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As of 06/03/2019 Industrials: 24,820 +4.74 +0.0% Transports: 9,760 +21.83 +0.2% Utilities: 792 +7.34 +0.9% Nasdaq: 7,333 -120.13 -1.6% S&P 500: 2,744 -7.61 -0.3% |
YTD +6.4% +6.4% +11.1% +10.5% +9.5% |
 24,400 or 26,200 by 06/15/20199,550 or 10,575 by 06/15/2019 815 or 755 by 06/15/20197,180 or 7,900 by 06/15/20192,680 or 2,880 by 06/15/2019 |
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As of 06/03/2019 Industrials: 24,820 +4.74 +0.0% Transports: 9,760 +21.83 +0.2% Utilities: 792 +7.34 +0.9% Nasdaq: 7,333 -120.13 -1.6% S&P 500: 2,744 -7.61 -0.3% |
YTD +6.4% +6.4% +11.1% +10.5% +9.5% |
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24,400 or 26,200 by 06/15/20199,550 or 10,575 by 06/15/2019815 or 755 by 06/15/20197,180 or 7,900 by 06/15/20192,680 or 2,880 by 06/15/2019 |
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Statistics updated 6/3/2019.
For more information on this pattern, read
Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns
pictured on the right.
If you click on the above link and then buy the book (or anything) while at Amazon.com, the referral will help support this site. Thanks.
— Tom Bulkowski
$ $ $
Rising wedges, especially for downward breakouts, are some of the worst performing chart
patterns. Downward breakouts have unacceptably high failure rates and small post breakout declines. Also, throwbacks and pullbacks
occur 72% of the time.
Rising Wedge: Important Bull Market ResultsOverall performance rank for up/down breakouts (1 is best): Not ranked Break even failure rate for up/down breakouts: 19%; 51% Average rise/decline: 38%; 9% Throwback/pullback rate: 72%, 72% Percentage meeting price target for up/down breakouts: 63%, 32% The above numbers are based on hundreds of perfect trades. See the glossary for definitions. |
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Rising Wedge: Identification Guidelines
| Characteristic | Discussion |
| Price trend | Can be any direction leading to the pattern. |
| Shape | A narrowing and rising triangle shape. |
| Trendlines | Price bounces between two up-sloping and converging trendlines. |
| Touches | Price should touch (at a minor high or minor low) each trendline at least five times to outline a good pattern. That’s 3 touches of one trendline and 2 of the opposite. |
| Duration | 3 weeks is the minimum duration, otherwise it’s a pennant. |
| Volume trend | Trends downward 79% of the time until the breakout. |
| Breakout | Can be in any direction but is downward 60% of the time. |
| Confirmation | The pattern confirms as a valid one when price closes outside one of the trendlines. |
Rising Wedge: Trading Tips
| Trading Tactic | Explanation | 
The Measure Rule |
| Measure rule | For downward breakouts, the lowest valley in the pattern (A) is the price target. Alternatively, compute the height from the highest peak (B) to the lowest valley (A) and then multiply it by the above ‘percentage meeting price target.’ Add it to (upward breakouts) or subtract it from (downward breakouts) the breakout price (the point at which price crosses the trendline, shown in the Measure Rule figure to the right as a blue line for this downward breakout) to get a price target (C). |
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| Breakout | The average distance to an upward breakout is 66% of the way to the triangle apex (where the trendlines join). | |
| Confirmation | Wait for a close outside one of the trendlines before taking a position. | |
| Throwbacks and pullbacks | Throwbacks and pullbacks hurt performance. | |
| Weakness | Upward breakouts may show weakness two weeks after the breakout. | |
| Width | Wide patterns perform better than narrow ones (upward breakouts only). |
Rising Wedge: Example
The above figure shows an example of a rising wedge chart pattern. Each trendline has at least three distinct minor
high or minor low touches, sandwiched between two converging trendlines. The upward breakout from this rising wedge is
unusual because of its rarity. A throwback follows the breakout in this example.
— Thomas Bulkowski
Rising Wedge: Other Examples
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