC, ANIK, AIZ, AZTA, BKNG, BRC, BFH, CACI, CPB, CE, CLS, CNP, CENX, CHKP, CHD, CSCO, CLNE, CNA, CNO, CMCO, CTS, DSGR, DOV, DTE, DUK, EMR, WIRE, EQT, EZPW, FDP, IT, EVRG, THG, HAYN, HP, HNI, HON, HURC, IDA, ITW, INCY, INFN, NSP, IIIN, IPAR, ISRG, IVC, JBLU, K, KMT, LDOS, L, M, MNDT, MRO, MTRN, MTRX, MOS, MYGN, NFG, NJR, NWL, NUS, OXY, ASGN, OXM, PANW, PETS, PFE, POR, KWR, ROST, SAIC, SO, SR, SXI, SRDX, TFX, TKR, RIG, TG, VFC, WU, WLK, WMB, XEL, EWK, ECH, EWH, GLD, XHB. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

— Thomas Bulkowski

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Tuesday 8/2/22. 2022 Forecast Update

The Dow dropped by -0.1% or -46.73 points. Since 10/01/1928 the Dow made 1367 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day’s…

     Average gain was 0.6% on 714 occasions.

     Average loss was -0.7% on 653 occasions.

Expect the Dow to close higher 52.2% of the time.

Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:

     The prediction of the Dow closing higher has been right 249/445 or 56.0% of the time.

     The prediction of the Dow closing lower has been right 47/98 or 48.0% of the time.

$ $ $

Here’s the updated 2022 forecast, presented in slider format.

Based on sector performance from Fidelity, the best performing sectors for year-to-date performance as of 1 August 2022 were…
(The numbering is how they ranked a month ago.)

1. Energy (+42%)

2. Utilities (3%)

3. Consumer staples (-4%)

4. Health care (-6%)

5. Industrials (-10%)

6. Materials (-14%)

7. Financials (-14%)

8. Real estate (-15%)

9. Information technology (-17%)

11. Consumer discretionary (-20%)

10. Communication services (-28%)

The folks at two firms polled by Fidelity weigh the sectors in this order, as of 8/1/22.

1. Information technology (IT)

2. Health care

3. Consumer discretionary

4. Financials

5. Communication services

6. Industrials

7. Consumer staples

8. Energy

9. Utilities

10. Real estate

11. Materials

Here’s how they rank the industries, but only the top 10 appear. One-year change, as of 7/29. The numbering is how they ranked a month ago.

2. Oil, gas and consumable fuels (+62%)

1. Construction and engineering (+55%)

3. Energy equipment and services (+27%)

New. Automobiles (+27%)

4. Health care providers and services (+22%)

6. Multi-utilities (+15%)

10. Food products (13%)

7. Beverages (+12%)

New. Technology hardware, and storage (11%)

New. Electric utilities (11%)

$ $ $

Here’s a symbol list of 98 chart and candlestick patterns (13 “investment grade” candle patterns) found in today’s securities using my version of Patternz:
DDD, APD, ALKS, DOX, AMWD, ANIK, BBBY, BIO, BMRN, BA, BAH, BRC, BLDR, CALM, CHKP, CTXS, CNA, CL, CSGS, CTS, DDS, ^DJT, DOV, DUK, EMR, WIRE, EVH, EZPW, FIS, FMC, FDP, GILD, THG, HAYN, HNI, HON, ITW, NSP, IBP, IVC, KBAL, KMB, LANC, LDOS, LEN, LLY, LMT, MTSI, MTRN, MTRX, MDT, NCR, NTGR, NTAP, NEE, NUS, ASGN, OMI, OXM, PFE, POR, KWR, RGS, ROST, SMTC, SHW, SKX, SWX, SXI, SSYS, SUM, TPR, TGT, TECH, TEVA, TMO, TKR, VFC, WAT, WWW, XEL, ITA, IYK, SLV, EWJ, EWL, TUR, XLP, XLU. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day’s high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences),
the area might act as support or resistance.

— Thomas Bulkowski

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Monday 8/1/22. Market Monday: The Week Ahead

My Prediction

Picture of the S and P 500 on the daily scale.

I show the S&P 500 index on the daily scale.

The index soared through a down-sloping trendline, shows here as a red straight line.

At AB, the index formed an ugly double bottom. It confirmed at C when the index closed above the peak between the two lows.

How high will the index climb? My guess is to the level of the circled area at D. The index has made a strong push higher and at D there’s a knot of resistance. That combination suggests the index will
hit that resistance and drop.

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A Brief Look Back

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

Monday: Up 90.75 points.

Tuesday: Down 228.5 points.

Wednesday: Up 436.05 points.

Thursday: Up 332.04 points.

Friday: Up 315.5 points.

For the Week…

The Dow industrials were up 945.84 points or 3.0%.

The Nasdaq composite was up 556.58 points or 4.7%.

The S&P 500 index was up 168.66 points or 4.3%.

Year to Date…

Dow Industrials

     11.1% down from the high of 36,952.65 on 01/05/2022.

     10.8% up from the low of 29,653.29 on 06/17/2022.

Nasdaq

     21.8% down from the high of 15,852.14 on 01/04/2022.

     17.3% up from the low of 10,565.14 on 06/16/2022.

S&P 500

     14.3% down from the high of 4,818.62 on 01/04/2022.

     13.6% up from the low of 3,636.87 on 06/17/2022.

Options Expiration

No options expire this week.

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Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, “Take a
two-dimensional approach.” He offers these tips.

Index S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2
Dow Industrials (^DJI): Daily   32,332   32,589   32,749   33,006   33,167 
Weekly   31,282   32,064   32,487   33,268   33,692 
Monthly   29,200   31,023   31,966   33,789   34,733 
S&P500 (^GSPC): Daily   4,056   4,093   4,117   4,154   4,177 
Weekly   3,831   3,981   4,060   4,210   4,290 
Monthly   3,579   3,855   3,997   4,273   4,416 
Nasdaq (^IXIC): Daily   12,088   12,239   12,333   12,484   12,578 
Weekly   11,224   11,807   12,117   12,700   13,010 
Monthly   10,313   11,352   11,889   12,928   13,465 
  • Seekinger doesn’t look at the range of S2 to R2 as support and resistance levels. Rather, he considers them oversold (S) and overbought (R) areas.
  • S2 to R2 range of values across daily, weekly, and monthly periods: If two values are close together then they lend more significance to the area.
  • If the market trends on day 1, the odds rise tremendously that the market will be range bound between daily S1 and daily R1 the next day.
  • In a quiet market when traders are waiting for an important earnings announcement or economic report, look for daily R1 and S1 levels to hold and for the market to return to the daily pivot.
  • A move outside of daily R1 or S1 usually does not mean a breakout.
  • The odds suggest that the entire week’s price action will remain between weekly R2 and S2.
  • Avoid going long when the market moves above weekly R2 (it’s overbought) and avoid going short when price moves below weekly S2 (oversold).
  • Consider going short at weekly R1 or long at weekly S1 with a profit objective of the weekly pivot.
  • Consider going long at weekly S2 or short at weekly R2 with a profit objective of weekly S1 or R1, respectively.

Here are the formulas:

Pivot point: P = (H + L + C)/3

First resistance level: R1 = (2 * P) – L

First support level: S1 = (2 * P) – H)

Second resistance level: R2 = P + (R1 – S1)

Second support level: S2 = P – (R1 – S1)

H = high price , L=low price, C=closing price

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Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season is either underway or should be starting soon. The sessions could be more volatile.

Here’s a symbol list of 134 chart and candlestick patterns (13 “investment grade” candle patterns) found in today’s securities using my version of Patternz:
DDD, ACN, APD, AMZN, DOX, AEL, AMN, AON, AAPL, ARW, ADP, BMI, BCPC, BSET, BAX, BECN, BERY, BIO, BMRN, BAH, BBW, BLDR, CALM, CNC, CVX, CHS, CINF, CTXS, CNO, CGNX, CMTL, COP, CCRN, CSGS, CTS, DOV, DTE, DUK, EMN, EBAY, EIX, EMR, WIRE, EVH, XOM, EZPW, FICO, FIVN, GNW, GILD, HLIT, HIG, HAYN, HSY, HON, ITW, TILE, IPG, IVC, JAZZ, KLIC, LLY, MTSI, MRTN, MLM, MTRN, MTRX, MUR, NBR, ^IXIC, NOV, OGE, ORI, ASGN, PTEN, PRFT, PLXS, POR, PRU, KWR, DGX, RMBS, RNG, RLI, ^GSPC, SAIC, SEIC, SO, SXI, SUM, TECH, TMO, TKR, RIG, TRV, SLCA, UPS, VFC, VRTX, VMC, WAT, XEL, IYM, IYC, IYE, FXI, IGE, IYF, EWO, ECH, EWQ, EWG, EWI, EWD, TUR, PJP, IEV, IXC, MXI, XLY, XLE, XLF, XLB, VAW, MGK. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

The below industries were the best (rank 1) or worst performing of those I follow.

This Week Last Week
1. Petroleum (Producing) 1. Petroleum (Producing)
2. Natural Gas (Diversified) 2. Natural Gas (Diversified)
3. Petroleum (Integrated) 3. Petroleum (Integrated)
4. Oilfield Svcs/Equipment 4. Natural Gas (Distributor)
5. Natural Gas (Distributor) 5. Short ETFs
6. Precision Instrument 6. Electric Utility (Central)
7. Electric Utility (Central) 7. Insurance (Diversified)
8. Electric Utility (West) 8. Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
9. Insurance (Diversified) 9. Electric Utility (West)
10. Aerospace/Defense 10. Food Processing
Best Performing Above Worst Performing Below
50. Chemical (Basic) 50. Investment Co. (Foreign)
51. Investment Co. (Foreign) 51. Cement and Aggregates
52. Shoe 52. Semiconductor
53. Retail (Special Lines) 53. Homebuilding
54. Diversified Co. 54. Semiconductor Cap Equip.
55. Computers and Peripherals 55. Toiletries/Cosmetics
56. Homebuilding 56. Diversified Co.
57. Apparel 57. Computers and Peripherals
58. Toiletries/Cosmetics 58. E-Commerce
59. Internet 59. Retail (Special Lines)
60. E-Commerce 60. Internet

— Thomas Bulkowski

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Intraday Market Direction Thursday: Nasdaq Higher…

Blog: May 2022 As of 05/09/2022   Indus: 32,246 -653.67 -2.0%     Trans: 14,470 -430.49 -2.9%     Utils: 998 -9.11 -0.9%   ...

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