Intraday Market Direction Thursday: Nasdaq Lower…

Tuesday 6/7/22. Slider Trading Quiz!

Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:

     The prediction of the Dow closing higher has been right 247/439 or 56.3% of the time.

     The prediction of the Dow closing lower has been right 47/97 or 48.5% of the time.

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I show another slider trading quiz featuring SJW (symbol: SJW) stock.

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Here’s a symbol list of 118 chart and candlestick patterns (13 “investment grade” candle patterns) found in today’s securities using my version of Patternz:
AMD, AES, APD, ALK, AYX, AMZN, AIG, ATR, ARCB, AWI, AGO, ADSK, AVY, BSET, BZH, BBY, BIIB, BAH, BLDR, CACI, CALM, CE, CRL, CHS, CHD, CAG, GLW, COST, CCK, CSGS, DDS, DSGR, ^DJT, BOOM, EXP, EBAY, WIRE, EFX, EXPD, FFIV, FLEX, FDP, GME, GNW, GOOGL, GPRO, HQY, DHI, HOV, JBHT, NSP, IVC, JAZZ, KBH, LZB, LMT, LOW, MHO, M, MCHX, MDC, MLKN, MLI, NTAP, NJR, NWL, NEE, JWN, NOC, OMCL, PKG, PATK, KWR, RGA, ROK, ROG, ROST, SAIA, SAIC, SMG, SMTC, SWX, TOL, TSCO, TZOO, TG, UPS, VRTX, WSM, WWW, IYC, FXI, EWZ, EWH, EWI, EWP, IBB, DBA, PBE, PEJ, PXJ, PJP, PHO, ILF, XLY, XRT, UNG, VIS. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

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The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day’s high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences),
the area might act as support or resistance.

— Thomas Bulkowski

Monday 6/6/22. Market Monday: The Week Ahead

My Prediction

At ABC, the index formed a triple bottom. The index confirmed the pattern as a valid one when it closed above the red line D. Price coasted up to G before dropping.

If you measure the height of the pattern from C (lowest bottom) to D and add it to D, it falls short of the expected target at G.

At EF, a double bottom appears and confirmed when price gapped up on the way to H.

Will the index continue higher this week?

My guess? Yes, it will. The knot it just formed should pose a support/resistance area should price return to it. Of course, the index is still within
the knot now. I’m expecting it to soar out of the knot this week.

A Brief Look Back

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

Tuesday: Down 222.84 points.

Wednesday: Down 176.89 points.

Thursday: Up 435.05 points.

Friday: Down 348.58 points.

Saturday: Holiday or other weird event!

For the Week…

The Dow industrials were down 313.26 points or 0.9%.

The Nasdaq composite was down 118.4 points or 1.0%.

The S&P 500 index was down 49.7 points or 1.2%.

Year to Date…

Dow Industrials

     11.0% down from the high of 36,952.65 on 01/05/2022.

     7.4% up from the low of 30,635.76 on 05/20/2022.

Nasdaq

     24.2% down from the high of 15,852.14 on 01/04/2022.

     8.9% up from the low of 11,035.69 on 05/20/2022.

S&P 500

     14.7% down from the high of 4,818.62 on 01/04/2022.

     7.8% up from the low of 3,810.32 on 05/20/2022.

Options Expiration

No options expire this week.

Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, “Take a
two-dimensional approach.” He offers these tips.

• Seekinger doesn’t look at the range of S2 to R2 as support and resistance levels. Rather, he considers them oversold (S) and overbought (R) areas.
• S2 to R2 range of values across daily, weekly, and monthly periods: If two values are close together then they lend more significance to the area.
• If the market trends on day 1, the odds rise tremendously that the market will be range bound between daily S1 and daily R1 the next day.
• In a quiet market when traders are waiting for an important earnings announcement or economic report, look for daily R1 and S1 levels to hold and for the market to return to the daily pivot.
• A move outside of daily R1 or S1 usually does not mean a breakout.
• The odds suggest that the entire week’s price action will remain between weekly R2 and S2.
• Avoid going long when the market moves above weekly R2 (it’s overbought) and avoid going short when price moves below weekly S2 (oversold).
• Consider going short at weekly R1 or long at weekly S1 with a profit objective of the weekly pivot.
• Consider going long at weekly S2 or short at weekly R2 with a profit objective of weekly S1 or R1, respectively.

Here are the formulas:

Pivot point: P = (H + L + C)/3

First resistance level: R1 = (2 * P) – L

First support level: S1 = (2 * P) – H)

Second resistance level: R2 = P + (R1 – S1)

Second support level: S2 = P – (R1 – S1)

H = high price , L=low price, C=closing price

Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season is over.

Here’s a symbol list of 85 chart and candlestick patterns (13 “investment grade” candle patterns) found in today’s securities using my version of Patternz:
AXDX, APD, AKAM, ALK, AMZN, AIG, ANIK, ATR, ARCB, ACGL, ADSK, AVY, BSET, BZH, BBY, BLDR, CALM, CRL, CHS, CNO, GLW, COST, DDS, ^DJT, EBAY, EXPD, FFIV, FIS, FORM, FDP, GOOGL, GPRO, HSC, DHI, HOV, JBHT, INFN, NSP, IVC, JAZZ, KBH, LZB, LDOS, LOW, MHO, M, MNDT, MCHX, MDC, MDT, NTAP, NWL, NXGN, JWN, NOC, PKG, KWR, ROST, SAIA, SMG, TOL, TSCO, TZOO, WSM, ZBRA, IYC, IHI, ECH, EWM, PEJ, PXJ, XLY, XRT. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

The below industries were the best (rank 1) or worst performing of those I follow.

— Thomas Bulkowski

Friday 6/3/22. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

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Here’s a symbol list of 154 chart and candlestick patterns (13 “investment grade” candle patterns) found in today’s securities using my version of Patternz:
MMM, ADBE, AEIS, AMD, AFL, APD, ALRM, ALK, ALL, AYX, AMZN, AFG, AIG, AMGN, AON, AAPL, ATR, ARCB, ACGL, AGO, ADSK, AVY, AVA, AXS, BCPC, BSET, BAX, BZH, BBY, BIO, BOOT, BRC, BLDR, CDNS, CALM, CENX, CRL, CHS, CIEN, CLNE, CNO, CONN, GLW, COST, CROX, XRAY, DDS, ^DJT, ^DJI, EBAY, EVH, EXPD, FFIV, FICO, FIS, FCX, FDP, GME, GOOGL, GPRO, HLIT, HQY, HON, DHI, HOV, JBHT, NSP, IPAR, IVC, JAZZ, JNJ, KBH, KFRC, KLAC, LZB, RAMP, LOW, MHO, M, MNDT, MANH, MDC, FB, MU, ^IXIC, NFLX, NTAP, NJR, NWL, JWN, NUS, NVDA, ORI, ASGN, OTEX, PKG, PANW, PYPL, KWR, RNG, ROG, ROST, ^GSPC, SAIA, CRM, SMG, NOW, SCCO, SNPS, TDOC, TER, TMO, TOL, TSCO, TZOO, VEEV, WU, WSM, WWW, ZBRA, IYC, FTEC, FDN, QTEC, FXL, QQQ, IAT, IGV, SOXX, SLV, EWK, EWC, ECH, EWQ, EWG, EIS, QLD, PEJ, IXN, SSO, XLY, GLD, XLB, XRT, SPY, XLK, UNG, SMH, MGK. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

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You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

The following patterns were found manually, not using Patternz. Mr. Bulkowski has excluded any securities he owns from appearing in the list. However, he may add any of the securities listed to his portfolio at any time, just as you can.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

For details about the chart patterns, click here.

— Thomas Bulkowski

Thursday 6/2/22. Intraday Market Direction: Nasdaq

Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:

     The prediction of the Nasdaq closing higher has been right 238/421 or 56.5% of the time.

     The prediction of the Nasdaq closing lower has been right 63/133 or 47.4% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

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I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5-minute scale.

The chart pattern shown here isn’t a trendline that I’m focused on, but a bump-and-run reversal top. The lead-in phase is at A. That’s a short and tight
move that follows an up-sloping trendline.

B is the bump phase. It suggests, but does not guarantee, price will head lower and pierce the trendline. The plunge could be substantial, about the height of the bump applied below the
trendline. If that were to happen, it would take the index down to about 11,200.

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Here’s a symbol list of 193 chart and candlestick patterns (13 “investment grade” candle patterns) found in today’s securities using my version of Patternz:
MMM, ABT, ACIW, AFL, ALK, ALL, AMZN, AEO, AIG, ABC, AMGN, AON, ATR, ARCB, ACGL, ADM, AWI, ARW, ADSK, AVY, AVNT, BSET, BAX, BZH, BBY, BKH, BA, BKNG, BLDR, BG, CALM, CF, CRL, CHS, CINF, CTSH, CL, CONN, GLW, COST, COTY, CR, CSGS, DHR, DDS, DSGR, ^DJT, BOOM, EBAY, EL, EXPD, FFIV, FICO, FIS, FDP, FRD, GE, GS, GOOGL, GPRO, GGG, GES, HLIT, HSC, HIG, HE, HAYN, HQY, HELE, HSIC, HNI, HON, DHI, HOV, HUBG, JBHT, NSP, ITGR, INTC, IPAR, IPG, IVC, JKHY, JAZZ, JBLU, KALU, KBH, KELYA, KBAL, KMB, KSS, KLIC, LZB, LEN, LOW, MHO, M, MNDT, MAN, MTRX, MDC, MDT, MU, MCO, MS, NFLX, NTAP, NWL, JWN, ORI, ASGN, PKG, PKE, PTEN, PAYX, PYPL, PETS, PFE, PPL, PG, PEG, PHM, KWR, RGA, REV, RNG, ROG, ROST, SAIA, CRM, SMG, SEE, SEIC, SLGN, SKX, LUV, SRDX, TPR, TFX, TDC, TER, TXN, TKR, TOL, TSCO, TZOO, VFC, WSO, WU, WSM, WWW, IAI, IYC, ITB, DDM, SLV, IHI, EWZ, ECH, EWG, EWM, EWL, THD, EWU, PEJ, PJP, XLY, XLI, XRT, UNG, VIS, MGK. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

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The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day’s high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences),
the area might act as support or resistance.

— Thomas Bulkowski

Wednesday 6/1/22. 2022 Forecast Update

Here’s the updated 2022 forecast, presented in slider format.

Based on sector performance from Fidelity, the best performing sectors for year-to-date performance as of 31 May 2022 were…
(The numbering is how they ranked a month ago.)

1. Energy (+58%)

3. Utilities (5%)

2. Consumer staples (-3%)

4. Materials (-4%)

5. Health care (-5%)

8. Financials (-9%)

7. Industrials (-10%)

6. Real estate (-14%)

9. Information technology (-19%)

11. Communication services (-25%)

10. Consumer discretionary (-25%)

The folks at two firms polled by Fidelity weigh the sectors in this order, as of 5/27/22.

1. Information technology (IT)

2. Health care

4. Financials

3. Consumer discretionary

5. Communication services

6. Industrials

7. Consumer staples

8. Energy

10. Utilities

11. Materials

9. Real estate

Here’s how they rank the industries, but only the top 10 appear. One-year change, as of 5/27. The numbering is how they ranked a month ago.

2. Oil, gas and consumable fuels (+73%)

1. Energy equipment and services (+59%)

9. Construction and engineering (+31%)

7. Pharmaceuticals (+22%)

6. Health care technology (20%)

5. Health care providers and services (+18%)

New. Multi-utilities (+17%)

10. Technology hardware, storage, and peripherals (17%)

New. Electric utilities (16%)

New. Automobiles (13%)

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Here’s a symbol list of 69 chart and candlestick patterns (13 “investment grade” candle patterns) found in today’s securities using my version of Patternz:
ATSG, AA, AYX, AMZN, AEO, ADM, BIIB, CACI, CENX, CRL, CVX, CONN, COTY, FFIV, FDS, FCX, FRD, HP, HOLX, NSP, IBKR, JAZZ, MRO, MGEE, MOS, MYGN, PTEN, REV, RNG, RLI, SAIA, CRM, SLB, SKX, SCCO, TPR, TKR, VFC, VMI, VRTX, WEX, IYC, IEZ, FXI, IHF, EWZ, EWC, ECH, EEM, EWH, EWM, EZA, EWY, EWT, TUR, EWU, DBA, PBE, PXJ, IXC, ILF, MXI, XLY, USO. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

— Thomas Bulkowski