Market Monday: The Week Ahead….

Thursday 12/7/23. Intraday Market Direction: Nasdaq

Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:

     The prediction of the Nasdaq closing higher has been right 266/475 or 56.0% of the time.

     The prediction of the Nasdaq closing lower has been right 74/155 or 47.7% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

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I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5-minute scale.

I looked at the peaks and drew a blue line, which marks overhead resistance. The index can blow threw it, of course, or it can bounce off it and head lower like you see in the past.

Underlying support appears in green. I connected common valleys and sliced through the dip on Monday. Notice how the current price touches the green support line. That suggests the index will
bounce higher tomorrow (Thursday). That’s what I think will happen. Price might race to the top of the red channel (or it could continued to drop below the green support line).

It’s interesting that price spiked above the blue line on Wednesday and below the green line on Monday.

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Here’s a symbol list of 166 chart and candlestick patterns (13 “investment grade” candle patterns) found in today’s securities using my version of Patternz:
DDD, MMM, ANF, ADBE, AMD, AES, AFL, AKAM, ALRM, AA, ALKS, AYX, AEO, AIG, AMWD, ANIK, ACGL, ANET, ADSK, AXS, BZH, BMRN, BOOT, BFH, CBT, CDNS, CALM, CPB, CLS, CI, CSCO, CNX, CGNX, CL, CAG, CONN, COP, COST, CR, FANG, DFS, DSGR, ELV, EOG, XOM, EZPW, FICO, FAST, FDX, FIS, FIVN, FTNT, FCX, GME, GIS, GMS, GES, HIG, HD, HON, DHI, INFN, IBP, ITGR, INTC, IPAR, JKHY, KBH, K, KLAC, LH, LRCX, LEG, LEN, RAMP, LMT, LOW, LPLA, MTSI, M, MANH, MAS, MTDR, MTRN, MU, NOV, NFLX, NTAP, NJR, NKE, NWPX, ON, OTEX, PTEN, PYPL, PLXS, PG, PHM, QCOM, RMBS, RRC, REGN, ROG, RGLD, ^GSPC, CRM, SEE, SHW, STR, SKX, SKYW, SCCO, LUV, SWN, SPSC, SRDX, TDC, TXN, TOL, RIG, TRV, SLCA, UIS, WEX, XEL, IYM, ITB, DDM, FDN, QTEC, FXL, BOTZ, ICF, IEV, IGV, IXC, SOXX, IEO, EWO, EWK, EIS, EWI, EWY, EWD, PXJ, SSO, XHB, XLB, SPY, USO, SMH, VONG. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

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The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day’s high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences),
the area might act as support or resistance.

— Thomas Bulkowski

Wednesday 12/6/23. A Look At Indicators

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

The CPI has turned bearish, suggesting the index is going to retrace a portion of its gains. I’ve been expecting this for a few weeks now.

Keep in mind that if the index were to make a big move higher, the bearish signal could disappear. The signal can change for up to a week.

Perhaps the markets are waiting for the FED to meet next week (Dec 12-13). Markets expect no increase in rates, but if they do raise rates, then look out below. If they don’t raise rates,
the markets could still drop, especially if the FED hints of another rate rise next year.

The red line is the percentage of stocks at least 20% below their 1-year high (plotted upside down). The blue line is the average percentage drop of stocks below their 1-year high (plotted upside down).

Both the red and blue lines show improvement from a week ago. Notice how the index has made a new high (on the chart) but the red and blue lines have not risen above the top of the July peak.

It’s not divergence but it’s weird. It makes me wonder if the market breath is as wide as one might expect.

The prior chart is bearish and this one is bullish but it’s a weak bull. I think the downtrend will continue.

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I released version 8.0.0.4 of Patternz today. It has more bug fixes.

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Here’s a symbol list of 128 chart and candlestick patterns (13 “investment grade” candle patterns) found in today’s securities using my version of Patternz:
ALB, ALKS, AMED, AEE, AEO, AEP, AME, APA, AAPL, ARCB, ACGL, ADSK, AVA, BALL, BZH, BKNG, BLDR, CACI, CALM, CAL, CPB, CHS, CI, CINF, CNX, CL, CMCO, COP, CR, CTS, DVN, FANG, DSGR, DTE, BOOM, EME, EOG, XOM, EZPW, FIS, FIVN, FLEX, FWRD, FNV, FDP, GME, GFS, GES, HSII, HSIC, HURC, NSP, ITGR, KALU, KMT, KFRC, KMB, KSS, LH, M, MCHX, MKTX, MRTN, MTDR, MTRN, MTRX, NBR, NFG, NOV, NEE, NKE, NOC, NWPX, OXY, ASGN, OR, OXM, PKE, PTEN, PLXS, PPL, PG, DGX, RRC, RHI, ROG, RES, SIGI, SRE, SHOP, SLGN, STR, SO, SWN, SPLK, TDY, TEVA, TJX, TG, SLCA, VECO, XEL, FTEC, FXI, SLV, EWK, EWH, EIS, PXJ, XLK, XLU, USO, MGK, VONG. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

— Thomas Bulkowski

Tuesday 12/5/23. Slider Trading Quiz!

Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:

     The prediction of the Dow closing higher has been right 277/502 or 55.2% of the time.

     The prediction of the Dow closing lower has been right 52/110 or 47.3% of the time.

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I show another slider trading quiz featuring broadening tops.

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Here’s a symbol list of 106 chart and candlestick patterns (13 “investment grade” candle patterns) found in today’s securities using my version of Patternz:
MMM, ALRM, ALKS, ALGT, ACGL, AWI, ATO, AVA, BCPC, BALL, BIG, BIIB, BOOT, BAH, BSX, BFH, BLDR, CALM, CHKP, CINF, CL, CAG, GLW, CMI, WIRE, EXPD, EZPW, FAST, FDX, FIS, FIVN, FNV, FDP, GFS, GOOGL, HIG, HE, HAYN, HON, HUN, IDXX, INCY, INTC, IBKR, NVTA, JBLU, KMT, KFRC, KMB, KSS, LH, LDOS, LLY, RAMP, L, M, MCHX, MTRN, MRK, MSFT, MLI, NFLX, NJR, NKE, NI, NWPX, NUS, NVDA, OXY, OMCL, ASGN, PCTY, PETS, PLXS, PPL, PRU, QCOM, DGX, RRC, ROK, SAIC, SWX, TFX, TEVA, TG, UIS, VECO, VRTX, WEX, XEL, IHE, FXI, IXC, EWH, EWP, TUR, XHB, UNG. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

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The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day’s high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences),
the area might act as support or resistance.

— Thomas Bulkowski

Tuesday 12/5/23. Slider Trading Quiz!

Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:

     The prediction of the Dow closing higher has been right 277/502 or 55.2% of the time.

     The prediction of the Dow closing lower has been right 52/110 or 47.3% of the time.

$ $ $

I show another slider trading quiz featuring broadening tops.

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Here’s a symbol list of 106 chart and candlestick patterns (13 “investment grade” candle patterns) found in today’s securities using my version of Patternz:
MMM, ALRM, ALKS, ALGT, ACGL, AWI, ATO, AVA, BCPC, BALL, BIG, BIIB, BOOT, BAH, BSX, BFH, BLDR, CALM, CHKP, CINF, CL, CAG, GLW, CMI, WIRE, EXPD, EZPW, FAST, FDX, FIS, FIVN, FNV, FDP, GFS, GOOGL, HIG, HE, HAYN, HON, HUN, IDXX, INCY, INTC, IBKR, NVTA, JBLU, KMT, KFRC, KMB, KSS, LH, LDOS, LLY, RAMP, L, M, MCHX, MTRN, MRK, MSFT, MLI, NFLX, NJR, NKE, NI, NWPX, NUS, NVDA, OXY, OMCL, ASGN, PCTY, PETS, PLXS, PPL, PRU, QCOM, DGX, RRC, ROK, SAIC, SWX, TFX, TEVA, TG, UIS, VECO, VRTX, WEX, XEL, IHE, FXI, IXC, EWH, EWP, TUR, XHB, UNG. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

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The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day’s high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences),
the area might act as support or resistance.

— Thomas Bulkowski

Friday 12/1/23. 2023 Forecast Update

Here’s the updated 2023 forecast, presented in slider format.

The November forecast sent you to the October one. Oops. Here’s the corrected link: November 2023 forecast

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I’ll be releasing another version of Patternz (8.0.0.4) soon to correct a few bugs.

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Here’s a symbol list of 128 chart and candlestick patterns (13 “investment grade” candle patterns) found in today’s securities using my version of Patternz:
DDD, ALRM, AMZN, APH, ACGL, ASH, AIZ, BALL, BIG, BA, BKNG, BMY, BBW, CDNS, CAL, CHD, CNX, CL, CMTL, CONN, CXW, CSGS, CTS, CW, XRAY, DDS, DFS, ^DJI, DTE, EPAM, EG, EXC, EXPD, FICO, FARO, FAST, FDX, FIS, FLEX, FTNT, GME, GNW, GMS, GOOGL, GFF, HBI, HAYN, HP, INFN, IBP, JKHY, KBH, K, KEYS, KMB, KSS, LZB, M, MANH, MKTX, MRTN, MLM, MTRN, MTRX, MGEE, MCO, NFLX, NTNX, OXY, OMI, PDCO, PEN, PETS, PLXS, PG, QTWO, QCOM, RMBS, RRC, RGS, RLI, ROK, RES, CRM, SMG, SIGI, SHW, STR, SWX, SWN, SXI, SNPS, TDOC, TFX, TER, TKR, TZOO, TG, TWLO, VC, WMT, WU, WPM, WMB, WWD, DDM, QTEC, FXL, FXI, BOTZ, IXC, EWK, EWH, EWW, THD, TUR, DBA, PBE, PJP, USO. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

— Thomas Bulkowski