Market Monday: The Week Ahead….

Thursday 3/7/24. Intraday Market Direction: Nasdaq. Bullish

Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:

     The prediction of the Nasdaq closing higher has been right 272/482 or 56.4% of the time.

     The prediction of the Nasdaq closing lower has been right 75/161 or 46.6% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

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I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5-minute scale.

At AB, a double top appears. It confirms as valid when the index closes below the low between peaks A and B. That happens and leads to a large decline.

C is a channel. It’s unusual because it’s long even though price pierces the border a few times.

Green line D is one of support/resistance (depending on which side price is on). I drew it just to see where the Wednesday peak touches or nears the prior price movement. Point E looks to be resting on support formed by the channel. That suggests an upward
move will happen tomorrow (Thursday, but that’s a guess).

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Here’s a symbol list of 145 chart and candlestick patterns (13 “investment grade” candle patterns) found in today’s securities using my version of Patternz:
ADBE, AMD, AFL, A, APD, ALRM, ALB, AMZN, AEO, AEP, AMN, AAPL, ACGL, AVY, AXS, BERY, BAH, BMY, BBW, CX, CENX, CDAY, CF, CRL, CVX, CI, CLF, CNO, CNX, CL, DFS, DSGR, ^DJI, DRQ, EBAY, FLEX, GNW, GFS, GS, GOOGL, GFF, THG, HE, HSII, HSIC, HOV, JBHT, INFN, NSP, IIIN, JAZZ, JBLU, KMB, LAMR, L, MTSI, M, MCHX, MTRX, MLKN, MYGN, ^IXIC, NFLX, NUS, NVDA, OUT, OXM, PAYX, PRFT, PLXS, PRU, PSTG, RL, RNG, RES, ^GSPC, CRM, SAND, SAIC, SEE, SMTC, SLGN, SWX, SRDX, TPR, TGT, RIG, SLCA, UGI, UNM, VC, WPM, WOLF, WWW, IYK, IYC, IYE, DDM, FTEC, QTEC, FXL, QQQ, IEV, IGV, IXC, MXI, IXN, IGE, EWA, EWC, ECH, EWH, EWI, EWJ, EZA, EWY, EWP, EWD, EWT, TUR, EWU, QLD, SSO, ROBO, XLY, XLE, XLF, XRT, SPY, XLK, SMH, MGK, VONG. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

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The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day’s high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences),
the area might act as support or resistance.

— Thomas Bulkowski

Tuesday 3/5/24. Slider Trading Quiz!

Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:

     The prediction of the Dow closing higher has been right 282/513 or 55.0% of the time.

     The prediction of the Dow closing lower has been right 53/112 or 47.3% of the time.

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I show another slider trading quiz featuring ascending triangles.

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Here’s a symbol list of 174 chart and candlestick patterns (13 “investment grade” candle patterns) found in today’s securities using my version of Patternz:
ANF, AMD, AES, A, AMED, AR, APA, AAPL, ATO, AZTA, BZH, BERY, BIO, BKH, BA, BCO, BBW, BG, COR, CF, CIEN, CLNE, CLF, CNA, CNX, CTSH, CL, CMCO, ED, COST, COTY, DHR, DECK, DSGR, ^DJU, DRQ, DUK, EXP, EMN, EME, EVRG, EXPI, FICO, FAST, FE, FLEX, FLS, FTNT, FRD, GME, IT, GILD, GFS, GMS, GFF, HLIT, HL, HSII, HOV, HURC, IDA, IDXX, INFN, NSP, IIIN, INTU, JBLU, K, KELYA, KFRC, KSS, LEN, LLY, LXU, M, MANH, MRO, MLM, MTDR, MTRX, MDC, MU, MS, NKE, NTNX, NVDA, OXY, OGE, OR, OXM, PTEN, PETS, PFE, PNW, PXD, PLXS, POR, PFG, PEG, PSTG, QCOM, RHI, RGLD, RES, R, SAND, SAIC, SEIC, SIGI, SMTC, SKX, SKYW, SCCO, SWN, SSYS, SRDX, SNPS, TPX, TXT, TKR, TDG, TZOO, TREX, SLCA, UPS, UNM, VFC, MDRX, VRSN, WRB, WAT, WU, WDAY, IAI, IYE, IHE, FXL, BOTZ, IAT, IXC, IXN, SLV, IEO, IYF, IHI, ECH, EWY, EWT, TUR, PPA, PEJ, PXJ, PJP, XLF, GLD, XAR, XLU, UNG, USO, SMH, VIS, VAW. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

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The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day’s high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences),
the area might act as support or resistance.

— Thomas Bulkowski

Monday 3/4/24. Market Monday: The Week Ahead

My Prediction

This is a chart of the Nasdaq composite on the weekly scale (not the usual daily).

The red horizontal line near the top of the chart shows overhead resistance setup by the prior peak.

I’d like to suggest that resistance will turn the indicator down. However, the circled knot didn’t impede the upward move at all. I consider that unusual.

I shows a rugged looking cup with handle pattern highlighted in green with a red handle. The index made an nice move afterward.

A Brief Look Back

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

Monday: Down 62.3 points.

Tuesday: Down 96.82 points.

Wednesday: Down 23.39 points.

Thursday: Up 47.37 points.

Friday: Up 90.99 points.

For the Week…

The Dow industrials were down 44.15 points or 0.1%.

The Nasdaq composite was up 278.12 points or 1.7%.

The S&P 500 index was up 48.28 points or 0.9%.

Year to Date…

Dow Industrials

     0.5% down from the high of 39,282.28 on 02/23/2024.

     5.3% up from the low of 37,122.95 on 01/18/2024.

Nasdaq

     0.2% down from the high of 16,302.24 on 03/01/2024.

     12.4% up from the low of 14,477.57 on 01/05/2024.

S&P 500

     0.1% down from the high of 5,140.33 on 03/01/2024.

     9.7% up from the low of 4,682.11 on 01/05/2024.

Options Expiration

No options expire this week.

Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, “Take a
two-dimensional approach.” He offers these tips.

• Seekinger doesn’t look at the range of S2 to R2 as support and resistance levels. Rather, he considers them oversold (S) and overbought (R) areas.
• S2 to R2 range of values across daily, weekly, and monthly periods: If two values are close together then they lend more significance to the area.
• If the market trends on day 1, the odds rise tremendously that the market will be range bound between daily S1 and daily R1 the next day.
• In a quiet market when traders are waiting for an important earnings announcement or economic report, look for daily R1 and S1 levels to hold and for the market to return to the daily pivot.
• A move outside of daily R1 or S1 usually does not mean a breakout.
• The odds suggest that the entire week’s price action will remain between weekly R2 and S2.
• Avoid going long when the market moves above weekly R2 (it’s overbought) and avoid going short when price moves below weekly S2 (oversold).
• Consider going short at weekly R1 or long at weekly S1 with a profit objective of the weekly pivot.
• Consider going long at weekly S2 or short at weekly R2 with a profit objective of weekly S1 or R1, respectively.

Here are the formulas:

Pivot point: P = (H + L + C)/3

First resistance level: R1 = (2 * P) – L

First support level: S1 = (2 * P) – H)

Second resistance level: R2 = P + (R1 – S1)

Second support level: S2 = P – (R1 – S1)

H = high price , L=low price, C=closing price

Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season is over.

Here’s a symbol list of 151 chart and candlestick patterns (13 “investment grade” candle patterns) found in today’s securities using my version of Patternz:
ABT, AXDX, AYI, AMD, A, ALK, AEO, AMWD, AMGN, ANIK, AAPL, AMAT, ADM, ANET, AIZ, BERY, BG, CDNS, CLS, CNP, CF, CRL, CHKP, CVX, CTAS, CAG, COP, CR, FANG, EMN, EBAY, EMR, EG, EVH, EXPI, XOM, FAST, FTNT, GME, IT, GD, GNW, GL, GPRO, GGG, HAYN, HQY, HTLD, HELE, HNI, HD, HON, IDXX, IIIN, JAZZ, JBLU, KEYS, KLAC, LRCX, LANC, LEN, LNC, LMT, LXU, MGY, MANH, MAS, MTDR, MDC, META, MU, MLKN, MCO, MUR, NFLX, NTAP, NJR, NTNX, ORI, OR, PETS, PXD, PEG, RMBS, RLI, ROK, RCKY, R, SAIC, SEIC, SIGI, SMTC, STR, SWN, SPSC, SCS, TRGP, TDY, TMO, TZOO, TG, TWLO, SLCA, UNH, UNM, VFC, MDRX, VC, WRB, WAT, WWD, XEL, IYC, IYE, IHE, DDM, FDN, FXI, IXC, SOXX, IGE, IEO, EWC, ECH, EEM, EWH, EWJ, EZA, EWP, EWD, XLE, GLD, UNG, USO, SMH. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

The below industries were the best (rank 1) or worst performing of those I follow.

— Thomas Bulkowski

Friday 3/1/24. March Market Forecast Update

I’ll be making some appearance changes to the website in the coming days, mostly to the home page. The order of the links won’t change. I’ll be removing the background image and changing some of the colors. This is
courtesy of “A reader.” — Thanks!

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Here’s the updated 2024 market forecast, presented in slider format.

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Here’s a symbol list of 162 chart and candlestick patterns (13 “investment grade” candle patterns) found in today’s securities using my version of Patternz:
MMM, ABT, ABM, ACN, ACIW, AMD, ALK, ALB, ALL, AEE, AEL, APOG, AAPL, AIZ, BSET, BECN, BIO, BKNG, BOOT, BAH, CBT, CPB, CLS, CHKP, CIEN, CTAS, CLF, CL, CR, CRH, CMI, DHR, FANG, DDS, DFS, EBAY, EPAM, EVH, EZPW, FICO, FAST, FDX, FE, FORM, FTV, FDP, IT, GD, GNW, GL, GES, THG, HQY, HTLD, HL, HELE, HP, DHI, IEX, NSP, IIIN, IRM, JAZZ, JBLU, KBH, KMT, LEG, LEN, RAMP, LXU, MHO, M, MANH, MAN, MTRN, MTRX, MGEE, MU, NTAP, NKE, NOC, NWPX, NOVT, NTNX, ORI, OMI, OXM, PKG, PKE, PFE, PINC, PEG, REGN, RLI, RHI, ROL, ROST, R, SBH, SAND, SMG, SEIC, SMTC, SCI, STR, SCCO, SXI, SCS, SSYS, TPX, TDC, TER, TOL, TDG, SLCA, UNH, UNM, VC, WU, WMB, WWD, XEL, IYC, IHE, FDN, FXI, ICF, IYH, IHF, SOXX, EWO, EWK, ECH, EWQ, EWH, EIS, EWM, EZA, EWP, EWD, EWL, THD, PBE, PEJ, XLF, GLD, UNG. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.